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Spring 2004 Contest
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Contest Stats & Discussion - Part 17
From: smitelf | Posted: 5/20/2004 6:59:51 PM | Message Detail
Okay, look, have we all gone insane?

There is no way in hell that Starcraft is beating Wind Waker, and I don't think I have to justify this with a reason.


When you wish upon a star
Makes no difference who you are
Anything your heart desires
Will come to you

If your heart is in your dream
No request is too extreme
When you wish upon a star
As dreamers do

Fate is kind
She brings to those to love
The sweet fulfillment of
Their secret longing

Like a bolt out of the blue
Fate steps in and sees you through
When you wish upon a star
Your dreams come truuuuuuue
---
Why do you persist? - Agent Smith
Current Sp2K4 Score: 55/58, Next Winner: Wind Waker
From: Leonhart4 | Posted: 5/20/2004 7:02:14 PM | Message Detail
Ironically, that's the song they play during the Disney World commercials.
---
Spring Contest 2004: 52/58
Today: (4)Metroid Prime over (5)Wind Waker
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 5/20/2004 7:15:04 PM | Message Detail
Well, I think it was popularized due to Pinochio (sp)

Is it possible that SFF might not be as huge a player as seems to be thought? Because, though both share the FF name, Final Fantasy Tacics Advance isn't on the PS2, its on the nintendo system, gameboy advance. So, it isn't too far out there that they don't really share a same fanbase because of the system difference. That could be good for TA because maybe the Nintendo voters will sway towards it. However, since the general consensus seems to be a large victory for FFX, I'm skeptical, because they're have been just so many unexpected percentage differences and even winners.
---
Silly Rabbit...Trix are for....kids.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.-Old Klingon Proverb
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 5/20/2004 7:43:07 PM | Message Detail
Stats are up!!!!
---
"Everything gold does not glitter, Not all those who wander are lost"
From: Leonhart4 | Posted: 5/20/2004 7:47:30 PM | Message Detail
Wow, only 15.62% had Starcraft advancing to the Sweet Sixteen. I'm also surprised that Soul Calibur was actually favored to beat Kingdom Hearts, going by the stats.

There are only two perfects left, one with Mario 3 as the winner and the other with FFVII as the winner. I've noticed that the vast majority of the leaderboard as FFVII as the winner of the contest.
---
Spring Contest 2004: 52/58
Today: (4)Metroid Prime over (5)Wind Waker
From: DomaDragoon | Posted: 5/20/2004 7:49:46 PM | Message Detail
45 UltimaterializerX 55 Final Fantasy VII

Praise be to Ceejus! He hath delivered Ulti's wish upon him!
---
Smart Ask! National Champion (2003)
www.rpgdl.com
From: Tai | Posted: 5/20/2004 7:51:49 PM | Message Detail
YES! STATS ARE UP! OMGMG THE UBER!
---
Welcome to SpC2k4, where you suck if you presume someone else's opinions.- Tai.
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 5/20/2004 7:52:15 PM | Message Detail
Nice job Alliteration Man!!!

good picks, and a great ssb fanfic too :)

9 AlliterationMan 56 Final Fantasy VII
---
Silly Rabbit...Trix are for....kids.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.-Old Klingon Proverb
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 5/20/2004 7:52:19 PM | Message Detail
39 Hentai Master 55 Starcraft
that's nice...
---
"Everything gold does not glitter, Not all those who wander are lost"
From: Z1mZum | Posted: 5/20/2004 7:53:39 PM | Message Detail
Solar is going to have a website he's going to have to update!
---
Mega Man in the Summer Contest '04? You better believe it!
From: Leonhart4 | Posted: 5/20/2004 7:54:00 PM | Message Detail
Unfortunately, I think AlliterationMan has Metroid Prime winning today. Speaking of which, its percentage was pretty low. I expected it to be more than 61% against Half-Life.
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Spring Contest 2004: 52/58
Today: (4)Metroid Prime over (5)Wind Waker
From: creativename | Posted: 5/20/2004 7:54:44 PM | Message Detail
Still two perfect brackets left...impressive. They'll probably stay perfect for a while (though you never know what sort of crazy picks somebody who had Starcraft winning 2 rounds would have). Who knows, maybe both of them picked MP.

SlangEdter41 is at #10, congrats! And Ulti can die happy now.

kaonashi also up there I see.

Top 50 Champion Picks:
27 - Final Fantasy VII
8 - Ocarina of Time
6 - Chrono Trigger
5 - SMB3
2 - Final Fantasy VI
1 - Starcraft
1 - A Link to the Past
---
Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog (click on the galleries)
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 5/20/2004 7:55:04 PM | Message Detail
A decent chunk of people could fall from Metroid Prime, I mean it wasn't a complete blowout for WW, so picking Metroid wasn't too far out.
---
Silly Rabbit...Trix are for....kids.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.-Old Klingon Proverb
From: cyko | Posted: 5/20/2004 7:55:44 PM | Message Detail
congratulations to both Smitelf and UltimaterializerX for making the Top 50!!!! ^_^


27 smitelf 55 Final Fantasy VII

45 UltimaterializerX 55 Final Fantasy VII


where is Ulti? i figured he'd be here the instant his name hit the Top 50, lol.

---
Current Score: 51/56 (through SM64 vs. OOT)
cyko's 256 Game Contest: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14147624
From: Who Cares? | Posted: 5/20/2004 7:56:56 PM | Message Detail
WOW, the majority of us look like fools for projecting KH to coast to the Sweet 16. 45.45% had it beating Soul Calibur. Amazing!
From: Who Cares? | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:00:29 PM | Message Detail
BTW, the other matches were the 'underdog' won were:

Super Mario RPG: 47.83%
Xenogears: 48.2%
Starcraft (Twice): 24.09%, 15.62%
From: Tai | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:00:35 PM | Message Detail
Halo: Combat Evolved
Starcraft 24.09%

Starcraft
Kingdom Hearts 15.62%

Can you say BRACKET BUSTER'D. XD


---
Welcome to SpC2k4, where you suck if you presume someone else's opinions.- Tai.
From: Leonhart4 | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:02:07 PM | Message Detail
Heh, how low do you think the percentage would be if StarCraft beat Wind Waker? Probably 5% or less, I think.
---
Spring Contest 2004: 52/58
Today: (4)Metroid Prime over (5)Wind Waker
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:02:14 PM | Message Detail
I added, most likely incorrectly, 40934 brackets for this contest. How many less than that was it for the summer? Wasn't it around 75k?
---
Silly Rabbit...Trix are for....kids.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.-Old Klingon Proverb
From: creativename | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:03:06 PM | Message Detail
I'm also surprised that Soul Calibur was actually favored to beat Kingdom Hearts, going by the stats.

Damn, I didn't even notice that. That's amazing, considering how big of a board favorite it was.

And I didn't see smitelf up there either, congrats to her too. Good job.

I hope Ceej gives us the # of picks per match, instead of just the %...I'll have to put estimated numbers into my database, that might be off by up to 5 brackets.
---
Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog (click on the galleries)
From: DomaDragoon | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:03:28 PM | Message Detail
Am I the only one who finds it vaguely disturbing that more people expected LoZ I to advance to Round 2 than Mario 3, FF VII, CT, or LttP? Adventure be spooned, that's just a bit frightening to me.
---
Smart Ask! National Champion (2003)
www.rpgdl.com
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:06:50 PM | Message Detail
I'm one of the 52 (out of 76) people who have a score of 55 but got shafted and didn't get on the leaderboard :-(
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Contest status: 57/60 points through The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker vs. Metroid Prime.
From: creativename | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:06:59 PM | Message Detail
40934 brackets for this contest. How many less than that was it for the summer? Wasn't it around 75k?

40,940 by my count, someone please verify. Last summer had 41,059 brackets, before that was 16,764.

Am I the only one who finds it vaguely disturbing that more people expected LoZ I to advance to Round 2 than Mario 3, FF VII, CT, or LttP? Adventure be spooned, that's just a bit frightening to me.

People have actually had to have heard of games to make looney picks for them. Nobody had ever heard of Adventure. Same reason A Link to the Past had such a high prediction %.
---
Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog (click on the galleries)
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:07:39 PM | Message Detail
Oh yeah, and someone should update the top 10 all-time stats with the prediction data (LoZ vs. Adventure should be close to Link vs. AiAi).
---
Contest status: 57/60 points through The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker vs. Metroid Prime.
From: smitelf | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:08:15 PM | Message Detail
w00t! I am on teh leaderboard!

...until Saturday, that is...:)
---
Why do you persist? - Agent Smith
Current Sp2K4 Score: 55/58, Next Winner: Wind Waker
From: BigCow | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:12:09 PM | Message Detail
There have been 5 percentage upsets so far.

Last contest upsets by this point:

Ganondorf winning, 47.7%
KOS-MOS winning, 42.5%
Zero winning, 47.3%
Shadow winning, 42.1%
Kefka winning, 43.5%
Magus winning, 24.2%
Squall winning, 38.1%
Bowser winning, 40.6%
Aeris winning, 45.9%
Alucard winning, 40.4%

So 10 non majority wins. That's twice as much as this contest... although at 15.62% for starcraft winning round two, only a few matches can beat that:

Cloud beating Link, 13.4%
MegaMan beating Snake, 14.5%
Cloud winning overall, 6%

Link winning first contest, 12.8%
Crono beating Snake, 14.6%

So Starcraft winning the second round is the sixth least likely event in gamefaqs contest history. Good for it.

This contest's percentage upsets (i.e., the majority was wrong)

Super Mario RPG 47.83%
Xenogears 48.2%
Starcraft 24.09%
Kingdom Hearts 45.45%
Starcraft 15.62%

Starcraft is the only bracket buster this time around, quite honestly.
---
The Insane A-Team: Trivia XII team
Gamefaqs Fanfic Project Archive: http://www.rose-hulman.edu/~newheims/ffproj.htm
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:12:45 PM | Message Detail
Halo: Combat Evolved
Starcraft 24.09%

Starcraft
Kingdom Hearts 15.62%

No matter which way you look at it, isn't 15% a damn lot for a 16-seed to win 2 matches???
And most who had Starcraft winning against Halo had it winning against its Round 2 opponent too... much more than I expected!
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"Everything gold does not glitter, Not all those who wander are lost"
From: Who Cares? | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:12:54 PM | Message Detail
BTW, did anyone notice the percentage on Donkey Kong/Duck Hunt, 73.22%.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:14:37 PM | Message Detail
I love looking at these stats. =)
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
You are doing well, lad. But can you break through this secret technique of Darkness?
From: Tarrot | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:20:14 PM | Message Detail
Starcraft has quite a few fans. It was the biggest wildcard of the entire tournament. Those who picked it to beat Halo would think nothing of it beating KH or SC. I don't see that as a big shock honestly.

And it's now official that DH lost because of bracket voters. Thank You and Good Night.
From: smitelf | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:21:07 PM | Message Detail
Dear Satan,

You know the deal. I'll throw in Ulti's soul if you can wrangle a win for Vice City on Saturday.

Kissy kissy,

smitelf

P.S. Thanks for making me the first person with 55 points on the leaderboard. Hope my brother's soul is to your satisfaction.
---
Why do you persist? - Agent Smith
Current Sp2K4 Score: 55/58, Next Winner: Wind Waker
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:28:54 PM | Message Detail
Rebecca, you`re a loser =) I love you, but you`re a loser. And it has nothing to do with the stats, either. You had the gall to say that Troy sucked. Are you on drugs? Has your very existence been tained so much by my prescence that you would honestly believe Troy to be a poor movie?

Explain yourself, please.

And yes, I can die in peace, much like *SPOILER FOR TROY*

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Achilles
---
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: smitelf | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:32:18 PM | Message Detail
Rebecca, you`re a loser =) I love you, but you`re a loser. And it has nothing to do with the stats, either. You had the gall to say that Troy sucked. Are you on drugs? Has your very existence been tained so much by my prescence that you would honestly believe Troy to be a poor movie?

Explain yourself, please.


Troy does suck. How can anyone think otherwise? The acting was horrible, the cinematography was horrible, the gameplay was horrib -- uh, heh, never mind about that last one. Not only that but half the movie was close-ups of Brad Pitt's face. Bleh. They should have called it "The Brad Pitt Show". Ugh.

*pukes on Ulti*

Oh, and I usually go by Becky, FYI :)
---
Why do you persist? - Agent Smith
Current Sp2K4 Score: 55/58, Next Winner: Wind Waker
From: cyko | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:33:33 PM | Message Detail
All Matches in order they were predicted correctly:


1. The Legend of Zelda vs. Adventure 99.02%
2. Zelda: A Link to the Past vs. Gunstar Heroes 97.75%
3. Final Fantasy VII vs. Suikoden II 96.76%
4. Final Fantasy vs. Pitfall 96.46%
5. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs. Fallout 2 96.32%
6. Super Mario World vs. The Simpsons 95.91%
7. Super Mario 64 vs. NiGHTS into dreams... 94.65%
8. Goldeneye vs. Panzer Dragoon Saga 92.61%
9. Final Fantasy X vs. Shenmue 92.24%
10. Chrono Trigger vs. Secret of Mana 92.2%
11. The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker vs. Skies of Arcadia 92%
12. Super Metroid vs. Phantasy Star IV 91.08%
13. (ii) Final Fantasy VII vs. Xenogears 89.52%
14. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 vs. Shining Force 89.25%
15. Tetris vs. Galaga 88.6%
16. (ii) Donkey Kong vs. The Legend of Zelda 87.68%
17. Super Mario Bros. 3 vs. Meal Gear 86.56%
18. (ii) Contra vs. Final Fantasy 82.01%
19. (ii) Super Mario 64 vs. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 81.93%
20. Final Fantasy Tactics Advance vs. Fire Emblem 81.7%
21. Final Fantasy III (VI) vs. Mortal Kombat 81.14%
22. Metal Gear Solid vs. Resident Evil 80.99%
23. Final Fantasy Tactics vs. Dance Dance Revolution 79.9%
24. Grand Theft Auto: Vice City vs. Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic 79.11%
25. Metroid vs. Pac-Man 76.22%
26. (ii) The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past vs. Super Metroid 73.42%
27. Donkey Kong vs. Duck Hunt 73.22%
28. (ii) Chrono Trigger vs. Super Mario RPG 73.2%
29. (ii) Sonic the Hedgehog 2 vs. Super Mario World 72.98%
30. (ii) Super Mario Bros. 3 vs. Metroid 72.04%
31. Pong vs. River City Ransom 71.71%
32. (ii) Pong vs. Tetris 71.52%
33. (ii) Doom vs. Final Fantasy III (VI) 66.89%
34. (ii) Castlevania: Symphony of the Nighy vs. Goldeneye 62.26%
35. Earthbound vs. Doom 61.92%
36. Super Smash Bros. Melee vs. Metal Gear Solid 2 60.69%
37. Metroid Prime vs. Half-Life 56.97%
38. Phantasy Star vs. Contra 56.4%
39. (ii) Final Fantasy Tactics vs. Metal Gear Solid 54.77%
40. Perfect Dark vs. Castlevania: Symphony of the Night 53.25%
41. Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal vs. Xenogears 48.2%
42. Super Mario RPG vs. Street Fighter II 47.83%
43. Soul Calibur vs. Kingdom Hearts 45.45%
44. Halo: Combat Evolved vs. Starcraft 24.09%
45. (ii) Starcraft vs. Kingdom Hearts 15.62%

---
Current Score: 51/56 (through SM64 vs. OOT)
cyko's 256 Game Contest: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14147624
From: cyko | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:33:52 PM | Message Detail
First Round matches in the order they were Predicted Correctly:

1. The Legend of Zelda vs. Adventure 99.02%
2. Zelda: A Link to the Past vs. Gunstar Heroes 97.75%
3. Final Fantasy VII vs. Suikoden II 96.76%
4. Final Fantasy vs. Pitfall 96.46%
5. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs. Fallout 2 96.32%
6. Super Mario World vs. The Simpsons 95.91%
7. Super Mario 64 vs. NiGHTS into dreams... 94.65%
8. Goldeneye vs. Panzer Dragoon Saga 92.61%
9. Final Fantasy X vs. Shenmue 92.24%
10. Chrono Trigger vs. Secret of Mana 92.2%
11. The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker vs. Skies of Arcadia 92%
12. Super Metroid vs. Phantasy Star IV 91.08%
13. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 vs. Shining Force 89.25%
14. Tetris vs. Galaga 88.6%
15. Super Mario Bros. 3 vs. Meal Gear 86.56%
16. Final Fantasy Tactics Advance vs. Fire Emblem 81.7%
17. Final Fantasy III (VI) vs. Mortal Kombat 81.14%
18. Metal Gear Solid vs. Resident Evil 80.99%
19. Final Fantasy Tactics vs. Dance Dance Revolution 79.9%
20. Grand Theft Auto: Vice City vs. Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic 79.11%
21. Metroid vs. Pac-Man 76.22%
22. Donkey Kong vs. Duck Hunt 73.22%
23. Pong vs. River City Ransom 71.71%
24. Earthbound vs. Doom 61.92%
25. Super Smash Bros. Melee vs. Metal Gear Solid 2 60.69%
26. Metroid Prime vs. Half-Life 56.97%
27. Phantasy Star vs. Contra 56.4%
28. Perfect Dark vs. Castlevania: Symphony of the Night 53.25%
29. Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal vs. Xenogears 48.2%
30. Super Mario RPG vs. Street Fighter II 47.83%
31. Soul Calibur vs. Kingdom Hearts 45.45%
32. Halo: Combat Evolved vs. Starcraft 24.09%

Second Round matches in order they were Predicted Correctly:


1. Final Fantasy VII vs. Xenogears 89.52%
2. Donkey Kong vs. The Legend of Zelda 87.68%
3. Contra vs. Final Fantasy 82.01%
4. Super Mario 64 vs. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 81.93%
5. The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past vs. Super Metroid 73.42%
6. Chrono Trigger vs. Super Mario RPG 73.2%
7. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 vs. Super Mario World 72.98%
8. Super Mario Bros. 3 vs. Metroid 72.04%
9. Pong vs. Tetris 71.52%
10. Doom vs. Final Fantasy III (VI) 66.89%
11. Castlevania: Symphony of the Night vs. Goldeneye 62.26%
12. Final Fantasy Tactics vs. Metal Gear Solid 54.77%
13. Starcraft vs. Kingdom Hearts 15.62%

---
Current Score: 51/56 (through SM64 vs. OOT)
cyko's 256 Game Contest: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14147624
From: smitelf | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:37:42 PM | Message Detail
Oh, and...*deep breath*

*TROY SPOILERS*
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They didn't kill off Paris, Agamemnon was portrayed as some fat politician guy when he was supposed to be a warrior in his own right, Achilles was portrayed as the star of the show, Helen had about ten lines (all crappy) and it was all *about* her, for God's sake, she didn't look pretty enough to be the most beautiful woman ever, Orlando Bloom and she had no chemistry, they killed off Menelaus, Helen escaped, Hector's wife and son escaped, Menelaus was portrayed as some prehistoric version of Fat Bastard, and Menelaus was killed when he shouldn't have been. All this combined makes the movie completely lose the momentum of the story of Troy, not to mention that there were no ****ing GODS, which was also a huge part of the Illiad. Let's not forget that Paris wasn't supposed to be brought up as a prince, and his mother apparently doesn't exist, nor does his sister. Don't even get me started on Briseis. I'm not going there.
*
*
*
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*
SPOILERS ENDED

Oh, and I'm higher on the list than you, Ulti, so nyah. You should have thought to make a satanic sacrifice like I did.
---
Why do you persist? - Agent Smith
Current Sp2K4 Score: 55/58, Next Winner: Wind Waker
From: GunMage | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:37:59 PM | Message Detail
Besides what everyone else has pretty much pointed out, there was one other stat that jumped out at me. Is anyone else a little surprised that only 60.69% thought SSBM would beat MGS2? That seems surprisingly low for a game that has a chance (not that big, but it's there) of winning its division...
---
SpC2K4 - Today's winner: Metroid Prime, 48 pts, (48/58)
Proud supporter of Goldeneye for SpC2K4
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:47:39 PM | Message Detail
Prime`s percentage against Half-Life is more shocking to me. I expected that sort of number for MGS2, to be honest.

Oh, and I'm higher on the list than you, Ulti, so nyah.

What was that? I`m sorry, I tend not to notice someone who actually picks Vice City to beat the legendary SSBM.

And Briseis? I don`t recall that name for some reason. And Pitt was one of the selling points of the movie, so of course they had to portray him as being larger than life. And I`m sorry, but the battle between him and Hector was one of the best scenes I have ever seen in a movie.
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I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:48:42 PM | Message Detail
Oh, and Helen was horrendous in that movie. She wasn`t all that cute, and I certainly wouldn`t start a war over her.

And by the way, the war wasn`t ALL about her. Her husband wanted revenge, her uncle in law wanted Troy.
---
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: smitelf | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:51:07 PM | Message Detail
What was that? I`m sorry, I tend not to notice someone who actually picks Vice City to beat the legendary SSBM.

Legendary my ass. We shall see, Ulti...we shall see...

And Briseis? I don`t recall that name for some reason. And Pitt was one of the selling points of the movie, so of course they had to portray him as being larger than life. And I`m sorry, but the battle between him and Hector was one of the best scenes I have ever seen in a movie.

*POSSIBLE TROY SPOILERS*
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*
Briseis is Achilles' love interest, at least according to the movie. Pitt can't pronounce her name so I'm not surprised you didn't recognize it.

Brad Pitt should not be the selling point of the movie...that is my point. The movie itself should actually be good. And that battle scene was decent but nothing amazing. I was already half asleep by that point, anyway.
---
Why do you persist? - Agent Smith
Current Sp2K4 Score: 55/58, Next Winner: Wind Waker
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:51:32 PM | Message Detail
With the stats here I've got an update for the all time records

All Time Records

Top 10 Biggest Blowouts (difference in percentage)

1) 90.40% - Legend of Zelda vs. Adventure (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
2) 84.60% - Mega Man vs. Ms. Pac-Man (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
3) 83.68% - Mega Man vs. Serious Sam (II) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 82.70% - Link vs. AiAi (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 82.30% - Legend of Zelda: LTTP vs. Gunstar Heroes (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
6) 77.92% - Mega Man vs. Mr. Resetti (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
7) 76.84% - Mario vs. Captain Olimar (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
8) 75.42% - Sephiroth vs. Gabe Logan (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
9) 75.28% - Final Fantasy vs. Pitfall (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
10) 74.08% - Legend of Zelda vs. Donkey Kong (II) from 2004 Spring Contest

Top 10 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 88208 - Legend of Zelda vs. Adventure (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
2) 84196 - Link vs. AiAi (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
3) 80505 - Mega Man vs. Mr. Resetti (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
4) 79918 - Cloud Strife vs. CATS (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 78272 - Legend of Zelda: LTTP vs. Gunstar Heroes (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
6) 77511 - Mario vs. Captain Olimar (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
7) 76348 - Final Fantasy 7 vs. Suikoden 2 (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
8) 74682 - Final Fantasy vs. Pitfall (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
9) 73838 - Crono vs. Tom Nook (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
10) 70809 - Sephiroth vs. Max Payne (II) from 2003 Summer Contest

Top 10 Closest Matches (difference in percentage)

1) 0.04% - Samus Aran vs. Sonic the Hedgehog (III) from 2002 Summer Contest
1) 0.04% - Metal Gear Solid vs. Final Fantasy Tactics (II) from 2004 Spring Contest
3) 0.10% - Mario vs. Crono (V) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 0.10% - Mario vs. Crono (III) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 0.14% - Donkey Kong vs. Duck Hunt (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
6) 0.22% - Mario vs. Cloud Strife (IV) from 2002 Summer Contest
7) 0.34% - Starcraft vs. Halo (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
8) 0.60% - Magus vs. Ganondorf (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
9) 0.96% - Tommy Vercetti vs. Donkey Kong (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
10) 1.02% - Sephiroth vs. Mega Man (III) from 2002 Summer Contest

Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 34 - Samus Aran vs. Sonic the Hedgehog (III) from 2002 Summer Contest
2) 38 - Metal Gear Solid vs. Final Fantasy Tactics (II) from 2004 Spring Contest
3) 115 - Mario vs. Crono (V) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 137 - Mario vs. Crono (III) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 143 - Donkey Kong vs. Duck Hunt (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
6) 277 - Mario vs. Cloud Strife (IV) from 2002 Summer Contest
7) 373 - Starcraft vs. Halo (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
8) 650 - Magus vs. Ganondorf (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
9) 968 - Tommy Vercetti vs. Donkey Kong (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
10) 987 - Sephiroth vs. Mega Man (III) from 2002 Summer Contest

Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 147637 - Cloud Strife vs. Link (V) from 2003 Summer Contest
2) 133005 - Mario vs. Crono (III) from 2003 Summer Contest
3) 129703 - Mario vs. Cloud Strife (IV) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 124443 - Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth (VI) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 124192 - Sephiroth vs. Mega Man (V) from 2003 Summer Contest
6) 123587 - Sephiroth vs. Mario (IV) from 2003 Summer Contest
7) 118961 - Mega Man vs. Solid Snake (IV) from 2003 Summer Contest
8) 116190 - Squall Leonhart vs. Luigi (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
9) 115738 - Ganondorf vs. Tidus (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
10) 113881 - Zelda vs. Lara Croft (I) from 2003 Summer Contest

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LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My Score 51/58 WW vs. MP
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:51:55 PM | Message Detail
Top 10 Least Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 50816 - Max Payne vs. Dirk the Daring (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
2) 51889 - Pac-Man vs. Kyo Kusanagi (II) from 2002 Summer Contest
3) 52419 - Bomberman vs. Kane (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 52618 - Donkey Kong vs. Bub (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
5) 52874 - Duke Nukem vs. Iori Yagami (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
6) 53213 - Mario vs. Servbot (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
7) 53920 - Kyo Kusanagi vs. Abe (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
8) 54997 - Serious Sam vs. Mr. Driller (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
9) 55392 - Ryo Hazuki vs. Guybrush Threepwood (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
10) 56361 - Tina Armstrong vs. Gordon Freeman (I) from 2002 Summer Contest

Top 10 Highest Individual Votes

1) 94086 - Cloud Strife (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
2) 92998 - Link (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
3) 92894 - Legend of Zelda (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
4) 91905 - Mega Man (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 91749 - Final Fantasy 7 (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
6) 90364 - Sephiroth (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
7) 89595 - Sephiroth (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
8) 89189 - Mario (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
9) 88469 - Crono (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
10) 86938 - Final Fantasy (I) from 2004 Spring Contest

Top 10 Lowest Individual Votes

1) 4686 - Adventure (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
2) 5257 - Ms. Pac-Man (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
3) 5414 - Serious Sam (II) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 8418 - Gunstar Heroes (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
5) 8602 - Gabe Logan (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
6) 8802 - AiAi (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
7) 9559 - Donkey Kong (II) from 2004 Spring Contest
8) 11076 - Little Mac (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
9) 11145 - CATS (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
10) 11292 - Pitfall Harry (I) from 2002 Summer Contest

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) 71438 - Link (V) from 2003 Summer Contest
2) 66434 - Crono (III) from 2003 Summer Contest
3) 64713 - Cloud Strife (IV) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 59865 - Sephiroth (VI) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 57078 - Tidus (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
6) 56258 - Halo (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
7) 55322 - Solid Snake (IV) from 2003 Summer Contest
8) 54529 - Ganondorf (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
9) 53716 - Crono (V) from 2002 Summer Contest
10) 50457 - Donkey Kong (II) from 2003 Summer Contest

Top 10 Least Impressive Winners (by votes)

1) 30662 - Strider Hiryu (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
2) 30711 - Pikachu (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
3) 31160 - Kyo Kusanagi (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 31798 - Donkey Kong (II) from 2002 Summer Contest
5) 32301 - Serious Sam (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
6) 32602 - Donkey Kong (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
7) 32607 - Pac-Man (II) from 2002 Summer Contest
8) 33160 - Duke Nukem (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
9) 33516 - Alucard (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
10) 33602 - Sonic the Hedgehog (II) from 2002 Summer Contest

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LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My Score 51/58 WW vs. MP
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:52:39 PM | Message Detail
Top 10 Easiest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) 99.1% - Link vs. AiAi (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
2) 99.02% - The Legend of Zelda vs. Adventure (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
3) 98.0% - Mario vs. Captain Olimar (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
4) 97.75% - Zelda: A Link to the Past vs. Gunstar Heroes (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
5) 96.76% - Final Fantasy VII vs. Suikoden II (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
6) 96.46% - Final Fantasy vs. Pitfall (I) from 2004 Spring Contest

7) 96.4% - Link vs. Little Mac (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
8) 96.32% - The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs. Fallout 2 (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
9) 95.91% - Super Mario World vs. The Simpsons (I) from 2004 Spring Contest

4) 95.9% - Mario vs. Servbot (I) from 2002 Summer Contest

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) 6.0% - Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth (VI) from 2003 Summer Contest
2) 12.8% - Link vs. Mario (VI) from 2002 Summer Contest
3) 13.4% - Cloud Strife vs. Link (V) from 2003 Summer Contest
4) 14.5% - Mega Man vs. Solid Snake (IV) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 14.6% - Crono vs. Solid Snake (IV) from 2002 Summer Contest
6) 15.62% - Starcraft vs. Kingdom Hearts (II) from 2004 Spring Contest
7) 17.3% - Scorpion vs. Pac-Man (III) from 2002 Summer Contest
8) 21.7% - Sephiroth vs. Mega Man (V) from 2003 Summer Contest
9) 24.09% - Starcraft vs. Halo: Combat Evolved (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
10) 24.2% - Magus vs. Ganondorf (II) from 2003 Summer Contest

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LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My Score 51/58 WW vs. MP
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:54:05 PM | Message Detail
Oh, HER! He was pronouncing it Per-say-us.
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I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: smitelf | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:54:40 PM | Message Detail
POSSIBLE TROY SPOILERS...AGAIN
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And by the way, the war wasn`t ALL about her. Her husband wanted revenge, her uncle in law wanted Troy.

But Agamemnon would have had an...interesting time of getting all those kings to go with him to war against Troy were it not for their vow to defend Menelaus' right to Helen. Troy would not have fallen w/o Helen and Paris running off together...that is why Paris was abandoned as a baby since he was supposed to bring the ruin of Troy...but oh, wait, that wasn't explained in the movie, either!
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END SPOILERS

And I'm still waiting for the glorious moment where SSMB falls and I laugh at you. Laugh, I say! Wahahahaha!
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Why do you persist? - Agent Smith
Current Sp2K4 Score: 55/58, Next Winner: Wind Waker
From: smitelf | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:57:03 PM | Message Detail
Oh, HER! He was pronouncing it Per-say-us.

I know, that's because he sucks. Her name is Briseis.

And I'm not wasting any more precious posts on that stupid movie in this topic. Promise.
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Why do you persist? - Agent Smith
Current Sp2K4 Score: 55/58, Next Winner: Wind Waker
From: cyko | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:58:21 PM | Message Detail
my observation about the prediction stats:

- first of all, according to the Stats Page SMB3 beat MEAL GEAR instead of METAL GEAR.

- i am shocked at how few brackets picked SMB3 to win its first two matches, especially considering the beatings it laid down - only 17th overall for its first match and 15th best out of the first round matches. that means about half of the first round matches were predicted better than SMB3 vs. Metal Gear. and SMB3 over Metroid was 8th out of second round matches; again about half of the rounds matches were predicted better. more people have Final Fantasy in the second round than SMB3!!

if SMB3 beats Zelda 1, it might actually be a bracket upset. heck, SMB3 vs. FF might even be evenly split.

- so far, only one match in the second round was predicted correctly by less than half of the brackets, compared to four in the first round.

- if Duck Hunt would have finished it's comeback, only 26.78% of the brackets would've gotten that one right.

- i'm still a bit surprised about how huge of a board favorite Kingdom Hearts was considering it was the bracket underdog.

- look at how few people picked Metroid Prime. 0_o only 57%. that means that Prime definitely does not have the bracket advantage, yet is still holding its own against Wind Waker.

- double dang. 0_0 look again at how few people picked SSBM over MGS2 compared to Vice City over KOTOR. their matches had comparable end results, but almost 20% more people had Vice City winning. either KOTOR was severely underestimated or Vice City doesn't look very strong going in against SSBM.

- look at how few brackets took FF6 to round three. only two thirds of the brackets did, even though it was the unanimous board favorite. that's fourth lowest this round so far. FF6 could upset LTTP and it would probably be the biggest Round Three bracket upset. well, except the miracle of Starcraft beating Wind Waker, lol.

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Current Score: 51/56 (through SM64 vs. OOT)
cyko's 256 Game Contest: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14147624
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:58:54 PM | Message Detail
Exactly as I expected, the stats go up while I'm at work.

Shadow's record for lowest pick percentage in the first round has been annihilated... someone go check, but I think Starcraft's FIRST ROUND percentage is lower than Magus' SECOND ROUND percentage, which is the record for the second round.

Shocking that Soul Calibur was the favorite... I was a little surprised at SF2 too, given the "Mario" and the "RPG".

87% for SMB3? WTF kinda joke it was.

And I agree, Prime and SSBM were ridiculously low too.

Conclusion? The BOP seems more reliable than the totality of the brackets - Starcraft had a higher percentage of brackets beating Halo in the BOP than overall.

MGS being ahead of FFT is a shocker too - it had by far the strongest first round opponent.

C'mon, you gotta be kidding me. Pikachu gets annihilated TWICE in Summer Contests and Pokémon is STILL favored over Xenogears? See what I was talking about when I said the BOP seemed more reliable?
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 051/058 --- Matches: 39/45 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Wind Waker
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:59:11 PM | Message Detail
To be honest, Vice City has a damned good chance of beating SSBM. The game just wasn`t my cup of tea, that`s all. Furthermore, compare the total votes of the Vice City poll to the SSBM poll. Ouchies.
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I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: smitelf | Posted: 5/20/2004 8:59:57 PM | Message Detail
either KOTOR was severely underestimated or Vice City doesn't look very strong going in against SSBM.

*doesn't* look very strong???
---
Why do you persist? - Agent Smith
Current Sp2K4 Score: 55/58, Next Winner: Wind Waker
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