GameFAQs Contests
SC2k8 Prediction Percentage Challenge (PPC) - Results/Discussion Topic
| Lopen | Posted 9/8/2008 3:17:56 PM | message detail |
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The latest prediction topic can be found here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=45338998 I'll be tracking all results and leaderboards in here... assuming it gets off the ground due to the prediction process being kinda complicated. If people would like me to do prediction the other way in hopes of increased turnout I guess I can lock the other one. *shrug* Let's do this. --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Latest RS&D Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=45247247 |
| _Lagoona_ | Posted 9/9/2008 1:19:55 AM | message detail |
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.I'd say keep this format. *goes to predict* --- .Nobody is perfect, I'm nobody. :-Þ *Blob* |
| Xcarvenger | Posted 9/10/2008 6:33:14 AM | message detail |
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From Lopen Comparing to the example prediction: Since Wario got first place, Wario correct will be compared to 57% (first place %), Wario partial will be compared to 15% (second place %). Since Cecil got second place, Cecil correct will be compared to 25% (second place %), and Cecil partial will be compared to 16% (first place %). Just to make sure, if the stats show: Yoshi 29.96% / 50.91% Knuckles the Echidna 21.34% / 37.78% and my predictions are: Yoshi 29.96% / 50.91% Knuckles the Echidna 37.78% / 21.34% I got 100 points, right? If people like this format, we can stick with it, but would you allow the old formats? Also, can I just predict the two characters who will definitely win? the rule said i must submit 'eight clear predictions per match', but I won't waste a second thinking about percentages for Jade Curtiss! From th3l3fty Actually, it probably had more to do with Xcarv deciding to include a prediction of the number of brackets as a score. A lot of people got burned by that, and gave up really early because of it. Yeah, I thought so. I even gave 200 points for that <_< (well I reverted back to 100 at the end though). It's just too bad I only realized that people didn't want that to be included when we were in the middle of the second round >_> Not only that though, I guess the first division was a giant mess anyway, putting a lot of people off, because we didn't have the format for the first match and the prediction topic was posted ON the day of the first match... But enough about the past, hopefully we can have a successful PPC contest this year! --- Xcarvenger: http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/9123/chocobo34kg4.jpg For all your board 8 needs: www.board8.wikia.com |
| Lopen | Posted 9/10/2008 2:05:25 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, you can go ahead and predict in the old format. I don't see why most would want to, though... this gives you more control over the prediction and makes it less dependent on calling who wins correctly. (say you think Mario takes first in a match he should... you say 50% for first place correct... then Mario gets upset and you didn't think he would, your score takes a big hit as a result) And yes you had it right, you would get 100 points for that prediction. You can also not predict "obvious losers" at your own risk. I would've put that and the old prediction format being allowed but I didn't want to clutter up the rules topic (I should've put "up to eight" though) --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Latest RS&D Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=45247247 |
| Lopen | Posted 9/11/2008 11:05:59 PM | message detail |
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Can't let this purge --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Latest RS&D Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=45247247 |
| LegendaryRaiden | Posted 9/13/2008 12:12:28 PM | message detail |
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Livvveeee --- Did you say nerd? - Raiden Yes, I did. Your hearing is flawless. You heard correctly. Get to the nerd. - Campbell |
| Lopen | Posted 9/14/2008 3:36:20 PM | message detail |
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Love it --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Latest RS&D Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=45247247 |
| Lopen | Posted 9/16/2008 1:24:08 AM | message detail |
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Do not die --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Latest RS&D Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=45247247 |
| Lopen | Posted 9/17/2008 2:16:25 PM | message detail |
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Soon this topic will have content! --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Lopen | Posted 9/18/2008 4:43:41 PM | message detail |
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Very soon! --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Lopen | Posted 9/18/2008 9:30:13 PM | message detail |
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Alright, guys... be sure to look over the scores carefully... I haven't thoroughly tested this program... it should be correct, though. And man from now on I'm watching the first half an hour or so of the match haha. Match #1 Result (Zack Fair > Wario) First place correct = 23.36% First place partial = 32.72% Second place correct = 31.59% Second place partial = 43.67% My bracket gets curbstomped, but hey, looks like most people's do, somehow. Not a good day for the leaderboard. Black Haired Cloud decides to start cookin with gas as he roasts Wario good. Match #1 Scoreboard Rank - User - Points (Predictions) 1 - charmander6000 - 98.2225 ( 21.53 33.72 43.36 27.62 ) 2 - kaonashi1 - 97.015 ( 32.7 34.2 44.1 30.9 ) 3 - Xcarvenger - 96.5825 ( 19.77 37.77 41.12 29.11 ) 4 - SFF_potential - 95.5 ( 21 32 56 29 ) 5 - _Lagoona_ - 94.99 ( 28.6 38.1 51.8 30.3 ) 6 - Gaddswell - 94.585 ( 34 35 44 40 ) 7 - Master Moltar - 94.54 ( 28 43 50 31 ) 8 - and now I dance - 93.955 ( 29 40 38 26 ) 9 - WiggumFan267 - 93.845 ( 30 30 30 30 ) 10 - NGamer64 - 93.75 ( 34 39 38 34 ) 11 - th3l3fty - 93.51 ( 14.23 40.89 36.76 33.34 ) 12 - Lopen - 93.29 ( 25 40 55 25 ) 13 - Justin_Crossing - 90.585 ( 41 45 44 39 ) 14 - Sephirot1 Returns - 90.3525 ( 31.25 21.21 53.15 21.88 ) 15 - ToadYoshi - 89.315 ( 42.63 44.45 46.8 40.2 ) 16 - mentalmike - 86.61 ( 20 45 70 20 ) I expected scores to be lower... guess we expected this one to be tough on the brackets, even if we didn't get it right. Charmander starts off in a big way, and Wigs beats half the field with straight 30s go team. Current Leaderboard Rank - User - Total (#of match) - Average 1 - charmander6000 - 98.2225 (1) - 98.2225 2 - kaonashi1 - 97.015 (1) - 97.015 3 - Xcarvenger - 96.5825 (1) - 96.5825 4 - SFF_potential - 95.5 (1) - 95.5 5 - _Lagoona_ - 94.99 (1) - 94.99 6 - Gaddswell - 94.585 (1) - 94.585 7 - Master Moltar - 94.54 (1) - 94.54 8 - and now I dance - 93.955 (1) - 93.955 9 - WiggumFan267 - 93.845 (1) - 93.845 10 - NGamer64 - 93.75 (1) - 93.75 11 - th3l3fty - 93.51 (1) - 93.51 12 - Lopen - 93.29 (1) - 93.29 13 - Justin_Crossing - 90.585 (1) - 90.585 14 - Sephirot1 Returns - 90.3525 (1) - 90.3525 15 - ToadYoshi - 89.315 (1) - 89.315 16 - mentalmike - 86.61 (1) - 86.61 Hey, look, it's the same as the results for the match "no comment imhhho." --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Lopen | Posted 9/18/2008 9:32:54 PM | message detail |
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Oh and feel free to leave feedback about the format of the results. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Xcarvenger | Posted 9/18/2008 9:41:04 PM | message detail |
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I guess you should round the score to 2 decimal places. Also I think it's better if the third and fourth predictions in the scoreboard being swapped (so people can compare directly with the actual results you posted from top to bottom and left to right). But otherwise, the formatting is really nice! and fast too! Just needs more people imho --- Xcarvenger: http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/9123/chocobo34kg4.jpg For all your board 8 needs: www.board8.wikia.com |
| Lopen | Posted 9/18/2008 11:26:15 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, actually I'd intended to round to 2 decimals but Perl is like "not enough decimals" and I'm like "screw you man." I guess I could just... manually round but where's the fun in that. I'll check it out tomorrow, I'm sure there's a very easy way to do it. The other things, very easy to fix and I admit they're for the better so I'll do that tomorrow for sure at least. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Lopen | Posted 9/18/2008 11:39:52 PM | message detail |
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Okay yeah that was trivially easy. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| _Lagoona_ | Posted 9/19/2008 1:22:08 AM | message detail |
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.I like the format! Only thing that could be improved a bit would be some kind of separator between the four predicted percentages in the Match Scoreboard, but that's a small thing. --- .Nobody is perfect, I'm nobody. :-Þ *Blob* |
| Lopen | Posted 9/19/2008 1:24:20 AM | message detail |
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Oh, yeah, true true, that would help. A small thing, but a small thing that's very easily done. Next match they'll be there. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| charmander6000 | Posted 9/19/2008 4:18:14 PM | message detail |
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I won the match? At least I won something yesterday. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 2/4 Today's Match: Link > Shadow |
| Justin_Crossing | Posted 9/19/2008 4:20:13 PM | message detail |
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Well, hopefully I do better today. --- Life may be unfair... But you can do something about it. http://i178.photobucket.com/albums/w250/Justin_Crossing/fear.png |
| Lopen | Posted 9/19/2008 9:41:23 PM | message detail |
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Once again, double check my work. (Augh, gotta make averages round... will do that next time) Match #2 Result (Link > Zidane Tribal) First place correct = 94.68% First place partial = 3.14% Second place correct = 36.34% Second place partial = 1.92% Shadow decides that PLAY TIME IS OVA! Thus leaving the bracket asap. Beat it, Flopow the Hedgehog, Zidane has yo number. Once again my (and probably most of the board's) bracket gets its head kicked in, whoo! Match #2 Scoreboard Rank - User - Points (Predictions) 1 - kaonashi1 - 99.22 ( 94.7, 4.8, 35.1, 1.7 ) 2 - Xcarvenger - 98.2 ( 94.91, 3.15, 29.99, 1.29 ) 3 - _Lagoona_ - 98.2 ( 94.7, 4, 42, 2.6 ) 4 - Master Moltar - 98.18 ( 94, 5, 41, 2 ) 5 - th3l3fty - 98.11 ( 93.33, 4.15, 31.41, 1.65 ) 6 - Lopen - 98.01 ( 92, 6, 35, 3 ) 7 - NGamer64 - 97.7 ( 95, 3, 45, 2 ) 8 - SFF_potential - 97.68 ( 93, 5,41, 3 ) 9 - mentalmike - 96.68 ( 92, 6, 41, 5 ) 10 - and now I dance - 96.68 ( 87, 4, 37, 6 ) 11 - Justin_Crossing - 95.93 ( 90, 10, 39, 4 ) 12 - Sephirot1 Returns - 95.02 ( 94.77, 0.14, 52.27, 1,57 ) 13 - Gaddswell - 95.01 ( 88, 8, 30, 4 ) 14 - ToadYoshi - 93.55 ( 94.2, 2.31, 12.3, 1.46 ) 15 - charmander6000 - 90.48 ( 78.25, 10.47, 27.36, 7.27 ) 16 - WiggumFan267 - 68.51 ( 30, 30, 30, 30 ) Kaonashi nearly bullseyes this puppy. Pretty easy match overall with 13/16 getting over 95 points. Charmander takes a BIG hit due to underestimating faith in Link... and Wigs proves that 30% doesn't exactly work for our previous year's runner up. Current Leaderboard Rank - User - Total (#of match) - Average 1 - kaonashi1 - 196.24 (2) - 98.12 2 - Xcarvenger - 194.78 (2) - 97.39 3 - _Lagoona_ - 193.19 (2) - 96.595 4 - SFF_potential - 193.18 (2) - 96.59 5 - Master Moltar - 192.72 (2) - 96.36 6 - th3l3fty - 191.62 (2) - 95.81 7 - NGamer64 - 191.45 (2) - 95.725 8 - Lopen - 191.3 (2) - 95.65 9 - and now I dance - 190.64 (2) - 95.32 10 - Gaddswell - 189.6 (2) - 94.8 11 - charmander6000 - 188.7 (2) - 94.35 12 - Justin_Crossing - 186.52 (2) - 93.26 13 - Sephirot1 Returns - 185.37 (2) - 92.685 14 - mentalmike - 183.29 (2) - 91.645 15 - ToadYoshi - 182.87 (2) - 91.435 16 - WiggumFan267 - 162.36 (2) - 81.18 Charmander takes a big spill for underestimating the mighty Link. And Wigs proves after beating half the field yesterday that he's not a factor in this if he's going to be taking 20 point hits every Noble Nine match. Hey what did PW say to Tidus. "Fail, Jecht's son". Wait. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| kaonashi1 | Posted 9/19/2008 9:49:41 PM | message detail |
| Nice to see I'm doing well in at least one prediction contest, considering the hit I'm going to take with today's Oracle prediction. >.> |
| Lopen | Posted 9/20/2008 9:38:05 PM | message detail |
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As usual, check my work. Program I'm 90% sure works flawlessly now but I still manually collect predictions so I might've missed some. Match #3 Result (Marth > Duke Nukem) First place correct = 19.83% First place partial = 29.09% Second place correct = 21.04% Second place partial = 30.68% Balls of steel prevail over Kefka's bath towel and GTA4 Hero. The Duke, unfortunately, found more gum before kickin that tiara wearin pansy's ass. Hey, I'm 4/12 pointwise who's with me? Match #3 Scoreboard Rank - User - Points (Predictions) 1 - Xcarvenger - 98.07 ( 19.44, 22.44, 20.67, 31.01 ) 2 - th3l3fty - 97 ( 19.66, 25.42, 15.51, 33.33 ) 3 - SFF_potential - 96.14 ( 18, 31, 19, 21 ) 4 - Sephirot1 Returns - 94.93 ( 20.16, 22.35,26.77, 23.18 ) 5 - WiggumFan267 - 94.82 ( 30, 30, 30, 30 ) 6 - and now I dance - 94.32 ( 33, 34, 22, 27 ) 7 - kaonashi1 - 93.46 ( 13.7, 18.1, 26.1, 26.7 ) 8 - Gaddswell - 93.32 ( 37, 33, 26, 30 ) 9 - Justin_Crossing - 92.78 ( 29, 18, 26, 27 ) 10 - NGamer64 - 92.57 ( 36, 31, 24, 22 ) 11 - _Lagoona_ - 92.55 ( 25, 31, 15, 14 ) 12 - Lopen - 92.02 ( 15.2, 18.92, 10.78, 23.8 ) 13 - mentalmike - 90.51 ( 30, 20, 15, 18 ) 14 - charmander6000 - 90.26 ( 30.15, 35.26, 25.27, 12.42 ) 15 - Master Moltar - 89.82 ( 26, 39, 29, 14 ) Tough match today, Xcarvenger busts out a nice 98.07, with th3l3fty and SFF_Potential being the only other two to break 95. Wigs lucks out as predictions are roughly around 30. Current Leaderboard Rank - User - Total (#of match) - Average 1 - Xcarvenger - 292.85 (3) - 97.62 2 - kaonashi1 - 289.7 (3) - 96.57 3 - SFF_potential - 289.32 (3) - 96.44 4 - th3l3fty - 288.62 (3) - 96.21 5 - _Lagoona_ - 285.74 (3) - 95.25 6 - and now I dance - 284.96 (3) - 94.99 7 - NGamer64 - 284.02 (3) - 94.67 8 - Lopen - 283.32 (3) - 94.44 9 - Gaddswell - 282.92 (3) - 94.31 10 - Master Moltar - 282.54 (3) - 94.18 11 - Sephirot1 Returns - 280.3 (3) - 93.43 12 - Justin_Crossing - 279.3 (3) - 93.1 13 - charmander6000 - 278.96 (3) - 92.99 14 - mentalmike - 273.8 (3) - 91.27 15 - WiggumFan267 - 257.18 (3) - 85.73 16 - ToadYoshi - 182.87 (2) - 91.44 ToadYoshi didn't predict today, back down to 15, a shame. Kaonashi loses his #1 spot for Xcarvenger, who is getting in position to kick all of our asses again. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Lopen | Posted 9/21/2008 9:38:48 PM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| Lopen | Posted 9/21/2008 9:55:33 PM | message detail |
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Hopefully this is correct. Match #4 Result (Altair > Lucario) First place correct = 52.09% First place partial = 19.89% Second place correct = 41.51% Second place partial = 21.00% Assassin!! defeats Lufailio in what the board thought was a lock. Meanwhile the casuals kick our ass with their highest non-Link correct predictions yet. Match #4 Scoreboard Rank - User - Points (Predictions) 1 - kaonashi1 - 93.62 ( 55.4, 24.2, 47.9, 32.5 ) 2 - Lopen - 92.52 ( 55, 35, 43.10, 31.33 ) 3 - _Lagoona_ - 88.83 ( 43, 32, 49, 37 ) 4 - Xcarvenger - 88.48 ( 47.71, 34.42, 22.43, 29.11 ) 5 - th3l3fty - 88.27 ( 43.34, 35.55, 26.45, 28.47 ) 6 - Master Moltar - 87.83 ( 42, 37, 45, 39 ) 7 - WiggumFan267 - 86.82 ( 30, 30, 30, 30 ) 8 - mentalmike - 86.07 ( 42, 40, 30, 35 ) 9 - and now I dance - 85.82 ( 28, 34, 36, 34 ) 10 - Sephirot1 Returns - 84.65 ( 40.65, 28.33, 60.27, 43.78 ) 11 - Gaddswell - 84.32 ( 36, 37, 30, 39 ) 12 - NGamer64 - 84.07 ( 27, 38, 35, 35 ) 13 - Justin_Crossing - 81.57 ( 33, 39, 27, 42 ) 14 - SFF_potential - 81.57 ( 43, 50, 37, 51 ) 15 - charmander6000 - 81.51 ( 25.26, 28.26, 23.26, 41.52 ) Not only does this match wreck the brackets of the board, but it wrecks our scores as well. Well, aside from KAONASHI and I, who kicked all your asses with the only scores above 90. *beats chest, hand gesture* Current Leaderboard Rank - User - Total (#of match) - Average 1 - kaonashi1 - 383.32 (4) - 95.83 2 - Xcarvenger - 381.33 (4) - 95.33 3 - th3l3fty - 376.89 (4) - 94.22 4 - Lopen - 375.84 (4) - 93.96 5 - _Lagoona_ - 374.57 (4) - 93.64 6 - SFF_potential - 370.89 (4) - 92.72 7 - and now I dance - 370.78 (4) - 92.7 8 - Master Moltar - 370.37 (4) - 92.59 9 - NGamer64 - 368.09 (4) - 92.02 10 - Gaddswell - 367.24 (4) - 91.81 11 - Sephirot1 Returns - 364.95 (4) - 91.24 12 - Justin_Crossing - 360.87 (4) - 90.22 13 - charmander6000 - 360.47 (4) - 90.12 14 - mentalmike - 359.87 (4) - 89.97 15 - WiggumFan267 - 344 (4) - 86 16 - ToadYoshi - 182.87 (2) - 91.44 Kaonashi snags the lead with his great prediction today. I move up a few places for my awesome prediction, and SFF_Potential takes quite a spill for his second to last place showing, but for the most part the ranking stays the same due to a huge mess of scores bunched from 86-88, and the order of those scores roughly matching the leaderboard from yesterday. Consistency! --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| kaonashi1 | Posted 9/22/2008 9:09:00 PM | message detail |
| More people had Liquid advancing than Luigi. I am genuinely baffled. |
| Lopen | Posted 9/22/2008 9:42:34 PM | message detail |
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As usual, check my work. Yesterday this wasn't even an empty statement Match #17 Result (Luigi > Liquid Snake) First place correct = 41.44% First place partial = 36.51% Second place correct = 32.13% Second place partial = 48.04% Finally a match where the so called gurus earn their stripes over the casuals. Amazing. Liquid impresses, though, and is lookin mighty nice to run over Bowser and/or Luigi next round. Match #17 Scoreboard Rank - User - Points (Predictions) 1 - th3l3fty - 93.76 ( 46.46, 43.21, 33.11, 35.79 ) 2 - Xcarvenger - 93.29 ( 44.44, 45.67, 33.33, 34.56 ) 3 - Master Moltar - 93.01 ( 53, 36, 35, 35 ) 4 - Gaddswell - 92.91 ( 45.30, 39.36, 30.39, 28.12 ) 5 - Lopen - 92.27 ( 52.12, 38.83, 40.11, 38.09 ) 6 - _Lagoona_ - 92.16 ( 49.7, 39.7, 37.3, 33.3 ) 7 - WiggumFan267 - 90.47 ( 30, 30, 30, 30 ) 8 - NGamer64 - 89.51 ( 57, 32, 38, 32 ) 9 - charmander6000 - 88.53 ( 39.26, 19.36, 31.26, 22.37 ) 10 - and now I dance - 87.76 ( 55, 28, 40, 29 ) 11 - Sephirot1 Returns - 86.98 ( 62.20, 35.77, 38.82, 24.15 ) 12 - kaonashi1 - 86.96 ( 59.2, 31.5, 45.2, 31.7 ) 13 - mentalmike - 81.51 ( 65, 30, 50, 22 ) 14 - Justin_Crossing - 77.51 ( 62, 19, 62, 26 ) 15 - SFF_potential - 67.51 ( 82, 17, 65, 11 ) Fairly tough match to call for us as no one breaks 95. Seems like overshooting bracket placement of Luigi in first was likely the problem... to which I say: Never forget that people are stupid when filling their brackets out and that Liquid Snake was above Luigi in the bracket positionwise. Current Leaderboard Rank - User - Total (#of match) - Average 1 - Xcarvenger - 474.62 (5) - 94.92 2 - th3l3fty - 470.65 (5) - 94.13 3 - kaonashi1 - 470.28 (5) - 94.06 4 - Lopen - 468.11 (5) - 93.62 5 - _Lagoona_ - 466.73 (5) - 93.35 6 - Master Moltar - 463.38 (5) - 92.68 7 - Gaddswell - 460.15 (5) - 92.03 8 - and now I dance - 458.54 (5) - 91.71 9 - NGamer64 - 457.6 (5) - 91.52 10 - Sephirot1 Returns - 451.93 (5) - 90.39 11 - charmander6000 - 449 (5) - 89.8 12 - mentalmike - 441.38 (5) - 88.28 13 - SFF_potential - 438.4 (5) - 87.68 14 - Justin_Crossing - 438.38 (5) - 87.68 15 - WiggumFan267 - 434.47 (5) - 86.89 16 - ToadYoshi - 182.87 (2) - 91.44 Kaonashi's blunder today costs him a few positions, as Xcarvenger retakes the lead. Wigs is slowly crawling back up into contention for the bottommost positions. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Justin_Crossing | Posted 9/22/2008 9:43:55 PM | message detail |
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Lopen, I think I'm going to stop messing with my predictions and leave them as-is. This is my worst contest of them all >_< --- Justin's CB Points: 16 | Points After this Round: 20 Today: Bowser > Phoenix | Tomorrow: Mario > Knuckles |
| Lopen | Posted 9/22/2008 10:06:17 PM | message detail |
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The thing with this contest though: It's so hard to predict that you can really make huge jumps (or spills) with just one match. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Lopen | Posted 9/23/2008 10:42:43 PM | message detail |
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Match #6 Result (Bowser > Phoenix Wright) First place correct = 72.76% First place partial = 15.49% Second place correct = 42.25% Second place partial = 10.83% Phoenix is probably the commanding second place favorite here looking at the numbers... I think that's pretty odd, but I guess contest history does that for you. Bowser beats Phoenix in a fairly uninteresting match. Match #6 Scoreboard Rank - User - Points (Predictions) 1 - NGamer64 - 97.71 ( 74, 19, 41, 14 ) 2 - charmander6000 - 95.69 ( 76.25, 15.74, 31.52, 13.62 ) 3 - Gaddswell - 95.3 ( 81, 12, 37, 9 ) 4 - kaonashi1 - 95.1 ( 82.0, 9.1, 40.4, 8.7 ) 5 - and now I dance - 94.33 ( 67, 21, 31, 11 ) 6 - _Lagoona_ - 93.62 ( 84.8, 11.1, 37, 7 ) 7 - Master Moltar - 93.55 ( 80, 9, 31, 10 ) 8 - mentalmike - 92.84 ( 80, 14, 60, 13 ) 9 - SFF_potential - 92.55 ( 87, 11, 34, 8 ) 10 - Xcarvenger - 91.21 ( 85.78, 7.07, 49.11, 3.98 ) 11 - Lopen - 90.9 ( 86.11, 6.40, 31.01, 8.12 ) 12 - th3l3fty - 90.76 ( 87.77, 5.55, 47.74, 4.32 ) 13 - Sephirot1 Returns - 89.19 ( 84.33, 21.55, 22.22, 5.23 ) 14 - Justin_Crossing - 87.58 ( 46, 23, 41, 25 ) 15 - WiggumFan267 - 77.83 ( 30, 30, 30, 30 ) NGamer64 takes the top prediction by over 2 points with his great pick today. Pretty good match for us today... with the lowest non 30 prediction still getting into the high 80s. Current Leaderboard Rank - User - Total (#of match) - Average 1 - Xcarvenger - 565.83 (6) - 94.31 2 - kaonashi1 - 565.38 (6) - 94.23 3 - th3l3fty - 561.41 (6) - 93.57 4 - _Lagoona_ - 560.35 (6) - 93.39 5 - Lopen - 559.01 (6) - 93.17 6 - Master Moltar - 556.93 (6) - 92.82 7 - Gaddswell - 555.45 (6) - 92.57 8 - NGamer64 - 555.31 (6) - 92.55 9 - and now I dance - 552.87 (6) - 92.15 10 - charmander6000 - 544.69 (6) - 90.78 11 - Sephirot1 Returns - 541.12 (6) - 90.19 12 - mentalmike - 534.22 (6) - 89.04 13 - SFF_potential - 530.95 (6) - 88.49 14 - Justin_Crossing - 525.96 (6) - 87.66 15 - WiggumFan267 - 512.3 (6) - 85.38 16 - ToadYoshi - 182.87 (2) - 91.44 kaonashi creeps up towards Xcarvenger to retake 1st place. Still a fairly tight race among the top 8 with a mere 10 points separating them, and even below that, a mere 10 more. Anyone's ballgame. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Lopen | Posted 9/24/2008 11:58:02 PM | message detail |
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As usual, check that I got your last change in. Match #7 Result (Mario > Zelda) First place correct = 74.45% First place partial = 18.84% Second place correct = 59.43% Second place partial = 8.79% Zelda stomps Knuckles in what a lot of people would tell you was a debated match. The casuals didn't really buy it, though, as they wreck the so called gurus of board 8 again. Match #7 Scoreboard Rank - User - Points (Predictions) 1 - th3l3fty - 95.33 ( 72.35, 21.09, 45.88, 8.01 ) 2 - kaonashi1 - 94.41 ( 71.5, 21.9, 45.7, 11.4 ) 3 - Xcarvenger - 93.8 ( 69.69, 24.77, 48.69, 5.42 ) 4 - _Lagoona_ - 93.49 ( 71.1, 20.2, 43.5, 14.2 ) 5 - Lopen - 93.44 ( 65, 20, 45, 10 ) 6 - NGamer64 - 92.85 ( 84, 11, 50, 7 ) 7 - Gaddswell - 91.47 ( 74.74, 13.63, 32.81, 10.78 ) 8 - mentalmike - 90.6 ( 90, 8, 50, 7 ) 9 - Sephirot1 Returns - 90.05 ( 89.25, 14.37, 44.44, 3.25 ) 10 - SFF_potential - 89.06 ( 91, 6, 67,2 ) 11 - charmander6000 - 88.56 ( 88.36, 7.63, 39.36, 8.23 ) 12 - and now I dance - 87.24 ( 88, 13, 37, 18 ) 13 - Justin_Crossing - 84.94 ( 61, 29,31, 17 ) 14 - Master Moltar - 80.94 ( 55, 45, 35, 15 ) 15 - WiggumFan267 - 73.44 ( 30, 30, 30, 30 ) Not a very easy match for us, but not disasteriffic. th3l3fty is the only one to break 95 points today, with most damage being done due to our underestimation of bracketmaker faith in Zelda. Current Leaderboard Rank - User - Total (#of match) - Average 1 - kaonashi1 - 659.79 (7) - 94.26 2 - Xcarvenger - 659.63 (7) - 94.23 3 - th3l3fty - 656.74 (7) - 93.82 4 - _Lagoona_ - 653.84 (7) - 93.41 5 - Lopen - 652.45 (7) - 93.21 6 - NGamer64 - 648.16 (7) - 92.59 7 - Gaddswell - 646.92 (7) - 92.42 8 - and now I dance - 640.11 (7) - 91.44 9 - Master Moltar - 637.87 (7) - 91.12 10 - charmander6000 - 633.25 (7) - 90.46 11 - Sephirot1 Returns - 631.17 (7) - 90.17 12 - mentalmike - 624.82 (7) - 89.26 13 - SFF_potential - 620.01 (7) - 88.57 14 - Justin_Crossing - 610.9 (7) - 87.27 15 - WiggumFan267 - 585.74 (7) - 83.68 16 - ToadYoshi - 182.87 (2) - 91.44 kaonashi and xcarvenger still keeping neck and neck. l3fty narrows the gap by about a point, which is pretty significant considering they're only three points ahead of him. Moltar drops a few positions from his uncharacteristically painful prediction today. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Lopen | Posted 9/26/2008 2:44:15 AM | message detail |
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Thinkin I'll start a "top ten predictions" thing soon. Maybe a top 5 prediction tally like Lagoona used to do. Match #8 Result (Mega Man X > Mudkip) First place correct = 48.92% First place partial = 37.24% Second place correct = 25.41% Second place partial = 30.65% Casuals get rocked, because apparently Mega Man X doesn't deserve any respect after Mega Man tearing contests up for seven years going strong. Well, that, and Mega Man X was listed last. Mega Man X beats the damn Mudkipz in a travesty (Lloyd Irving shoulda won! I do not liek Mudkipz). Match #8 Scoreboard Rank - User - Points (Predictions) 1 - th3l3fty - 97.49 ( 47.47, 41.41, 25.01, 26.62 ) 2 - kaonashi1 - 95.42 ( 48.4, 41.2, 22.9, 19.3 ) 3 - Xcarvenger - 94.28 ( 44.00, 49.45, 19.91, 30.38 ) 4 - Master Moltar - 92.61 ( 51, 34, 46, 27 ) 5 - Gaddswell - 92.28 ( 65.14, 27.98, 30.55, 30.38 ) 6 - _Lagoona_ - 92.24 ( 52.5, 28, 42, 29 ) 7 - WiggumFan267 - 92.15 ( 30, 30, 30, 30 ) 8 - and now I dance - 91.86 ( 62, 31, 28, 20 ) 9 - Justin_Crossing - 91.11 ( 50, 22, 36, 22 ) 10 - charmander6000 - 90.33 ( 62.35, 29.32, 31.53, 19.45 ) 11 - NGamer64 - 88.61 ( 62, 24, 33, 19 ) 12 - Lopen - 87.93 ( 63.41, 28.12, 43.1, 23.66 ) 13 - mentalmike - 87.86 ( 62, 26, 44, 25 ) 14 - Sephirot1 Returns - 79.6 ( 78.99, 21.01, 55.32, 25.25 ) 15 - SFF_potential - 73.36 ( 72, 20, 79, 18 ) Scores seem to be inversely proportional to how much we overestimated casual support of X. th3l3fty with a pretty spot on prediction today, scoring 97.49 points. Kaonashi was the only other to break 95. 10/15 score over 90 today, so apparently most of us expected X to be underestimated here. Sephirot1 Returns and SFF_Potential take a pretty harsh hit for giving Mega Man X reasonable first place percentages. Current Leaderboard Rank - User - Total (#of match) - Average 1 - kaonashi1 - 755.21 (8) - 94.4 2 - th3l3fty - 754.23 (8) - 94.28 3 - Xcarvenger - 753.91 (8) - 94.24 4 - _Lagoona_ - 746.08 (8) - 93.26 5 - Lopen - 740.38 (8) - 92.55 6 - Gaddswell - 739.2 (8) - 92.4 7 - NGamer64 - 736.77 (8) - 92.1 8 - and now I dance - 731.97 (8) - 91.5 9 - Master Moltar - 730.48 (8) - 91.31 10 - charmander6000 - 723.58 (8) - 90.45 11 - mentalmike - 712.68 (8) - 89.09 12 - Sephirot1 Returns - 710.77 (8) - 88.85 13 - Justin_Crossing - 702.01 (8) - 87.75 14 - SFF_potential - 693.37 (8) - 86.67 15 - WiggumFan267 - 677.89 (8) - 84.74 16 - ToadYoshi - 182.87 (2) - 91.44 th3lefty leapfrogs xcarvenger with his great prediction today as the #1 contender for kaonashi's title, otherwise the top 5 remains unchanged. mentalmike and Justin_Crossing both reap the rewards of the nearby sub 80 scores, both increasing a position with authority. No huge shakeups other than that. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Lopen | Posted 9/27/2008 1:36:20 AM | message detail |
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Check my wo-- *gets shot* Match #9 Result (Samus Aran > Nightmare) First place correct = 66.60% First place partial = 28.70% Second place correct = 36.41% Second place partial = 17.48% Samus being on the bottom causes the casuals and their lack of the reading skills to suffer again. Meanwhile Crash Bandicoot drains a lot of Nightmare's bracket reserves, one can assume. Samus beats Nightmare in undoubtedly the most boring match of the contest... the percents changed like... by less than 1% since the beginning. It was terrible. Match #9 Scoreboard Rank - User - Points (Predictions) 1 - NGamer64 - 97.24 ( 68, 25, 36, 23 ) 2 - and now I dance - 96.49 ( 72, 24, 34, 19 ) 3 - Lopen - 95.7 ( 58, 25, 32, 17 ) 4 - charmander6000 - 94.98 ( 69.35, 18.35, 34.36, 12.53 ) 5 - th3l3fty - 94.29 ( 60.06, 35.22, 31.13, 22.00 ) 6 - Gaddswell - 93.56 ( 69.13, 14.81, 32.11, 12.45 ) 7 - Xcarvenger - 93.02 ( 58.33, 38.20, 29.90, 21.11 ) 8 - Master Moltar - 92.7 ( 70, 22, 48, 25 ) 9 - kaonashi1 - 92.19 ( 58.2, 38.0, 28.9, 23.5 ) 10 - _Lagoona_ - 91.95 ( 72, 24, 56, 20 ) 11 - Justin_Crossing - 90.5 ( 78, 18, 30, 8 ) 12 - mentalmike - 89.46 ( 81, 12, 38, 8 ) 13 - WiggumFan267 - 85.79 ( 30, 30, 30, 30 ) 14 - SFF_potential - 85.46 ( 87, 9, 45, 8 ) 15 - Sephirot1 Returns - 84.44 ( 93.52, 14.27, 27.68, 5.32 ) Luckily, most of us knew that Samus would suffer because of that. The few that didn't pay a big price, but Samus blunders excepted this was a pretty easy call all around. NGamer64 pulls an awesome score of 97.24, with and now I dance and yours truly in tow, both breaking 95 points. Current Leaderboard Rank - User - Total (#of match) - Average 1 - th3l3fty - 848.52 (9) - 94.28 2 - kaonashi1 - 847.4 (9) - 94.16 3 - Xcarvenger - 846.93 (9) - 94.1 4 - _Lagoona_ - 838.03 (9) - 93.11 5 - Lopen - 836.08 (9) - 92.9 6 - NGamer64 - 834.01 (9) - 92.67 7 - Gaddswell - 832.76 (9) - 92.53 8 - and now I dance - 828.46 (9) - 92.05 9 - Master Moltar - 823.18 (9) - 91.46 10 - charmander6000 - 818.56 (9) - 90.95 11 - mentalmike - 802.14 (9) - 89.13 12 - Sephirot1 Returns - 795.21 (9) - 88.36 13 - Justin_Crossing - 792.51 (9) - 88.06 14 - SFF_potential - 778.83 (9) - 86.54 15 - WiggumFan267 - 763.68 (9) - 84.85 16 - ToadYoshi - 182.87 (2) - 91.44 th3l3fty overtakes kaonashi as a result of nashi's uncharacteristically average prediction today. Other than that, the Leaderboard is mostly unchanged today, with NGamer64 and his top prediction jumping over Gaddswell being the only other move in the standings. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Lopen | Posted 9/27/2008 3:24:21 AM | message detail |
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So how does this look? I won't be giving this for every match, probably every division or two. Comments on formatting and stuff, though? Current Top 5 Predictions User - 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th th3l3fty - 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 kaonashi1 - 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 NGamer64 - 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 Xcarvenger - 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 charmander6000 - 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 Lopen - 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 and now I dance - 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 _Lagoona_ - 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 Master Moltar - 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 Gaddswell - 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 SFF_potential - 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 Sephirot1 Returns - 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 WiggumFan267 - 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 Justin_Crossing - 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 mentalmike - 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 ToadYoshi - 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 These are the actual amount of times that each of us has placed in the top 5, by the way. I might work out a scoring system but for now they're just sorted by # of first place choices, followed by top # of second place choices... etc etc. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Lopen | Posted 9/27/2008 10:31:58 PM | message detail |
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Match #10 Result (Ganondorf > Frog) First place correct = 70.79% First place partial = 20.39% Second place correct = 34.33% Second place partial = 17.87% Apparently bracketmakers who picked Frog were the ones that knew how to read the bracket, because most that had him advancing here did NOT have him over Ganondorf. Ganondorf defeats Frog in a match I thought KOS-MOS was going to make an epic Frog match out of, and instead flopped in. *sigh* Match #10 Scoreboard Rank - User - Points (Predictions) 1 - Xcarvenger - 98.63 ( 70.15, 19.90, 30.15, 17.70 ) 2 - th3l3fty - 98.18 ( 69.96, 21.43, 29.94, 18.88 ) 3 - kaonashi1 - 97.82 ( 72.2, 17.3, 38.2, 17.5 ) 4 - SFF_potential - 97.75 ( 72, 21, 33, 12 ) 5 - NGamer64 - 95.29 ( 62, 26, 34, 22 ) 6 - mentalmike - 94.7 ( 60.53, 25.23, 34.34, 23.96 ) 7 - Master Moltar - 93.95 ( 59, 22, 38, 25 ) 8 - and now I dance - 93.45 ( 56, 25, 39, 20 ) 9 - charmander6000 - 93.23 ( 55.35, 28.36, 32.15, 19.35 ) 10 - Gaddswell - 92.98 ( 58.42, 32.07, 36.11, 20.14 ) 11 - Justin_Crossing - 90.35 ( 47, 22, 23, 16 ) 12 - _Lagoona_ - 89.2 ( 55, 31, 39, 30 ) 13 - Sephirot1 Returns - 89 ( 75.00, 16.54, 64.66, 12.25 ) 14 - Lopen - 85.45 ( 50, 30, 45, 35 ) 15 - WiggumFan267 - 83.29 ( 30, 30, 30, 30 ) 16 - ToadYoshi - 0 ( DISCARD ) Some damn good scores at the top of the leaderboard today. The top 5 all break 95, and Xcarvenger and th3l3fty break 98 with their fantastic first and second place predictions. Current Leaderboard Rank - User - Total (#of match) - Average 1 - th3l3fty - 946.7 (10) - 94.67 2 - Xcarvenger - 945.56 (10) - 94.56 3 - kaonashi1 - 945.22 (10) - 94.52 4 - NGamer64 - 929.3 (10) - 92.93 5 - _Lagoona_ - 927.23 (10) - 92.72 6 - Gaddswell - 925.74 (10) - 92.57 7 - and now I dance - 921.91 (10) - 92.19 8 - Lopen - 921.53 (10) - 92.15 9 - Master Moltar - 917.13 (10) - 91.71 10 - charmander6000 - 911.79 (10) - 91.18 11 - mentalmike - 896.84 (10) - 89.68 12 - Sephirot1 Returns - 884.21 (10) - 88.42 13 - Justin_Crossing - 882.86 (10) - 88.29 14 - SFF_potential - 876.58 (10) - 87.66 15 - WiggumFan267 - 846.97 (10) - 84.7 16 - ToadYoshi - 182.87 (2) - 91.44 Ouch. I take quite a spill for my Ganondorf bracket faith underestimation, as does Lagoona, allowing NGamer64 to catapult to #4. xcarvenger bumps kaonashi1 down a spot with his near bullseye today. Not much movement aside from that. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Lopen | Posted 9/28/2008 10:39:47 PM | message detail |
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Match #11 Result (Vincent Valentine > Falco Lombardi) First place correct = 49.37% First place partial = 35.89% Second place correct = 36.94% Second place partial = 26.57% Vincent gets middle of the road bracket support... partially from his position in the match but also because I think the voters are infamous for underestimating Vincent. As far as the match, GlaDOS made this one seem kinda interesting in the first ten minutes, but then it was all Falco. Match #11 Scoreboard Rank - User - Points (Predictions) 1 - Master Moltar - 97.71 ( 50, 30, 38, 25 ) 2 - kaonashi1 - 96.52 ( 54.1, 33.1, 31.4, 25.7 ) 3 - Xcarvenger - 96.41 ( 44.77, 33.77, 33.44, 22.44 ) 4 - mentalmike - 96.09 ( 45.27, 33.16, 33.83, 20.85 ) 5 - Justin_Crossing - 93.94 ( 58.69, 29.10, 42.83, 24.31 ) 6 - Gaddswell - 93.87 ( 65.13, 35.01, 32.14, 23.47 ) 7 - th3l3fty - 93.22 ( 58.88, 27.76, 34.01, 20.00 ) 8 - charmander6000 - 93.03 ( 61.25, 25.63, 38.46, 22.36 ) 9 - _Lagoona_ - 92.56 ( 48, 32, 52, 36 ) 10 - Lopen - 91.75 ( 50, 30, 50, 40 ) 11 - WiggumFan267 - 91.09 ( 30, 30, 30, 30 ) 12 - and now I dance - 90.24 ( 55, 21, 35, 10 ) 13 - NGamer64 - 90.21 ( 60, 27, 38, 8 ) 14 - SFF_potential - 87.21 ( 68, 29, 54, 18 ) 15 - Sephirot1 Returns - 77.29 ( 85.14, 14.86, 56.99, 12.57 ) Moltar busts out a top prediction with 97.71 points. Kaonashi, Xcarvenger, and mentalmike all in tow breaking 95 points. Justin Crossing makes his first top 5 prediction of the contest, give it up. Interestingly, most of the scores are clumped around the 90-93 range... not the easiest match but people had consistent scores. Current Leaderboard Rank - User - Total (#of match) - Average 1 - Xcarvenger - 1041.97 (11) - 94.72 2 - kaonashi1 - 1041.74 (11) - 94.7 3 - th3l3fty - 1039.92 (11) - 94.54 4 - _Lagoona_ - 1019.79 (11) - 92.71 5 - Gaddswell - 1019.61 (11) - 92.69 6 - NGamer64 - 1019.51 (11) - 92.68 7 - Master Moltar - 1014.84 (11) - 92.26 8 - Lopen - 1013.28 (11) - 92.12 9 - and now I dance - 1012.15 (11) - 92.01 10 - charmander6000 - 1004.82 (11) - 91.35 11 - mentalmike - 992.93 (11) - 90.27 12 - Justin_Crossing - 976.8 (11) - 88.8 13 - SFF_potential - 963.79 (11) - 87.62 14 - Sephirot1 Returns - 961.5 (11) - 87.41 15 - WiggumFan267 - 938.06 (11) - 85.28 16 - ToadYoshi - 182.87 (2) - 91.44 th3lefty loses a small chunk falling behind in the three man race for first. We've also got a VERY close three man race for 4th, at this point. Not much movement on the leaderboard other than that due to all the scores being so clumped around 90-93 --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| _Lagoona_ | Posted 9/29/2008 5:51:40 AM | message detail |
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.Been away for the weekend. The leaderboard is quite interesting. Three people with a huge lead on everybody else, then a close battle for fourth. Fun. Oh, and as far as the Top5 standings are concerned - I would only do them after Round 1, and then maybe after each further complete round. --- .Nobody is perfect, I'm nobody. :-Þ *Blob* |
| Lopen | Posted 9/29/2008 10:23:57 PM | message detail |
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I hear ya, Lagoona. That seems about right. And yeah, it's cool that there are groups of people hotly contesting almost all positions on the board. Match #12 Result (Scorpion > Gordon Freeman) First place correct = 28.78% First place partial = 36.79% Second place correct = 29.62% Second place partial = 34.23% GFNW makes a match with Scorpion close when some had him losing to Balthier. Amazing. How far you've come over all these years, Gordon. And get this, he was the bracket favorite. Wow. Match #12 Scoreboard Rank - User - Points (Predictions) 1 - mentalmike - 96.92 ( 35.12, 36.65, 33.98, 32.74 ) 2 - WiggumFan267 - 96.85 ( 30, 30, 30, 30 ) 3 - SFF_potential - 96.6 ( 37,35, 31, 32 ) 4 - Xcarvenger - 96.5 ( 29.41, 41.29, 31.41, 41.31 ) 5 - Master Moltar - 95.35 ( 36, 28, 30, 32 ) 6 - charmander6000 - 95.14 ( 33.52, 34.46, 29.36, 46.34 ) 7 - th3l3fty - 95.01 ( 31.31, 39.60, 40.11, 30.11 ) 8 - Justin_Crossing - 94.72 ( 35.21, 39.60, 41.15, 33.86 ) 9 - kaonashi1 - 94.72 ( 29.7, 43.5, 27.1, 45.2 ) 10 - Gaddswell - 93.48 ( 39.20, 30.34, 37.14, 35.92 ) 11 - _Lagoona_ - 93.43 ( 46, 37, 29, 26 ) 12 - Lopen - 93.29 ( 45, 35, 25, 30 ) 13 - NGamer64 - 86.35 ( 56, 23, 34, 25 ) 14 - and now I dance - 85.6 ( 59, 26, 39, 27 ) 15 - Sephirot1 Returns - 83.91 ( 42.69, 40.25, 43.42, 1.05 ) Wow. What a weird score distribution. Mentalmike hits 1st (his first of the contest give it up!) place with 96.62 points... and get this... I'm in 12th with 93.29. Less than 4 points separate 12th from 1st. Amazing. And I'd call it group think but the loss of points are from everywhere. A word to Sephirot1 Returns... 1%!? Really? I had to go double check that's what you put in the topic after seeing that. Current Leaderboard Rank - User - Total (#of match) - Average 1 - Xcarvenger - 1138.47 (12) - 94.87 2 - kaonashi1 - 1136.46 (12) - 94.71 3 - th3l3fty - 1134.93 (12) - 94.58 4 - _Lagoona_ - 1113.22 (12) - 92.77 5 - Gaddswell - 1113.09 (12) - 92.76 6 - Master Moltar - 1110.19 (12) - 92.52 7 - Lopen - 1106.57 (12) - 92.21 8 - NGamer64 - 1105.86 (12) - 92.15 9 - charmander6000 - 1099.96 (12) - 91.66 10 - and now I dance - 1097.75 (12) - 91.48 11 - mentalmike - 1089.85 (12) - 90.82 12 - Justin_Crossing - 1071.52 (12) - 89.29 13 - SFF_potential - 1060.39 (12) - 88.37 14 - Sephirot1 Returns - 1045.41 (12) - 87.12 15 - WiggumFan267 - 1034.91 (12) - 86.24 16 - ToadYoshi - 182.87 (2) - 91.44 The leaderboard is pretty much stagnant with this match. 4 points separating 1st from 12th will do that. I leapfrog NGamer64 as he was one of the few who didn't fall in that range. Not much else to see here. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Lopen | Posted 9/29/2008 10:52:03 PM | message detail |
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PREDICTIONS FOR DIVISIONS 5-8 UP --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Lopen | Posted 9/29/2008 10:52:38 PM | message detail |
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AND I FORGOT TO LINK http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=45714737 --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Lopen | Posted 10/1/2008 12:00:34 AM | message detail |
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bump --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Lopen | Posted 10/1/2008 11:36:25 PM | message detail |
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Gee I hope I didn't make any errors here... since I'm doing two in a row. New prediction topic up! http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=45714737 Match #13 Result (Crono > Amaterasu) First place correct = 78.50% First place partial = 13.09% Second place correct = 33.86% Second place partial = 11.97% Crono: Underestimated, but not as much as I'd thought he'd be given it's Crono and given that he was the second one on the list. Crono beats Amaterasu match that really was as obvious as people were saying it was... I had Kaim. *weep* Match #13 Scoreboard Rank - User - Points (Predictions) 1 - charmander6000 - 97.36 ( 77.37, 16.47, 31.42, 8.36 ) 2 - th3l3fty - 97.01 ( 72.00, 13.57, 38.83, 11.99 ) 3 - kaonashi1 - 96.36 ( 72.7, 18.5, 34.8, 14.4 ) 4 - Xcarvenger - 96.06 ( 71.77, 12.34, 41.77, 12.34 ) 5 - Sephirot1 Returns - 95.28 ( 79.23, 20.01, 41.88, 8.77 ) 6 - NGamer64 - 95.19 ( 73, 19, 28, 10 ) 7 - mentalmike - 95.16 ( 80.18, 17.54, 45.01, 9.89 ) 8 - Gaddswell - 95.07 ( 75.31, 17.31, 46.01, 12.14 ) 9 - Justin_Crossing - 94.23 ( 74.32, 14.64, 46.29, 16.88 ) 10 - Master Moltar - 94.18 ( 68, 24, 33, 13 ) 11 - SFF_potential - 90.86 ( 69, 28, 46, 12 ) 12 - Lopen - 89.43 ( 65, 30, 30, 20 ) 13 - _Lagoona_ - 88.48 ( 68.5, 28, 45, 22 ) 14 - and now I dance - 86.94 ( 48, 27, 30, 8 ) 15 - WiggumFan267 - 78.18 ( 30, 30, 30, 30 ) Nice prediction by Charmander as he scores 1st, his second 1st place prediction of the contest. This is another fairly tightly packed match with the top 10 all breaking 94 points. Current Leaderboard Rank - User - Total (#of match) - Average 1 - Xcarvenger - 1234.53 (13) - 94.96 2 - kaonashi1 - 1232.82 (13) - 94.83 3 - th3l3fty - 1231.94 (13) - 94.76 4 - Gaddswell - 1208.16 (13) - 92.94 5 - Master Moltar - 1204.37 (13) - 92.64 6 - _Lagoona_ - 1201.7 (13) - 92.44 7 - NGamer64 - 1201.05 (13) - 92.39 8 - charmander6000 - 1197.32 (13) - 92.1 9 - Lopen - 1196 (13) - 92 10 - mentalmike - 1185.01 (13) - 91.15 11 - and now I dance - 1184.69 (13) - 91.13 12 - Justin_Crossing - 1165.75 (13) - 89.67 13 - SFF_potential - 1151.25 (13) - 88.56 14 - Sephirot1 Returns - 1140.69 (13) - 87.75 15 - WiggumFan267 - 1113.09 (13) - 85.62 16 - ToadYoshi - 182.87 (2) - 91.44 Still got the three man tussle up top with no real changes. Gaddswell starts to break away from his group with all of his competitors: Lagoona, Moltar, and me, having kinda bad scores on this match. Charmander capitalizes on said competitors and enters the fray for the 4th-9th position. And dude. Check out my score... it's... perfectly integer. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| _Lagoona_ | Posted 10/1/2008 11:59:38 PM | message detail |
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.Ouch @ that last match. And yesterday's didn't go too well, either. An impressive amount of 49% chose L-Block to win? >_< --- .Nobody is perfect, I'm nobody. :-Þ *Blob* |
| Lopen | Posted 10/2/2008 12:00:42 AM | message detail |
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Indeed, Lagoona. Today was rough. Luckily it was rough on most. Gee I hope I didn't make any errors here... since I'm doing two in a row. New prediction topic up for divisions 5-8! http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=45714737 Match #14 Result (L Block > Ryu (Street Fighter)) First place correct = 49.02% First place partial = 17.02% Second place correct = 43.81% Second place partial = 30.99% L-Block edges out Ryu. I hate you, foul creation. The casuals, expectedly from the poll before the contest, saw this coming for the most part. Match #14 Scoreboard Rank - User - Points (Predictions) 1 - kaonashi1 - 98.13 ( 47.5, 21.2, 44.6, 32.0 ) 2 - Lopen - 94.72 ( 55, 30, 45, 30 ) 3 - Justin_Crossing - 94.29 ( 46.54, 27.93, 46.12, 38.12 ) 4 - Master Moltar - 93.55 ( 46, 35, 41, 33 ) 5 - Xcarvenger - 93.11 ( 50.50, 30.30, 35.35, 35.35 ) 6 - th3l3fty - 93.06 ( 48.87, 31.12, 35.28, 35.99 ) 7 - Sephirot1 Returns - 92.99 ( 36.99, 20.20, 55.38, 32.25 ) 8 - _Lagoona_ - 91.55 ( 35, 25, 40, 39 ) 9 - SFF_potential - 91.3 ( 48, 39,42, 41 ) 10 - Gaddswell - 90.31 ( 44.21, 34.74, 31.65, 35.08 ) 11 - and now I dance - 88.72 ( 60, 34, 52, 22 ) 12 - mentalmike - 88.64 ( 32.12, 32.42, 35.42, 35.76 ) 13 - NGamer64 - 88.55 ( 41, 37, 35, 40 ) 14 - WiggumFan267 - 88.3 ( 30, 30, 30, 30 ) 15 - charmander6000 - 85.83 ( 33.33, 33.33, 31.36, 43.22 ) Wow. It ruins brackets, it ruins our scores. Kaonashi somehow manages a pretty damn good score out of this chaos, scoring an impressive 98.13 points. The second place, me, got 94.72, over 3 points lower. Probably the lowest averaging match yet. Current Leaderboard Rank - User - Total (#of match) - Average 1 - kaonashi1 - 1330.95 (14) - 95.07 2 - Xcarvenger - 1327.64 (14) - 94.83 3 - th3l3fty - 1325 (14) - 94.64 4 - Gaddswell - 1298.47 (14) - 92.75 5 - Master Moltar - 1297.92 (14) - 92.71 6 - _Lagoona_ - 1293.25 (14) - 92.38 7 - Lopen - 1290.72 (14) - 92.19 8 - NGamer64 - 1289.6 (14) - 92.11 9 - charmander6000 - 1283.15 (14) - 91.65 10 - mentalmike - 1273.65 (14) - 90.98 11 - and now I dance - 1273.41 (14) - 90.96 12 - Justin_Crossing - 1260.04 (14) - 90 13 - SFF_potential - 1242.55 (14) - 88.75 14 - Sephirot1 Returns - 1233.68 (14) - 88.12 15 - WiggumFan267 - 1201.39 (14) - 85.81 16 - ToadYoshi - 182.87 (2) - 91.44 Kaonashi strides into first and we see the first signs of significant parting among the top 3 (5 points I take what I can get) I rebound a bit from my poor showing yesterday and about get back to where I was before, meanwhile Charmander with a fairly poor showing does the same. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Lopen | Posted 10/3/2008 1:29:11 AM | message detail |
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Match #15 Result (Alucard > Captain Falcon) First place correct = 41.12% First place partial = 17.43% Second place correct = 26.54% Second place partial = 35.56% FALCON PUNCHHHH what the hell. I'm sorry... everyone was like "this was obvious" but I really don't see why CF won 2nd here and how it wasn't even close. I still don't. Blindside result of the year for me. Didn't surprise the casual bracketmaker much, though. Match #15 Scoreboard Rank - User - Points (Predictions) 1 - Xcarvenger - 94.48 ( 45.54, 14.41, 34.43, 28.82 ) 2 - _Lagoona_ - 93.82 ( 40, 30, 27, 25 ) 3 - Gaddswell - 93.5 ( 38.67, 28.80, 30.57, 27.41 ) 4 - Justin_Crossing - 93.32 ( 49.67, 28.96, 29.02, 31.40 ) 5 - charmander6000 - 93.23 ( 41.43, 29.35, 28.36, 22.52 ) 6 - th3l3fty - 93.18 ( 47.77, 15.02, 34.21, 25.01 ) 7 - Master Moltar - 92.57 ( 39, 29, 38, 31 ) 8 - mentalmike - 92.1 ( 42.98, 30.01, 35.29, 27.14 ) 9 - WiggumFan267 - 91.82 ( 30, 30, 30, 30 ) 10 - kaonashi1 - 91.04 ( 53.7, 17.1, 32.7, 18.8 ) 11 - Lopen - 88.55 ( 35, 30, 20, 15 ) 12 - Sephirot1 Returns - 88.34 ( 44.78, 37.39, 21.74, 17.32 ) 13 - and now I dance - 87.3 ( 28, 33, 26, 14 ) 14 - SFF_potential - 86.05 ( 37, 42, 22, 13 ) Rough match overall. Xcarvenger makes the top prediction but it doesn't even break 95 points. Most rough, though, is that somehow NGamer64 forgot to predict today. I'm sorry, man, I wish I'd noticed beforehand, I would've reminded you. Maybe I'll make a system where people can miss a match or two and have their average score inserted for it or something? I really don't want people to feel out of the running if they miss just one, ya know? Well, it's a topic for the discussion topic, anyway. Don't give up because of one missed match, NGamer! Current Leaderboard Rank - User - Total (#of match) - Average 1 - Xcarvenger - 1422.12 (15) - 94.81 2 - kaonashi1 - 1421.99 (15) - 94.8 3 - th3l3fty - 1418.18 (15) - 94.55 4 - Gaddswell - 1391.97 (15) - 92.8 5 - Master Moltar - 1390.49 (15) - 92.7 6 - _Lagoona_ - 1387.07 (15) - 92.47 7 - Lopen - 1379.27 (15) - 91.95 8 - charmander6000 - 1376.38 (15) - 91.76 9 - mentalmike - 1365.75 (15) - 91.05 10 - and now I dance - 1360.71 (15) - 90.71 11 - Justin_Crossing - 1353.36 (15) - 90.22 12 - SFF_potential - 1328.6 (15) - 88.57 13 - Sephirot1 Returns - 1322.02 (15) - 88.13 14 - WiggumFan267 - 1293.21 (15) - 86.21 15 - NGamer64 - 1289.6 (14) - 92.11 16 - ToadYoshi - 182.87 (2) - 91.44 Xcarvenger retakes the lead over Kaonashi again. Meanwhile Lagoona distances himself from me, making the battles effectively for 1-3 and 4-6 now. Justin_Crossing seems to be on a roll lately, and is closing the distance to the 9-10 positions in a hurry. NGamer, expectedly, falls way down after missing a match but is just BARELY behind Wiggumfan and his 30s of death despite that. By the end of the contest, even if nothing is done to change the score it's quite possible he could be in contention anyway. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Lopen | Posted 10/3/2008 1:30:51 AM | message detail |
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So yeah... this raises the question: Should I allow one or two misses over the course of the contest to be replaced with "average score?" Is there another solution I should employ instead? Should NGamer just take the hit? Any input? --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Lopen | Posted 10/3/2008 1:31:33 AM | message detail |
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Or maybe not even average.. replace it with the lowest score for the day -5 or something? *shrug* --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| _Lagoona_ | Posted 10/3/2008 6:34:52 AM | message detail |
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.Average points is too much, but I could live with giving the lowest score of the day, maybe also with an additional penalty. If it happens, say, more than three times during the whole contest, it will become too much, but else I'm fine with it. --- .Nobody is perfect, I'm nobody. :-Þ *Blob* |
| Lopen | Posted 10/4/2008 2:45:46 AM | message detail |
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To explain some things: NGamer was given an 81.05 score for yesterday's match, 5 lower than the lowest score. This will be added to his total score, but NOT factored in when determining his average or in listing how many matches he predicted. I wanted that to still reflect only what he did, but still keep him in contention for points. Basically, we'll go with the three strike system: Miss up to three matches over the course of the contest, and you'll get the lowest score -5 for them. Miss more than that and you start eating zeroes. Sound good? I just don't want people to get totally out of the running for the overall rankings if they miss ONE match. Match #16 Result (Pikachu > Arthas Menethil) First place correct = 50.76% First place partial = 34.36% Second place correct = 19.13% Second place partial = 18.73% Dayum. People love Pikachu. Good for them. That's more bracket faith than MEGA MAN X had... amazing, isn't it? Arthas beats Ike in a fairly close match in which an Ike comeback came up just a bit short. Match #16 Scoreboard Rank - User - Points (Predictions) 1 - Master Moltar - 98.19 ( 47, 34, 21, 20 ) 2 - and now I dance - 94.14 ( 59, 22, 19, 16 ) 3 - th3l3fty - 93.98 ( 40.04, 40.04, 24.93, 20.60 ) 4 - Xcarvenger - 93.68 ( 39.11, 41.88, 24.88, 19.11 ) 5 - kaonashi1 - 93.62 ( 44, 38, 25, 28 ) 6 - SFF_potential - 92.75 ( 46, 49, 27, 17 ) 7 - Justin_Crossing - 91.64 ( 55, 17, 19, 7 ) 8 - Gaddswell - 90.97 ( 44.32, 28.17, 35.22, 26.14 ) 9 - mentalmike - 90.63 ( 38.95, 37.54, 30.25, 30.12 ) 10 - NGamer64 - 89.87 ( 44, 36, 33, 37 ) 11 - charmander6000 - 89.66 ( 42.06, 28.43, 35.27, 29.34 ) 12 - _Lagoona_ - 88.94 ( 50, 30, 47, 30 ) 13 - WiggumFan267 - 88.19 ( 30, 30, 30, 30 ) 14 - Sephirot1 Returns - 87.22 ( 52.87, 41.19, 40.05, 39.98 ) 15 - Lopen - 86.95 ( 41.02, 29.03, 41.01, 34.00 ) Damn good prediction from Moltar, scoring over 98 points. Rest of us: Not nearly as much. Prety tough match to call. Mostly due to underestimating Pika. Current Leaderboard Rank - User - Total (#of match) - Average 1 - Xcarvenger - 1515.8 (16) - 94.74 2 - kaonashi1 - 1515.61 (16) - 94.73 3 - th3l3fty - 1512.16 (16) - 94.51 4 - Master Moltar - 1488.68 (16) - 93.04 5 - Gaddswell - 1482.94 (16) - 92.68 6 - _Lagoona_ - 1476.01 (16) - 92.25 7 - Lopen - 1466.22 (16) - 91.64 8 - charmander6000 - 1466.04 (16) - 91.63 9 - NGamer64 - 1460.52 (15) - 91.96 10 - mentalmike - 1456.38 (16) - 91.02 11 - and now I dance - 1454.85 (16) - 90.93 12 - Justin_Crossing - 1445 (16) - 90.31 13 - SFF_potential - 1421.35 (16) - 88.83 14 - Sephirot1 Returns - 1409.24 (16) - 88.08 15 - WiggumFan267 - 1381.4 (16) - 86.34 16 - ToadYoshi - 182.87 (2) - 91.44 Moltar starts to break away from the 4-6 lump with his awesome score today. Xcarvenger and kaonashi are so close to tied for first it's not even funny. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Lopen | Posted 10/5/2008 4:32:28 AM | message detail |
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Not enough of the /Discussion in here. How about them Cubs. ... --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Lopen | Posted 10/5/2008 10:23:48 PM | message detail |
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Match #17 Result (Weighted Companion Cube > Tidus) First place correct = 18.67% First place partial = 19.37% Second place correct = 31.81% Second place partial = 24.52% Wow. I really thought it was just the Portal fanbase that'd be supporting it... but apparently the Internet is even dumber than I thought. No, I don't claim to be unbiased. And no I don't hate the Cube either, but people who are voting for it without being familiar with Portal don't have very high standards for humor, in my books. Apparently most people were surprised at Cube here, despite what the pre-contest poll said. Match #17 Scoreboard Rank - User - Points (Predictions) 1 - charmander6000 - 95.9 ( 19.32, 22.35, 37.56, 31.53 ) 2 - Gaddswell - 94.46 ( 31.89, 23.64, 29.76, 27.14 ) 3 - Sephirot1 Returns - 94.32 ( 12.32, 15.27, 26.25, 31.25 ) 4 - Xcarvenger - 93.69 ( 14.42, 24.41, 42.03, 30.24 ) 5 - mentalmike - 93.67 ( 10, 15, 30, 35 ) 6 - th3l3fty - 93.4 ( 12.24, 23.46, 41.11, 31.11 ) 7 - WiggumFan267 - 92.69 ( 30, 30, 30, 30 ) 8 - NGamer64 - 92.57 ( 13, 18, 36, 43 ) 9 - kaonashi1 - 92.01 ( 5.1, 22.5, 38.4, 33.2 ) 10 - and now I dance - 90.94 ( 27, 35, 29, 34 ) 11 - _Lagoona_ - 90.2 ( 6, 10, 35, 38.5 ) 12 - Master Moltar - 89.69 ( 24, 31, 24, 41 ) 13 - Lopen - 87.34 ( 27, 45, 35, 38 ) 14 - Justin_Crossing - 85.84 ( 25, 41, 54, 31 ) Tough match here. Charmander with 1st place only nabs just barely over 95%. A combination of overestimating both competitors seemed to be the problem, here. SFF_Potential doesn't predict today, we mourn his loss. He'll get 80.84 points for the day according to the rule, but I think he's done considering he hasn't predicted any others either. Current Leaderboard Rank - User - Total (#of match) - Average 1 - Xcarvenger - 1609.49 (17) - 94.68 2 - kaonashi1 - 1607.62 (17) - 94.57 3 - th3l3fty - 1605.56 (17) - 94.44 4 - Master Moltar - 1578.37 (17) - 92.85 5 - Gaddswell - 1577.4 (17) - 92.79 6 - _Lagoona_ - 1566.21 (17) - 92.13 7 - charmander6000 - 1561.94 (17) - 91.88 8 - Lopen - 1553.56 (17) - 91.39 9 - NGamer64 - 1553.09 (16) - 92 10 - mentalmike - 1550.05 (17) - 91.18 11 - and now I dance - 1545.79 (17) - 90.93 12 - Justin_Crossing - 1530.84 (17) - 90.05 13 - Sephirot1 Returns - 1503.56 (17) - 88.44 15 - SFF_potential - 1502.19 (16) - 88.83 14 - WiggumFan267 - 1474.09 (17) - 86.71 16 - ToadYoshi - 182.87 (2) - 91.44 Not much movement on the board today. Charmander overtakes me, and SFF potential falls a spot from the penalty from missing today's match. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
