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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 973

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charmander6000 | Posted 12/12/2010 9:24:38 PM | message detail
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict
1. Kingdom Hearts II vs. Kingdom Hearts (R3) – 11.70%
2. Paper Mario vs. World of Warcraft (R2) – 13.73%
3. Golden Sun vs. GTA: San Andreas (R2) – 16.05%
4. Pokemon RSE vs. Grand Theft Auto IV (R1) – 26.23%
5. Persona 4 vs. Dead Rising (R2) – 27.47%
6. Kingdom Hearts II vs. Bioshock (R2) – 29.25%
7. Paper Mario: TTYD vs. Gears of War (R1) – 29.33%
8. Portal vs. Mass Effect (R3) – 30.36%
9. LoZ: Twilight Princess vs. Super Mario Galaxy (R3) – 30.47%
10. Final Fantasy IX vs. Star Wars: KotOR (R3) – 30.68%

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 156/172 Today's Matches: MGS3 & MGS4
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 12/12/2010 9:28:07 PM | message detail
KHII > TP will be so unpredicted.

I'm excited.

it's totally happening probably maybe
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/12/2010 9:33:33 PM | message detail
It could, it isn't like TP crushed it the first time they met.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 156/172 Today's Matches: MGS3 & MGS4
Big Bob | Posted 12/12/2010 9:36:41 PM | message detail
I don't know how to do the math, so somebody figure this out for me:

If Chrono Cross = Legend of Dragoon, and Assassin's Creed II = Uncharted 2, what are the comparable strengths of Majora's Mask and Wind Waker?
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/12/2010 9:46:23 PM | message detail
Majora's Mask wins over Wind Waker 50.68%-49.32%

Personally I would take CC and AC2 over LoD and U2 respectively though.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 156/172 Today's Matches: MGS3 & MGS4
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/12/2010 9:50:35 PM | message detail
I chose to approach your request in a different manner. I decided to set Majora's Mask and Wind Waker equal to each other and calculate what AC2 gets on Chrono Cross. If Majora's Mask = Wind Waker, then AC2 should get 57.98% on CC. If you think AC2 can break that number on CC, then Wind Waker would win against Majora's Mask.
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 12/12/2010 9:57:25 PM | message detail
Kingdom Hearts II has a great chance. The day vote should be favorable as well. From their match last contest: 52.67% for TP the first 12 hours, 52.01% for 24 hours, 51.3% for the final 12. It was a pretty fair match as well, since I'd consider RE4 and HL2 neutral in regards to those two.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/12/2010 9:59:06 PM | message detail
If Majora beats GSC and Brawl stomps Melee, I have a good shot at winning a prize.

I'm so excited!
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EvilNcr | Posted 12/12/2010 10:07:02 PM | message detail
Before reading any comment from the last 2 hours :

Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater 68.58%
Paper Mario 31.42%

I love you so much Europe.
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MadGamer_11 | Posted 12/12/2010 10:21:55 PM | message detail
This is by far the best I have ever done in a contest (currently have 156). I have a good shot at ending on the leaderboard (which is my dream) and who knows maybe getting a prize! Got Brawl>Melee, TP winning its division as well as Pokemon going to semis. Should be interesting. It is funny too because the match that has been the most unpredictable and the one second round match I got wrong was between my favorite series KH/KH2. Shame if I had picked KH2 I would be on the leaderboard obviously. Went with the original though because well... I liked it more..
EvilNcr | Posted 12/12/2010 10:24:00 PM | message detail
Well, GSC to the semis is a pipe dream. Probably gonna take a miracle for it to go through MM.
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*sigh* Lemme get my TI-83+ ...WTF!? Piece of trash!!*throws it away*~Rodri316 during his proof of why -4^2=16
Erosennin444 | Posted 12/12/2010 10:28:49 PM | message detail
MGS3 VS PAPER MARIO??!?!?! im so sad i cant vote. both so good...
Glenn_and_Toad | Posted 12/12/2010 11:03:09 PM | message detail
Well, GSC to the semis is a pipe dream. Probably gonna take a miracle for it to go through MM.

I absolutely don't get why people think this.

Have people forgotten about these two matches?

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Pokemon_Red/Blue/Yellow_vs_Majora's_Mask_vs_Perfect_Dark_vs_Banjo-Kazooie_2009

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Metal_Gear_Solid_vs_Pokemon_Red/Blue/Yellow_vs_Majora's_Mask_vs_Pokemon_Gold/Silver_2009

Before you LOL 4ways me, consider the following:
-In that first poll, pokemon RBY got over 50% on MM and two other games at the same time.
-But that's RBY you say, clearly less well received than GSC. Which I actually believe is kind of ridiculous, Pokemon has some of the most loyal and unwavering fanbases in the history of fanbases (see: RSE > GTA) and besides, RBY and GSC were very similar, much more similar than OoT and MM anyways.
-Since these matches, GSC got one of the most well-received and technically stellar remakes ever. Said remake helped Charizard thrash bowser easily before putting up 46% on Mario. MM has done absolutely nothing since the year 2000.
-Think Majora's Mask looked good beating Wii Sports and Chrono Cross? It's Chrono Cross-not shabby, but not a powerhouse. Besides, there's no reason to think that Majora's Mask has somehow gotten better since Spring 09.
-There's this theory floating around that Majora's Mask is going to somehow benefit from a lack of OoT in the bracket. That makes sense as long as you consider that average voters are going to be thinking 'huh, I wonder who else is in this bracket, I'm going to base my vote off that' rather than 'you lost all your rupees when you went back in time, that was different and annoying.'

G/S/C wins with at least 53%.

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AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/12/2010 11:17:38 PM | message detail
I am becoming physically ill about the Pokemon/Zelda match.

Pokemon got it.
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Glenn_and_Toad | Posted 12/12/2010 11:22:46 PM | message detail
also, I didn't mean to personally attack anyone, I don't think those people are stupid or anything, but I just don't see how you can call G/S/C > MM a pipe dream when it has all that going for it.
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on 4ways: right now they have inherent flaws, but could be easily fixed by implementing approval voting! ~ToadYoshi 1. SoAL 2. MKW/64 3. FE7 4. TF2 5. FFCC
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/12/2010 11:25:33 PM | message detail
And honestly if GSC beats MM it isn't losing to WW.

And from what we've seen from FFX at this point, do you think GSC benefitting from what will certainly be a bandwagon at that point is really out of the realm of possibility?
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EvilNcr | Posted 12/12/2010 11:41:12 PM | message detail
Chrono Cross vs Fire Emblem, who ya got? I've got Chrono Cross in a fairly secure victory (55+).

And yes, I'm aware of RBY being a massive beast in 2009. Because it's the original Pokemon. But I'm afraid I'll have to say LOL 4 ways despite you clearly not agreeing to that. You're completely ignoring the MGS part of this poll. I'm pretty confident most of the MGS votes would go to MM and that RBY gets more support than GSC anyway.

And the very argument that Pokemon has one of the most loyal fanbase is exactly why it's doomed to lose. Loyal fanbases make games look better in 4-ways Such was the fate of WoW for example. For me, the biggest knock on Pokemon is Galaxy scoring a 60-40 on RBE. And then seeing it lose 62-38 to TP. The only Zelda that has shown some weakness so far is Wind Waker. MM and TP, we can expect them to be somewhat close in strength. Unless GSC can actually compete at 45-47% or so with TP who easily dispatched Galaxy 62-38 who in turn dispatched with ease RSE, it's not going to win.

TP would have likely scored between 75-80% on RSE (xstats would suggest 90% but I somehow doubt that). Think about that for a moment. Is GSC so strong it can overcome those odds? No is my answer.

I've got MM with close to 60% and I'm not retracting that prediction.
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*sigh* Lemme get my TI-83+ ...WTF!? Piece of trash!!*throws it away*~Rodri316 during his proof of why -4^2=16
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/12/2010 11:44:21 PM | message detail
Ncr, you're aware of the term "SFF" right?
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creativename | Posted 12/12/2010 11:45:57 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #203
Just because we don't see it all at once doesn't mean they aren't there. The anti-voters will be spread out through the day just like the ones that come on the site after the power hour.


You said nothing that I didn't already say.

Anyone outside of this board is not going to rally for RE4 if it comes out to a 53% start against FFX in a night match. They don't know trends and assume RE4 is going to win a close, but with a sizable gap. Any rallying that will come will come once RE4 is at 50% since then the average voter will see that it's anyone's game.

If RE4 was going to win the match it will have to start at around 50% so rallying will start then. The game will have more hours, a weaker FFX comeback (since FFX isn't recovering from a bad power hour since there wasn't much of one) and more people to rally from since North America will be awake then.


You are seriously failing to realize how rallying works. If RE4 is only at 50% in the Power Hour, nobody is going to bother rallying it, because they will completely give up on it having any chance. It's the "smart" voters that are the ones who drive bandwagoning, and they will be very aware that if RE4 is only at 50% in the Power Hour, it is completely hopeless.
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EvilNcr | Posted 12/12/2010 11:49:00 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #368
Ncr, you're aware of the term "SFF" right?


Yes and it's why Pokemon will look bad.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/13/2010 12:01:26 AM | message detail
I was considering Majora the slight favorite, but that picture is far too kind to Pokemon. I'm taking it to win.
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/13/2010 12:08:12 AM | message detail

From: EvilNcr | #370
Yes and it's why Pokemon will look bad.


SFF means that Pokemon doesn't have to make up your perceived "90%" difference, dude.
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nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 12/13/2010 12:12:22 AM | message detail
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Metal_Gear_Solid_vs_Pokemon_Red/Blue/Yellow_vs_Majora's_Mask_vs_Pokemon_Gold/Silver_2009

Seriously, how many people do you guys think RBY > MM > GSC applies to? Assuming MGS splits down the middle, Majora needs 44.95% to break even.

If you can convince yourself that Heart Gold/Soul Silver hasn't boosted GSC at all and that 45% of people who voted RBY in that match up prefer Majora to GSC, then go ahead and take it. But I think you're all crazy. Unless MGS splits unevenly for some reason you can magic up.
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I just don't get why you're even contemplating it.
nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 12/13/2010 12:13:53 AM | message detail
From: EvilNcr | #367
TP would have likely scored between 75-80% on RSE (xstats would suggest 90% but I somehow doubt that). Think about that for a moment. Is GSC so strong it can overcome those odds? No is my answer.

GSC >>> RSE
MM <<< TP

That match is about as useful as linking to OoT/RBY as proof of why TP will win.Nice, but completely useless.
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Not worth diddly.
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/13/2010 12:15:41 AM | message detail
The main case you can make for MM is the drone/proxy type mentality, but this contest hasn't had much of that, SMS's absolute floundering the key example I can show you of that. Smaller examples are things like Deus Ex and Morrowind.

This contest, the voters have shown that they will vote quite specifically and won't just vote because a game has Zelda tagged onto it.

G/S/C is gonna ****ing roll, baby. Get ready for it.
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creativename | Posted 12/13/2010 12:15:58 AM | message detail
Nice performance by MGS3 here, should end about 58-58.5%, which would probably be very slightly above expectations.

If you say that in a 24 hour match PM2 would have gotten like 44.25% on Oblivion and that PM would get 42.5% here over 24 hours, then MGS3 gets 52% on Oblivion. Although PM is probably slightly stronger than PM2.

From: PartOfYourWorld | #1851
I was considering Majora the slight favorite, but that picture is far too kind to Pokemon. I'm taking it to win.


I think one of them might end up winning by a slim but comfortable margin, but the match is very difficult to call in terms of a winner.

For once a night match is likely in Pokemon's favor, and also no Link in the match pic can't help Zelda. Those may not be huge factors but since I don't see any other real advantages for either game, I'd have to side with GSC. I also think GSC is a bit more likely to pull off a comfortable 52.5+% win than MM is.
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EvilNcr | Posted 12/13/2010 12:16:05 AM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #372
SFF means that Pokemon doesn't have to make up your perceived "90%" difference, dude.


Of course, that's why I said it would likely be in the mid-to-high 70s. Did you miss that part?
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*sigh* Lemme get my TI-83+ ...WTF!? Piece of trash!!*throws it away*~Rodri316 during his proof of why -4^2=16
transience | Posted 12/13/2010 12:17:47 AM | message detail
where the heck did you get TP getting 75-80% RSE? it has absolutely nothing to do with GSC/Majora, I'm just curious.
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xyzzy
EvilNcr | Posted 12/13/2010 12:18:59 AM | message detail
Well, xstats would show TP scoring 90% on RSE through Galaxy. I simply notched it in the 70s because we have Brawl on record scoring a 70+ on another Pokemon game.
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*sigh* Lemme get my TI-83+ ...WTF!? Piece of trash!!*throws it away*~Rodri316 during his proof of why -4^2=16
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/13/2010 12:19:15 AM | message detail
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Metal_Gear_Solid_vs_Pokemon_Red/Blue/Yellow_vs_Majora%27s_Mask_vs_Pokemon_Gold/Silver_2009

Oh my god.

I don't know why, but for some reason I thought that Majora's Mask was a lot closer to RBY in this poll.

The combined Pokemon votes there absolutely MASSACRED the stand-alone Zelda entry.

So confident now. My confidence was wavering a little bit, but not anymore.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 12/13/2010 12:19:58 AM | message detail
According to x-stats, TP gets just under 70% on Emerald and that's not taking into account any possible SFF between Galaxy/TP or Galaxy/Emerald. Taking into account TP > Majora's Mask and Crystal > Emerald, your scenario is a bit exaggerated.

Granted, I think it's wrong to try to take that route to figure out the match in the first place. Taking 2 different games from the same series and their matches to try to figure out a match is pretty silly
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/13/2010 12:20:11 AM | message detail
Ncr I think you're putting all Pokemon games as equals or near equals, which isn't the case.

I would argue that after HG/SS, GSC should be a lot closer to RBY than it is to the other entrants in the series.
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Greyfeld | Posted 12/13/2010 12:23:32 AM | message detail
GSC was always closer to RBY than gen 3 or 4. The strength gap looks something like this:

RBY>>GSC>>>>DPP>RSE
transience | Posted 12/13/2010 12:24:30 AM | message detail
I don't think you understand how to do x-stats. it's not even close to 75-80%.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/13/2010 12:26:56 AM | message detail
I try to stay away from strict x-stats anyways.

The ONLY things that the x-stats helped me with in this contest were Persona 4 and Tales of Symphonia.

And even then it was just showing that they had legitimate strength.
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EvilNcr | Posted 12/13/2010 12:34:29 AM | message detail
Fine fine, if you don't want me to equate Pokemons and TP/MM, I can go with another angle. GSC has shown it it would score around 70% on Phoenix Wright through Mario Kart Wii. The other Phoenix Wright game (sequel) only got 24.81% on FFIX. That would make it GSC likely to be weaker than FFIX. Would you take FFIX to beat Majora's Mask?

From: ExThaNemesis | #382
Ncr I think you're putting all Pokemon games as equals or near equals, which isn't the case.


And for the record, I do think if you've played one Pokemon, you've played them all. Roster change + minor updates. I'm only guessing for TP-MM. I can't see them being that much different.
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transience | Posted 12/13/2010 12:36:39 AM | message detail
results have proven that they're very different. I could make the same argument about Zelda but it wouldn't hold any weight because we've seen the drastic differences. you're also making logical leaps like PW1 = PW3.

I could see FF9 beating Majora's Mask, yeah. not sure about that one but I wouldn't put it out of the question.
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EvilNcr | Posted 12/13/2010 12:37:53 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
EvilNcr | Posted 12/13/2010 12:38:27 AM | message detail
Of course PW=PW3, the games are practically the same game with different cases. Plays the very same.
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*sigh* Lemme get my TI-83+ ...WTF!? Piece of trash!!*throws it away*~Rodri316 during his proof of why -4^2=16
nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 12/13/2010 12:39:37 AM | message detail
From: EvilNcr | #386
And for the record, I do think if you've played one Pokemon, you've played them all. Roster change + minor updates. I'm only guessing for TP-MM. I can't see them being that much different.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3462
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3498

Zelda =! Zelda
Pokémon != Pokémon
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EvilNcr | Posted 12/13/2010 12:58:03 AM | message detail
ngirl, I already acknowledged that RBY is an exception about 15-20 posts up. And I talked about TP-MM only, I never mentioned OoT at all. In fact, I also said WW is the weakest of the bracket and results have shown it.
Besides, look down.
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See, I can do crappy subliminal mesages posing as a sig too. Your last message was as useless as it can go.
Greyfeld | Posted 12/13/2010 1:02:39 AM | message detail

From: EvilNcr | #389
Of course PW=PW3, the games are practically the same game with different cases. Plays the very same.


That doesn't mean that they are the same strength. People have different preferences, and certain cases are more memorable than others. I'm not going to pretend to know which one is stronger, but I think it's premature to just make an assumption like that.
EvilNcr | Posted 12/13/2010 1:03:09 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
EvilNcr | Posted 12/13/2010 1:03:22 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
EvilNcr | Posted 12/13/2010 1:04:21 AM | message detail
Oh and yes. One last thing ngirl. If you want to troll me, at least have the balls to be upfront. Oh wait...
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/13/2010 1:04:39 AM | message detail
It's not subliminal, it's her gimmick.

The quality is up for debate of course, but it's definitely not subliminal!
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/13/2010 1:05:54 AM | message detail
Ncr chill out. No one is trolling you, we're just trying to give you evidence that points to the contrary of what you're arguing. Ngirl was a little abrasive about it, but not trying purposely to wind you up or anything.
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"I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer
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EvilNcr | Posted 12/13/2010 1:07:38 AM | message detail
Like hell I'm not being trolled. If she wanted to play that mocking game, so will I. I'm not gonna be a wuss and back out just because she's a moderator.
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*sigh* Lemme get my TI-83+ ...WTF!? Piece of trash!!*throws it away*~Rodri316 during his proof of why -4^2=16
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/13/2010 1:09:24 AM | message detail
I'm not telling you to back out because she's a mod, I'm telling you to back out because there's nothing to fight about.

When I, of all people, am trying to be the voice of reason in a situation, you should probably be reasonable. >.>
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"I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer
See You Space Cowboy
EvilNcr | Posted 12/13/2010 1:10:19 AM | message detail
And Ex, my issue is not her posts about the match, it's her messages under the sig that she hides there to troll. Go read again what she said.
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*sigh* Lemme get my TI-83+ ...WTF!? Piece of trash!!*throws it away*~Rodri316 during his proof of why -4^2=16