GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 939
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/6/2010 9:22:42 PM | message detail |
What's your guys' current At Risk points in the battle contest? 5500 right now, although I already have 6600 banked points. I was thinking of banking on Persona 3/Civilization, but I think I might hold off on banking and try to get make it to TWEWY/Dead Rising before banking. That will mean that I must get Persona 3/Civilization correct, plus another 3 matches correct before I can bank again. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ! |
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/6/2010 9:23:00 PM | message detail |
I'd
be surprised if MKWii choked, honestly. Phoenix himself seems to be a
lot stronger than his games, and Phoenix is no powerhouse to begin
with! --- CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 31 Darth Revan has been avenged. |
pjbasis | Posted 11/6/2010 9:23:11 PM | message detail |
oo is that what they call getting ninja'd? |
AppreciateTrees | Posted 11/6/2010 9:24:18 PM | message detail |
The seeding pretty much is the only thing that has me scared Crap like Demon's Souls and No Mercy got decent seeds too, so I don't why you're worried about it. MK will win easy, like you think. --- "Of course I'm going to rig the contest in my favor." - SBAllen |
pjbasis | Posted 11/6/2010 9:25:03 PM | message detail |
There's no way TWEWY is gonna lose to Dead Rising. Every streak has some big risk if you wanna win. Which is why I'm not gonna bank and take Persona 3. I guess by that logic something as easy as MKWii should be nothing. |
abdou | Posted 11/6/2010 9:26:29 PM | message detail |
A
lot of people are going to bank on P3/Civ IV and TWEWY/DR matches, if I
can nail both I will have a long streak and jump in the rankings. --- ... |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/6/2010 9:30:30 PM | message detail |
TWEWY
is still an underdog against Dead Rising, and I'm sure the Oracle will
reflect that. Its only decent showing ever was against a bunch of
remakes in a DS GotY poll. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3360 That is not promising. While no one should expect much from Dead Rising, it has a new sequel out and is an up-trending series. |
Haste_2 | Posted 11/6/2010 9:31:05 PM | message detail |
DMC's
a night owl, so there's a pretty good chance it will finish above 40%
when all is said and done. Isn't it weird how Dante is so strong, but
his games are not? I'm not banking till AT LEAST Pheonix Wright vs Mario Kart Wii. It is pretty easy once we get past Skies of Arcadia/Baldur's Gate II; it seems like pretty smooth sailing on the battle challenge from there until TTYD vs. Gears of War. The next few days, however, are brutal. I just hope I miss no more than 2 matches over the next 5 days. Assuming I guess Persona 3/Civ IV correctly, I'm going to be banking on TWEWY/Dead Rising because it's just way to risky to go through all THAT... --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
Greyfeld | Posted 11/6/2010 9:32:46 PM | message detail |
Considering
my long streak of horrible misses in this first round, I can't bank on
any of these upcoming matches if I'm going to have any chance in
catching up to the leader board. That said, I'm still going back and
forth about P3/Civ4 and TWEWY/DR. I want to believe that Civ4 will pull
out the win, but I have almost zero information to work on, and I'm
scared to death of RPGFAQS slamming me yet again. Similar story with
Dead Rising, only it's casual console game vs. niche handheld RPG. It's
kinda like RB2/DX all over again, except the RPG in this case isn't
very well known. |
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 11/6/2010 9:33:07 PM | message detail |
wow KOTOR is freggin destroying. --- My God, did that predict good! Dr_Football-l-l it no goin' and you tell me do things, I done runnin'... |
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 11/6/2010 9:33:47 PM | message detail |
well no so much destroying, but it's certainly doing much better than I thought --- My God, did that predict good! Dr_Football-l-l it no goin' and you tell me do things, I done runnin'... |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/6/2010 9:33:50 PM | message detail |
And
yeah, if you're planning to bank your 12,000 points now (assuming you
don't have 50k+ like HM), then you're gonna NEED to go crazy and call
every single match from the third round onward to even have a shot.
Lots of people are gonna finish this contest on a roll, so it could
easily be this first round that makes a difference. Remember: finishing strong in the battle contest isn't nearly as critical as finishing strong in the traditional bracket. In the battle contest, every match carries equal importance. |
Mr_Big_Boss | Posted 11/6/2010 9:35:03 PM | message detail |
KOTOR is winning, who picked DMC for their battle challenge? --- the end of one nightmare, prelude to the another... |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/6/2010 9:35:15 PM | message detail |
DMC's a night owl, so there's a pretty good chance it will finish above 40% when all is said and done. DMC is good overnight while Star Wars games do not have a good night vote. Star Wars games have the typical trends seen by Xbox games like Halo. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ! |
pjbasis | Posted 11/6/2010 9:36:06 PM | message detail |
I'd put TWEWY into Deus Ex category. People should know about it's critical acclaim, and I think GameFAQs is less scared of handheld RPGs than PC games. I mean, it was made by Square, how niche could it be? And Dead Rising is kind of a Demon's Souls here to me, with a bit more mainstream but less acclaim. I think this will hurt it more than it helps. |
Greyfeld | Posted 11/6/2010 9:36:38 PM | message detail |
DMC is good overnight while Star Wars games do not have a good night vote. Star Wars games have the typical trends seen by Xbox games like Halo. You're ignoring the fact that KOTOR is also heavily a WRPG and a PC game. |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/6/2010 9:38:30 PM | message detail |
You're ignoring the fact that KOTOR is also heavily a WRPG and a PC game. Doesn't change the fact that it acts like an Xbox game with its trends. Call of Duty games have a powerful day vote and they aren't solely Xbox-exclusive. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ! |
abdou | Posted 11/6/2010 9:40:40 PM | message detail |
Even
though it just got a sequel, dead rising is the kind of game that comes
and goes quickly, people forget about it after a month or two. Its not
a Game of the decade material. Besides, a lot of people didn't even
like the original Dead Rising. --- ... |
Greyfeld | Posted 11/6/2010 9:41:45 PM | message detail |
I'd put TWEWY into Deus Ex category. People should know about it's critical acclaim, and I think GameFAQs is less scared of handheld RPGs than PC games. I mean, it was made by Square, how niche could it be? And Dead Rising is kind of a Demon's Souls here to me, with a bit more mainstream but less acclaim. I think this will hurt it more than it helps. The thing is, DX is a decade old and sold over a million copies. TWEWY sold half that and hasn't been around long enough to be considered a classic. Also, its main character lost to Laharl of all characters during the last contest. That said, I'm not sure how popular Dead Rising is. I haven't heard anything about it on this website. It's basically a beat-em-up with zombies, and action games haven't proven to be very strong here. |
creativename | Posted 11/6/2010 9:43:58 PM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | #951 This is a terrible way to look at it because Cloud *definitely*, without question boosted more from Kingdom Hearts. Which makes perfect sense - Cloud was a supporting character of some note, Sephiroth an optional boss fight a player might not even become aware of. I find it extremely doubtful Cloud was stronger than Sephiroth in 2K2. People act as if characters from the same franchise/company can't flip strength for some reason. Hierarchies are not static. From: charmander6000 | #952 No. Trying to say that Cloud *was* stronger than Sephiroth in a year in which he lost to Mario, just because he later became stronger than Sephiroth, is extremely circular logic. From: LeonhartFour | #955 Indeed - and in fact I and most FF7 fans would've assumed at the time that Sephiroth was stronger. He just seemed more popular amongst the fanbase at the time. From: red sox 777 | #960 Did you forget how big the Kingdom Hearts boost was for Squall - *and* Sephiroth, who again was just an optional boss fight, and was the #2 most popular character on the site to begin with (or at worst #2A if you insist on believing Cloud was stronger)? It's very clear Cloud was not at 57% on Mario in 2K2, not a chance whatsoever, not even close, absolutely not, in no way shape or form, not a snowball's chance in hell, etc. etc. Mario/Cloud was definitely a bit flukey, but nowhere near that flukey. If I had to guess Cloud was probably "naturally", sans cheating/PGC/any Sunshine effect, more like 51.5%-52.5%, but that's just a guess. 57% is far beyond rational argument though. From: charmander6000 | #1001 Reasonable numbers do not "suggest" this. Again, all you have to do is look at the way Squall I (who I don't think was even named in the game as anything other than "Leon"?) and Sephiroth boosted. Not much too it. Kingdom Hearts boost was absolutely huge on this site, even for Sephiroth who had a much smaller role than Cloud. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
AppreciateTrees | Posted 11/6/2010 9:45:44 PM | message detail |
Dead Rising because zombies in general are such a huge fad right now. --- "Of course I'm going to rig the contest in my favor." - SBAllen |
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/6/2010 9:49:22 PM | message detail |
creativename, do you know if the day light savings switch over will cause any problems for the poll updater? --- "Let me believe what you've always believed! That living is wonderful!" "Thank you so much... Thank you for loving me." |
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/6/2010 9:52:36 PM | message detail |
Oh man. Sephiroth stronger than Cloud? Can I please have a time machine back to 2002? Let's just switch Sephiroth and Cloud's positions in the bracket please! --- http://i974.photobucket.com/albums/ae229/yungflyerz/67106910.jpg |
XxSoulxX | Posted 11/6/2010 9:55:47 PM | message detail |
There
is no way in any year that Sephiroth was stronger than Cloud. Did you
not realize when Crono whooped Magus that being the "fan favorite"
means nothing against main characters? The only exception is when main
characters are hated (FFX, FFXII). Cloud was never hated, and would
have killed Sephiroth in 2002. --- Good Times, Great Memories |
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/6/2010 9:58:43 PM | message detail |
From: XxSoulxX | #374 Cloud didn't even kill Sephiroth in 2003! --- http://i974.photobucket.com/albums/ae229/yungflyerz/67106910.jpg |
XxSoulxX | Posted 11/6/2010 9:59:17 PM | message detail |
He killed him Ulti-style. --- "Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename |
red sox 777 | Posted 11/6/2010 10:01:27 PM | message detail |
If
I had to guess a figure for Cloud against Mario in 2002, it'd be around
53-54%. Can't really see Mario being weaker than Sonic in any year. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
pjbasis | Posted 11/6/2010 10:01:47 PM | message detail |
They were pretty damn close in that 1v1 final match they had. Which one was that again? |
charmander6000 | Posted 11/6/2010 10:02:10 PM | message detail |
Reasonable
numbers do not "suggest" this. Again, all you have to do is look at the
way Squall I (who I don't think was even named in the game as anything
other than "Leon"?) and Sephiroth boosted. Not much too it. Kingdom
Hearts boost was absolutely huge on this site, even for Sephiroth who
had a much smaller role than Cloud. I'm not spinning this, two different characters from Cloud's half bracket suggested he should have won over Mario 58/42 and you know what Cloud still would have boosted crazy. He equalled Link's Wind Waker boost and then proceeded to bridge the gap between them and win. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 31/36 Today's Matches: SW: KotOR & FE |
charmander6000 | Posted 11/6/2010 10:06:39 PM | message detail |
Updated Top 5 Top 5 Least Popular Night Polls 1. Valkyria Chronicles vs. Disgaea (R1) – 31260 2. Bioshock vs. Star Wars: Battlefront II (R1) – 34083 3. Perfect Dark vs. Conker’s BFD (R1) – 35424 4. Golden Sun vs. Ratchet & Clank: UYA (R1) – 35439 5. Pokemon DPP vs. Metroid Fusion (R1) – 36120 Top 5 Least Popular Day Polls 1. GTA: San Andreas vs. Dead Space (R1) – 44238 2. Fire Emblem: PoR vs. WWF No Mercy (R1) – 45759 3. CoD4: Modern Warfare vs. PoP: Sands of Time (R1) – 46044 4. Half-Life 2 vs. Left 4 Dead 2 (R1) – 48020 5. Okami vs. No More Heroes (R1) – 49230 Top 5 Least Impressive Day Winners 1. Deus Ex (R1) – 25117 2. Morrowind (R1) – 25522 3. Street Fighter IV (R1) – 27481 4. Borderlands (R1) – 27909 5. GTA: San Andreas (R1) – 28952 --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 31/36 Today's Matches: SW: KotOR & FE |
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 10:07:01 PM | message detail |
Yikes. What happened that day? --- DFF |
creativename | Posted 11/6/2010 10:08:16 PM | message detail |
Wow, very interesting user ratings chart from KP. Great job KP! I don't suppose someone can break down the matches that have already taken place according to that chart? I'll start off with the first (sorry excuse for a) division (did I mention how much this division sucks? What a POS weakling division): Fallout 3: 7628 (360, PS3, PC) Infamous: 1193 > Fallout 3 - 81% (86.48% proportion of ratings - hit,1 for 1) Rock Band 2: 3106 (PS2, 360, PS3, Wii) Deus Ex: 317 (PC, PS2) > Deus Ex - 50.76% (9.26% - miss,1 for 2) Batman: Arkham Asylum: 1738 Psychonauts: 349 (PC, Xbox, PS2) > Batman: Arkham Asylum - 72.5% (83.28% - 2/3) Team Fortress 2: 1102 (PC only) Fable: 1286 (original + Lost Chapters) > Team Fortress 2 - 50.03% (46.15% - 2/4) Uncharted 2: 1250 Legend of Dragoon: 901 > Uncharted 2: Among Thieves - 57.4% (58.11% - 3/5) Sonic Adventure 2: 1400 (original + Battle) Street Fighter IV: 2331 (PC, 360, PS3, original + Super) > Street Fighter IV - 50.75% (62.48% - 4/6) Halo 3: 5726 Super Mario Sunshine: 1254 > Halo 3 - 52.53% (82.03% - 5/7) Halo: Combat Evolved: 1549 (PC, Xbox) Ninja Gaiden: 514 (original + Black) > Halo: Combat Evolved - 64.45% (75.08% - 6/8) So two misses - Fable against TF2 (a minor miss) and Rock Band 2 against Deus Ex (a very big miss). A correlation of 0.6365 between proportion of ratings and poll percentage - not bad. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 10:10:41 PM | message detail |
No one's done that yet. Feel free to go ahead! --- DFF |
charmander6000 | Posted 11/6/2010 10:15:04 PM | message detail |
Yikes. What happened that day? 129k votes happened, 32k more votes than any match before it and 22k more votes than any match in the entire contest. Cloud out-scored every winner except Mario and Link against Scorpion in round 4. Also about half way through the third round the contest stopped being GameFAQs' contest and more of an internet contest. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 31/36 Today's Matches: SW: KotOR & FE |
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/6/2010 10:18:42 PM | message detail |
No, I meant yesterday. You'd think San Andreas would be a vote draw. --- DFF |
charmander6000 | Posted 11/6/2010 10:21:08 PM | message detail |
I would blame the banner that pushes the poll away, but it has been there for many other matches. Did something happen in North America or something? --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 31/36 Today's Matches: SW: KotOR & FE |
Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/6/2010 10:21:15 PM | message detail |
Apparently an ad blocked the poll... and the whole internet has not installed ABP yet. --- I predict and analyse the Game of the Decade contest here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56817040 |
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/6/2010 10:26:41 PM | message detail |
That ****ing Goldeneye poll always pushes you away from the poll when I'm at school(which of course doesn't have ABP). --- The 3DS will be $200 or I'm closing my account - Ngamer64 |
Draco1214 | Posted 11/6/2010 10:29:10 PM | message detail |
I
haven't gotten a match wrong since Morrowind and I plan on banking this
huge streak at Persona 3, but choosing where to bank after that is
tough. I have little confidence in Dead Rising, FF12, Skies of Arcadia
(I can't be the only one who's really frightened of Baldur's Gate II),
and even World of Warcraft. I can risk Dead Rising, but I don't know after that match at all. --- Completely decimated by Dr. Football in the Guru Contest! |
charmander6000 | Posted 11/6/2010 10:31:40 PM | message detail |
I would risk it, you probably already have a lot of points I don't see the point of making a few hundred here and there. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 31/36 Today's Matches: SW: KotOR & FE |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/6/2010 10:36:15 PM | message detail |
Oh,
I see that creativename added my continent poll trend chart page to his
site. Well, thanks for that. I don't think the trend chart is 100%
accurate, but it is fairly accurate for the most part. In that poll,
97.97% of the votes were honest, leaving the remaining 2.03% who either
lied or voted incorrectly by accident. It's a slight improvement over
the 2009 continent poll where 97.81% of the votes were honest. The 2009 continent poll was a weekday poll during the school year, which would mean normal ASV trends. I didn't track poll updates on the 2009 poll, but I wish I did. Hourly trends in that poll would be slightly different than the one that happened on a weekend. Guess I'll be stuck waiting a while for another continent poll to fall on a school day. As far as the poll updater goes, I don't remember it having any problems the last time there was a 13 hour match, which was back in 2008. The poll updater did break when we had a 13 hour match back in 2007. Still, I will make sure that I watch the poll updater for any signs of problems and if necessary, manually trigger updates if the updater is not retrieving updates automatically. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ! |
params7 | Posted 11/6/2010 10:38:53 PM | message detail |
I
am very disturbed by this poll. Honestly didn't expect DMC doing this
low. I blame new meth Dante reveal..but I thought that would help the
original Dante. --- http://i35.tinypic.com/2qd27na.png youtube.com/watch?v=cw-TsPpZk8Q (Warhawk montage) |
XxSoulxX | Posted 11/6/2010 10:52:18 PM | message detail |
DMC
is incredibly weak, as is just about every game that's similar to it.
God of War is the only decently strong DMC-like action game that I can
think of. --- Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename |
creativename | Posted 11/6/2010 10:56:08 PM | message detail |
From: Team Rocket Elite | #1852 Nope, that crap always confused me. I'll try to be around at noon I guess to check. From: charmander6000 | #1859 I'm not saying it's "spin", I'm sure you have no bias, I'm saying it's just not true. And minor characters are more variable. Popular characters less so. Despite that, Squall and Sephiroth of all people (again - at worst the #2A character on the whole site) boosted big time. It makes much more sense to compare Cloud with Sephiroth/Squall than try to work through whoever you're using (Alucard?). It cannot be reasonably argued that Sephiroth boosted more than Cloud, that would make no logical sense whatsoever based on their roles in the games, or the actual results of their matches. From: red sox 777 | #1857 I'm not going to say 54% is impossible like 57% is. However it seems like a big stretch to me. Cloud got 64713 votes, Mario got 64990. That match had 22156 votes more than Mario/Crono I, which is probably the best comparison - Cloud has always been more of a vote draw than Crono so let's saw there was an "unnatural" 20K votes. At 110K "natural" votes, at 54% it would've been 59400-50600 for Cloud. That means Mario "fluked" an extra 9077 net votes - which would mean he received 73+% of the extra votes! That's just a ridiculously disproportionate number. Again, 54% is not completely unreasonable, but a very big stretch IMO. I think Cloud with 52% "naturally" is pretty reasonable. BTW, for that Cloud with 58% figure to be right, Mario would've had to get 95.37% of the extra votes. So yeah...no :) From: charmander6000 | #1904 There was certainly something flukey about that match - whether it be Mario cheating (the GOAT cheater remember), PGC, Sunshine, whatever, something was off. But enough to make Cloud stronger than Sephiroth? When the very next year he won with 51.61% despite pretty much for sure boosting more than Sephiroth? At best you can set Cloud 2K2=Sephiroth 2K2. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/6/2010 10:57:22 PM | message detail |
Nope, that crap always confused me. I'll try to be around at noon I guess to check. It'll happen in 3 minutes, though. --- Epona > any Western character in CB9! http://i.neoseeker.com/ca/fallout_new_vegas_conceptart_7XvFK.jpg |
XxSoulxX | Posted 11/6/2010 11:01:08 PM | message detail |
There
was certainly something flukey about that match - whether it be Mario
cheating (the GOAT cheater remember), PGC, Sunshine, whatever,
something was off. But enough to make Cloud stronger than Sephiroth?
When the very next year he won with 51.61% despite pretty much for sure
boosting more than Sephiroth? At best you can set Cloud 2K2=Sephiroth
2K2. Another case of blindly staring at stats and not using your head. No way would Sephiroth be stronger than Cloud back then unless you think Magus could have made it to the finals against Link. --- "Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename |
NoDicePwn | Posted 11/6/2010 11:02:17 PM | message detail |
And yeah, it seems updater is broken. No 1:01 update --- Epona > any Western character in CB9! http://i.neoseeker.com/ca/fallout_new_vegas_conceptart_7XvFK.jpg |
creativename | Posted 11/6/2010 11:02:38 PM | message detail |
From: NoDicePwn | #1955 Well as I said...that crap always confuses me! --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/6/2010 11:03:03 PM | message detail |
The
updater is working, but now there's a 1:01 update right after the 1:00
update. LOL at a -2573 vote update for KOTOR on the 1:01 update. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ! |
red sox 777 | Posted 11/6/2010 11:03:13 PM | message detail |
Another
case of blindly staring at stats and not using your head. No way would
Sephiroth be stronger than Cloud back then unless you think Magus could
have made it to the finals against Link. cn's argument was quite reasonable and didn't involve any stats except a direct matchup. I think what you mean is "This is obvious because I say so," even though I agree that Cloud was always stronger than Sephiroth. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
