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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 982

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Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/18/2010 7:27:46 PM | message detail
Preemptive congratulations to the GameFAQs Game of the Decade Bracket Winner, Black Turtle!

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/18/2010 7:45:47 PM | message detail
Whoo, only 5 days left!

FFX still got dis
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-Tofa7- | Posted 12/18/2010 7:52:17 PM | message detail
nominate Dark Link >_>
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SuperAngelo128 | Posted 12/18/2010 7:55:33 PM | message detail
I can't wait to see LeonhartFour throw a fit when Final Fantasy X doesn't win
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no heroickrauss bullying topic i see. feels wrong, board viewing experience feels lesser
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/18/2010 8:00:05 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/18/2010 8:00:14 PM | message detail

From: SuperAngelo128 | #004
I can't wait to see LeonhartFour throw a fit when Final Fantasy X doesn't win


Why would I do that? I very, very rarely "throw a fit" over match results, even when my favorites lose.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/18/2010 8:06:21 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #006
Why would I do that? I very, very rarely "throw a fit" over match results, even when my favorites lose.


Yay for levelheadedness for video game popularity contests!

^5
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"if only there were some way I could have sex" - Smartmuffin
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/18/2010 8:07:52 PM | message detail
Huzzah!

I am not opposed to throwing a fit over human stupidity and jerkfacedness though, so don't get the two confused!
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/18/2010 8:10:58 PM | message detail
Digging them new match pics
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"if only there were some way I could have sex" - Smartmuffin
Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/18/2010 8:32:26 PM | message detail
I'm looking forward to yet another KP/ExTha meltdown.

It's great watching people with bad taste in games freak out over a popularity contest!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/18/2010 9:03:34 PM | message detail
So uh, no one is credited for that pic.

No one submitted anything, did they?

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DFF
Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/18/2010 9:03:44 PM | message detail
Surprised Prime's been holding off Fallout for this long!
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SabrielAbhorsen | Posted 12/18/2010 9:03:57 PM | message detail
Nice pic
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/18/2010 9:04:00 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #011
So uh, no one is credited for that pic.

No one submitted anything, did they?


*tumbleweed blows by*
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EvilNcr | Posted 12/18/2010 9:04:24 PM | message detail
There's no surprise there, Prime has a very strong board vote.
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Solid_Mike86 | Posted 12/18/2010 9:04:32 PM | message detail
Come on Prime!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/18/2010 9:04:33 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #011
So uh, no one is credited for that pic.

No one submitted anything, did they?


Ganon submitted one that looked pretty gross. Fallout 3 looks like a gross game I hope it loses.
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/18/2010 9:04:39 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/18/2010 9:04:56 PM | message detail
This might be closer than I thought. Still feel very comfortable with Fallout winning though.
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 12/18/2010 9:05:07 PM | message detail
Looking pretty good for Fallout 3 here. I doubt Prime could even hold this kind of lead through to the end of the power hour.
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Dr Football and Snake have won this round, but Sephiroth will rise again!
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/18/2010 9:06:04 PM | message detail
Maybe I should start making pics again. You guys are lazy! Why, in my day, we did 15 freeform pics a day, submitted half of them, had another 1/3 accepted, AND WE LIKED IT

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DFF
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/18/2010 9:06:13 PM | message detail
A lot of people submitted good stuff. Who knows what happened
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"Trying to act like you know somebody you've never interacted with makes you look like a total idiot." -Leonhart4
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/18/2010 9:06:25 PM | message detail
Also, just realized my friend's prize bracket is #10 now. I'll bet he's wishing he listened to me and had taken MM > MGS3 instead of MGS3 > MM
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/18/2010 9:06:32 PM | message detail
If Prime gets close to winning this we can come away saying that HL2 might actually be the strongest of the trio (it would've definitely won a night match here).
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/18/2010 9:06:40 PM | message detail
The rest of the pictures are now up.
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/18/2010 9:07:26 PM | message detail
MP leads by 23 at the freeze. When does Fallout take the lead? I'm going with the 30 minute mark.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/18/2010 9:08:05 PM | message detail
The pics are in the database, but there's still only one pic on the front page (I think, I kept refreshing).

And I can't find any TP/Brawl pics.

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DFF
Solid_Mike86 | Posted 12/18/2010 9:08:53 PM | message detail
That pic with Ridley is ****ing awesome! Also, Phendrana Drifts Sighting!
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SnoicFactor | Posted 12/18/2010 9:09:38 PM | message detail
fallout will win, MP always plummets after board vote.. several % wise
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/18/2010 9:10:03 PM | message detail
Liberty mothaf***in' PRIME vs Meta-Ridley is a cool pic, too bad it aint on the front page >_>
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"if only there were some way I could have sex" - Smartmuffin
charmander6000 | Posted 12/18/2010 9:10:21 PM | message detail
Only a slight cut there.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 204/256 Today's Matches: HL2 & SSBB
red sox 777 | Posted 12/18/2010 9:11:08 PM | message detail
Fallout with a small cut. It's going to win comfortably once we get out of the power hour.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/18/2010 9:11:09 PM | message detail
Did Allen just put up more pictures after the match started, or am I still drunk?
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Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 12/18/2010 9:12:11 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
229----1------------0.00
228----0------------0.00
227----1------------100.00
226----2------------50.00
225----1------------0.00
224----2------------50.00
223----1------------100.00
222----0------------0.00
221----1------------100.00
220----1------------100.00
219----0------------0.00
218----3------------33.33
217----1------------100.00
216----3------------33.33
215----6------------33.33
214----12----------25.00
213----9------------33.33
212----10----------40.00
211----14----------42.86
210----17----------11.76
209----23----------34.78
208----21----------47.62
207----26----------30.77
206----31----------32.26
205----25----------44.00
204----32----------37.50
203----48----------29.17
202----44----------47.73
201----40----------35.00
200----56----------33.93
199----57----------49.12
198----45----------60.00
197----133--------77.44
196----76----------67.11
195----66----------54.55
194----51----------64.71
193----63----------49.21
192----63----------55.56
191----67----------56.72
190----103--------39.81
189----84----------58.33
188----89----------68.54
187----89----------62.92
186----73----------57.53
185----85----------61.18
184----73----------60.27
183----98----------62.24
182----94----------65.96
181----94----------63.83
180----103--------66.02
179----120--------60.83
178----125--------57.60
177----111--------65.77
176----107--------58.88
175----116--------64.66
174----139--------60.43
173----130--------59.23
172----131--------58.02
171----135--------58.52
170----136--------56.62
169----163--------57.67
168----139--------56.83
167----144--------59.72
166----153--------52.94
165----177--------57.63
164----173--------49.71
163----155--------50.97
162----193--------46.63
161----174--------52.30
160----183--------48.63
159----191--------52.36
158----177--------48.02
157----179--------49.72
156----201--------47.76
155----197--------54.82
154----207--------47.34
153----208--------46.15
152----203--------43.84
151----222--------52.70
150----218--------46.79
149----236--------40.68
148----242--------47.11
147----233--------43.78
146----244--------41.39
145----248--------43.55
144----261--------41.38
143----296--------42.57
142----252--------40.08
141----252--------41.27
140----268--------40.30
139----277--------39.35
138----267--------38.20
137----252--------31.35
136----269--------39.03
135----301--------38.21
134----300--------38.33
133----257--------36.96
132----301--------34.88
131----288--------37.15
130----273--------30.04
129----315--------33.65
128----320--------29.69
127----293--------33.11
126----319--------30.72
125----326--------26.69
124----352--------29.55
123----317--------28.71
122----318--------27.36
121----322--------31.68
120----374--------27.01
119----400--------28.75
118----349--------27.51
117----376--------26.33
116----393--------28.24
115----394--------22.34
114----374--------25.67
113----360--------25.83
112----384--------25.52
111----385--------22.08
110----370--------28.65
109----399--------25.31
108----364--------22.25
107----344--------21.51
106----345--------23.77
105----398--------18.09
104----392--------17.09
103----387--------18.09
102----346--------20.81
101----352--------16.76
100----371--------15.36
Articuno2001 | Posted 12/18/2010 9:12:12 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #033
Did Allen just put up more pictures after the match started, or am I still drunk?


Yes, but they don't seem to be rotating.
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2010 Game of the Decade Contest - 197 points - Today: Fallout 3 / Super Smash Bros. Brawl
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Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 12/18/2010 9:12:13 PM | message detail
99------372--------13.98
98------375--------13.07
97------327--------15.29
96------327--------11.93
95------323--------16.41
94------323--------14.86
93------314--------11.15
92------304--------9.87
91------321--------10.59
90------307--------9.77
89------282--------12.06
88------274--------13.50
87------244--------9.02
86------280--------8.93
85------217--------11.98
84------215--------10.23
83------221--------10.86
82------236--------7.20
81------243--------6.17
80------233--------6.87
79------188--------9.57
78------175--------9.14
77------164--------6.71
76------154--------9.74
75------146--------6.85
74------142--------5.63
73------127--------5.51
72------119--------3.36
71------110--------6.36
70------113--------5.31
69------104--------4.81
68------89----------1.12
67------72----------8.33
66------100--------6.00
65------67----------4.48
64------48----------2.08
63------50----------2.00

61------35----------5.71
60------33----------3.03

56------24----------4.17
55------21----------4.76

53------14----------7.14

49------13----------7.69

47------10----------10.00
46------7------------14.29

42------9------------11.11
41------3------------33.33

39------7------------14.29

20------2------------50.00

13------3------------33.33

7--------10----------10.00


Max Score: 248
Omitted scores got it wrong.

The last -19 bracket goes down. Top score is now 21 points off perfect. The top tiers got hammered again in this match. 71 out of the Top 108 got the match wrong. Prediction percentage once again increases as you go down the tiers go up as high as the high 60s. Overall prediction percentage for this match isn't too bad either.

23 people fell off the Top 50. Enohp, PeaceOut64, gitanil, SimSmash312, Tequilla_Gundam, KingLionel, Djungelurban, Demon_HunterX, Naveplayer, Awesome_X, metaIslugg, Ludwig_Von_6, Ngamer64, MingIes, wizwinkleman, UCanCountOnMe, Giggsalot, fruitman456, Blairville, VDontheLadyYo, HeroicMathmagus, Glucose7 and WarriorRiffs did not have Majora's Mask winning the match.

8 people got it wrong and lived. Former first place bospsychopaat, former third place Prometheus89, kneazlegirl, TheOlympicHero, SunnyX, jimbobbo, MerchantTorneko and Swordsman12 also did not have Majora's Mask winning the match.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/18/2010 9:12:16 PM | message detail
Oh sweet, the picture I made with Phazon Samus and Ridley background and Vault Boy + Behemoth is on the home page.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/18/2010 9:13:13 PM | message detail
The only pic I can see on the homepage is the first one.

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DFF
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/18/2010 9:13:13 PM | message detail
Hmm

I swear I just saw it on the home page, but you're right, now they're back to just #1.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/18/2010 9:13:46 PM | message detail

From: Solid_Mike86 | #028
That pic with Ridley is ****ing awesome! Also, Phendrana Drifts Sighting!


F***. Yes. ^5

And belated congrats on calling Prime to do well.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/18/2010 9:13:47 PM | message detail
Did Allen just put up more pictures after the match started, or am I still drunk?

He did.

http://image.com.com/gamefaqs/images/gotd/gotd-121-1.jpg
http://image.com.com/gamefaqs/images/gotd/gotd-121-2.jpg
http://image.com.com/gamefaqs/images/gotd/gotd-121-3.jpg
http://image.com.com/gamefaqs/images/gotd/gotd-121-4.jpg
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/18/2010 9:14:22 PM | message detail
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Closest Matches
1. Team Fortress 2 – 50.03% vs. Fable – 49.97% (R1) – 0.06%
2. Shadow of the Colossus – 50.04% vs. Metal Gear Solid 2 – 49.96% (R2) – 0.08%
3. Persona 4 – 50.27% vs. Dead Rising – 49.73% (R2) – 0.54%
4. Shadow of the Colossus – 50.43% vs. Metal Gear Solid 4 – 49.57% (R3) – 0.86%
5. Morrowind – 50.45% vs. Warcraft II – 49.55% (R1) – 0.90%
6. Metal Gear Solid 3 – 50.62% vs. Shadow of the Colossus – 49.38% (R4) – 1.24%
7. Metroid Prime – 50.73% vs. Half-Life 2 – 49.27% (R4) – 1.46%
8. Street Fighter IV – 50.75% vs. Sonic Adventure 2 – 49.25% (R1) – 1.50%
9. Deus Ex – 50.76% vs. Rock Band 2 – 49.24% (R1) – 1.52%
10. Pokemon RSE – 50.77% vs. Grand Theft Auto IV – 49.23% (R1) – 1.54%

Top 10 Smallest Night Vote Gaps
1. Metal Gear Solid 3 – 19586 vs. Shadow of the Colossus – 19107 (R4) – 479

2. Dead Rising – 18334 vs. The World Ends With You – 17680 (R1) – 654
3. Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 22684 vs. Super Smash Bros. Melee – 21729 (R4) – 955
4. God of War – 20659 vs. Tales of Symphonia – 19489 (R2) – 1170
5. Valkyria Chronicles – 16384 vs. Disgaea – 14876 (R1) – 1508
6. Persona 3 – 17585 vs. Civilization IV – 16009 (R1) – 1576
7. Skies of Arcadia – 17782 vs. Baldur’s Gate II – 16155 (R1) – 1627
8. Tales of Symphonia – 20805 vs. Resident Evil 5 – 19077 (R1) – 1728
9. Halo 3 – 22476 vs. Super Mario Sunshine – 20315 (R1) – 2161
10. Mega Man 9 – 20447 vs. Demon’s Souls – 18134 (R1) – 2313

Top 10 Most Impressive Night Losers
1. Super Smash Bros. Melee (R4) – 21729
2. Super Mario Sunshine (R1) – 20315
3. Tales of Symphonia (R2) – 19489
4. Shadow of the Colossus (R4) – 19107
5. Resident Evil 5 (R1) – 19077
6. Bioshock (R2) – 18918
7. Pokemon GSC (R3) – 18418
8. Diablo II (R2) – 18212
9. Demon’s Souls (R1) – 18134
10. Devil May Cry (R1) – 18107

Top 10 Least Impressive Night Winners
1. Valkyria Chronicles (R1) – 16384
2. Persona 3 (R1) – 17585
3. Skies of Arcadia (R1) – 17782
4. Mario Kart Wii (R1) – 18287
5. Dead Rising (R1) – 18334
6. Metal Gear Solid 3 (R4) – 19586
7. Uncharted 2 (R2) – 19680
8. Pokemon DPP (R1) – 19880
9. Mega Man 9 (R1) – 20447
10. God of War (R2) – 20659

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict
1. Kingdom Hearts II vs. Kingdom Hearts (R3) – 11.70%
2. Metal Gear Solid 3 vs. Shadow of the Colossus (R4) – 13.13%
3. Paper Mario vs. World of Warcraft (R2) – 13.73%
4. Shadow of the Colossus vs. Metal Gear Solid 4 (R3) – 15.19%
5. Golden Sun vs. GTA: San Andreas (R2) – 16.05%
6. LoZ: Twilight Princess vs. Kingdom Hearts II (R4) – 17.67%
7. Metroid Prime vs. Half-Life 2 (R4) – 20.90%
8. Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs. Super Smash Bros. Melee (R4) – 23.72%
9. Pokemon RSE vs. Grand Theft Auto IV (R1) – 26.23%
10. LoZ: Wind Waker vs. Oblivion (R3) – 26.27%

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 204/256 Today's Matches: HL2 & SSBB
abdou | Posted 12/18/2010 9:15:00 PM | message detail
more pics showing up on the homepage now
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/18/2010 9:15:03 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #038
Hmm

I swear I just saw it on the home page, but you're right, now they're back to just #1.


I saw it too. It looks like the system is kinda working its way through the pics. First it was nothing, then it was just #1, then its mostly #1 and sometimes #2, etc. Perhaps we'll get them all once by the end of the hour.
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Solid_Mike86 | Posted 12/18/2010 9:15:10 PM | message detail
The pics are nowing showing on the front page
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/18/2010 9:15:26 PM | message detail
Heh, Prime wants to make this as respectable as possible.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/18/2010 9:17:15 PM | message detail
Do you guys think Prime would've been the favorite to reach the Final Four if last year never happened?
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Next Games Up - Resident Evil 4, Okami, StarCraft
charmander6000 | Posted 12/18/2010 9:18:37 PM | message detail
Do you guys think Prime would've been the favorite to reach the Final Four if last year never happened?

You mean had MP defeated GTA: VC and perform respectably in the second round?

It might.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 204/256 Today's Matches: HL2 & SSBB
charmander6000 | Posted 12/18/2010 9:20:33 PM | message detail
MP went up.

Too bad the night won't be kind to it.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 204/256 Today's Matches: HL2 & SSBB
Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/18/2010 9:20:35 PM | message detail
What a stalemate.

Too bad Prime's only putting off the inevitable.
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