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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 577

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/28/2008 1:38:50 PM | message detail
We probably needed a nice break before the Division 4 roller coaster kicks our butts. Let's see here...

Division 4 - Absolute hell.
Division 5 - Cube match is hell. Hayabusa/Zero might be funny. The other two are locks.
Division 6 - Boring. Nothing looks competitive.
Division 7 - Looks so-so. Big Boss/Kirby could be epic, and waiting for Hogger will be fun, I guess.
Division 8 - Everyone will be on pins and needles for Sandbag, but the other three look set.

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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/28/2008 1:39:48 PM | message detail
The thought of Big Daddy leeching Gordon didn't occur to me until I was writing that analysis. Probably won't happen, but it's on the table, I guess.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/28/2008 1:41:13 PM | message detail
Bioshock is a FPS that is actually very well respected on Gamefaqs due to it being more then just a generic FPS

I'd like to believe you, but Bioshock did very poorly in the GotY voting last year. I'm not expecting much from Daddy, and I do believe there's a Daddy/Gordon split on top of that (I adore Bioshock but will be voting for Gordon).
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/28/2008 1:42:43 PM | message detail
Big Daddy/Gordon SFF makes some amount of sense because they're from pretty similar games... single-player FPS with a like... good plot and stuffs ... I could see them sharing fans.. but they are on different systems predominantly, so I dunno.
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For your health.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve!
ZenOfThunder | Posted 9/28/2008 1:46:03 PM | message detail
I loved BioShock and Half-Life 2, but I'd NEVER vote a generic enemy over Gordon. I'm sure most fans of both games feel the same way.
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
Justin_Crossing | Posted 9/28/2008 2:07:25 PM | message detail
The thing is, Big Daddy has the "Holy **** big awesome scary enemy that looks awesome and terrifying, and also original." factor.
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Justin's CB Points: 34 | Points After this Round: 38
Today: Vincent > Falco | Tomorrow: Scorpion > Gordon Freeman
hailEC | Posted 9/28/2008 2:08:11 PM | message detail
He also has the "who the hell is this guy/thing?" factor.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/28/2008 2:08:36 PM | message detail
and also original." factor.

Big Daddies are cool and all, but they don't look original ;>_>
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For your health.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve!
Justin_Crossing | Posted 9/28/2008 2:09:09 PM | message detail

MoogleKupo141 (#408)
and also original." factor.

Big Daddies are cool and all, but they don't look original ;>_>


They're original as far as enemies go.
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Justin's CB Points: 34 | Points After this Round: 38
Today: Vincent > Falco | Tomorrow: Scorpion > Gordon Freeman
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/28/2008 2:14:20 PM | message detail
I dunno, I think I fought guys who look Big Daddies in a 2-D platformer once.
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For your health.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve!
Justin_Crossing | Posted 9/28/2008 2:17:35 PM | message detail
He's a lot more original than a Koopa Troopa or a zombie.
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Justin's CB Points: 34 | Points After this Round: 38
Today: Vincent > Falco | Tomorrow: Scorpion > Gordon Freeman
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/28/2008 2:17:43 PM | message detail
Today has me pretty convinced WCC will get through. Wish I'd picked it.
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MY BROTHERS WILL NOT HAVE DIED IN VAIN!
Now Playing: Final Fantasy 4 DS, Spore ~*ST*~
Lopen | Posted 9/28/2008 3:03:15 PM | message detail
Thinkin it'll be Tidus > WCC. Not sure, though. GlaDOS's percentage of 20% is still way too low to win second place in any match. WCC's percentage was similar in the exhibition match last year. The extent of the portal fanbase might be around 20%, in which case the joke base has to bring it the rest of the way.

Its name is pretty hilarious but it doesn't exactly have far reaching appeal like other joke entrants. I'm not sure... I felt a lot better about the cube when GlaDOS was hanging at 24% and I thought she was going to go up a little bit with the night.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Lopen | Posted 9/28/2008 3:04:30 PM | message detail
In any match where no character breaks 40%, anyway. Heh. Obviously Tidus won't be getting that.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/28/2008 3:06:16 PM | message detail
I loved BioShock and Half-Life 2, but I'd NEVER vote a generic enemy over Gordon. I'm sure most fans of both games feel the same way.

This. Bioshock fans would probably be more inclined to vote for Andrew Ryan or Frank Fontaine; Big Daddy isn't very interesting in the game.. Big Daddy will/would do better than them simply because people who haven't played the game will vote for him due to his pic, but I can't see most people who have played both games not going with Gordon.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/28/2008 3:07:33 PM | message detail
I'd vote for a Little Sister over a Big Daddy. No stupid pedo jokes; they were just a lot more interesting and I felt very sympathetic toward them.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/28/2008 3:07:56 PM | message detail
Ha ha I picked Cube > Tidus and Mega Man > Cube...

And I got Scorpion > Balthier tomorrow, haha my bracket will get raped.

But I still got a good chance to see my name on the top 50 tomorrow ^_^
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me
voltch | Posted 9/28/2008 3:13:31 PM | message detail
I wonder if one day we'll get a world/city contest,Hyrule/Midgar would win but it could throw a few nice elements of surprise.
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!
Yesmar | Posted 9/28/2008 3:14:11 PM | message detail
Here's why I'm wary of the Cube's chances. Let's assume it gets a stock percentage of 25% no matter what, which as far as I'm concerned is being generous. For it to then advance, all three of the other characters would have to split the vote equally. But that's not going to happen. Tidus and DK are noticably more popular than Tails which should be all that's needed for them to break 25%. Now, if DK and Tails leech each other somehow, the Cube might have shot.
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"Frerleorleolreolreorleolo!"--Crash Bandicoot
Yesmar | Posted 9/28/2008 3:16:37 PM | message detail
*a shot.
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"Frerleorleolreolreorleolo!"--Crash Bandicoot
Lopen | Posted 9/28/2008 3:23:55 PM | message detail
Actually, you know, it probably still will be Tidus > DK. I mean look at this:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2888&num=4

Marth is undoubtedly a stronger leech than Tails, and Kratos is easily stronger than Tidus. I doubt DK gets lower than what he has here despite the Cube being in place. Thinkin it goes something like this:

Tidus - 30%
DK - 27%
Cube - 23%
Tails - 20%

Considering Tidus split evenly with Vivi and Vivi beat DK by a good 12% this is probably about right after some Nintendo increase. But even if you wanna play the other way I doubt it gets worse than Tidus 27% DK 30%, DK isn't a powerhouse. Cube has a rough road ahead of him.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/28/2008 3:25:01 PM | message detail
I have to disagree about 25% being generous. GlaDOS is managing a healthy 20% right now and is doing it against tougher competition. Cube should have the same core Portal fanbase (really, why wouldn't he/it?), an overall weaker trio, and a stream of extra votes coming in for factors such as his name and picture (you know, the joke-y factors). Call me crazy, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him win by a few percent.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/28/2008 3:28:36 PM | message detail
Yeah the only reason I picked the Cube above both Tidus and DK was...

"Hmmm Tidus have to win this fourpack, I mean the competition is to weak, wait that's what I said last year and he performed like crap. It was hard to believe that Tidus actually was the main character of the same game as Auron was in. And DK, well DK always disappoints. ALWAYS.

Oh well go Tails!
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me
Lopen | Posted 9/28/2008 3:28:47 PM | message detail
Well, I just see two 20s in the Portal matches and I now have doubts about how far the Cube really extends outside its fanbase. How far can a really goofy name and the fact that it's a cube get it?

And you know, GlaDOS is an actual character worth voting for... Cube could lose some votes from some of the less fanatical about portal.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/28/2008 3:29:42 PM | message detail
http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/4969/ramza3cm9.png
http://img407.imageshack.us/img407/1865/ramza4eo0.png
http://img407.imageshack.us/img407/2139/ramza5zo7.png

Which is the best?

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/28/2008 3:31:15 PM | message detail
Tidus - 30%
DK - 27%
Cube - 23%
Tails - 20%


Come on, Lopen. GlaDOS has a realistic shot at 23% in that match. Let's at least acknowledge that Cube will get some joke support (at least enough to eclipse what GlaDOS would put forth).
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/28/2008 3:32:13 PM | message detail
Has Ramza always lacked a nose?
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i am false
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/28/2008 3:32:20 PM | message detail
I like the third one, but maaaan Ramza looks bad.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/28/2008 3:33:55 PM | message detail
Ramza has indeed always lacked a nose.

http://img71.imageshack.us/img71/6684/ramzar2ya3.png

They even kept it that way in the PSP remake cutscenes (which have no good body shots, I'm afraid).

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/28/2008 3:36:40 PM | message detail
For comparisan, here's the other pic I made of the only other usable Ramza body shot.

http://img511.imageshack.us/img511/1725/ramza2kn4.png

Should I just not bother submitting the other one?

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/28/2008 3:37:25 PM | message detail
Cube should have the same core Portal fanbase (really, why wouldn't he/it?

I dunno. While GlaDOS and WCC are from the same game, they're pretty different entrants. GlaDOS is a legit awesome character, whereas WCC is a total joke. I don't know if people who vote for legit awesome characters are big joke voters too.

I dunno

maybe
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For your health.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve!
Lopen | Posted 9/28/2008 3:38:39 PM | message detail
Come on, Lopen. GlaDOS has a realistic shot at 23% in that match.

Kinda. I wouldn't bet on it, though. But as I said, since GlaDOS is actually a genuinely likable character I kinda have my doubts that the whole fanbase jumps ship to Weighted Companion Cube.

And again, I think its name and it being "a damn cube" might be a bit overrated. Should be mostly people who have played Portal that think it's funny to vote for.

I wouldn't be surprised if GlaDOS = Cube at this point. We'll see, though.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/28/2008 3:41:05 PM | message detail
If Cube wins, will that make Sandbag look good, or will it reinforce the theory that voters like their joke characters to have right angles, thus foreshadowing the doom of Sandbag?
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/28/2008 3:47:58 PM | message detail
Cube won't win barring a big flop on either DK or Tidus's sides. And to be honest, neither's likely to happen. Tidus has pretty well-documented strength and DK grows somewhat with every year for some reason. The best WCC can hope for as shown by this match and its match last year is a good 22-25%.

As for Sandbag... Don't get your hopes up. Magus won't be affected by Sonic nearly as badly as he was by Mario and Big Boss. He'll get about 25%. Sonic's getting 45%, maybe nearing 50 without much hassle. The question is the strength of the fourth guy.

I forgot who that so that's all from me.
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The below statement is the most false thing in the world.
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WhatTheDarn | Posted 9/28/2008 3:57:52 PM | message detail
How would Solidus do in these contests? Stronger than Raiden? Weaker than Liquid?
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"War is no reason to end a friendship." - Solid Snake
Lopen | Posted 9/28/2008 4:02:30 PM | message detail
Raiden would destroy Solidus. Solidus would be the weakest Metal Gear entry we've seen, even weaker than the Boss, by a good margin.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/28/2008 4:02:33 PM | message detail
Weaker than both, I'd wager.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
transience | Posted 9/28/2008 4:07:04 PM | message detail
woo, home after a crazy weekend in NYC

can someone give me a summary of our consensus thoughts over the last two matches? I'd guess something like this:

Frog/KOS: woo Frog did pretty good and/or Ganon bombed NINTENDO DE-BOOST; Neku is clearly stronger than Sho
Glados/Falco: Falco's looking pretty good, but so does Glados. Cube's gotta be looked at as a serious threat since it's gotta be more recognizable than Glados. Glados looks like a legit character with a good night vote as opposed to a "joke character".

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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
TestIcicles | Posted 9/28/2008 4:10:13 PM | message detail
did you have sex with a tranny you didnt know was a tranny until you took off his pants and were like "uhh.... what the hell we're already here" so you did it anyway?

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mmm test icicles
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/28/2008 4:56:00 PM | message detail
Once again, I don't understand the Cube support. The only joke characters ever that haven't sucked are Mudkip and L-block, both very recognizable from 2 of the best selling game series ever. The average joe isn't going to know what the hell a Companion Cube is, and the Portal fanbase seems to be the type that would be against "non-characters" winning in a character battle.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/28/2008 4:59:13 PM | message detail
Frog did to Ganondorf what he would be expected to do through 2k5 stats. So either Frog didn't drop, or Samus didn't SFF Ganondorf at all. Or Ganondorf dropped at the same rate Frog did, which makes sense given his lackluster 2k6 and 2k7 appearances.
Yesmar | Posted 9/28/2008 4:59:59 PM | message detail

can someone give me a summary of our consensus thoughts over the last two matches? I'd guess something like this:


Pretty much all that you said, except that we didn't have a picture for the first hour of Ganon/Frog/KOS-MOS/Neku, so we were all speculating if KOS-MOS could catch up or not once it was revealed.

KOS-MOS ended up increasing a little at Frog's expense, but Neku actually did the most impressive and tore up the percentage when his picture was revealed.
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"Frerleorleolreolreorleolo!"--Crash Bandicoot
Yesmar | Posted 9/28/2008 5:02:10 PM | message detail
Frog did to Ganondorf what he would be expected to do through 2k5 stats. So either Frog didn't drop, or Samus didn't SFF Ganondorf at all. Or Ganondorf dropped at the same rate Frog did, which makes sense given his lackluster 2k6 and 2k7 appearances.

I would say the latter's probably true, although I will defend Ganon and say that 2006 was not bad for him. He lost to Vincent by the same amount he was expected to in 2005.
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"Frerleorleolreolreorleolo!"--Crash Bandicoot
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/28/2008 5:04:14 PM | message detail
And Sandbag and L-block have a lot going against them. Even if either of them gets out of the first round, they're both against 2 huge characters and 1 weak character in the second round.

Though, they are joke characters so who knows, but my gut is telling me they won't have much impact this year.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/28/2008 5:06:34 PM | message detail
KOS-MOS ended up increasing a little at Frog's expense, but Neku actually did the most impressive and tore up the percentage when his picture was revealed.

I would argue that that had more to do with the Frog Power Hour ending just as the picture came up. We saw Falco completely fall off the map at 1am on the dot.
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/28/2008 5:08:23 PM | message detail
Ganondorf did about 3% better vs Frog than he was expected to. Here's approximate stats:
Ganondorf=50
Frog=34
KOS-MOS=28.5
Neku=19.5

By comparison, Samus/Ganondorf and Samus/Frog says Frog gets 37.12% on Ganondorf.
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Mustache...and green...
Lopen | Posted 9/28/2008 5:16:14 PM | message detail
We saw Falco completely fall off the map at 1am on the dot.

Most of KOS-MOS's damage came from Ganondorf, actually. No doubt the pic helped her... though it was clear the pic helped Neku "unrecognizable name" Sakuraba more than her.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Link The Hylian | Posted 9/28/2008 5:20:06 PM | message detail
"Though, they are joke characters so who knows, but my gut is telling me they won't have much impact this year."

We'll see. Hopefully I'm not the only one who will quickly lose interest in this contest if any joke character starts to show signs of winning it again.

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"The PS2 had 12,000,000 pre orders. To give you an idea of how many people that is that's over half of the world population." - DifferentialEquation
TestIcicles | Posted 9/28/2008 5:23:39 PM | message detail
it's gonna happen. L's gonna take it home.

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mmm test icicles
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/28/2008 5:33:20 PM | message detail
Their first round matches are critical. If Cube makes it past Round 1, Cube will find itself in the division finals. If L-Block stays close to Ryu in Round 1, L-Block probably goes to the semis.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
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