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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 644

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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/26/2008 6:35:06 PM | message detail

Going by that logic, why does his fanbase only show up against stronger characters? If his fans are dedicated, they would vote for him no matter what, no? That would make him overperform on weaker characters too.

It does show up, but Gordon ends up doing worse relative to what you'd EXPECT from him because his percentage doesn't grow like it "should" when pitted against a weakling. Call it the "Pac-Man" factor. No way does Pac put the kind of numbers up on a powerhouse that Ocelot does, but he still beat him. Same reason why Pac would be a sexy upset pick against Gordon 1v1.

Put another way - 58% on Phoenix Wright doesn't translate to 36% on Sora with most other characters. It just doesn't, and Phoenix proved that the very next year.
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Yesmar | Posted 11/26/2008 6:36:50 PM | message detail

Gordon doing so well on Sora probably had more to do with massive bandwagoning on him due to him breaking GFNW than because of any intrinsic variability.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!

Karma Hunter | Posted 11/26/2008 6:37:04 PM | message detail

Would Falco get 36% against Sora?

Using your point, how about Ness?

Not a chance on both accounts, but that doesn't make them any less viable of picks. Rather, it reinforces the reason for picking them over Gordon in the first place - they're not capable of retaining their numbers in the face of a powerhouse, but that doesn't mean they can't take a guy whose games half the site still probably hasn't played.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 11/26/2008 6:38:11 PM | message detail

Same reason why Pac would be a sexy upset pick against Gordon 1v1.

Do you see why I always argue for characters like Gordon? No matter what happens or how strong he proves he is, there will always be people like you who consider him a weakling like he was before Half-Life 2. Same deal with Duke Nukem.
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Good Times,
Great Memories

Karma Hunter | Posted 11/26/2008 6:38:56 PM | message detail

Gordon doing so well on Sora probably had more to do with massive bandwagoning on him due to him breaking GFNW than because of any intrinsic variability.

These are a LOT of excuses for something we've seen for three years running - Gordon's performance on Phoenix compared to his on Sora, his two performances against Duke, his two showings against Scorpion. Will there be yet another if he goes out and does it again next year?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/26/2008 6:40:45 PM | message detail

Duke's weaker than Marth, who got his face pounded in by Donkey Kong. He IS weak.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 11/26/2008 6:40:47 PM | message detail

but that doesn't mean they can't take a guy whose games half the site still probably hasn't played.

I doubt that. Orange Box was a huge game.
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Good Times,
Great Memories

LeonhartFour | Posted 11/26/2008 6:42:49 PM | message detail

Okay, let's try this bad upsets thing:

SC2K4:
Luigi > Yoshi
Jak > Ness
Viewtiful Joe > Tails
...Sonic > Samus

SC2K5:
Vivi > Zelda
Tidus > Ryu in the Dream Division Finals (Let's just add the entire Dream Division to this list, shall we?)
...Terra > Dante
Sonic > Mega Man
...Kratos Aurion > Diablo

SC2K6:
Celes > The Boss
Zero > Luigi and Kirby

Hmmm...One of my better contests, looks like!

SC2K7:
Knuckles > Yoshi twice
Oh, I got Ocelot > Jill this year for good upset picks! Forgot to mention that!
Got Vincent > Zelda, too!
Link > Edgeworth > Bidoof
...Luigi > Tingle > Mudkip
Kirby > Laharl > L-Block (and consequently, every L-Block match!)

And yet somehow, I would've gotten 10th place in this contest had it not been for the fact that I accidentally voted twice in one match! Whoo, I'm a vote stuffer!

SC2K8:
Lucario and Niko to round 3
Knuckles > Zelda
Meta Knight > L-Block
Ike > Pikachu
Kratos Aurion to round 3
MC > Sonic

Games Contest:
Mario 3 winning it all!
...Tetris > Zelda
...Sonic 2 > Mario World (darn you sonic)
Metroid Prime > Wind Waker
Kingdom Hearts > Halo
Kingdom Hearts > Metroid Prime in round 3
...Yet I called SSBM winning this division, to my surprise! I don't know how my fanboyism prevented me from picking FFX!

Villains Contest:
...Ocelot > Bowser
...Ridley > Diablo
...Kefka > Bison

Series Contest:
Sonic > Smash Bros. (darn you sonic)

Apparently, my Sonic upset finally paying off in SC2K6 has cured my bad-Sonic-pick-itis!
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://qirien.icecavern.net/final_fantasy/icons/squall_bunnysuit.gif

Karma Hunter | Posted 11/26/2008 6:42:54 PM | message detail

There's a nontrivial amount of people that picked up Orange Box and never played a moment of Half-Life. Portal and TF2 were in there as well.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 11/26/2008 6:45:41 PM | message detail

LeonhartFour | Posted 11/26/2008 6:46:39 PM | message detail

Duke being a fan favorite

*snicker*
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://qirien.icecavern.net/final_fantasy/icons/squall_bunnysuit.gif

Yesmar | Posted 11/26/2008 6:46:55 PM | message detail

These are a LOT of excuses for something we've seen for three years running - Gordon's performance on Phoenix compared to his on Sora, his two performances against Duke, his two showings against Scorpion. Will there be yet another if he goes out and does it again next year?

But last year has a perfectly logical explanations as well. The Duke thing is perfectly understanable. The Orange Box probably did boost Gordon *somewhat.* Not much, but it wouldn't have to be much to put him over the top and once that happened, whatever weird FPS connection exists between them plus 4th place factor kicked in to exasperate the situation. I'll admit that I don't have any explanation for this year besides Big Daddy, but, hey, flukes happened. It's possible that Big Daddy leeching votes just exasperated whatever issue happened between the rounds. But I still don't see any logical reason for Gordon to be more variable than any other contest character. If it's due to some hardcore GameFAQS Half-Life fanbase, I'd sure like to see it.

And why are people acting as if Pac-Man is that crazy? He collapses against anyone with name recognition, but his performances otherwise in 2002, 2003, 2005 (1st Round) and 2008 have been *very* consistent.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest

XxSoulxX | Posted 11/26/2008 6:48:00 PM | message detail

There's a nontrivial amount of people that picked up Orange Box and never played a moment of Half-Life. Portal and TF2 were in there as well.

... really? Come on now, find a better argument then that.
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Good Times,
Great Memories

Yesmar | Posted 11/26/2008 6:48:28 PM | message detail

Orange Box was a huge game.

GameFAQS doesn't like shooters that much, I doubt it helped him that much except for possibly that one match in R2 last year.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!

Karma Hunter | Posted 11/26/2008 6:49:07 PM | message detail

People WANT to believe Gordon is strong. They gave them their faith after he was given a cupcake fourpack, and he blew it against Nukem and nearly lost to pre-Brawl Ike. If Duke was such a fan-fave he wouldn't have lost to Marth this year - but he did, and that's just the way it goes. And again, looking at the way the monkey that slaughtered Marth did this year (blown away by Tidus?) - Gordon had no excuses. No way Duke gets 36% on Sora.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/26/2008 6:51:48 PM | message detail

I mean jeez people *I* could probably beat Tidus in a contest match
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/26/2008 6:55:46 PM | message detail

...I hate you, Da--KH.

*cries*
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://qirien.icecavern.net/final_fantasy/icons/squall_bunnysuit.gif

Karma Hunter | Posted 11/26/2008 6:57:24 PM | message detail

You, beat me in a contest match? You can't even catch a ball!
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trannyscience | Posted 11/26/2008 6:58:40 PM | message detail

this is going absolutely nowhere good.
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xyzzy
blah blah blah Fastfalcon blah blah blah Solid Snake blah blah blah Guru Contest blah

LeonhartFour | Posted 11/26/2008 6:58:49 PM | message detail

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://qirien.icecavern.net/final_fantasy/icons/squall_bunnysuit.gif

Karma Hunter | Posted 11/26/2008 7:00:12 PM | message detail

Now! Now is the time to choose! Die free of pain, or live and participate in the offseason!
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trannyscience | Posted 11/26/2008 7:00:32 PM | message detail

oh my god
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xyzzy
blah blah blah Fastfalcon blah blah blah Solid Snake blah blah blah Guru Contest blah

LeonhartFour | Posted 11/26/2008 7:00:38 PM | message detail

I promise this'll be quick! Hit me with all you got, KH!
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://qirien.icecavern.net/final_fantasy/icons/squall_bunnysuit.gif

KamikazePotato | Posted 11/26/2008 7:16:21 PM | message detail

good

god

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.

LeonhartFour | Posted 11/26/2008 8:35:55 PM | message detail

Told you it'd be quick!
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://qirien.icecavern.net/final_fantasy/icons/squall_bunnysuit.gif

Mr3790 | Posted 11/26/2008 8:36:45 PM | message detail

Hi stats Topic 644!

...In other news the first thread of offseason has got into an "Epic" debate!
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AC:WW Code: Name:Mr.378 Town:Darkcity FC: 4210-5769-8462
GENO WHIRL!

ZFS | Posted 11/26/2008 8:56:14 PM | message detail

this is going absolutely nowhere good.

Haha

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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/26/2008 8:58:01 PM | message detail

You know what? Screw you all, I'm arguing for Zidane>Link next year

Defeat is not an option unless I get defeated

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.

KommunistKoala | Posted 11/26/2008 9:00:06 PM | message detail

son, I was arguing Zidane > Link as soon as his round 1 match started!

Not very hard, mind you, but arguing none the less.
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sometimes when i play tetris and nobody is home i make male genitals out of the blocks and pleasure myself~AS FastFalcon ate me for breakfast

LeonhartFour | Posted 11/26/2008 9:29:52 PM | message detail

...I liked where we were going before.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://qirien.icecavern.net/final_fantasy/icons/squall_bunnysuit.gif

Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/26/2008 11:23:47 PM | message detail

This is disasterrific!
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
FastFalcon sure showed us his moves in the Guru Contest!

Gaddswell | Posted 11/27/2008 2:46:19 AM | message detail

What a fast stats topic for the offseason this is!
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaGWrPcjb8

KamikazePotato | Posted 11/27/2008 5:21:47 PM | message detail

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.

charmander6000 | Posted 11/27/2008 5:39:01 PM | message detail

Did you just bump the stats topic?

So is Chrono Trigger still the third strongest game or does LttP or something else surpass it now?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.

red sox 777 | Posted 11/28/2008 7:48:08 AM | message detail

Prior to CTDS, LTTP was probably stronger. Now, I'll go with CT again.
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon

Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/28/2008 8:19:13 AM | message detail

Prior to CTDS, LTTP was probably stronger.

Which begs the question: How did CT manage to hold off Link to the Past anyways?
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
FastFalcon sure showed us his moves in the Guru Contest!

red sox 777 | Posted 11/28/2008 8:32:15 AM | message detail

That was in 2004. You know, when Mario only managed to win 3 15-minute updates against Crono all day.
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon

Yesmar | Posted 11/28/2008 8:33:22 AM | message detail

How did CT manage to hold off Link to the Past anyways?

Change in the poll placement.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!

Ngamer64 | Posted 11/28/2008 12:49:16 PM | message detail

Oh jeez- some of the things said in the last two pages just blew my mind. Thank goodness Thanksgiving came along to put an end to all that nonsense talk!

Alright, we've reached the end of the latest string of Got Console polls. Let's run a full Trend Watch Update so we can see where we now stand.

in the ~6 months from July '08 to now...

* The Wii is up 2.05%
(from 59.82% to 61.87%)

* The 360 is up 2.11%
(from 50.22% to 52.33%)

* The PS3 is up 7.61%
(from 26.29% to 33.90%)

* The DS is up 3.82%
(from 66.23% to 70.05%)

* The PSP is up 10.08%
(from 32.68% to 42.76%)

First up, what the heck happened to the 360? A lower starting share + plus a price drop (I think?) + every reason to boost, and yet it only manages to go even with a system that had a higher starting share, no price drop, and zero reason to boost? Not that a 2% increase at this state in its life is so bad, but only managing that much when the main reason people are visiting the site at the moment is to discuss Fable II or Fallout 3 or Gears 2 or Last Remnant or the latest CoD, you've got to chalk that up as disappointing.

The PS3 gain is really nice, but to keep things in perspective it would need another jump that huge just to match the Atari, and another boost and a half in order to reach the share the original Xbox achieved, so... still got some work cut out for it.

That 4% gain for the DS really wows me. No killer releases (except for CT:DS, but this poll might have come a few days early to really feel that effect) yet it still puts together a very nice gain. It's pretty much a lock that by the next update the DS will have passed by the SNES to become the 6th most owned Nintendo system in GameFAQs historys... BUT, with strong holiday sales it's entirely possible that by the next update the DS could pass the GBA and GameCube as well, leaving only the N64, NES, and original GameBoy still to catch!

And then there's the PSP. Just, whoa! No system has ever managed a 10% gain in so short an amount of time. This leaves the people insulting Zack believers because "no character could be strong when only 1/3 the site owns his handheld" looking pretty silly- it would appear that Zack sold a PSP to something like 8% of GameFAQs all on his own! I guess there were some other notable releases, like the new God of War, but I'd have to imagine that the FF7 brand name was the biggest system mover. This big gain puts the PSP just a touch back of the Xbox overall.

As always, you can see full stats and more over at

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Got_Console

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thengamer.com/guru/ says we just got owned hard by FastFalcon!
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com are neat)

Gaddswell | Posted 11/28/2008 2:32:03 PM | message detail

10% for the PSP just because of Crisis Core and GoW?

ZackFAQS indeed

If it really was Crisis Core that did this, things look good for Dissidia.
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Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!

WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/28/2008 2:35:28 PM | message detail

aww yeah come on Cecil > Fodder Line after Dissidia.
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~War~ The Cream of Transexual FastFalcon Fanboyism ~War~

LeonhartFour | Posted 11/28/2008 4:06:30 PM | message detail

If he can just get some recognizable artwork from Dissidia, I think that'd be enough.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://qirien.icecavern.net/final_fantasy/icons/squall_bunnysuit.gif

ZFS | Posted 11/29/2008 2:46:13 AM | message detail

So is Chrono Trigger still the third strongest game or does LttP or something else surpass it now?

I think ALttP takes Chrono Trigger easy today, even accounting for whatever boost CTDS may provide. Mario 3, Melee, and maybe Brawl are a few others I'd probably take over it, too.

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transience | Posted 11/29/2008 2:58:37 AM | message detail

CT is a whole different animal in 2004 than any other year. tough to say anything conclusively, but there are a lot of reasons to suggest that it isn't in the LTTP/SSBM/Mario 3 class post-Boost.

then again, you can argue it the other way as well.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon

Lopen | Posted 11/29/2008 3:03:46 AM | message detail

39. Raiden – 26.87%
40. Vivi Orunitia – 26.62%
41. Sub-Zero – 26.39%
42. Wario – 26.34%
43. Alucard – 26.01%
44. Chris Redfield – 26.00%
45. Frog – 25.78%
46. Riku – 25.56%
47. Gordon Freeman – 25.47%

Laugh about Fox all you want Soul but I have the trump card here! RaidenFAQs oh yes.

And dammit I picked Link > MC > Cloud dammit, not MC > Link. And that was based off of potential LFF from Snake and Cloud. If you're gonna call me on insanity, call it right! Not like it's hard to do!
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FastFalcon's quest to defeat Lopen: Round - blagh I am dead.
Target: 467+. Target obtained and shattered damn you FastFalcon.

Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/29/2008 3:07:29 AM | message detail

Lulz Lopen your Final upset character couldn't even beat Kirby, you suck at prediciting these contests.

Oh wait he also beat Sonic >_<, damn...

So are we expecting Snake to get weaker from now on, or will he someday upset Link?
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. FastFalcon05 > Me

Lopen | Posted 11/29/2008 3:09:29 AM | message detail

Actually I had Cloud > Link in the final this year... MC > Cloud the round previous though, so I realize this only makes me slightly less wrong. I'm just saying get these things right. My fanboyism has only ever put MC in the 45% on BL range... is that so wrong I mean reall-- don't answer that.
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FastFalcon's quest to defeat Lopen: Round - blagh I am dead.
Target: 467+. Target obtained and shattered damn you FastFalcon.

Lopen | Posted 11/29/2008 3:25:27 AM | message detail

And personally, I don't believe MGS4 will be the last MGS game. I don't know, it just seems very Kojima to pop out a MGS5 despite claiming this is the end of the series. Though I guess it's a moot point since I doubt Snake can outdo this year as far as releases go, even with a MGS5.

(Also MGS5'll be time for Raiden's mega boost-- sit down, Snake)
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FastFalcon's quest to defeat Lopen: Round - blagh I am dead.
Target: 467+. Target obtained and shattered damn you FastFalcon.

LeonhartFour | Posted 11/29/2008 8:28:01 AM | message detail

He never said it was the end of the Metal Gear series, just the last game with Solid Snake as the star.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://qirien.icecavern.net/final_fantasy/icons/squall_bunnysuit.gif

Haste_2 | Posted 11/29/2008 1:47:18 PM | message detail

Here comes my rants for the (several) month(s)... all at once!

It's that Freeman has pretty much ZERO overlap. We're talking about pretty much one of the only characters who simply CANNOT be SFFed by virtually any character, and even when he can it's practically negligible. His base is extremely loyal. This is the polar opposite of characters like Falco, who despite having no disproportionate overlap crumble when placed against credible opposition.

I agree that he has a loyal fanbase, in the sense that he's hard to hit with that "4th place factor". If you place Link and Cloud and some other elite in the same poll, we might see an exception, then maybe so. =P I doubt any character could avoid being underrated in that situation... we've seen Snake (2K7) and Crono get destroyed in their final rounds for that reason. As for having an extra-loyal fanbase, I can't exactly agree with that, as his proportion to Vincent was nearly identical in both of their matches. I definitely agree with you on Falco. I figure others like Marth are the same way... I simply cannot attribute Duke Nukem's major victory over Marth in R2 purely to major leeching by Lucario.

You want my honest opinion? Freeman would likely lose to Falco 1v1, because there's just enough SSB fanbase out there that hasn't even heard of Gordon Freeman to beat that loyal HL base straight up. We're still talking about a character whose sole 1v1 win in these contests is Phoenix Wright.

I'd take Falco over Freeman 1-vs-1 as well, by a narrow margin. I don't think he's as bad 1-on-1 as you think he is, but that's another topic for another day.

These are a LOT of excuses for something we've seen for three years running - Gordon's performance on Phoenix compared to his on Sora, his two performances against Duke, his two showings against Scorpion. Will there be yet another if he goes out and does it again next year?

All of those can be explained by PEOPLE UNDERRATING HIM. His performance on Leon: His strength after Half-Life 2. His performance on Phoenix: People not wanting to see GFNW die, so they vote for Phoenix. His performance on Sora: His legit strength. His first round match against Duke: Duke being a fan favorite. His second round match: Orange Box. His first round performance this year: Orange Box. His second round: Big Daddy gone, Scorpion's horrible picture. His third round: legit strength off of Vincent (no, he's not stronger then Ganondorf).

To explain Scorption doing worse than Gordon the next round, I think Scorpion just tends to get hurt abnormally with extra competition, particularly when there's at least two characters that can compete or beat him. He held up well against Samus because only Samus could compete with him. Scorp appeared to hold up as well against Samus the next round... except it was clear that Samus was hurt by fanbase leeching by Yoshi and maybe Mega Man to a small degree, so I think Scorpion disappointed there. Likewise with the round 2 match of this year.

It's true that Scorpion could've just been stronger last year, but at least I made a case where it could've been Scorp who underperformed, not Gordon who over-performed. But, to add more in favor of the Gordon's score being accurate, just compare to how well he did against Vincent the next round... almost identical proportions. Also, Sub-Zero didn't appear to be any weaker this year (exempting Subby's R1 match last year).

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

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