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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 572

transience | Posted 9/22/2008 10:05:22 PM | message detail
sorry i understood the post before this but what??? geno's done and buried.

watch the updates - oh hey Geno only lost one by 15 votes and Phoenix came crashing down from this point on last year

*waits* ...nevermind
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Malakuko | Posted 9/22/2008 10:06:31 PM | message detail
this division is unexciting
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hochimnih157 | Posted 9/22/2008 10:08:03 PM | message detail
Expect Geno to begin a "dumb comeback" which is a term I so aptly named. Phoenix has this but it will be closer. Bowser, unlike, Fraudus, has an okay day vote so it will be harder for Geno to make up ground on Phoenix than it was for Bomberman last year. Don't get antsy, this will not be an exciting match.




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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=55
_Hogger_ | Posted 9/22/2008 10:09:10 PM | message detail
Why is Bowser doing so bad?
chaosarcher07 | Posted 9/22/2008 10:09:37 PM | message detail
trends here are really similar to Phoenix/Bomberman - right down to the slowdown at the end of the first hour followed up with the big update.

Phoenix however has 200 votes more on Geno compared to Bomberman at the moment.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/22/2008 10:09:46 PM | message detail
I need Geno and Bowser to climb 2% and the others to drop 2% for my Oracle prediction to be great. I can see it happening.

Here's what I need to happen for my Oracle prediction to be good:

Bowser: Shoot up like crazy in percentage. This should hopefully occur over the next few days and also during the ASV.
Deckard: He is fine right now, as long he stays in the 13% area.
Geno: Needs to drop by about 2 to 3%. Should hopefully occur with Bowser leaching votes from Geno.
Phoenix: Needs to drop by about 3% over the course of this match.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Xuxon | Posted 9/22/2008 10:09:54 PM | message detail
geno himself fell in percentage almost as much as phoenix from an hour in to the end. geno was against better day vote competition i guess, but still... phoenix is 8 points ahead. he only fell 5 last time, and is already splitting the amount he's overperforming his end result by with geno.
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hochimnih157 | Posted 9/22/2008 10:10:38 PM | message detail
Why is Bowser doing so bad? The same reason all Nintendo characters are doing bad - A Brawl de-boost. The evidence at this point is undeniable. I mean look at Link. He did not get the 66.67% he needed.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=55
Lopen | Posted 9/22/2008 10:10:48 PM | message detail
Eh, I don't know why people were expecting Bowser to get in the range of 50%... this is a weak four pack but Phoenix is at least a low midcarder and Geno's SFFing (because I refuse to use "LFF") him a bit probably.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
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Justin_Crossing | Posted 9/22/2008 10:11:00 PM | message detail
Here's what I need to happen for my Oracle prediction to be good:

Bowser: Shoot up like crazy in percentage. This should hopefully occur over the next few days and also during the ASV.


Did you mean days, or hours?
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Justin's CB Points: 16 | Points After this Round: 20
Today: Bowser > Phoenix | Tomorrow: Mario > Knuckles
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/22/2008 10:11:22 PM | message detail
This should hopefully occur over the next few days and also during the ASV.

Oops, I meant to say "few hours".
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
transience | Posted 9/22/2008 10:12:01 PM | message detail
nothing is for certain when Phoenix is involved. I don't like judging him and what he's going to do until like 2am. a 1000 vote lead is nothing for a guy that bleeds like Phoenix.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/22/2008 10:12:39 PM | message detail
Why is Bowser doing so bad?

I'll put the blame on Phoenix receiving a lot of board support right now. This should die down in a few hours and Bowser will hopefully look much better by the end of this match.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Xuxon | Posted 9/22/2008 10:14:21 PM | message detail
thing is, it's like expecting jill valentine to catch up with frog when being 1000 votes behind. geno's day vote isn't much better than phoenix's, and phoenix has the "win in ties" advantage.
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Iubaris | Posted 9/22/2008 10:17:33 PM | message detail
Xuxon (#414)
and phoenix has the "win in ties" advantage.

I'd say TIM has that advantage.
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It's iubaris, not Lubaris.
Bracket: 14 points || Oracle: 53rd || Guru: 25th
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/22/2008 10:19:12 PM | message detail
Deckard Cain to have a Diablo level day vote, let's do this.

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character battle vii ; final fantasy
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/22/2008 10:20:53 PM | message detail
Deckard Cain to have a Diablo level day vote, let's do this.

I doubt it. Bowser's day vote will probably be good enough that it will mask out any noticable signs of Deckard's day vote.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Lopen | Posted 9/22/2008 10:25:14 PM | message detail
Deckard is still finishing above Geno. Book it.

Geno frontloaded + Blizzard night + Diablo not sucking in the day = gg Geno.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
transience | Posted 9/22/2008 10:26:19 PM | message detail
comparing Diablo to Deckard Cain is your first mistake
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Xuxon | Posted 9/22/2008 10:26:38 PM | message detail
diablo day vote is due to recognizability/universality... which cain won't have
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Brawl FC: 0344-9611-6716
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/22/2008 10:28:11 PM | message detail
Deckard is still finishing above Geno. Book it.

Geno frontloaded + Blizzard night + Diablo not sucking in the day = gg Geno.


Geno is already ahead by a little over 700 votes. Deckard also has not won a single update over Geno yet.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Xuxon | Posted 9/22/2008 10:28:11 PM | message detail
even so he might have a better day vote than these guys though
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/22/2008 10:28:18 PM | message detail
Yeah I gave up about an hour ago, I'm just unhappy with things is all. ****ing lawyers.

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character battle vii ; final fantasy
Lopen | Posted 9/22/2008 10:29:40 PM | message detail
I think people are overestimating the "Diablo is the freaking devil" factor. He's far and away the best entrant that game is going to have, but his strength is still primarily tied to the game I'd like to think.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/22/2008 10:30:16 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/22/2008 10:31:45 PM | message detail
wait a minute scratch that he didn't win the day vote with ganondorf lol

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Arsenal FC 4-0-1 Pts: 12 Pos: Top of the league, where we belong.
character battle vii ; final fantasy
transcience | Posted 9/22/2008 10:31:51 PM | message detail
I don't think Cain will be awful in the day or anything, but I get the feeling he's a night guy. that just seems logical.

WHY AM I ARGUING DECKARD CAIN'S DAY/NIGHT TRENDS time to play mega man 9
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/22/2008 10:33:09 PM | message detail
2 contests in a row Phoenix had to go cheat his way past one of my characters. The only way I'll be satisfied is if Proto Man gets into the contest next year and beats the crap out of Phoenix Wrong.
transcience | Posted 9/22/2008 10:36:13 PM | message detail
looks like Cain is a night guy, he's really rocking it right now. I guess he could be a day guy too since both of his opponents are early guys, but who knows.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Janus5000 | Posted 9/22/2008 10:37:35 PM | message detail
*checks bracket*

Huh, turns out I have Liquid > Luigi next round. I'm liking that pick so far.
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ZFS | Posted 9/22/2008 10:37:57 PM | message detail
hey black turtle are you gonna drop two bucks on that protoman dlc

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let's mosey
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/22/2008 10:42:54 PM | message detail
Cain wins his first update against Geno.

A little too late though. v.v

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character battle vii ; final fantasy
Lopen | Posted 9/22/2008 10:43:18 PM | message detail
DECKARD GAIN! DECKARD GAIN!

(haha I'm awesome get it get it)
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/22/2008 10:44:21 PM | message detail
Cain is almost a full 1% higher than my Oracle prediction. It should hopefully drop during the day and bring it closer to my prediction.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Lopen | Posted 9/22/2008 10:45:34 PM | message detail
Sorry o Lustre

We'll be seeing no Deckard Wane over the day. All forward here baby.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Justin_Crossing | Posted 9/22/2008 10:46:36 PM | message detail

Lopen (#435)
Sorry o Lustre

We'll be seeing no Deckard Wane over the day. All forward here baby.


I agree with this. Geno will bounce up a bit and Bowser too. Deckard should end at 11% (My prediction ;D) and Phoenix might just drop ever so slightly.
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Justin's CB Points: 16 | Points After this Round: 20
Today: Bowser > Phoenix | Tomorrow: Mario > Knuckles
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/22/2008 10:46:39 PM | message detail
Let's do this, Deckard.

And maybe Phoenix could commit one of the biggest choke jobs in contest history, and Cain could have a good day vote and we could see the comeback. That would be awesome.

Won't happen(come on reverse psychology)

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character battle vii ; final fantasy
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/22/2008 10:48:26 PM | message detail
I think Cain will be similar to Guybrush for voting patterns over the course of the day. Guybrush reached an all time high of 15.43% in the morning and starting falling hard in the day to finish the match at 13.78%.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Lopen | Posted 9/22/2008 10:48:28 PM | message detail
Don't agree with me and then call for a loss of percent! Get outta here!

All aboard the Deckard Train, make Geno n Phoenix a mere Deckard Stain
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Gaddswell | Posted 9/22/2008 10:49:32 PM | message detail
Finally caught up.

Looks like Bowser's gonna hang right at 40% until the day hits. Well, he should go up when Phoenix recedes. Not too far out from expectations this time it seems!
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/22/2008 10:52:17 PM | message detail
Man imagine a Phoenix vs like, Roxas match. Compare Phoenix's day vote to the KH day vote and I wonder how many votes Roxas could turn around in that match.

Augh I wish Diablo were here instead of Cain.

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Arsenal FC 4-0-1 Pts: 12 Pos: Top of the league, where we belong.
character battle vii ; final fantasy
Lopen | Posted 9/22/2008 10:55:12 PM | message detail
Master Chief vs Phoenix Wright I think might be my all time favorite blowout ever if it were to happen.

Though I'm a bit conflicted whether it or Master Chief/Kefka or Master Chief/Alucard would have the bigger overall swing.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/22/2008 11:01:32 PM | message detail
MC/Kefka, no freaking question.

Hell, you could spot Kefka about 8,000 votes just to make it interesting

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character battle vii ; final fantasy
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/22/2008 11:04:11 PM | message detail
It still wouldn't beat the 10k vote swing from Alucard/Sora
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/22/2008 11:06:28 PM | message detail
From what I've noticed, when 2 characters are going up in percentage, the other 2 will be going down. I wish only Bowser could go up and the other 3 all go down because this will be helpful for my Oracle prediction. But this might only be possible if Bowser has an extremely good day vote and the other 3 have horrible day votes.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Lopen | Posted 9/22/2008 11:10:52 PM | message detail
Quite the contrary, I'm sure Master Chief would beat Kefka by well over 10k votes, and he'd probably be trailing in the first few minutes.

I don't really consider that a swing, though, didn't Alucard only ever get to like a 500 or 600 vote lead on Sora?
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/22/2008 11:11:30 PM | message detail

-LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/23/2008 2:06:28 AM (#442)
From what I've noticed, when 2 characters are going up in percentage, the other 2 will be going down.



WOW REALLY?!?! Thanks, Doctor Math.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/22/2008 11:14:52 PM | message detail
WOW REALLY?!?! Thanks, Doctor Math.

Meh. Then again, it is possible as I saw 3 characters going up in percentage and 1 going down. This was for an update like 10 minutes ago.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Malakuko | Posted 9/22/2008 11:19:14 PM | message detail
Luster

that was like

an extremely Lustery thing to say

even for you

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ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/22/2008 11:19:17 PM | message detail
Yeah dude a swing has to be like, one character vastly in the lead at the start.

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character battle vii ; final fantasy
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