Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1059

#1 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 7/10/2013 9:32:12 PM | message detail
TJF is looking to be a thing of the past!

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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~Masa
#2 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/10/2013 9:32:45 PM | message detail
save_us.2003
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#3 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/10/2013 9:32:58 PM | message detail
Did Juliet stall or cut that last update?
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"This is a fantasy based on reality."
DChemist
#4 | Greyfeld | Posted 7/10/2013 9:33:14 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
save_us.2003


Tina needs to freaking roll over and die for me.
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PSN - Aevio
"I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa
#5 | Greyfeld | Posted 7/10/2013 9:33:50 PM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
Did Juliet stall or cut that last update?


No, but Tina's lead only increased by 4. Doesn't mean much on a single update though.
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PSN - Aevio
"I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa
#6 | anondum | Posted 7/10/2013 9:33:52 PM | message detail
tharja would probably beat chrom. there's no way he is going to beat big boss, lucina is more likely to win her match.
#7 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/10/2013 9:34:01 PM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
Did Juliet stall or cut that last update?


Tina gained 4.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#8 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/10/2013 9:34:16 PM | message detail
I expect Tharja, Chrom and Lucina to be around the same level.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
http://www.last.fm/user/crazydom
#9 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/10/2013 9:34:51 PM | message detail
Tharja with 40% makes me feel good about Reyn > Clementine > Spyro, alittle bit.
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"This is a fantasy based on reality."
DChemist
#10 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/10/2013 9:36:23 PM | message detail | (edited)
Tharja JRPG result made me want to pick Yuri > Face
Tina result made me want to pick Face > Yuri

what do I do??? what will you do???
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Congratulation to SuperNiceDog. Guru Champ and Rivalry Rumble Master
#11 | abdou | Posted 7/10/2013 9:35:36 PM | message detail
maybe tiny tina will have a terrible night vote or something
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...
#12 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/10/2013 9:35:47 PM | message detail
30 vote barrier breached. Game over.
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"This is a fantasy based on reality."
DChemist
#13 | Sorozone | Posted 7/10/2013 9:36:13 PM | message detail
I don't see Mcshooty being the same strength as Tina.

Great name, not the same level of relevance.
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http://i.imgur.com/32RNLnc.gif
#14 | pjbasis | Posted 7/10/2013 9:36:35 PM | message detail
I think picking Clementine to win was a mistake.

Not sure how it relates to this match exactly. Maybe it's just my judgment
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#15 | LOLContests | Posted 7/10/2013 9:36:56 PM | message detail
Nah, The Boss is stronger than all of these scrubs by a decent bit.

In all fairness, Chrom is probably stronger than all of them by a decent bit as well.
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"What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!"
This is Yesmar.
#16 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/10/2013 9:37:34 PM | message detail
Sorozone posted...
I don't see Mcshooty being the same strength as Tina.

Great name, not the same level of relevance.


So Tina > Face... really???
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Congratulation to SuperNiceDog. Guru Champ and Rivalry Rumble Master
#17 | Masato_Tanaka (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/10/2013 9:37:54 PM | message detail
Yeah IDK what Clementine has anything to do with this match?

Walking Dead characters are still totally untested, so I'd say their still somewhat unpredictable.
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http://i.imgur.com/GhorUQg.jpg
~Masa
#18 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 7/10/2013 9:38:06 PM | message detail
Tharja's doing phenomenal in Britain, and Tina's bombing there for what it's worth (nothing).
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RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :(
#19 | Masato_Tanaka (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/10/2013 9:38:39 PM | message detail
LOLContests posted...
Nah, The Boss is stronger than all of these scrubs by a decent bit.

In all fairness, Chrom is probably stronger than all of them by a decent bit as well.


if Chrom gets a random Smash Bros announcement, I could buy it. Until then, I think Boss can squeak by. There's a lot of MGS fans on this site, especially of 3 I feel like.
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http://i.imgur.com/GhorUQg.jpg
~Masa
#20 | Masato_Tanaka (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/10/2013 9:39:11 PM | message detail
This is the first match I've been legitimately interested in. How bout you guys?
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http://i.imgur.com/GhorUQg.jpg
~Masa
#21 | pyresword | Posted 7/10/2013 9:39:21 PM | message detail
WarThaNemesis2 posted...
Tharja's doing phenomenal in Britain, and Tina's bombing there for what it's worth (nothing).


Noticed that to. This is the one hope for my Expert Challenge I think
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#22 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/10/2013 9:39:55 PM | message detail | (edited)
Masato_Tanaka posted...
This is the first match I've been legitimately interested in. How bout you guys?


Yup, next one will be Draven vs. Jak, but that might be a dud.
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"This is a fantasy based on reality."
DChemist
#23 | anondum | Posted 7/10/2013 9:40:38 PM | message detail
draven is definitely a weird one, but he has by far the most popular meme lol has ever produced.
#24 | Masato_Tanaka (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/10/2013 9:40:43 PM | message detail
Huh, that was an interesting update. This could be a barn burner to come folks!
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http://i.imgur.com/GhorUQg.jpg
~Masa
#25 | Articuno2001 | Posted 7/10/2013 9:40:49 PM | message detail
1 vote cut by Juliet.
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Character Battle IX: 4/4 points, Next matches: Tharja, Aerith
http://backloggery.com/articuno2001/sig.gif
#26 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/10/2013 9:41:19 PM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
30 vote barrier breached. Game over.


not yet... just went down to 29... (i know you we're kidding)
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Congratulation to SuperNiceDog. Guru Champ and Rivalry Rumble Master
#27 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/10/2013 9:41:25 PM | message detail
COMEBACK!
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"This is a fantasy based on reality."
DChemist
#28 | LOLContests | Posted 7/10/2013 9:41:51 PM | message detail
Tina's doing really well in the Midwest/Mountain Region, so maybe Juliet can pick up some steam as they go to bed.
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"What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!"
This is Yesmar.
#29 | pyresword | Posted 7/10/2013 9:41:53 PM | message detail
The battle for 2nd place in Link/Isaac/Tingle was decent for about an hour.
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#30 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/10/2013 9:41:54 PM | message detail
Oh, and this exact logic is why I picked Catherine to win her match. "Gamer nerds" cared WAY WAY WAY MORE about Catherine than TWEWY.

I see what you mean with siding with JRPG characters. However, I'm not sure Catherine > TWEWY is necessarily certain.
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Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place
Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place
#31 | Articuno2001 | Posted 7/10/2013 9:42:14 PM | message detail
Catherine isn't even a JRPG!
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Character Battle IX: 4/4 points, Next matches: Tharja, Aerith
http://backloggery.com/articuno2001/sig.gif
#32 | abdou | Posted 7/10/2013 9:42:48 PM | message detail
Tina seems to be winning USA easily but losing everywhere else, maybe this is not over just yet
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#33 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/10/2013 9:43:31 PM | message detail
comeback initiated
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#34 | Sorozone | Posted 7/10/2013 9:43:40 PM | message detail
For what it's worth Juliet seems to have a pretty strong on the East coast at this point. Maybe she will get a good morning vote.
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http://i.imgur.com/32RNLnc.gif
#35 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/10/2013 9:44:30 PM | message detail
abdou posted...
Tina seems to be winning USA easily but losing everywhere else, maybe this is not over just yet


btw what is the percentage of USA's vote
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Congratulation to SuperNiceDog. Guru Champ and Rivalry Rumble Master
#36 | superange128 | Posted 7/10/2013 9:44:40 PM | message detail
So much for Middle Pic Factor
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#37 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/10/2013 9:44:42 PM | message detail
Neku is in KH3D. He got this.

And I've played Catherine and Far Cry 3.
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"This is a fantasy based on reality."
DChemist
#38 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/10/2013 9:45:20 PM | message detail
It's a shame we can't view results for an entire continent overall. That means we can't view results for Europe as a whole. We can only look at the results for various European countries, many of which have like 1 or 2 votes right now.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#39 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/10/2013 9:47:04 PM | message detail | (edited)
That was a good gain by Tina, up +12 (41).
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"This is a fantasy based on reality."
DChemist
#40 | Masato_Tanaka (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/10/2013 9:46:22 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#41 | LOLContests | Posted 7/10/2013 9:47:09 PM | message detail
Juliet's finishing in first in a fair number of US states on the East Coast, including New York!

Tina should probably hold in Massachusetts though. Multiplayer games tend to be pretty popular there.
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"What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!"
This is Yesmar.
#42 | StarStormScream | Posted 7/10/2013 9:48:11 PM | message detail
Tharja with only under 7% in West Virginia, haha.
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Now Awaiting:
Tales of Xillia, Squigly patch for Skullgirls
#43 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/10/2013 9:48:44 PM | message detail
Tiny Tina has 0 votes in Maine.

lol
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Demyx is better than Axel.
http://www.last.fm/user/crazydom
#44 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/10/2013 9:50:45 PM | message detail
28 vote gain for Tina. Game over.
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"This is a fantasy based on reality."
DChemist
#45 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/10/2013 9:51:21 PM | message detail
Almost cut Tharja there, too.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#46 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/10/2013 9:52:11 PM | message detail
I am so happy coming home that Tharja is in the lead. This was probably the one match in R1 that I was most worried about.
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In Oz; cruel is the usual punishment.
#47 | LOLContests | Posted 7/10/2013 9:54:13 PM | message detail
Cool! I just realized that if you click on the countries that used to have individual poll results it gives you detailed region by region maps for them as well, like the state maps for the U.S.!
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"What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!"
This is Yesmar.
#48 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/10/2013 9:54:26 PM | message detail
Also, don't know if anyone got this one yet but there was a 82.56% correct pick percentage for the previous match.
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In Oz; cruel is the usual punishment.
#49 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/10/2013 9:55:31 PM | message detail
Monster 23 vote cut on Tharja.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#50 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/10/2013 9:56:18 PM | message detail
Tina going for first
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 4/4 Today's Picks: Juliet and Aerith