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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 290

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Kijitow | Posted 6/11/2006 9:31:42 AM | message detail
That's what I had pretty much assumed. I was just hoping for the huge stretch of the other franchises in Smash winning the SFF battle, but yeah...

*Looks at Samus vs. Mario last summer contest*
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Tinister | Posted 6/11/2006 11:04:04 AM | message detail
I really think there's gonna be a major upset with Metal Gear.

I don't know, I really don't think Metal Gear is going to be as popular as people are predicting it (Final Four).
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TheSonyCorp | Posted 6/11/2006 11:05:50 AM | message detail
I really think there's gonna be a major upset with Metal Gear.

I would say it's gonna be close, but Snake annihilating Sora cannot be overlooked.
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TRE Public Account | Posted 6/11/2006 11:07:24 AM | message detail
It depends if voters think of Metal Gear Solid as part of the Metal Gear series. If they don't, I doubt Metal Gear will win its third match.
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Tiedus | Posted 6/11/2006 11:09:06 AM | message detail
Why wouldn't they? That's like people not thinking Super Mario 64 or Super Mario World is apart of Super Mario Bros.

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yoblazer33 | Posted 6/11/2006 11:15:42 AM | message detail
I've been considering Kingdom Hearts over Metal Gear as a possible late round upset (at this point, it's the only late round upset even on the radar), but it seems too unlikely.
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Tinister | Posted 6/11/2006 11:21:17 AM | message detail
I dunno. My gut feeling is that Snake is more popular than his games, and Kingdom Hearts is more popular than Sora.

I wouldn't be surprised either way.
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dethfdddddh | Posted 6/11/2006 11:27:16 AM | message detail
If Mario Kart were to beat Megaman, would we have the biggest round 1 upset in terms of bracket percentage?
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 6/11/2006 11:30:20 AM | message detail
*reads all of hiko's posts*

Yeah, see, this is why we all get weary whenever someone new makes a stats topic. Well over half of those posts are unnecessary.


Unnecessary? I was pretty sure most of my posts were pretty related to the brackets....sure there was the big inflation of poll related posts, but I was just asking cause Bellis, Leonhart, and tran started posting a couple of em. Anyhow...here's a question. What do you guys think is potentially the greatest upset of this contest?
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dethfdddddh | Posted 6/11/2006 11:32:44 AM | message detail
Elder Scrolls beating out SF and RE.

POSSIBLE.....>_>....
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/11/2006 11:34:36 AM | message detail
The the most outlandish-yet-possible upset? Warcraft. Not just over GTA -- if it happened to beat GTA, I'm calling it right now that it wins the whole bracket, 'cuz there would have to be MASSIVE rallying. I'm talking enough to make it seem like Google was giving it linkage.
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ApplesauceSign | Posted 6/11/2006 11:34:49 AM | message detail
I've read the first 3 of 6 pages so far of this topic, and I can't go on right now, but I see ES/SF being just like Pacman/Ocelot last year. Almost everyone picks SF(Ocelot) but nearly no one calls for an absolute blow out, and as the actual match date grows closer and closer, everyone begins to grow more and more uneasy. ES then nabs the victory and everyone goes "lol wtf o well we all knew it was possible we just went with the safe pick."

That's my take on it anyway!

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dethfdddddh | Posted 6/11/2006 11:35:03 AM | message detail
WoW's userbase/YTMND rallying around Warcraft to give it the win over Mario would be incredible.
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ApplesauceSign | Posted 6/11/2006 11:35:40 AM | message detail
I forgot to mention that after it's victory people start saying "ES > RE!" and they get put in their place when RE coasts to victory.

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HaRRicH | Posted 6/11/2006 11:36:44 AM | message detail
Incredible, yes, but I would be furious.
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 6/11/2006 11:38:07 AM | message detail
No one saw Pacman going over Ocelot though EC, cause Pacmans popularity was kinda decreasing by then. Course its the exact friggin opposite in ES/SF...but how can we trust an Xbox/PC(Daggerfall and the other aside) game series to beat one that has had noteriety since the days of NES?
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Master Moltar | Posted 6/11/2006 11:42:20 AM | message detail
No one saw Pacman going over Ocelot though EC, cause Pacmans popularity was kinda decreasing by then.

Actually, EC's right about that. At least, that's how I felt.

I remember leading up to the match, people started doubting Ocelot more and more. Few actually called a Pac-Man win, but most were saying it would be really close.
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Ayvuir | Posted 6/11/2006 11:53:41 AM | message detail
The oldies always come through
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ApplesauceSign | Posted 6/11/2006 11:54:08 AM | message detail
Yeah, if you were in the stats topic you would know what I'm talking about (not a cheap-shot, cause I realize it sounds brash for whatever reason), I don't know how the rest of the board was acting, but in the stats topic what I said was most definitely happening.

Anyway, the only game that has a chance of upsetting Metal Gear is Halo, I'm not saying, Halo > KH is a guarantee either, but if you don't think there's some kind of quirky SFF or whatever you want to call it between MG/KH, you're delusional. I personally have Halo > KH, and MG > Halo, but regardless, Halo is the only thing with a realistic shot at MG.

Since the bracket has been released and I filled it out in 5 minutes of it's creation, the only things I've switched to are ES > SF, and SSB > Sonic. If ES > SF comes back to bite me in the ass, I won't care because I feel pretty strongly about it (still expect a close match), but if Sonic trumps SSB I'm gonna be pissed.

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HaRRicH | Posted 6/11/2006 12:04:14 PM | message detail
The only match I've changed since I filled mine out was Mega Man/Mario Kart. I'm still not sure what I'm going to do with that one...

...TES should do good for itself, but I don't expect a lot from it. Anything after 40% is doing good, and I'll be surprised to see it break 45%.
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 6/11/2006 12:32:13 PM | message detail
Only thing I've changed is my SH/FE pick. I now have FE takin that one.
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Janus5000 | Posted 6/11/2006 12:35:34 PM | message detail
Anyway, the only game that has a chance of upsetting Metal Gear is Halo

Too bad neither of them will get that far, eh?
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raytan7585 | Posted 6/11/2006 12:36:04 PM | message detail
Hmm....

Castlevania over Halo by 50.14%
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/11/2006 12:36:25 PM | message detail
KH > SC for the division championship, yeah!!!
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transience | Posted 6/11/2006 12:38:01 PM | message detail
The the most outlandish-yet-possible upset? Warcraft. Not just over GTA -- if it happened to beat GTA, I'm calling it right now that it wins the whole bracket, 'cuz there would have to be MASSIVE rallying. I'm talking enough to make it seem like Google was giving it linkage.

I actually said to Josh last night, "after FF/Zelda/Mario, Warcraft has the best chance of winning the whole thing." no one else has a chance in hell, so an unreal rally is about the only chance. also, if it beats GTA, I expect the rallying to get even bigger for subsequent rounds.

and yeah, EC is right. a lot of people in the stats topic, myself included, just had a bad feeling about Pac-Man. most of us thought Ocelot would win with about 51%, so it wasn't nearly as big of a surprise in here as it was all over the board.

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ApplesauceSign | Posted 6/11/2006 12:39:46 PM | message detail
Too bad neither of them will get that far, eh?

I disagree on both accounts! Especially the Metal Gear one. Please don't tell me you have it losing to Soul Calibur. Actually, please do, because then the only other logical way MG would not get there is by losing to FH or SH, still that's one crappy pick! >_>

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ApplesauceSign | Posted 6/11/2006 12:40:25 PM | message detail
I'm always right baby!

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Janus5000 | Posted 6/11/2006 12:42:17 PM | message detail
Oh please, I wouldn't be that crazy.

...Well...

...No, I wouldn't. KH/SC rematch ahoy!
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LordOfDabu | Posted 6/11/2006 12:44:34 PM | message detail
I sent a copy of the bracket to a bunch of my random friends, a majority of which have no interest in GameFAQs. I was quite surprised by the first response, as even without seeing any other contest results he seemed to nail almost all of the matches with what one would expect from someone who has been here awhile. This would seem to suggest that the bracket is indeed easy to predict (or that everyone's way off).

He attached the following slightly humorous comment:

"The Final Fantasy fans are too rabid to allow anything else to win. I know people who would resort to bombings and assassinations before they'd let anything be accepted as a better video game series. People almost crucified me when I suggested that Advent Children was a boring movie that relied on special effects to carry it."

He's not entering the contest and doesn't have a GameFAQs account, so there's no harm in posting his bracket to get a look at what a typical casual may think:

http://img108.imageshack.us/my.php?image=dansbracket0ed.jpg

Interesting that he has Sonic > Smash and Mega Man > Mario Kart.
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ApplesauceSign | Posted 6/11/2006 12:51:06 PM | message detail
I differ in 4 matches from him.

Pokemon/SO
GTA/Warcraft
Sonic/SSB
SF/ES

Out of those the only one I can't see going against my bracket is GTA/Warcraft.

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HaRRicH | Posted 6/11/2006 12:52:30 PM | message detail
I've got an interesting idea for you Dabu, since you've already started on it...

...do you think you could do something like the BOP for casuals? I mean, not 100+ like Slow manages to get, but to see the collective results of a handful of casuals would rule.
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Yesmar | Posted 6/11/2006 12:58:53 PM | message detail
Just out of curiosity after looking at all those old polls.

Is this the only non-contest poll to ever break 100k?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1368

From 2003, obviously.
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Big Bob | Posted 6/11/2006 1:00:15 PM | message detail
The matches giving me the most trouble are GTA/Warcraft, Mega Man/Mario Kart, and Halo/KH, as well as the big Zelda/FF. I could have FE/SH on there, but I'm too much of a fanboy to bother thinking too hard about it. :P

The thing about CV/Halo: CV's strength in that match will be partly of Halo's anti-votes. If it actually manages to beat Halo, it will falter against KH the next round. Halo could beat Kingdom Hearts, but since it's around the same strength anyway, the anti-votes won't matter. Anything that's anti-voted pulls its opponent up with it.

GTA/Warcraft is a tough one, since I just don't want to underestimate Blizzard again (both Starcraft and Diablo ruined my brackets. At least it's just one point this time).

Just some pointless rambling.
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consolefreak | Posted 6/11/2006 1:01:15 PM | message detail
I don't really understand how people give Halo a decent chance against KH (though heavily favouring KH), but then somehow take MGS' victory for granted.

MGS would certainly seem a lot stronger than KH directly, as shown in the following poll: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2116

Noting of course that this poll was taken before the releases of Kingdom Hearts 2 and Metal Gear Acid 2. Though I'm sure nobody would contest the fact that in case of a rematch, Snake would, again, be a solid victor.


However, I think most here would agree something happened in that match. SFF, pic factor, whatever. Largely irrelevant here, because as we all know, games =/= characters. So let's just disregard that match entirely, though I'd like to throw out, for those people reluctant to not using that match as an argument, that Snake as a character is a lot more loveable than Sora. The same thing cannot be said for MGS and KH. This is a very opinionated statement, but I'm sure people can see some value in it.


Considering that poll, it's very understandable that IF KH beats Halo, MGS beats KH. The big question here is: what happens if Halo beats KH?

For this, we would need to know how KH compares to MGS, indirectly. Snake - Sora is utterly irrelevant for this case, as not only does it relate to the characters, we are also faced with the oddity surrounding that match, and the fact that it is a direct encounter.

So let's take a look at the spring contest. Kingdom Hearts is actually stronger than MGS 1 and 2. In fact, using the data from the contest, it is projected to beat them with 58.65% and 53.14% respectively. Of course, this is a games contest, not a series contest. How would MGS 1 and 2 combined fair against KH? A different score, likely, but would it really differ a lot?

I don't think so. I think a lot of series' fanbases largely overlap and their strength is mostly decided by their strongest member. Considering the popularity in the SSBM > Sonic pick, I think most people can agree on this.

Of course, since that contest, KH2, MGS3, MGA and MGA2 have been released. In whose favour will this play? Who will say. I'm thinking KH2, with stronger sales and a more recent release.

In the end, I think KH and MGS are very close in strength, with MGS being indirectly stronger, but not by much.

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consolefreak | Posted 6/11/2006 1:01:17 PM | message detail
So how about that Halo - KH match. The spring contest gives us a good view on how Halo relates to KH -- they faced a similar opponent, even if that opponent was Starcraft. Judging from those matches, Halo is projected to beat KH with 53.41%, anti-votes and all. (It is projected to beat MGS and MGS 2 with 61.47% and 56.34% respectively).

For the series contest, we have to take into account the releases of KH2, as well as CoM and Halo 2. Sure, KH2 is more recent than Halo 2 and is Square, but let's not forget: Halo 2 still outsold Kingdom Hearts 2 5 to 1. And yes, this site heavily favours Nintendo and Square, but it's worth noting that KH outsold KH2, while Halo 2 outsold Halo. Can CoM really make up this difference? Or any significant difference for that matter?

Sure, we should give KH 2 time to outsell its predecessor, but the contest is next month. How is KH2 going to bring in a bunch of new voters for the series, but Halo 2 isn't? Because it's more recent? People have suddenly forgotten about Halo 2? Halo's fanbases overlap, but KH's don't? How can that even be, when Halo 2 outsold Halo by more units than KH 2 has sold in the first place (NA)?


This tells me that the Halo series should beat the KH series by more than Halo would beat KH. And this, in turn, tells me that Halo not only stands a good chance against MGS, it may actually be the favourite. It is in my book (and my bracket).

Regardless of your opinions, you shouldn't go over Halo so easily. I think this series can make or break a lot of brackets, more so than matches like Silent Hill/Fire Emblem, Mega Man/Mario Kart or Steet Fighter/Resident Evil (assuming that it will be those facing off), due to the amount of points banking on it. There are other matches like Warcraft > GTA that could cost one a lot of points, but does anyone really believe something like that's gonna happen?

I just think a lot of you are really underestimating Halo based on Master Chief and the Xbox hate. Thinking Castlevania stands a chance against it, for example, is just asinine IMO; look at the numbers.

I'm not at all certain Halo will be beating MGS, or even KH for that matter, but I do find myself baffled at the lack of discussion regarding these matches (a lot of discussion is actually going on about Halo - Castlevania).

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"Now I realise.. I wasn't pursuing Sephiroth.
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voltch | Posted 6/11/2006 1:06:32 PM | message detail
i wonder if we'll get a perfect score this time.
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consolefreak | Posted 6/11/2006 1:10:12 PM | message detail
...do you think you could do something like the BOP for casuals?

Hmm, what's the BOP? Is that the thing were you post your bracket and the winner gets the nomination thing? Has that started yet? And if so, where do we post our brackets?
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therealmnm | Posted 6/11/2006 1:11:57 PM | message detail
I've read the first 3 of 6 pages so far of this topic, and I can't go on right now, but I see ES/SF being just like Pacman/Ocelot last year. Almost everyone picks SF(Ocelot) but nearly no one calls for an absolute blow out, and as the actual match date grows closer and closer, everyone begins to grow more and more uneasy. ES then nabs the victory and everyone goes "lol wtf o well we all knew it was possible we just went with the safe pick.

I think you got it all wrong. Street Fighter is much closer to Pac-Man than Elder Scrolls is. Ocelot is the niche fan-favorite who only fans of the series will vote for as Pac-Man represented the general well-known and mostly liked character that drew in the default votes. It's the same thing for Elder Scrolls. Sure, it has a dedicated following enough to make it do decent in a poll like the one with KH2 (20%), but the fanbase isn't that large to win against something as universal as Street Fighter.
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Slowflake | Posted 6/11/2006 1:12:50 PM | message detail
The BOP for casuals? Hoo boy. It'd be fun, but undoable.

The whole point of the BOP is to get a relatively accurate read on each contender's chances. You could only do that with those who know their contest stuff.
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marioinblack | Posted 6/11/2006 1:15:02 PM | message detail
Pokemon/Star Ocean and Zelda/Final Fantasy are messing me up. I've got Star Ocean down due to what a less popular Xenogears did to G/S/C at the games contest. Pokemon does have the popularity factor backing it though.

Zelda/Final Fantasy gets me for one reason, the way people will vote. If it will be based of which series they think is better as a whole or whether they have one game from the series that they adore and can't vote against it. Like lets say a Final Fantasy fan's favorite game LttP or OoT, but they like more FF games than Zelda games, what will they vote for. I've got Zelda right now, but my decision would worry me no matter what I picked.

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dethfdddddh | Posted 6/11/2006 1:16:36 PM | message detail
I keep on seeing Halo/Vania as Xbox versus everything else due to how universal the Castlevania franchise is. It's not a comforting image to have.
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therealmnm | Posted 6/11/2006 1:18:27 PM | message detail
Yeah, but Halo does have a pretty big following on this site. Master Chief did beat Donkey Kong. Halo has enough fans on here to beat something universally known. Elder Scrolls doesn't!
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Draco1214 | Posted 6/11/2006 1:20:08 PM | message detail
Fire Emblem/Silent Hill is giving me the most trouble now. I've got FE as of now, but that match is tough to call.
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LegendarySnake | Posted 6/11/2006 1:22:53 PM | message detail
I think it's funny that people still take Metal Gear Solid's Spring Contest number seriously, even after it placed 8th in the top 100 list and we've seen other signs of FFVII overperforming on it. And I said it even back in 2004 (heck, before I had even played a Metal Gear game): If you think Metal Gear Solid 2 is stronger than the original, you're crazy. It just isn't. By the way (and here's an opportunity to call ME crazy), I think there's a chance that Metal Gear could overperform on Halo as well as Kingdom Hearts. Just a hunch with no solid backing.

Also, for you people who are expecting SMB to SFF SSB (three letter S acronyms ahoy!), do any of you happen to be the people who think SSBM can beat Mario 3? I'm just curious.

The bracket Dabu's friend filled out is rather interesting. I'm actually surprised that he has Warcraft beating GTA because GTA is one that always trips up casuals and people who don't pay attention to these contests. I'm not surprised about him taking Sonic over SSB. People who don't go here won't really be aware of just how popular Smash Brothers is here.
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marioinblack | Posted 6/11/2006 1:26:00 PM | message detail
I think SMB has an advantage on SSB in the first place. The SFF will just draw more people to SMB IMO. (you're right about those 3 letter acronyms)

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Slowflake | Posted 6/11/2006 1:26:04 PM | message detail
Also, for you people who are expecting SMB to SFF SSB (three letter S acronyms ahoy!), do any of you happen to be the people who think SSBM can beat Mario 3? I'm just curious.

Hell ****ing no. Heck, that's why I think SMB will SFF SSB to oblivion in the first place.
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therealmnm | Posted 6/11/2006 1:29:28 PM | message detail
consolefreak, I skimmed over your post and disagree with a few things. Here's one that stood out though.

Sure, we should give KH 2 time to outsell its predecessor, but the contest is next month. How is KH2 going to bring in a bunch of new voters for the series, but Halo 2 isn't? Because it's more recent? People have suddenly forgotten about Halo 2? Halo's fanbases overlap, but KH's don't? How can that even be, when Halo 2 outsold Halo by more units than KH 2 has sold in the first place (NA)?

You're forgetting that this is GameFAQs. You can't possibly argue that Halo 2 brings more people to the site nearly two years after its release than Kingdom Hearts 2 does 3 months after its release. Kingdom Hearts 2 is an Action RPG. It's FAQ heavy. People discuss the storyline. People discuss the sidequests. People discuss the boss fights. RPGs in general bring more traffic to this site in general than other genres.

Then you have to consider that Kingdom Hearts 2 as a game makes the series a whole lot more likeable than Kingdom Hearts did by itself. Kingdom Hearts really wasn't that popular in 2k4. Sure it brought a lot of fans to the site, and had the FF characters in it. But as a game, it really wasn't held on the same level as a FF game. A lot of people really didn't like it because of the X mashing. KH2 did a whole lot to raise the series' popularity level. Sure you can say Halo 2 did as well, but not on the level as KH2. I've said before that the presence of Organization XIII and a much more awesome Sora, along with a better storyline gives people more reasons to become attached to the Kingdom Hearts series. It definitely will not be the same KH you saw in 2k4.
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consolefreak | Posted 6/11/2006 1:30:44 PM | message detail
I think it's funny that people still take Metal Gear Solid's Spring Contest number seriously, even after it placed 8th in the top 100 list and we've seen other signs of FFVII overperforming on it. And I said it even back in 2004 (heck, before I had even played a Metal Gear game): If you think Metal Gear Solid 2 is stronger than the original, you're crazy. It just isn't.

I was thinking about mentioning that, but then I just decided not to. I wouldn't attach any importance to the top 100 list. I mean, it's very possible for MGS to have been SFF'd by FFVII, but still, MGS2 sold a lot more than MGS and it could be more popular on the site as a whole.

Besides, in regards to Halo, which draws heavily on the casual votes, it got #9 in the contest, right behind MGS, even though the top 100 tournament format favours MGS a lot compared to the normal format. This is somewhat compensated by the fact that MGS1, 2 and 3 were on the drop-down list as opposed to just Halo (not Halo 2), but still.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/11/2006 1:31:20 PM | message detail
MGS2 sold a lot more than MGS

Try again.
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therealmnm | Posted 6/11/2006 1:35:43 PM | message detail
I think there's a chance that Metal Gear could overperform on Halo as well as Kingdom Hearts. Just a hunch with no solid backing.

Nah. The Metal Gear and Halo fanbases are pretty solid on this site. There really isn't much overlap there, even though their game type is somewhat similar. I think that stigma comes from some similarities between Snake and Master Chief as characters, and how Snake ends up being more likable in the end. But as games, the fanbases are pretty stout.
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