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Summer 2005 Contest
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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 226
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/30/2005 4:49:27 PM | Message Detail
Would anybody take Kirby over Vincent right now?
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Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: shadow8021 | Posted: 8/30/2005 4:51:19 PM | Message Detail
Nah. He may get closer than Dante, but I don't think he'd win.
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Summer Contest Score: 47/52
Today's Pick: Vincent
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/30/2005 4:53:04 PM | Message Detail
And some food for thought:

Dante is the first non-noble nine member to break 45% on an FFVII character.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/52 points
Current Match Prediction: Dante vs. Vincent Valentine
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/30/2005 4:56:36 PM | Message Detail
And a question:

How long will Knuckles' morning lead last (if he gets one at all)?
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/52 points
Current Match Prediction: Dante vs. Vincent Valentine
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/30/2005 4:58:25 PM | Message Detail
And a question:

How long will Knuckles' morning lead last (if he gets one at all)?


As much as I want it I don't think Knuckles will lead, but he will make some kind of a comeback.
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: shadow8021 | Posted: 8/30/2005 4:59:37 PM | Message Detail
If he was favored by the board, it would prolly be gone in a few minutes, but he'll hold tight until the day gives him the lead back and allows him to pull away, then the night vote will bring Squall back but he'll fall short.
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Summer Contest Score: 47/52
Today's Pick: Vincent
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/30/2005 5:00:05 PM | Message Detail
Well, Knuckles could conceivably split the board vote with Squall (moreso than with Magus) and then dominate Squall throughout the day. Then Squall could make a comeback at night.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/52 points
Current Match Prediction: Dante vs. Vincent Valentine
From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 8/30/2005 5:02:29 PM | Message Detail
I see Kunx taking the board vote for a little while and then Squall taking the lead and not looking back, much.
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/
From: I_Dont_Love_You | Posted: 8/30/2005 5:03:12 PM | Message Detail
Knuckles > Squall
Board: Summer 2005 Contest | Topic: 23230432 - Knuckles > Squall | Moderation ID: 2532165
From: I_Dont_Love_You | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:39:02 PM
Moderated at: 8/30/2005 6:47:39 PM | Reason: Trolling | Action: Topic Deleted
In 2002, lol

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=955
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=979


LOL
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George Romero > You.
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/30/2005 5:03:13 PM | Message Detail
Meh, Knuckles won't lead throughout the day. He can take the board vote for a bit, but after that it's over.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/30/2005 5:03:17 PM | Message Detail
And how does my Crono > Samus upset look now after his match vs. Vercetti?

Ok, that's the last of my questions. >_>
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/52 points
Current Match Prediction: Dante vs. Vincent Valentine
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/30/2005 5:12:22 PM | Message Detail
Those polls go along with what I've said for awhile: in 2k2, Knuckles would get 56%. Inaccurate nowadays, but still sweet.


I expect Knuckles to lead for afew seconds (a minute or two, tops), then Squall takes over from there. I actually wouldn't put it past Knuckles to win an update when it comes to his best time in the day, but Knuckles is still ultimately goin' to lose.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/30/2005 5:13:32 PM | Message Detail
And how does my Crono > Samus upset look now after his match vs. Vercetti?

Pretty meh-ish. Samus got 70.05% against Frog, and Crono got 70.85% against Vercetti. I don't think a Frog/Vercetti match is that close, particularly after Vercetti/Kefka.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/30/2005 5:24:32 PM | Message Detail
Incidentally, Dante picked up his best hourly percentage from 16:00 to 17:00 - 47.41%. He got 47.18% in the next 15 minute update, too.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/30/2005 5:51:48 PM | Message Detail
These vote gains by Vincent really do look awkward.

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Explicit Content.
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From: andaca | Posted: 8/30/2005 5:53:10 PM | Message Detail
Knuckles lead will last for 24 hours.

BOOK IT'D
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thesqueal.com
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/30/2005 5:56:36 PM | Message Detail
Knuckles lead will last for 24 hours.

Knuckles couldn't even take a lead against Kefka so if he does end up winning he'll have to make a comeback.
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:01:08 PM | Message Detail
Knuckles does have heavy board support this time around, so I wouldn't be surprised in the least if Knuckles took the lead and never gave it up.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/52 points
Current Match Prediction: Dante vs. Vincent Valentine
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:02:53 PM | Message Detail
"Couldn't even" take a lead against Kefka? That's stupid--Kefka is Kefka. He ALWAYS has the initial vote.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Crono801 | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:03:46 PM | Message Detail
Pretty meh-ish. Samus got 70.05% against Frog, and Crono got 70.85% against Vercetti. I don't think a Frog/Vercetti match is that close, particularly after Vercetti/Kefka.

Even with MC/DK?
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From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:07:46 PM | Message Detail
I think it's more likely that MC and DK are ~26%, while TV and Kefka are ~23%, rather than all four being ~25-26%. I could be wrong, but I still don't think Frog/Vercetti would be that close.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:12:16 PM | Message Detail
I see Kunx taking the board vote for a little while and then Squall taking the lead and not looking back, much.

No. Knux is absolutely AWFUL with the board vote and the first night vote. And Kirby is considered to be one of the best with the board vote, and Squall was up 55/45 from the beginning. Knuckles will never lead, nor will he ever come close.

It's ridiculous how people who are saying Knuckles will beat Squall say so because the stats have always been wrong. But where are they getting their idea that Knux can beat him? Their preconceived notions of Magus's strength, A.K.A. the stats.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:13:18 PM | Message Detail
No. Knux is absolutely AWFUL with the board vote and the first night vote.

Yet he was able to split it with the most popular character on this board...
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/52 points
Current Match Prediction: Dante vs. Vincent Valentine
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:14:52 PM | Message Detail
Yet he was able to split it with the most popular character on this board...

Because it does not matter if you're not strong enough to distance yourself. Magus was crushed by Link from the start because he wasn't strong enough to get an advantage, regardless of how strong he is with the board vote. Not to mention, the board vote was when Magus had his highest percentage. After that, Knux was gaining percentage the rest of the time.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:15:36 PM | Message Detail
*Gives Leonhart the evil eye*
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:18:14 PM | Message Detail
Not to mention, the board vote was when Magus had his highest percentage. After that, Knux was gaining percentage the rest of the time.

And who's to say Knuckles won't do the same thing to Squall? Because he's stronger statistically? Please. Sora was able to split the board vote with ALUCARD. There isn't that much of a gap between Knuckles and Squall, especially if you extraploate him through Bomberman.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/52 points
Current Match Prediction: Dante vs. Vincent Valentine
From: shadow8021 | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:19:45 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, but is 2004 this year? Is the voting pool EXACTLY the same as 2004? I think not. You act as if the EXACT SAME people come to vote at this site every day. There are new people each year, each with their own preferences and opinions. The stats from 2004 are VERY innaccurate from SFF, and the fact that there are more voters this year. Anything can happen in this match, no winner is predetermined. And as for Squall getting 55% on Kirby from the get-go, you're talking about the same Squall who only got 53% of the vote against GENO in the first round. GENO!!!. Squall has probably gotten weaker from the past year, and that only opens things up for Knuckles. Just learn to accept that this is a new year with new strengths for characters and new voters with new opinions. NOTHING is the same.
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Knuckles the Echidna's Road to SC2K5 Glory!
Round 2: vs. (2) Squall Leonhart
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:20:08 PM | Message Detail
And who's to say Knuckles won't do the same thing to Squall? Because he's stronger statistically? Please. Sora was able to split the board vote with ALUCARD.

All the more reason to believe that Squall will lead from wire to wire, because he's stronger statistically. Sora hasn't ever been that strong with the night vote while Alucard dominates it, but because Sora was stronger, he held even and pulled away.

There isn't that much of a gap between Knuckles and Squall, especially if you extraploate him through Bomberman.

*sees what Kirby did to Tidus*

Yeah, that really seems to be where Squall's at.

Oh wait, it was that all Nintendo boost that suddenly shot Kirby up 5%, wasn't it? How foolish of me to forget.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:20:56 PM | Message Detail
And as for Squall getting 55% on Kirby from the get-go, you're talking about the same Squall who only got 53% of the vote against GENO in the first round. GENO!!!

Huh?
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:21:17 PM | Message Detail
And as for Squall getting 55% on Kirby from the get-go, you're talking about the same Squall who only got 53% of the vote against GENO in the first round. GENO!!!.

75% =/= 53%

And yes, the voter pool changes, but it will not be so drastic as to lower Squall's strength way down.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:21:43 PM | Message Detail
Sora hasn't ever been that strong with the night vote while Alucard dominates it, but because Sora was stronger, he held even and pulled away.

WTF? The stats had Alucard above Sora.

*sees what Kirby did to Tidus*

Yeah, that really seems to be where Squall's at.

Oh wait, it was that all Nintendo boost that suddenly shot Kirby up 5%, wasn't it? How foolish of me to forget.


Yes, because we all know that Kirby and Squall are tied in the hip.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/52 points
Current Match Prediction: Dante vs. Vincent Valentine
From: shadow8021 | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:21:46 PM | Message Detail
I'm talking about the first update.
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Knuckles the Echidna's Road to SC2K5 Glory!
Round 2: vs. (2) Squall Leonhart
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:22:49 PM | Message Detail
Yes, because we all know that Kirby and Squall are tied in the hip.

Right, because Kirby doing exactly as he should based on the unadjusted stats does not validate Squall's strength at all. No, sir. Not at all.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:24:35 PM | Message Detail
Right, because Kirby doing exactly as he should based on the unadjusted stats does not validate Squall's strength at all. No, sir. Not at all.

No it doesn't. They aren't joined at the hip. Kirby could've gained and Squall could've dropped for all we know.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 44/52 points
Current Match Prediction: Dante vs. Vincent Valentine
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:24:38 PM | Message Detail
And as for Squall getting 55% on Kirby from the get-go, you're talking about the same Squall who only got 53% of the vote against GENO in the first round. GENO!!!

Huh?


He means that Squall vs. Geno was 53/47 at the very beginning of the poll...

I wouldnt' be surprised to see Knux and Squall split the board vote, then Squall pulls ahead, then Knux makes a bit of a comback during the day, the Squall leaves him in the dust with the night vote with a win.
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From: Dranze | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:24:42 PM | Message Detail
WTF? The stats had Alucard above Sora.

His 2k4 value is actually in question.
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:25:29 PM | Message Detail
the Squall leaves him in the dust with the night vote with a win.

That, I seriously doubt.
From: meche313 | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:26:00 PM | Message Detail
I think you're putting too much faith on your fanboyism. Sure, I think Squall should win, but you talk about it as if was an easy match for him to win like Squall/TV or the likes of it. Knuckles can easily do nice against Squall, who, afterall, I'm still not buying him being a force.
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That's right. Cloud N. Candy would get a NEGATIVE percentage, and RPGuy's extrapolated calculator would crash. - therealmnm
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:26:37 PM | Message Detail
Magus's percentages against Knuckles, by the hour:
00:00 | 55.82%
23:00 | 53.65%
22:00 | 52.87%
21:00 | 51.25%
20:00 | 50.41%
19:00 | 49.53%
18:00 | 50.79%
17:00 | 51.19%
16:00 | 50.89%
15:00 | 48.81%
14:00 | 46.74%
13:00 | 46.79%
12:00 | 46.79%
11:00 | 47.36%
10:00 | 46.61%
09:00 | 47.96%
08:00 | 47.33%
07:00 | 48.60%
06:00 | 48.03%
05:00 | 49.19%
04:00 | 47.50%
03:00 | 50.42%
02:00 | 53.83%
01:00 | 52.03%
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:27:10 PM | Message Detail
No it doesn't. They aren't joined at the hip. Kirby could've gained and Squall could've dropped for all we know.

Give me a break. THIS is grasping for straws. It is ridiculous how easily people will cast off something like this because they don't want to accept the fact that Squall has this match easily.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:27:24 PM | Message Detail
I'd make a comment about Leonhart having to defend Squall from all comers, despite the fact that he SHOULD be the heavy favorite...but I've got a feeling I'm going to have to do the same thing with Snake come his match with Bowser. ;_;
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:28:02 PM | Message Detail
Btw, congrats to whoever has Squall winning this division.

Vincent will need a ridiculous amount of FF VII > all FF Factor to get past Squall, so it's not happening.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:28:40 PM | Message Detail
I'm just saying, Knuckles can take the lead for a few seconds and minutes, but for the whole day? No, Squall would have to be around Knuckles level for that.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:29:14 PM | Message Detail
I think you're putting too much faith on your fanboyism.

No...I would be saying this even if I didn't like Squall. I think it's stupid how quickly people are casting off concrete evidence to justify Knuckles winning tomorrow.

"Hmm...Kirby owned Tidus, who was about even with Knuckles last year. Squall beat Kirby last year with 55%. Well...I'll just pretend that Kirby took a large jump and act like this has nothing to do with Squall."
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:29:21 PM | Message Detail
Squall's percentage against Geno, by the hour:
00:00 | 72.89%
23:00 | 72.69%
22:00 | 75.08%
21:00 | 73.89%
20:00 | 73.69%
19:00 | 75.51%
18:00 | 73.68%
17:00 | 74.26%
16:00 | 74.90%
15:00 | 75.71%
14:00 | 74.71%
13:00 | 74.41%
12:00 | 74.66%
11:00 | 74.67%
10:00 | 73.69%
09:00 | 74.39%
08:00 | 74.56%
07:00 | 77.40%
06:00 | 75.92%
05:00 | 78.18%
04:00 | 80.35%
03:00 | 78.55%
02:00 | 75.25%
01:00 | 70.13%

They're pretty similar. Squall does better with the morning vote, and that's about it.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: shadow8021 | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:30:24 PM | Message Detail
Plus, because of being overshadowed by Snake year after year, Knuckles could easily be stronger than we all think. I see no reason in why he absolutely can not be able to defeat Squall.
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Knuckles the Echidna's Road to SC2K5 Glory!
Round 2: vs. (2) Squall Leonhart
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:30:26 PM | Message Detail
Indeed. I strongly dislike Squall, but I'm confused as to why people think this can even be close.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:31:29 PM | Message Detail
Just because he faced Snake last year doesn't mean he's under-rated enough to beat Squall of all people. He ranks in about the same spot every year regardless of Snake's strength.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:31:30 PM | Message Detail
I'm actually in wait and see mode for this match. Squall is the favorite, but it's not like he's leaps and bounds ahead of Knuckles. And I will be rooting hard for Knux no matter how he does against Squall.

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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/30/2005 6:31:53 PM | Message Detail
because of being overshadowed by Snake year after year, Knuckles could easily be stronger than we all think

Grasping for straws. Snake has put up three very different performances, and yet Knuckles has ranked in the same area every year.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
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