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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 142
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 6/19/2005 8:27:37 PM | Message Detail
Yep, Kefka blew a division that was designed for him to win. He did what was expected of him.
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SC2K5 Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Terra, Serge, Zidane, Revolver Ocelot, Tifa Lockheart, Kerrigan, Leon Kennedy, Lloyd Irving
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 6/19/2005 8:28:31 PM | Message Detail
Ah, I forgot that cn uses a stronger Link. And since when did this contest make sense anyway? I think it's quite obvious that Sephiroth fell, Bowser rose, and Liquid sucks, and that's about all the conclusions we can draw from the Spring contest.
---
Noms: Kerrigan, Leon, Lloyd, Ocelot, Lugi, Kefka, Magus, Frog, Terra, and Kratos.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 6/19/2005 8:29:05 PM | Message Detail
By the numbers he did what was expected of him.
---
Noms: Kerrigan, Leon, Lloyd, Ocelot, Lugi, Kefka, Magus, Frog, Terra, and Kratos.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 6/19/2005 8:30:45 PM | Message Detail
Either that, or Metal Gear collapses against Final Fantasy VII...
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SC2K5 Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Terra, Serge, Zidane, Revolver Ocelot, Tifa Lockheart, Kerrigan, Leon Kennedy, Lloyd Irving
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 6/19/2005 8:30:48 PM | Message Detail
I just do not agree with the idea that Sephiroth fell, especially by what I've heard you put him at.

---
Nominate Vincent Valentine for the Summer Contest 2005.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/contest_nominate.php
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 6/19/2005 8:31:21 PM | Message Detail
Heh, that division was designed for all our asses to be handed on a silver platter, not for Kefka to win...and serve it did for many of us. Don't forget though, for what it's worth, Diablo didn't get linkage from diabloii.net against Ganon...so that makes the entire Ruin Division slightly under-rated (how under-rated, hey, it's your guess against mine).
---
Serious Reminder: Nominate Arbiter for 2k5
Serious Reminder: Nominate Tifa Lockheart for 2k5, too
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 6/19/2005 8:31:23 PM | Message Detail
Blarg, cn uses a weaker Link. The 20XXDF is 2% on my Link and 3.6% on his.
---
Noms: Kerrigan, Leon, Lloyd, Ocelot, Lugi, Kefka, Magus, Frog, Terra, and Kratos.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 6/19/2005 8:32:13 PM | Message Detail
Regardless, Ceej set that division up so Kefka would win.
---
SC2K5 Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Terra, Serge, Zidane, Revolver Ocelot, Tifa Lockheart, Kerrigan, Leon Kennedy, Lloyd Irving
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 6/19/2005 8:32:51 PM | Message Detail
I put him a bit above Samus. Is that really that hard to believe? I know you've suddenly become enamored of him after spending every other post hating on him in the Spring contest, but surely you can't deny that he's weaker than he was in 2k4.
---
Noms: Kerrigan, Leon, Lloyd, Ocelot, Lugi, Kefka, Magus, Frog, Terra, and Kratos.
From: Shivan Reincarnated | Posted: 6/19/2005 8:33:15 PM | Message Detail
1 - UltimaterializerX
2 - Ngamer64
3 - yoblazer33
4 - Team Rocket Elite
5 - Mister Mario
6 - HaRRicH
7 - NewLib
8 - Heroic Mario
9 - RPGGamer0
10- Tirofog
11 - Haste2
12 - Fiop
13 - Starion
14 - Lopen
15 - greatone10
16 - MegatokyoEd
17 - SonicRaptor
18 - Lucid Faia
19 - Draco1214
20 - Gr8CyberMonkey
21 - Heroic Viktor (tnote)
22 - Undeniable
23 - CaptainFlufflez
24 - Dranze
25 - Vile Requiem
26 - Forceful Dragon
27 - Lieutenant Kettch
28 - swirldude
29 - andaca
30 - Ed_Bellis
31 - RPGuy96
32 - Janus5000
33 - Dilated Chemist
34 - Applekidjosh
35 - Mac Arrowny
36 - Z1mZum
37 - Link Jr
38 - Aprosenf
39 - Chinballz
40 - somdude04
41 - Buzzup
42 - Silverflame
43 - cavedog0
44 - Shake
45 - Lettuce Kefka
46 - Rufus Shinra 18
47 - Gooper Blooper
48 - Ringworm
49 - stepintothearena
50 - Zylo the wolf
51 - Fantusta
52 - XxSoulxX
53 - Heroic Gamma Ray
54 - jonthomson
55 - Master Moltar
56 - XIII is cool
57 - Tediz247
58 - charmander6000
59 - plasmabeam
60 - Phediuk
61 - alpha door
62 - ExThaNemesis
63 - Tai
64 - Shdwdde
65 - VicPez
66 - Sir Bormun
67 - Tjian
68 - Brainstruck
69 - ChichiriMuyo
70 - ShinDragon (sidharta)
71 - Brett with Atreyu
72 - Smurf87
73 - DeeJayDragon
74 - Weird Kirby Dude11
75 - DomaDragoon
76 - dragoontheguy
77 - Radix
78 - rpgapzx
79 - PugTheNinja
80 - Kaxon
81 - FastFalcon05
82 - ubarn
83 - King Morgoth
84 - Mithrandir1331
85 - cyko
86 - Fett0001
87 - SecondBest
88 - Shivan Reincarnated

---
Feel the pain… of those inferior beings… as you burn in hell! ~ Kratos Aurion
From: Kaxon | Posted: 6/19/2005 8:34:26 PM | Message Detail
I don't know why people are getting interested in a Sonic/Mario match. Sure, it might be SOMEWHAT interesting, but I don't see Sonic being able to pull it off.

Sonic ranked above Mega Man in last year's unadjusted stats. I think a match between them would be very competetive.

I'd much rather see the satisfaction of whether he can beat Solid Snake. Snake HAS done better against common opponents.

I'm not opposed to seeing a match between Snake and Sonic, the problem is that it's only one good match. What do you do after that? Snake essentially has no prayer of beating anyone in the noble nine except for Sonic. With a Sonic/Mega Man/Mario triangle, you get two good matches instead of one.
---
SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Congrats to yoblazer, the Guru contest winner!
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 6/19/2005 8:35:07 PM | Message Detail
From what I recall, you had him put underneath Mario. Slightly above Samus makes far more sense, but I wouldn't believe that Link could hit 60% on him. But I have no idea just where he ends up by what you calculate.

---
Nominate Vincent Valentine for the Summer Contest 2005.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/contest_nominate.php
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 6/19/2005 8:35:17 PM | Message Detail
Well, by that logic, Sonic blew it too; just because a division is named for ya doesn't mean it was designed for you to win. Granted, Kefka's road to success was much easier than Sonic's, but Sonic's on a much higher level than Kefka too; it almost evens out if Samus wasn't so strong.
---
Serious Reminder: Nominate Arbiter for 2k5
Serious Reminder: Nominate Tifa Lockheart for 2k5, too
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 6/19/2005 8:37:01 PM | Message Detail
A division containing the likes of Samus, Mega Man, and Sephiroth cannot be considered a division designed for Sonic to win. The Ruin Division did not contain any of the characters we KNEW could beat Kefka. The whole idea was that it was a division he could/should win.
---
SC2K5 Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Terra, Serge, Zidane, Revolver Ocelot, Tifa Lockheart, Kerrigan, Leon Kennedy, Lloyd Irving
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 6/19/2005 8:37:21 PM | Message Detail
No, static (2k3) Bowser has him around Mario. I've always said that was rather silly, and if you recall I said it was obvious that Bowser got a boost. As much as I would love to see Mario over Seph, the chances of that happening are near zero.
---
Noms: Kerrigan, Leon, Lloyd, Ocelot, Lugi, Kefka, Magus, Frog, Terra, and Kratos.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 6/19/2005 8:37:59 PM | Message Detail
Meh, I was thinking of the 2002 West, not the 2004 Chaos Division. Still, the point stands, especially considering we knew Samus had beaten Sonic previously.
---
SC2K5 Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Terra, Serge, Zidane, Revolver Ocelot, Tifa Lockheart, Kerrigan, Leon Kennedy, Lloyd Irving
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 6/19/2005 8:38:36 PM | Message Detail
I was talkin' 'bout 2k4, not 2k2.
---
Serious Reminder: Nominate Arbiter for 2k5
Serious Reminder: Nominate Tifa Lockheart for 2k5, too
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 6/19/2005 8:39:23 PM | Message Detail
Incidentally, my 2k5 Seph ends up at 42.48% on 2k3 Link, 39% on my 2k4 Link, and 39.61% on cn's 2k4 Link.
---
Noms: Kerrigan, Leon, Lloyd, Ocelot, Lugi, Kefka, Magus, Frog, Terra, and Kratos.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 6/19/2005 8:39:59 PM | Message Detail
Agreed Mumei, Rocher is good. dunno how that solves the problem of me hating the taste of coffee though. Well, other than an alternative to Kahlua...
---
Yoblazer just kicked my ass!
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 6/19/2005 8:40:08 PM | Message Detail
I certainly agree that thinking Bowser remained static between 2003 and now is certainly rather silly. However, I don't believe his increase was anything really that big. I haven't checked up on where he ends up with that increase, but it something I plan to do at some point...

---
Nominate Vincent Valentine for the Summer Contest 2005.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/contest_nominate.php
From: outback | Posted: 6/19/2005 8:40:16 PM | Message Detail
1 - UltimaterializerX
2 - Ngamer64
3 - yoblazer33
4 - Team Rocket Elite
5 - Mister Mario
6 - HaRRicH
7 - NewLib
8 - Heroic Mario
9 - RPGGamer0
10- Tirofog
11 - Haste2
12 - Fiop
13 - Starion
14 - Lopen
15 - greatone10
16 - MegatokyoEd
17 - SonicRaptor
18 - Lucid Faia
19 - Draco1214
20 - Gr8CyberMonkey
21 - Heroic Viktor (tnote)
22 - Undeniable
23 - CaptainFlufflez
24 - Dranze
25 - Vile Requiem
26 - Forceful Dragon
27 - Lieutenant Kettch
28 - swirldude
29 - andaca
30 - Ed_Bellis
31 - RPGuy96
32 - Janus5000
33 - Dilated Chemist
34 - Applekidjosh
35 - Mac Arrowny
36 - Z1mZum
37 - Link Jr
38 - Aprosenf
39 - Chinballz
40 - somdude04
41 - Buzzup
42 - Silverflame
43 - cavedog0
44 - Shake
45 - Lettuce Kefka
46 - Rufus Shinra 18
47 - Gooper Blooper
48 - Ringworm
49 - stepintothearena
50 - Zylo the wolf
51 - Fantusta
52 - XxSoulxX
53 - Heroic Gamma Ray
54 - jonthomson
55 - Master Moltar
56 - XIII is cool
57 - Tediz247
58 - charmander6000
59 - plasmabeam
60 - Phediuk
61 - alpha door
62 - ExThaNemesis
63 - Tai
64 - Shdwdde
65 - VicPez
66 - Sir Bormun
67 - Tjian
68 - Brainstruck
69 - ChichiriMuyo
70 - ShinDragon (sidharta)
71 - Brett with Atreyu
72 - Smurf87
73 - DeeJayDragon
74 - Weird Kirby Dude11
75 - DomaDragoon
76 - dragoontheguy
77 - Radix
78 - rpgapzx
79 - PugTheNinja
80 - Kaxon
81 - FastFalcon05
82 - ubarn
83 - King Morgoth
84 - Mithrandir1331
85 - cyko
86 - Fett0001
87 - SecondBest
88 - Shivan Reincarnated
89 - outback
---
IT'S COMMANDER BAUKER! (TEAM ??????)
http://img132.exs.cx/my.php?loc=img132&image=bawk8ko.jpg
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 6/19/2005 8:42:09 PM | Message Detail
I haven't checked up on where he ends up with that increase, but it something I plan to do at some point...

I'll save you the trouble; right around 2k3 Tidus. Specifically, 34.37% on 2k3 Link.
---
Noms: Kerrigan, Leon, Lloyd, Ocelot, Lugi, Kefka, Magus, Frog, Terra, and Kratos.
From: Kaxon | Posted: 6/19/2005 8:59:54 PM | Message Detail
I'd take Bowser over Solid without much trouble; if you don't, you assume Solid would get 40+% on Sephiroth. Considering Mega Man has beaten Solid twice and had last beaten him with about 57%, then considering Sephiroth has beaten Mega Man twice and had last beaten him with about 61%, then considering the drop Solid took between 2k3 and 2k4 and the drop Liquid took between 2k4 and Spring 2k5...there's essentially no chance of him breaking 40% on Sephiroth.

I don't think the Liquid drop has much bearing on Snake, since Liquid was overrated to begin with. So let's just look at the actual numbers. Snake got 42.81% on MM last summer, and Bowser got 40.45% on Sephiroth. For Snake to be equal to Bowser, MM would have to be able to get 47.24% on today's Seph. We know Sephiroth has dropped twice in a row, so I'd rate that as "possible but not likely". The numbers are definitely in Bowser's favor... but I would still have a hard time taking Bowser over Snake.
---
SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Congrats to yoblazer, the Guru contest winner!
From: Tjian | Posted: 6/19/2005 9:00:24 PM | Message Detail
Does anyone know how well I would have done for the guru's from this villians contest? I remember signing my name, leaving my bracket, but I was nowhere mentioned. The only matches I had wrong were Kuja/Hand and Kuja/Robot.

Also, here are my noms if anyone cares:
Diablo - Diablo
Lloyd - Tales of Symphonia
Leon Kennedy - Resident Evil
Vincent Valentine - Final Fantasy
Megaman - Megaman
Protoman - Megaman
Kalas - Baten Kaitos: Eternal Wings and the Lost Ocean
Bub - Bobble Bobble
Ephraim - Fire Emblem: The Sacred Stones
Sarah Kerrigan - Starcraft
---
Happiness is like peeing on yourself. Everyone can see it, but only you feel it's warmth.
From: A worlds envy | Posted: 6/19/2005 9:01:55 PM | Message Detail
1 - UltimaterializerX
2 - Ngamer64
3 - yoblazer33
4 - Team Rocket Elite
5 - Mister Mario
6 - HaRRicH
7 - NewLib
8 - Heroic Mario
9 - RPGGamer0
10- Tirofog
11 - Haste2
12 - Fiop
13 - Starion
14 - Lopen
15 - greatone10
16 - MegatokyoEd
17 - SonicRaptor
18 - Lucid Faia
19 - Draco1214
20 - Gr8CyberMonkey
21 - Heroic Viktor (tnote)
22 - Undeniable
23 - CaptainFlufflez
24 - Dranze
25 - Vile Requiem
26 - Forceful Dragon
27 - Lieutenant Kettch
28 - swirldude
29 - andaca
30 - Ed_Bellis
31 - RPGuy96
32 - Janus5000
33 - Dilated Chemist
34 - Applekidjosh
35 - Mac Arrowny
36 - Z1mZum
37 - Link Jr
38 - Aprosenf
39 - Chinballz
40 - somdude04
41 - Buzzup
42 - Silverflame
43 - cavedog0
44 - Shake
45 - Lettuce Kefka
46 - Rufus Shinra 18
47 - Gooper Blooper
48 - Ringworm
49 - stepintothearena
50 - Zylo the wolf
51 - Fantusta
52 - XxSoulxX
53 - Heroic Gamma Ray
54 - jonthomson
55 - Master Moltar
56 - XIII is cool
57 - Tediz247
58 - charmander6000
59 - plasmabeam
60 - Phediuk
61 - alpha door
62 - ExThaNemesis
63 - Tai
64 - Shdwdde
65 - VicPez
66 - Sir Bormun
67 - Tjian
68 - Brainstruck
69 - ChichiriMuyo
70 - ShinDragon (sidharta)
71 - Brett with Atreyu
72 - Smurf87
73 - DeeJayDragon
74 - Weird Kirby Dude11
75 - DomaDragoon
76 - dragoontheguy
77 - Radix
78 - rpgapzx
79 - PugTheNinja
80 - Kaxon
81 - FastFalcon05
82 - ubarn
83 - King Morgoth
84 - Mithrandir1331
85 - cyko
86 - Fett0001
87 - SecondBest
88 - Shivan Reincarnated
89 - outback
90 - A worlds envy
---
"If you were a man, it would be go time now."
"No, if you were a man, you wouldn't be afraid of a little kitty cat!" - Bucky Katt
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 6/19/2005 9:18:14 PM | Message Detail
Incidentally, I'm about 3 hours into Suikoden II and Luca Blight has already made Kefka look like a saint in comparison. I can see why the fanbase rallies around him so much. It's a pity said fanbase isn't very big...
---
Noms: Kerrigan, Leon, Lloyd, Ocelot, Lugi, Kefka, Magus, Frog, Terra, and Kratos.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 6/19/2005 9:19:18 PM | Message Detail
Off-topic, but Robert Horry is my hero.
---
SC2K5 Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Terra, Serge, Zidane, Revolver Ocelot, Tifa Lockheart, Kerrigan, Leon Kennedy, Lloyd Irving
From: Crono801 | Posted: 6/19/2005 9:23:25 PM | Message Detail
1 - UltimaterializerX
2 - Ngamer64
3 - yoblazer33
4 - Team Rocket Elite
5 - Mister Mario
6 - HaRRicH
7 - NewLib
8 - Heroic Mario
9 - RPGGamer0
10- Tirofog
11 - Haste2
12 - Fiop
13 - Starion
14 - Lopen
15 - greatone10
16 - MegatokyoEd
17 - SonicRaptor
18 - Lucid Faia
19 - Draco1214
20 - Gr8CyberMonkey
21 - Heroic Viktor (tnote)
22 - Undeniable
23 - CaptainFlufflez
24 - Dranze
25 - Vile Requiem
26 - Forceful Dragon
27 - Lieutenant Kettch
28 - swirldude
29 - andaca
30 - Ed_Bellis
31 - RPGuy96
32 - Janus5000
33 - Dilated Chemist
34 - Applekidjosh
35 - Mac Arrowny
36 - Z1mZum
37 - Link Jr
38 - Aprosenf
39 - Chinballz
40 - somdude04
41 - Buzzup
42 - Silverflame
43 - cavedog0
44 - Shake
45 - Lettuce Kefka
46 - Rufus Shinra 18
47 - Gooper Blooper
48 - Ringworm
49 - stepintothearena
50 - Zylo the wolf
51 - Fantusta
52 - XxSoulxX
53 - Heroic Gamma Ray
54 - jonthomson
55 - Master Moltar
56 - XIII is cool
57 - Tediz247
58 - charmander6000
59 - plasmabeam
60 - Phediuk
61 - alpha door
62 - ExThaNemesis
63 - Tai
64 - Shdwdde
65 - VicPez
66 - Sir Bormun
67 - Tjian
68 - Brainstruck
69 - ChichiriMuyo
70 - ShinDragon (sidharta)
71 - Brett with Atreyu
72 - Smurf87
73 - DeeJayDragon
74 - Weird Kirby Dude11
75 - DomaDragoon
76 - dragoontheguy
77 - Radix
78 - rpgapzx
79 - PugTheNinja
80 - Kaxon
81 - FastFalcon05
82 - ubarn
83 - King Morgoth
84 - Mithrandir1331
85 - cyko
86 - Fett0001
87 - SecondBest
88 - Shivan Reincarnated
89 - outback
90 - A worlds envy
91 - Crono801
---
Trivia XV: Dragostea Din Tei
Yoblazer'd
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 6/19/2005 9:26:14 PM | Message Detail
Incidentally, I'm about 3 hours into Suikoden II and Luca Blight has already made Kefka look like a saint in comparison.

I'm not a fan of either personally. I don't really care for those who are known for just mass slaughtering.

---
Nominate Vincent Valentine for the Summer Contest 2005.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/contest_nominate.php
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 6/19/2005 9:53:44 PM | Message Detail
I haven't been here very long so I have to ask. How is there Link/Mega Man SFF?
---
Spring Contest 2005 - 68/80 points
"Not even death can save you from me" - Diablo
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 6/19/2005 9:59:04 PM | Message Detail
So I've been doing some analysis of past contest data. My eventual goal will be to create a (somewhat large) set of constraints on character popularity and find the least-squares solution to those constraints. There will be 224 variables (each of the characters' popularities at the times of each of the contests), and the constraints will consist of 220 match results and equations constraining the year-to-year variation of the characters that appeared in multiple contests. I am going to weight these constraints differently, since if the year-to-year constraints have too little weight, it will look like characters fluctuate too wildly, and if they have too much weight, it will force them to have the same popularity across years, also something we don't want.

Using this analysis, I hope to find a set of adjusted extrapolated standings for each contest where the adjustments are not approximate guesses based on SFF, but rather on a least-squares regression of all of the data.

As of now, I have done the analysis without year-to-year variation. That is, I have assigned one popularity value to each of the 134 characters that have appeared in a contest and found the popularity values that minimized the sum of the squares of the errors of the extrapolated result and the actual result over all 220 matches. The data will be in my next post(s).
---
For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 6/19/2005 9:59:31 PM | Message Detail
Supposedly, Link/Mega Man SFF (or the 20XX adjustment) was made because MM did noticably worse than expected and it's assumed that Link fans and MM fans have a big over-lap that favors Link moreso than other over-laps. However, giving MM his complete 2k3 value was controversial enough...and it's now more controversial than ever if he deserves ANY adjustment, now that we've realized that Link 2k4 is stronger than Link 2k3 and Liquid has absolutely bombed in the villains contest.
---
Serious Reminder: Nominate Arbiter for 2k5
Serious Reminder: Nominate Tifa Lockheart for 2k5, too
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 6/19/2005 10:01:00 PM | Message Detail
Link 0.527825
CloudStrife 0.483445
Sephiroth 0.452435
Mario 0.422712
Crono 0.421007
SamusAran 0.408642
MegaMan 0.394376
SonicTheHedgehog 0.378803
SolidSnake 0.369154
AerisGainsborough 0.36438
Zero 0.332288
ShadowTheHedgehog 0.328688
Ryu 0.323115
Frog 0.301249
Bowser 0.300335
Tidus 0.295556
Auron 0.293794
MasterChief 0.291555
Ganondorf 0.290687
Magus 0.281457
Dante 0.278446
SquallLeonhart 0.278415
Zelda 0.277056
Felix 0.267701
MorriganAensland 0.266761
LiquidSnake 0.260803
KnucklesTheEchidna 0.258843
Sora 0.258271
Yoshi 0.25692
Kasumi 0.254047
ClaireRedfield 0.252063
Vivi 0.25093
Alucard 0.250006
Ken 0.240629
FoxMcCloud 0.240196
Luigi 0.230621
KOSMOS 0.22653
JillValentine 0.225481
Kirby 0.224937
StriderHiryu 0.220888
TommyVercetti 0.220238
Yuna 0.220044
Lavos 0.219691
Scorpion 0.214725
MilesTailsPrower 0.209433
Wario 0.20939
Servbot 0.2037
RyuHayabusa 0.201235
DonkeyKong 0.200226
AyaBrea 0.19677
Diablo 0.191323
Raziel 0.187148
Isaac 0.184502
MotherBrain 0.182414
Vergil 0.181812
RevolverOcelot 0.181135
SimonBelmont 0.18028
ViewtifulJoe 0.179306
Kefka 0.176805
RamzaBeoulve 0.17565
DukeNukem 0.174538
MBison 0.174094
LaraCroft 0.173977
LittleMac 0.172226
Bomberman 0.167571
Protoman 0.164028
TinaArmstrong 0.160345
DrWily 0.155825
Conker 0.155789
Nemesis 0.155019
HK47 0.154664
PacMan 0.154314
Ness 0.153153
SamFisher 0.15081
CrashBandicoot 0.15079
Ridley 0.148065
SpyroTheDragon 0.144494
Pikachu 0.142272
QBert 0.141851
Vyse 0.140711
Ramirez 0.138596
MaxPayne 0.138037
Kain 0.13694
Bub 0.133227
Kite 0.130802
Jak 0.128552
JCDenton 0.126115
Ansem 0.126079
ParappaTheRapper 0.122037
TerryBogard 0.120157
GordonFreeman 0.119351
EarthwormJim 0.117852
SlyCooper 0.11532
PitfallHarry 0.114938
RyoHazuki 0.113823
IoriYagami 0.111668
DrRobotnik 0.111017
CATS 0.110716
Ghaleon 0.109177
Mithos 0.107867
Raiden 0.107823
Sigma 0.107607
TomNook 0.107345
sin 0.105892
GabeLogan 0.103798
KazuyaMishima 0.100432
Laharl 0.0975919
KyoKusanagi 0.0973947
AiAi 0.095679
Andross 0.0948986
Ultros 0.0939456
Ulala 0.093589
Wesker 0.090587
Ratchet 0.0901545
Albedo 0.0886034
CaptainOlimar 0.0874879
ChopChopMasterOnion 0.0841333
OfficerTenpenny 0.08357
MasterHand 0.0783574
AkiraYuki 0.0777263
PyramidHead 0.0762032
MrResetti 0.0747375
Abe 0.0730575
Kuja 0.0681514
Giygas 0.0675285
LucaBlight 0.0674729
Goemon 0.0656258
GuybrushThreepwood 0.0547115
SeriousSam 0.0547109
Kane 0.0534102
MsPacMan 0.0515075
DirkTheDaring 0.0477084
MrDriller 0.0390778
Tanner 0.034191
---
For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: swirldude | Posted: 6/19/2005 10:01:30 PM | Message Detail
And Tanner still loses!
---
I don't want to say this, but yoblazer's making me for him pwning me in the Guru Contest! *grumble*
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 6/19/2005 10:04:18 PM | Message Detail
A couple things to note - first of all, this is only preliminary data and sort of represents an average over the years for any given character, and it's not an accurate representation of their performance from any given year, unless they were only in one contest. Second of all, as you've probably noticed, neither Link nor Cloud is at 0.5, and that's because the data isn't normalized towards any particular character. My program assigned each character an arbitrary popularity, used the extrapolated standings formula on each match, and tried to minimize the sum of the squares of the errors.
---
For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: therealmnm | Posted: 6/19/2005 10:06:02 PM | Message Detail
I don't agree with the drop between Aeris and Zero. If anything, Zero should be stronger. I know it's due to Mega Man's performance in 2k4 though...
---
Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 6/19/2005 10:08:17 PM | Message Detail
Frog 0.301249
Bowser 0.300335
Tidus 0.295556
Auron 0.293794
MasterChief 0.291555
Ganondorf 0.290687
Magus 0.281457
Dante 0.278446
SquallLeonhart 0.278415
Zelda 0.277056
Felix 0.267701
MorriganAensland 0.266761
LiquidSnake 0.260803


Heh.
---
Serious Reminder: Nominate Arbiter for 2k5
Serious Reminder: Nominate Tifa Lockheart for 2k5, too
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 6/19/2005 10:25:48 PM | Message Detail
Apro said: a bunch of stuff I don't understand because I've been drinking...

WOOO! Aeris 10th over-all!!! Hellz yeah!
---
Yoblazer just kicked my ass!
From: NewLib | Posted: 6/19/2005 10:27:37 PM | Message Detail
I also like Tidus being ranked higher than Gannondorf despite Ganon winning that match and him seemingly getting stronger and Tidus getting weaker.
---
NOMINATE Terra, Manny Calavera, and Leon S. Kennedy FOR SC2k5!
From: Fiop | Posted: 6/19/2005 10:29:47 PM | Message Detail
Kefka is above Bison. o_O
---
Congratulations to yoblazer for winning the guru contest.
number 30 on the Sp2k5 leaderboard (pjd4 is my universal name)
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 6/19/2005 10:35:06 PM | Message Detail
As he said... "and it's not an accurate representation of their performance from any given year"
---
Yoblazer just kicked my ass!
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 6/19/2005 10:36:19 PM | Message Detail
Tidus 0.295556
Auron 0.293794
MasterChief 0.291555
Ganondorf 0.290687
Magus 0.281457


*stabs repeatedly*
---
SpC2k5 FINAL SCORE: 72/80
*is Janus5000*
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 6/19/2005 10:41:54 PM | Message Detail
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 6/19/2005 11:26:14 PM | Message Detail | #099

I'm not a fan of either personally. I don't really care for those who are known for just mass slaughtering.


I take it then you have no knowledge of the background story of Luca's childhood?

And Leon beat me to it, but for the love of everything holy Bobby 'Big Game' Horry needs to father my children.

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
YoBlazer(33) & Robotnik pwned my (Ro)butt in Sp2k5
From: SlangEdter41 | Posted: 6/19/2005 11:31:07 PM | Message Detail
Guys, sorry if this smurf guy was causing trouble with my ID... shouldn't be a problem now.
From: LuniNutz99 | Posted: 6/20/2005 12:56:50 AM | Message Detail
1 - UltimaterializerX
2 - Ngamer64
3 - yoblazer33
4 - Team Rocket Elite
5 - Mister Mario
6 - HaRRicH
7 - NewLib
8 - Heroic Mario
9 - RPGGamer0
10- Tirofog
11 - Haste2
12 - Fiop
13 - Starion
14 - Lopen
15 - greatone10
16 - MegatokyoEd
17 - SonicRaptor
18 - Lucid Faia
19 - Draco1214
20 - Gr8CyberMonkey
21 - Heroic Viktor (tnote)
22 - Undeniable
23 - CaptainFlufflez
24 - Dranze
25 - Vile Requiem
26 - Forceful Dragon
27 - Lieutenant Kettch
28 - swirldude
29 - andaca
30 - Ed_Bellis
31 - RPGuy96
32 - Janus5000
33 - Dilated Chemist
34 - Applekidjosh
35 - Mac Arrowny
36 - Z1mZum
37 - Link Jr
38 - Aprosenf
39 - Chinballz
40 - somdude04
41 - Buzzup
42 - Silverflame
43 - cavedog0
44 - Shake
45 - Lettuce Kefka
46 - Rufus Shinra 18
47 - Gooper Blooper
48 - Ringworm
49 - stepintothearena
50 - Zylo the wolf
51 - Fantusta
52 - XxSoulxX
53 - Heroic Gamma Ray
54 - jonthomson
55 - Master Moltar
56 - XIII is cool
57 - Tediz247
58 - charmander6000
59 - plasmabeam
60 - Phediuk
61 - alpha door
62 - ExThaNemesis
63 - Tai
64 - Shdwdde
65 - VicPez
66 - Sir Bormun
67 - Tjian
68 - Brainstruck
69 - ChichiriMuyo
70 - ShinDragon (sidharta)
71 - Brett with Atreyu
72 - Smurf87
73 - DeeJayDragon
74 - Weird Kirby Dude11
75 - DomaDragoon
76 - dragoontheguy
77 - Radix
78 - rpgapzx
79 - PugTheNinja
80 - Kaxon
81 - FastFalcon05
82 - ubarn
83 - King Morgoth
84 - Mithrandir1331
85 - cyko
86 - Fett0001
87 - SecondBest
88 - Shivan Reincarnated
89 - outback
90 - A worlds envy
91 - Crono801
92 - LuniNutz99

---
Lunatic Under Narcotic Influence
I got pwned by Yoblazer in the Guru Contest
From: Kaxon | Posted: 6/20/2005 1:24:14 AM | Message Detail
Using this analysis, I hope to find a set of adjusted extrapolated standings for each contest where the adjustments are not approximate guesses based on SFF, but rather on a least-squares regression of all of the data.

It's a great idea and I'll be interested to see the results. But one problem I see with it is that the formula doesn't know about SFF, so unless you tell it to ignore certain matches, those will just be averaged into the characters' strengths.

Mario 0.422712
Crono 0.421007


I don't understand how any algorithm could come up with this result, unless you reduced Crono's percentage in 2k2 based on the "3000 cheat votes" thing.
---
SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Congrats to yoblazer, the Guru contest winner!
From: Kaxon | Posted: 6/20/2005 1:28:08 AM | Message Detail
By the way, does anyone know of any good Mega Man artwork (preferably official) or screenshots? I'm looking for something that just has MM, like a profile picture.
---
SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Congrats to yoblazer, the Guru contest winner!
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 6/20/2005 4:17:10 AM | Message Detail
Magus being that low sort of gives me the idea that you're ignoring SFF.

From: SlangEdter41 | Posted: 6/20/2005 2:31:07 AM | Message Detail
Guys, sorry if this smurf guy was causing trouble with my ID... shouldn't be a problem now.


Slang knows how to type, Smurf does not. I'm willing to bet that all of the "OMG Smurf what are you doing in my account?" posts lately are just Smurf looking for more attention, especially given that Slang hasn't posted anywhere else and hasn't been on Bnet in awhile.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 6/20/2005 5:47:06 AM | Message Detail
Now that the hits are rolling in on those images I submitted, it seems that the mission everyone needs the most help on in the first two campaigns is Terran 10.

Stupid enemy Ghosts and their perfect micro skills. I'd love to see a program tht counts the APM of the computer.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Sephirot1 Returns | Posted: 6/20/2005 5:50:27 AM | Message Detail
1 - UltimaterializerX
2 - Ngamer64
3 - yoblazer33
4 - Team Rocket Elite
5 - Mister Mario
6 - HaRRicH
7 - NewLib
8 - Heroic Mario
9 - RPGGamer0
10- Tirofog
11 - Haste2
12 - Fiop
13 - Starion
14 - Lopen
15 - greatone10
16 - MegatokyoEd
17 - SonicRaptor
18 - Lucid Faia
19 - Draco1214
20 - Gr8CyberMonkey
21 - Heroic Viktor (tnote)
22 - Undeniable
23 - CaptainFlufflez
24 - Dranze
25 - Vile Requiem
26 - Forceful Dragon
27 - Lieutenant Kettch
28 - swirldude
29 - andaca
30 - Ed_Bellis
31 - RPGuy96
32 - Janus5000
33 - Dilated Chemist
34 - Applekidjosh
35 - Mac Arrowny
36 - Z1mZum
37 - Link Jr
38 - Aprosenf
39 - Chinballz
40 - somdude04
41 - Buzzup
42 - Silverflame
43 - cavedog0
44 - Shake
45 - Lettuce Kefka
46 - Rufus Shinra 18
47 - Gooper Blooper
48 - Ringworm
49 - stepintothearena
50 - Zylo the wolf
51 - Fantusta
52 - XxSoulxX
53 - Heroic Gamma Ray
54 - jonthomson
55 - Master Moltar
56 - XIII is cool
57 - Tediz247
58 - charmander6000
59 - plasmabeam
60 - Phediuk
61 - alpha door
62 - ExThaNemesis
63 - Tai
64 - Shdwdde
65 - VicPez
66 - Sir Bormun
67 - Tjian
68 - Brainstruck
69 - ChichiriMuyo
70 - ShinDragon (sidharta)
71 - Brett with Atreyu
72 - Smurf87
73 - DeeJayDragon
74 - Weird Kirby Dude11
75 - DomaDragoon
76 - dragoontheguy
77 - Radix
78 - rpgapzx
79 - PugTheNinja
80 - Kaxon
81 - FastFalcon05
82 - ubarn
83 - King Morgoth
84 - Mithrandir1331
85 - cyko
86 - Fett0001
87 - SecondBest
88 - Shivan Reincarnated
89 - outback
90 - A worlds envy
91 - Crono801
92 - LuniNutz99
93 - Sephirot1
---
All hail the great yoblazer who destroyed my bracket and all of those in the Guru Contest!
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