Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1054

#451 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 6/12/2013 3:04:51 PM | message detail
Division 6 is a nightmare. Correctly predicting Magus and Blue's strength might decide the whole championship.
---
Hey, its that SuperNiceDog! Congrats to the Guru 2011 winner
#452 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/12/2013 3:06:51 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Regarding the Guru contest, we can't fully rely on the "Share This Bracket" links. The brackets shown are based on the url you use not the bracket that was submitted.


If the URL for your bracket changes when you make a change to your bracket, there could be a rule in the Guru that if you make a change to your bracket, you will have to post the new URL for your bracket.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#453 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/12/2013 3:15:46 PM | message detail | (edited)
Confirmed

The link to view your bracket will change if you make any changes to your bracket. So if you post a link to your bracket in the Guru topic, then you decide you want to make a change to your bracket, you will have to post an updated link to your bracket. You can check out this page to find a link to let other people view your bracket:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/cb9_mybracket

An alternative idea is to create a rule in the Guru that says you should only post the link to your bracket after contest entries have closed. That would solve the idea of users posting a link to an outdated version of their bracket.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#454 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 6/12/2013 3:19:09 PM | message detail
I think we should just handle Guru like we did in previous years. The only change would be you post the share link when submitting your bracket to the contest and you need to post a new link if you make a change. It'll be easier to use a script to enter brackets from the share link instead of people typing them out. Late entries should be handled the same way as previous years since the share link isn't actual evidence of your bracket.
---
Pokemon VGC2013 OR Regional - 12th place
Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place
#455 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/12/2013 3:26:05 PM | message detail | (edited)
Here is my step by step plan if I was running the Guru:

1. Host a sign-up topic for the Guru. No one is allowed to post their bracket URL in this topic because your bracket will not be entered into the Guru site if you post your bracket URL in the topic.

2. After contest entries have closed, post a new topic where you can post the link to your bracket URL. This is also the topic where you have to post your tiebreaker, since the tiebreaker is not listed on the bracket URL page.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#456 | Achromatic | Posted 6/12/2013 3:23:41 PM | message detail
From: Team Rocket Elite | #454
I think we should just handle Guru like we did in previous years. The only change would be you post the share link when submitting your bracket to the contest and you need to post a new link if you make a change. It'll be easier to use a script to enter brackets from the share link instead of people typing them out. Late entries should be handled the same way as previous years since the share link isn't actual evidence of your bracket.


It's not? O_o
---
Death is not to be feared, but avoidance never hurt anyone.
#457 | Naomi_Diamond | Posted 6/12/2013 3:23:55 PM | message detail
Does Blue beat Fox/Wolf?
---
ziggie ziggie wop wop
#458 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/12/2013 3:26:52 PM | message detail
It's not? O_o

The link doesn't say whose bracket it belongs to.
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Congrats to SuperNiceDog for winning the guru contest.
#459 | The Mana Sword | Posted 6/12/2013 3:29:31 PM | message detail
just submitted my bracket guys, everyone else can just pack it in
---
i'll do rydia -Dante
#460 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 6/12/2013 3:29:33 PM | message detail
12 hour matches?
---
This is a fantasy based on reality.
~DChemist~
#461 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 6/12/2013 3:29:53 PM | message detail
That, and there's no telling whether it is the newest version of the bracket.
---
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#462 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 6/12/2013 3:31:22 PM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
From: Team Rocket Elite | #454
I think we should just handle Guru like we did in previous years. The only change would be you post the share link when submitting your bracket to the contest and you need to post a new link if you make a change. It'll be easier to use a script to enter brackets from the share link instead of people typing them out. Late entries should be handled the same way as previous years since the share link isn't actual evidence of your bracket.


It's not? O_o


For one it doesn't show your username anywhere. You can use anyone's share link and claim it's your own. Taking it a step further, you can manipulate the url to make any bracket you want even after the bracket deadline.

This probably isn't a big issue since the highest scoring guru bracket will likely be on the leaderboard at some point so a fake bracket would likely get caught anyways.
---
Pokemon VGC2013 OR Regional - 12th place
Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place
#463 | Samurai7 | Posted 6/12/2013 3:33:53 PM | message detail
As long as they post their bracket before the first match, why does it matter if its the same one they entered with?
---
Conformity and rebellion...both ways are simple-minded--they are only for people who cannot cope with contradiction and ambiguity.
#464 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/12/2013 3:36:34 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
For one it doesn't show your username anywhere. You can use anyone's share link and claim it's your own. Taking it a step further, you can manipulate the url to make any bracket you want even after the bracket deadline.


You really think someone is going to bother doing something like that? I don't see the big deal here.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#465 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 6/12/2013 3:38:22 PM | message detail
No one is seriously taking Auron to beat Samus, right? Even with her history with Tifa?
#466 | Safer_777 | Posted 6/12/2013 3:40:49 PM | message detail
So the most favorites are Link,Snake,Sephiroth,Sonic,Cloud,Chrono,Mario,Megaman and Samus eh?These are the Noble 9 I believe right?Also Sephiroth more favorite than Cloud?Huh?
---
GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#467 | tgs2 | Posted 6/12/2013 3:40:58 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
No one is seriously taking Auron to beat Samus, right? Even with her history with Tifa?


Samus would need an Other M ZSS pic, and for Tifa to hurt Samus worse than Auron.
#468 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 6/12/2013 4:18:37 PM | message detail | (edited)
Calling it now, Squirtle will give Cloud a scare and either Pikachu or Blue will win the very next match.

POKEFEAR
---
This is a fantasy based on reality.
~DChemist~
#469 | -Zelmor- | Posted 6/12/2013 4:19:58 PM | message detail
Squirtle giving Cloud a scare? Is there a need to overrate Pokemon this much? Also, Dante will be there instead of Squirtle.
---
The official ruler of the Langrisser board. Just a heads up, don't ever bet your account on soccer matches, "sob sob".
#470 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/12/2013 4:22:02 PM | message detail | (edited)
...OK, so I was working out some data for a couple matches, and I came across an insane surprise. You know how the Pit/Wrex/Cecil match is pretty debatable? Well, on a lark, I started thinking 'hmm, lots of people are picking Pit, but he's mostly a Smash leech with a new game to his credit, he probably can't win this...', and that got me thinking about other Brawl leeches. One of them stood out a lot: Ridley, who managed to keep Cloud really close to 30%, no mean feat for most characters. Instinctually, I thought that picking a guy who barely lots to Knuckles over Ridley would be a gimme...but according to the XStats calculator, Ridley is projected to win that match. He's projected to more or less tie freakin' Knuckles, for crying out loud! Now I know a bunch of that has to be anti-FF7 votes, but still...If you set Pit=Ridley, who do you take in a match against Cecil? Never thought the math would say something like that...
#471 | Justin_Crossing | Posted 6/12/2013 4:21:26 PM | message detail
ridley would beat pit pretty badly in a 1v1 if you ask me

i don't think their strength is at all comparable
---
JustinCrossing (10:01:24 PM): omg why are muskrats so cute
Luster Reloaded (10:03:31 PM): I don't know why.
#472 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 6/12/2013 4:21:50 PM | message detail
I hope Dante gets a DmC pic, just for laughs and angry Dante fans.
---
This is a fantasy based on reality.
~DChemist~
#473 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/12/2013 4:22:51 PM | message detail
Justin_Crossing posted...
ridley would beat pit pretty badly in a 1v1 if you ask me

i don't think their strength is at all comparable


Yes, but would you take Ridley to give Knuckles the scare of his life! I know I wouldn't have ever thought of it before checking the XStats!
#474 | Justin_Crossing | Posted 6/12/2013 4:23:25 PM | message detail
i dunno i think ridley could keep up with knuckles - i don't know about win but i think he'd have an outside shot

don't trust x-stats
---
JustinCrossing (10:01:24 PM): omg why are muskrats so cute
Luster Reloaded (10:03:31 PM): I don't know why.
#475 | Denzokuken | Posted 6/12/2013 4:30:22 PM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
I hope Dante gets a DmC pic, just for laughs and angry Dante fans.


He had better not get it in the second round, or my bracket won't be happy (I think Squirtle has a good chance of winning that).
---
Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner!
#476 | tgs2 | Posted 6/12/2013 4:44:31 PM | message detail
Quick question: Will the Guru implement the expert Challenge or go plain vanilla for this contest?

On another note, Crono's division is a lock for Sora to me. Anything other than winning that division will be one of the biggest flops of the contest as I think Crono has fallen off to the point that a lot of near-elites can beat him with a final percentage of 52/53 which is where I would put Sora after Kingdom Hearts 3 got announced. Pikachu is kind of overrated thanks to that performance against Solid ****. Even if that is his strength, I see Pokemon having a bit of a lull this contest.

Not that it matters since Fox/Blue will just drag him down.
#477 | abdou | Posted 6/12/2013 4:48:38 PM | message detail
would just the announcement of KH3 boost Sora from losing 54/45 to Bowser to near elite ?
---
...
#478 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/12/2013 4:58:29 PM | message detail
If Crono can get by Pikachu (which is still possible with Magus in the poll) I would make him the favourite over Sora.
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/66439939
#479 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/12/2013 5:05:19 PM | message detail
The Contest begins on Wednesday, June 12, 2013 and will run through the final match-up of the Tournament scheduled for September 12, 2013 (the "Contest Period"). Participants may create their brackets starting on June 12, 2013 and ending at 7:59:59 PM PDT on July 8, 2013 (the "Entry Period").

The above text is from the rules page. Based on that, I think we are getting 12-hour matches for the first 2 rounds and 24-hour matches for the rest of the contest after round 2.`
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#480 | superange128 | Posted 6/12/2013 5:06:50 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
The Contest begins on Wednesday, June 12, 2013 and will run through the final match-up of the Tournament scheduled for September 12, 2013 (the "Contest Period"). Participants may create their brackets starting on June 12, 2013 and ending at 7:59:59 PM PDT on July 8, 2013 (the "Entry Period").

The above text is from the rules page. Based on that, I think we are getting 12-hour matches for the first 2 rounds and 24-hour matches for the rest of the contest after round 2.`


does it match up with your calculations where you pretty much figured it would be like that?
---
Want any VNs pre-patched? PM me. List of VNs can be found by clicking on my username.
#481 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/12/2013 5:09:47 PM | message detail
Even before the contest entry page went up, I pretty much assumed we would have 12-hour matches for the first 2 rounds and 24-hour matches after round 2. I already sent in a feedback ticket to Bacon asking him to confirm if I am correct.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#482 | OlDirtyNumbers | Posted 6/12/2013 6:53:19 PM | message detail
so what's consensus on lucina vs. dracula

on one hand, ike is weaker than alucard despite having smash behind him, so lucina would probably get wrecked pretty hard by alucard. the issue here is projecting dracula's strength -- you'd think he'd be near alucard, but i dunno! my gut said lucina at first but i'm probably going to switch.
---
I keep coming back here where everything... slipped
Ahhahhahaa
#483 | Ex-Kefiroth | Posted 6/12/2013 7:03:08 PM | message detail
#484 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/12/2013 7:05:56 PM | message detail
OlDirtyNumbers posted...
so what's consensus on lucina vs. dracula

on one hand, ike is weaker than alucard despite having smash behind him, so lucina would probably get wrecked pretty hard by alucard. the issue here is projecting dracula's strength -- you'd think he'd be near alucard, but i dunno! my gut said lucina at first but i'm probably going to switch.


Alucard/Drac beat Frog/Magus by only a little less than Alucard beat Magus 1v1, if it helps any, and it's hard to argue the latter pair wouldn't boost more from the Rivalry Rumble than AluDrac.
#485 | OlDirtyNumbers | Posted 6/12/2013 7:14:38 PM | message detail
i'm not too keen on using any damn thing from the rivalry rumble to predict this contest. i'm not gonna predict link to 60-40 cloud, that's for sure! that whole contest was just weird.
---
I keep coming back here where everything... slipped
Ahhahhahaa
#486 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/12/2013 7:19:08 PM | message detail
OlDirtyNumbers posted...
i'm not too keen on using any damn thing from the rivalry rumble to predict this contest. i'm not gonna predict link to 60-40 cloud, that's for sure! that whole contest was just weird.


Totally, but I think it's fair to say that Dracula won't be a jobber, and that's all he needs to do to beat a freakin' nonsmash Fire Emblem character.
#487 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/12/2013 7:22:26 PM | message detail
From: KanzarisKelshen | #470
...OK, so I was working out some data for a couple matches, and I came across an insane surprise. You know how the Pit/Wrex/Cecil match is pretty debatable? Well, on a lark, I started thinking 'hmm, lots of people are picking Pit, but he's mostly a Smash leech with a new game to his credit, he probably can't win this...', and that got me thinking about other Brawl leeches. One of them stood out a lot: Ridley, who managed to keep Cloud really close to 30%, no mean feat for most characters. Instinctually, I thought that picking a guy who barely lots to Knuckles over Ridley would be a gimme...but according to the XStats calculator, Ridley is projected to win that match. He's projected to more or less tie freakin' Knuckles, for crying out loud! Now I know a bunch of that has to be anti-FF7 votes, but still...If you set Pit=Ridley, who do you take in a match against Cecil? Never thought the math would say something like that...


Take matches against Cloud or Sephiroth with a grain of salt. Those two get a TON of anti-votes.

It's why, for example, Phoenix Wright and Marth are not as close as those 2010 stats suggest. Marth has an inflated number due to Sephiroth.
---
Dr_Football Factor'd
#488 | OlDirtyNumbers | Posted 6/12/2013 7:25:49 PM | message detail
i'd normally say fair enough, but awakening is a step above older fire emblem games in popularity for sure. i'd take lucina to cream ike sans smash. not that i think lucina or chrom or tharja are going to be godslayers or anything, but i think they'll be more popular than you'd expect. maybe i'm wrong.

still gonna be switching to dracula, but i'm not supremely confident in it!
---
I keep coming back here where everything... slipped
Ahhahhahaa
#489 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 6/12/2013 7:30:27 PM | message detail
Kirby/Terra/Peach

What would your Oracle prediction for this one be?
---
This is a fantasy based on reality.
~DChemist~
#490 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 6/12/2013 7:30:46 PM | message detail
Also, have we seen Terra post-Dissidia?
---
This is a fantasy based on reality.
~DChemist~
#491 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/12/2013 7:35:25 PM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
Also, have we seen Terra post-Dissidia?


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3784
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3821

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4523
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4548

Take the Rivalry Rumble matches with a grain of salt, though.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#492 | foxhead84 | Posted 6/12/2013 7:36:30 PM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
Also, have we seen Terra post-Dissidia?


http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/(10)Terra_Branford_vs_(2)Squall_Leonhart_2010
---
Congratulation to SuperNiceDog. Guru Champ and Rivalry Rumble Master
#493 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/12/2013 7:52:10 PM | message detail
Don't pick Fire Emblem characters who haven't been in Brawl to win matches.

Also, the Expert Challenge is an excellent idea. A great way to actually make people care about more than just the 1st place finisher.
---
"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#494 | pjbasis | Posted 6/12/2013 8:06:27 PM | message detail
Wait July 8th? Seriously that's a long ass time
---
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#495 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/12/2013 8:18:19 PM | message detail
50000 GET

On the 11:18 PM update, we broke 50000 votes on this poll. This is only the third poll this year to break 50000 votes, though this poll is benefiting from increased traffic from E3.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#496 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 6/12/2013 8:32:18 PM | message detail
Umm... Is Spyro gonna win a match? I guess Reyn might be popular but I don't really know how to judge that.
#497 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/12/2013 8:33:32 PM | message detail
Pick Clementine.
---
"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#498 | jacko_vdz | Posted 6/12/2013 8:34:14 PM | message detail
Reyn will be a good deal weaker than Shulk. I love Xenoblade but I can't see Reyn winning a match.
#499 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/12/2013 8:35:26 PM | message detail
ya go my Squall
---
"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#500 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 6/12/2013 8:35:44 PM | message detail
Really Leon, you'd go with Clementine? She feels like the weakest of 3 weak characters there.