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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 446

wavedash101 | Posted 8/8/2007 4:07:01 PM | message detail
Would we see MM crumble if he was revealed for Brawl...just wondering what the thoughts on that are...

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trannyscience | Posted 8/8/2007 4:09:02 PM | message detail
MM pretty much *can't* crumble unless he faces a Square character. he's kind of immune to those lesser Ninendo guys. Auron, Squall and maybe Tifa are his only real threats. and chances are, he'll end up facing off against Bowser or something, and nothing will come close to happening.

I have faith in MM beating Auron, but I also believe that Auron would put up at least 58% on Sora. take someone relatively equal to Sora (Yoshi?), and I think Auron still wins that with 55%.
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xexyz
trannyscience | Posted 8/8/2007 4:09:33 PM | message detail
oh, and Vincent too.
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xexyz
wavedash101 | Posted 8/8/2007 4:10:53 PM | message detail
What about Dorf, Zelda and Vin?...surely they are threats as well?

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trannyscience | Posted 8/8/2007 4:13:17 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1352

not happening.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2121

Bowser's not overcoming something like this, and given Ganondorf's match with Link, I HIGHLY doubt he's gonna come close.

it's just the Squareheads that will threaten Mega Man.
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xexyz
wavedash101 | Posted 8/8/2007 4:15:27 PM | message detail
So a TP boost doesnt help Dorf at all...nor MM's increasing irrelevance to gaming?

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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/8/2007 4:16:09 PM | message detail
I just can't imagine a Mega Man/Vincent match to not heavily favor Vincent after what I saw Sora do to him. Sora just isn't that likable, and Vincent is a clear rung and then some up on the Square pecking order.

How would you see a Mega/Vincent match go in 2k6? I can think of very few things that favor MM outside of "intangibles" (he's an icon - and the Noble Nine haven't fallen yet!). I have no problem disputing this point objectively - like I said initially, I'm well aware I'm in the minority here.

(it's the Sora = Auron thing that gets my head shaking)
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
wavedash101 | Posted 8/8/2007 4:18:43 PM | message detail
Vincent isnt that likable either...Sora gets to be the main in a hugely popular game series and that helps...like pretty much any of the NN >_>


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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
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MnMZero | Posted 8/8/2007 4:20:22 PM | message detail
Eh, Mega Man/Vincent would probably go 51/49 or something. Vincent might be in position to beat him based on what you take out of the stats, but it doesn't mean that it will actually happen.
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Proud Supporter of Zero
trannyscience | Posted 8/8/2007 4:20:45 PM | message detail
So a TP boost doesnt help Dorf at all...nor MM's increasing irrelevance to gaming?

in a word, no. Mega Man is gonna be blasting that ass for a long time. a villain that is fairly characterless is not going to beat the Blue Bomber.. not yet. Ganondorf couldn't even pull some SFF on Samus, and he's from a far larger series. if anything, Samus was the one that benefitted.

if you want a good guy for Ganondorf, Crono's the guy.
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xexyz
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/8/2007 4:21:33 PM | message detail
That may be your opinion, but Vincent obviously got his #3 order on the FFVII tree from his aloof, reserved, "badass" personality and his absolutely badass character design. All despite his optional status - think how strong he'd be if he had come along when, say, Tifa did. Sora is lacking quite a bit in both regards.
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/8/2007 4:23:54 PM | message detail
Eh, Mega Man/Vincent would probably go 51/49 or something. Vincent might be in position to beat him based on what you take out of the stats, but it doesn't mean that it will actually happen.

This is a common argument and something that I respect - but it's also almost like an implicit admission that if such is the case, that Vincent is actually stronger than Mega Man indirectly - just that he can't pull it off when the time comes due to whatever reasons.
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
wavedash101 | Posted 8/8/2007 4:26:31 PM | message detail
I dont think Sora gets in the contest based on people not liking him though

I'm sure Vincent's generic badassery helps put him high up on the pecking order, just like a bunch of other characters in the contest, as people love a sort of cliche character, they are cool...I'm indifferent to Sora, but clearly someone does like the guy =|
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
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MnMZero | Posted 8/8/2007 4:26:56 PM | message detail
No it's not. I'm simply saying that I wouldn't take Vincent to take down Mega Man regardless of what you can pull from stats.
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Proud Supporter of Zero
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/8/2007 4:31:52 PM | message detail
I dont think Sora gets in the contest based on people not liking him though

It's not that he's not likable - but he certainly is a love-hate character, particularly considering KH1. He continually swings a high seed thanks to the hardcore fans out there, and the KH faithful are going to be there to throw him more than a fair share of votes.

The fanbases are somewhat different - but ultimately, it's Square, and Aeris/Sora proved that beyond a shadow of a doubt. And where the fanbase ends is where Vincent's advantage begins - the greatest, of course, is FFVII itself. And Dirge of Cerberus didn't hurt any...
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
wavedash101 | Posted 8/8/2007 4:33:09 PM | message detail
Does Crisis Core come out this year...or was it pushed back again?

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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/8/2007 4:36:41 PM | message detail
I forgot CC even existed until you mentioned it, which should give you an idea as to how much it'll matter for anyone.

At any rate, it'll be out in Japan during the contest I think... for what that's worth.
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
wavedash101 | Posted 8/8/2007 4:38:35 PM | message detail
Thats worth...nothing =(

Lots of FF stuff coming this year, especially for DS...but since none of it pretains to any of the popular characters, there wont be an affect I'd assume

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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
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ZFS | Posted 8/8/2007 7:05:45 PM | message detail
if you want a good guy for Ganondorf, Crono's the guy.

I agree with pretty much what you've been saying.

I think the ideal matches would be Mega Man vs. Vincent or Crono vs. Ganondorf. I wouldn't even include Tifa or Zelda into that, either. Those are about the only two scenarios where I could see something crazy happening. And I think the likelihood of seeing those two matches play out would be pretty low.

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"We need to remember -- to spread the word -- to fight for change." - Snake
therealmnm | Posted 8/8/2007 8:18:27 PM | message detail
So uhhhh, thoughts on Master Chief's short term and long term contest strength in the midst of this apparent heavy advertising campaign?
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swirIdude | Posted 8/8/2007 8:22:19 PM | message detail
Not much improvement. I don't think there is much more the Halo series can do to make Master Chief stronger in these contests.
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ZFS | Posted 8/8/2007 8:22:30 PM | message detail
No idea. Microsoft's going above and beyond with the ad campaign, though. Pretty crazy.

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"We need to remember -- to spread the word -- to fight for change." - Snake
Haste_2 | Posted 8/8/2007 8:25:01 PM | message detail
Anyway, another question. Did we ever figure out WHAT THE h3ck WAS GOING ON with Sonic/Luigi last year? Sonic didn't boost, and Luigi rose, so... Was it some weird SFF thing? A fluke? Did Smurf rally his furry friends?

Well... Luigi/Sonic was predicted almost the same as the year before... Sonic won by .5% or so more than he was supposed to, and I don't think Luigi rose (plus, Bowser did not show such a sign, for what it's worth). True, he beats Zero and Kirby by more than expected, but Mega Man seemed weaker and Kirby disappointed against PoP, suggesting they both might've weakened... basically, I see a pretty good argument either way for Luigi/Sonic's legitimacy.

I wanna see Sora/Aeris II. or Sora/Tidus.

I've made up my mind on Sora vs. Aeris... here is my bold statement: Aeris no longer gets any SFF advantage at all against Sora.

I never said MM isn't overrated, I said I don't think he's nearly overrated to the extent everyone else believes he is.

It takes only a slight dip for MM to lose to Vincent. You basically HAVE to say Mega Man stayed constant in order for him to have been above Vincent's strength.

Ooh, I never expected anyone to say Auron would probably beat Mega Man. I like that...

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/8/2007 8:25:42 PM | message detail
Advertising won't make him stronger.

The fact that he's getting a new game on another system will, though. If he lasts that long.
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therealmnm | Posted 8/8/2007 8:54:56 PM | message detail
Advertising won't make him stronger.

This isn't just regular advertising... this is a media blitz.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/8/2007 9:03:01 PM | message detail
I just can't imagine a Mega Man/Vincent match to not heavily favor Vincent after what I saw Sora do to him. Sora just isn't that likable, and Vincent is a clear rung and then some up on the Square pecking order.

What exactly did Sora "do" to him? Perform better than expected only a few months after a very successful sequel where his role became much more serious and less mind-numbingly annoying than his first appearance?

Sora/Mega Man wasn't the only match that Sora showed that he was completely boosted from the Sora we were used to. Look at his 64% on Gordon Freeman, who a year prior managed to break 42% on Leon Kennedy.

I remember after 2k5 everyone was wondering what the hell was going on with Gordon looking so comparitively strong.

Actually, could someone run the numbers there, seeing as we have 2 common characters in Gordon and Mega Man.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Haste_2 | Posted 8/8/2007 9:07:18 PM | message detail
Basing Mega Man off 2K5 Gordon: x-stat value is... 34.54% on BL. I don't trust the linearity of Sora or Gordon that much, though.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/8/2007 9:10:57 PM | message detail
There are perfectly logical explanations for Luigi that help make the entire rest of that division fit.

We've already seen the effects of Mega Man/Mario overlap, both in Zero/Mario and Mega Man/Yoshi. And obviously Luigi managed to SFF Kirby enough so that it looked like he boosted. When in fact, he and Sonic stayed relatively the same as they were in 2k5.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ZFS | Posted 8/8/2007 9:15:58 PM | message detail
Yeah. What Microsoft is doing with Master Chief and Halo is a wee bit different from your standard advertising. It's not every day you see a videogame being in commercials by Pontiac, nor on your fries and cup at Burger King, or in the grocery store prominently on a bottle of Mountain Dew. And tt's not so much the fact that Master Chief on your Burger King fries feels you with an urge to go vote for him in a poll, but it just raises the awareness that Halo is coming and sucks millions of people into its hype machine. And there is no hype like Halo hype; that **** is palpable.

Still have no idea what it would do for him in a contest, though, but he'll be using the hype at its peak levels along with the post-game release. He'd need to pull one of those divisions like tran made a while back to really make use of it, I'd imagine. He might be in a position where it's one and done.

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"We need to remember -- to spread the word -- to fight for change." - Snake
trannyscience | Posted 8/8/2007 9:36:12 PM | message detail
I posted this elsewhere, but I'll do it again.

I don't think Halo uberhype is going to change much. his fans already vote him over everything, and his anti-fans already vote everything over him. it's not like Halo is an unknown quantity here. the only way I'd buy a huge change is if he went through a radical change - think WW Link to TP Link. it might help him a smidge, but not more than that. this isn't Raiden getting a complete makeover. this isn't Snake in a Nintendo game. this is the same Master Chief in the same Halo game.
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xexyz
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 8/8/2007 9:42:58 PM | message detail
I don't know about you, but every time I go to Burger King from now on, all I'll be thinking is "Damn, this cup is snazzy. I think I want to go to GameFAQs and vote for Master Chief."
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ZFS | Posted 8/8/2007 9:45:30 PM | message detail
Definitely a good point.

One thing I might mention, though, is that there's a lot of middle ground there with Chief. He's got the extremes covered -- those who will vote him over everyone and those who will vote him over no one -- but I think those who are generally in the middle with Chief might lean toward voting for him than not. The hype of Halo and the game actually releasing should at least help him more than it would if the contest were taking place a year after the game had come out and he had settled back into being just regular ol' Chief.

Guess we'll find out, though. He probably won't be in a position to really use any of the hype.

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"We need to remember -- to spread the word -- to fight for change." - Snake
Lopen | Posted 8/8/2007 9:45:55 PM | message detail
Nah, there are a bunch of undecided in Chief matches. I refuse to believe everyone who votes him votes him all the time and vice versa.

And man, just wait till the kiddies wake up, head to Burger King, and have their Master Chief coke. They come back and vote. WHAT NOW, Crono?
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Lopen is bye bye. Now is ninja time.
ZFS | Posted 8/8/2007 9:47:20 PM | message detail
I'm so getting one of those cups just for the "BELIEVE." Everything is better with a nice hearty amount of believe.

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"We need to remember -- to spread the word -- to fight for change." - Snake
trannyscience | Posted 8/8/2007 9:47:59 PM | message detail
I agree that there's some middle ground there. it's just not as big - not even close - as other characters.
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xexyz
swirIdude | Posted 8/8/2007 9:48:42 PM | message detail
GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!
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Pokemon FC: 0129 8285 9148
Dude, the Romans didn't slap two pieces of stone together, minus adhesive, and call it a day. ~WVI
ZFS | Posted 8/8/2007 9:50:19 PM | message detail
Yeah. It's not a huge middle ground, and it probably won't make a world of difference, but it'd help in those close matches -- what's up Sub-Zero!

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"We need to remember -- to spread the word -- to fight for change." - Snake
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 8/8/2007 9:50:24 PM | message detail
I think the fact that Microsoft has become more "acceptable" in the mainstream is going to be a bigger factor than the media blitz. I know I used to be a rather large detractor back in the Xbox days - which isn't true at all this gen.
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swirIdude | Posted 8/8/2007 9:55:25 PM | message detail
Pfft, you CLEARLY understimate the thoughts of a voter loaded with Master Chief Mountain Dew.
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Pokemon FC: 0129 8285 9148
Dude, the Romans didn't slap two pieces of stone together, minus adhesive, and call it a day. ~WVI
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/8/2007 9:58:04 PM | message detail
Thoughts?

"Solid Snake Soda would taste so much better."

*anti-votes Chief in spite*
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
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ZFS | Posted 8/8/2007 10:05:55 PM | message detail
Manliest drink on the planet right there. Someone needs to get on that, maybe even call it "S3"!

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"We need to remember -- to spread the word -- to fight for change." - Snake
FastFalcon05 | Posted 8/8/2007 10:07:04 PM | message detail
I think the fact that Microsoft has become more "acceptable" in the mainstream is going to be a bigger factor than the media blitz. I know I used to be a rather large detractor back in the Xbox days - which isn't true at all this gen.

Exactly. Xbox hate going down + Halo 3 + Mc's no slouch = He doesn't need your sympathy.

I mean, this "Mc's probably going to lose his first match stuff" is silly. He lost to an untested Sub Zero the same week a new Mortal Kombat game came out. Sure, it isn't a high profile release, but it's still pretty opportune for Sub Zero, wouldn't you say? I'm not worried about MC escaping round one, and I think he's got enough in his corner to merit it.
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One of the most troublesome things in life is that what you do or do not want has little to do with what does or does not happen. ~ Lemony Snicket
transience | Posted 8/8/2007 10:18:36 PM | message detail
I can't tell you how many times I saw this argument in 2005.. to the point that MC was expected to walk all over Donkey Kong.

MC will escape round 1 if he gets a weak enough opponent.. simple as that. pretty obvious thinking right there, but that's what it comes down to. if he gets a "normal" 7 or 8 seed then yeah, he'll make it through no problem. I don't think 360 acceptance is going to turn people into Master Chief fans, though, not when there isn't even a game out on your system.

I'll be interested to see him make round 2 though. I want to see the power of Halo mid-contest.
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xyzzy
8-bit plastic love machine
therealmnm | Posted 8/8/2007 10:20:11 PM | message detail
Master Chief didn't lose to Sub-Zero because of Mortal Kombat Armageddon. Come on now. Sub-Zero was the more popular character. And I'm not saying that Master Chief will immediately benefit from this. But still, this is a serious hype machine. The only other video game characters that are plastered in the main stream media like this are the Marios and the Sonics (back in the day).
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
Lopen | Posted 8/8/2007 10:38:28 PM | message detail
Armageddon was released the very same day as the match, wasn't it? I don't feel biased in saying that Sub-Zero could've gained a % or two from that.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/8/2007 10:40:12 PM | message detail
Two days earlier, I think.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/8/2007 10:43:56 PM | message detail
The problem here is that I don't think empty hype will do much for a GameFAQs voter, who is infinitely more privy and involved in gaming as a whole than an average Joe walking into 7-11. For Master Chief to really increase in popularity, his games not only have to be good and sell well (these are practically a given), but attract new audiences. The infamous Halo DS, for example, would have done more for Chief than Halo 2 and 3 combined.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
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Lopen | Posted 8/8/2007 10:54:16 PM | message detail
Dude, I'm tellin ya. The newer audience that isn't already a fan of MC might be swayed by this. Now originally they might've been voting Crono because he looks like a DBZ character or Mega Man or Sonic because they're blue, but now? They're gonna vote for the guy who they just drank a beverage out of.

I'm seriously not joking!
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
JustForFun1988 | Posted 8/8/2007 11:02:26 PM | message detail
Is there anyone here who is bold enough to admit that he will take Tifa as the champion of this year contest. I know self delusional Vlado will do it but i am just curious as if anyone is having the same opinion as Vlado.
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/8/2007 11:16:49 PM | message detail
In a serious bracket, not even Vlado would do that, although some fans might... Just For Fun.

*audience goes nuts*
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
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