Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1120

#451 | Lopen | Posted 8/20/2013 4:49:41 AM | message detail
Why not random generate all I.P.'s needed, store in database. When contest time comes, use I.P, vote, use I.P, vote, use I.P, vote...

Yeah, and that's why I said about 50 posts ago that I doubt this is the actual algorithm being used. This is mostly a metaphorical here. I'm just trying to explain why an algorithm could slow down over time.
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#452 | Calintares | Posted 8/20/2013 4:50:24 AM | message detail
I find it interresting that MMX is actually getting a very respectable number of votes in this match.

Also, it's funny that the Link/Draven match is going to be held on the 10-year aniversary of Link/Cloud.
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#453 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/20/2013 4:51:34 AM | message detail
What is the most popular reddit page that has a character from the contest in aside from Draven?
I think the Pokemon page is pretty popular
I would check it if I wasn't on mobile screw mobile
#454 | Lopen | Posted 8/20/2013 4:54:40 AM | message detail | (edited)
And honestly the biggest red flag to me, and probably the main reason why I still don't entirely buy this (aside from disproportionate dropoff for X/Ryu) is that last round to this round is so different.

Not even just in number of votes, I'm talking distribution. Last round Europe basically carried Draven, and the excuse given was "oh well Reddit is big in Europe so"

This round, Draven is dominating everywhere, not getting some disproportionate Europe boost. Why wasn't it more balanced like this round last round? You wouldn't expect the rally to gain disproportionately in the US due to planning. You'd expect the rally to gain everywhere. It's not as if the rally was posted somewhere else this time. It just got seen by more people apparently.
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#455 | Achromatic | Posted 8/20/2013 4:54:22 AM | message detail
Singerton posted...
Achromatic posted...
That is not what Occam's Razor means.



Very, very, very technically, no it's not what it means, but you are splitting the smallest semantic hair I've ever seen anyone split.


I am splitting it because even if you want to say that is what it means this situation is a poor use of it!
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#456 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/20/2013 4:57:06 AM | message detail
Also the last rally lost steam when Draven was leading by enough
This is not alowing down so much
#457 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/20/2013 4:58:44 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
This round, Draven is dominating everywhere, not getting some disproportionate Europe boost. Why wasn't it more balanced like this round last round? You wouldn't expect the rally to gain disproportionately in the US due to planning. You'd expect the rally to gain everywhere. It's not as if the rally was posted somewhere else this time. It just got seen by more people apparently.


Draven's rally in round 1 didn't really pick up until after 3:00 AM, during a time when the US was going to sleep and Europe was starting to wake up. A good bulk of the rally power happened between 3:00 AM and 7:00 AM in the round 1 match.
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#458 | Lopen | Posted 8/20/2013 5:06:54 AM | message detail
It still doesn't really add up, though. Otherwise Draven would've fallen in the US overnight for this match because "everyone's asleep." If he fell it wasn't by much at all.

Like the majority of the votes in a given poll on this site without rallying are in the US, even at 3AM. Smaller majority buy still a majority I wouldn't expect Reddit to be vastly different than that. Its European userbase is pretty overstated.

Basically I buy that it'd be lower but not that much lower. Draven had like 60% in Europe and 30% in the US last match. This match it's like 60% and 70%.
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#459 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/20/2013 5:21:17 AM | message detail
I'm not really okay with this outside help thing, and I definitely think something's fishy.

But damned if they don't have Turtle pegged perfectly.
http://www.reddit.com/r/leagueoflegends/comments/1kpnus/we_have_to_vote_for_draven_voting_will_begin_10/cbrdzrr
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#460 | Mega Mana | Posted 8/20/2013 5:25:43 AM | message detail
That Black Turtle guy is really standing up for maintaining integrity in a contest that a Tetris piece won once. - Fancy Skunk

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#461 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/20/2013 5:30:01 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
It still doesn't really add up, though. Otherwise Draven would've fallen in the US overnight for this match because "everyone's asleep." If he fell it wasn't by much at all.

Like the majority of the votes in a given poll on this site without rallying are in the US, even at 3AM. Smaller majority buy still a majority I wouldn't expect Reddit to be vastly different than that. Its European userbase is pretty overstated.

Basically I buy that it'd be lower but not that much lower. Draven had like 60% in Europe and 30% in the US last match. This match it's like 60% and 70%.


As per usual, Wyoming is still a bastion of integrity. Draven in third place there, though it's pretty close to a three-way split.
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#462 | lightsout06 | Posted 8/20/2013 5:42:37 AM | message detail
where in the hell did all of these votes come from?
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#463 | Calintares | Posted 8/20/2013 5:45:00 AM | message detail
can I see the list of most impressive losers?
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#464 | SliceSabre | Posted 8/20/2013 5:45:38 AM | message detail
So I get up this morning ready to push X into the next round and what do I find
45K VOTES

WWWWWWHHHHHHHAAAAATTTTTT

GOD DAMNIT DRAVEN

TO THE TRASH MY BRACKET GOES
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#465 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 8/20/2013 5:49:20 AM | message detail
*Wakes up and checks Gamefaqs* *spits coffee everywhere*

Holy Hell what is going on!? I didn't even look at Dravens percentage at first. I just saw that MMX was beating Ryu and was pretty relieved, but then I realized that the percentages seemed really low...then I looked over at Draven ...

Man, I'm not really sure who to vote for next round. Shepard is easily my favorite character in the match, but I might need to hop on the Link train.
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#466 | SubDeity | Posted 8/20/2013 5:49:35 AM | message detail
Gotta say, I like this rally more after seeing them trash Black Turtle in the thread.
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#467 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/20/2013 5:53:06 AM | message detail | (edited)
Okay, these guys are pretty funny.

Wtf is a Tharja and how did it beat Tiny Tina?

Edit: I saw Tharja, I retract my statement now. I apologize.
- caboosemyhero

Who the hell is this Tharja and why is he/she getting so many votes?

Google Image search

Oh. Oh... I see. Brb getting a 3DS.
- OhZordan
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#468 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/20/2013 5:50:55 AM | message detail
Finally caught up, yikes. Assuming this is all rallying...

On one hand, this sucks mainly because the rest of the rounds are going to be rather predictable, plus this crazy-ass performance is going to overshadow s*** like Crono/Pikachu. Plus this sets precedent that reddit rallying can dominate, so we might see people rally Pikachu on the Pokemon subreddit, and suddenly a close match might end up with Pikachu getting 66% of the match and see him propelled much farther than expected (which would be great for my already-ruined bracket, granted). Characters like Snake, Cloud, and Mario aren't going to benefit from rallies the way LoL characters or even Pokemon can, no matter what inane bulls*** Kanz spouts.

On the other hand, I'd be a hypocrite if I spoke down this match considering how much I've praised s*** like L-Block's run and how much I defend joke characters in general. Except Draven's no joke, and he has a huge section of the internet backing him here. This is incredibly impressive, and if there genuinely is no vote stuffing, then he more than earned what's going to be one of, if not the most impressive victory in contest history. So kudos for that, and a pre-emptive congrats to him winning the contest due to his huge rallying potential. He's earned it. Of course, this throws a wrench into future contests, but hey.

Also, Kanz is a terrible user and the board would be a better place without this delusional twit s***ting it up.
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#469 | Zabie_W | Posted 8/20/2013 5:51:08 AM | message detail
So, I woke up, voted for Ryu thinking "I wonder if he's winning against X" and nope, he wasn,t but there was something odd, the percentages, then I check Draven and "Holy hell 46k votes?!"

After that I came here to see if there where stuffing topics but no. Apearently it's just rally power

I was expecting a bigger Rally for Draven on the second round because first round was so sudden, Draven had a match early in the tournament and rally organizers may had not enough time to get ready, this time however, they had the entire first round to get ready, so a bigger rally was to be expected. However, this is beyond ridiculous. I'm willing to bet that some stuffing might have been envolved, but not enough to make Draven lose this match and that the rally by itself grants Draven the win in this match.
#470 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/20/2013 5:51:44 AM | message detail
Also, definitely still voting Shepard next round.
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#471 | SliceSabre | Posted 8/20/2013 5:54:52 AM | message detail
Is anyone under the impression this rally Draven could be used to threaten the dominance that is Link?

I know speaking ill against Link to tantamount to treason, but it is possible for him to lose.
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#472 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/20/2013 5:55:51 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
Finally caught up, yikes. Assuming this is all rallying...

On one hand, this sucks mainly because the rest of the rounds are going to be rather predictable, plus this crazy-ass performance is going to overshadow s*** like Crono/Pikachu. Plus this sets precedent that reddit rallying can dominate, so we might see people rally Pikachu on the Pokemon subreddit, and suddenly a close match might end up with Pikachu getting 66% of the match and see him propelled much farther than expected (which would be great for my already-ruined bracket, granted). Characters like Snake, Cloud, and Mario aren't going to benefit from rallies the way LoL characters or even Pokemon can, no matter what inane bulls*** Kanz spouts.

On the other hand, I'd be a hypocrite if I spoke down this match considering how much I've praised s*** like L-Block's run and how much I defend joke characters in general. Except Draven's no joke, and he has a huge section of the internet backing him here. This is incredibly impressive, and if there genuinely is no vote stuffing, then he more than earned what's going to be one of, if not the most impressive victory in contest history. So kudos for that, and a pre-emptive congrats to him winning the contest due to his huge rallying potential. He's earned it. Of course, this throws a wrench into future contests, but hey.


And this is a bad thing...why? If we could get a counterrally going with Pokémon, we could...

Could...

Oh, F***, Pikachu and Charizard would be SFFing each other against Draven in the finals! He'd still win!

save_us.mewtwo
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#473 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/20/2013 5:56:40 AM | message detail
The rally is starting to lose strength now. The last 4 updates all had less than 300 votes for Draven, which is the first time Draven had less than 300 votes in an update since 12:20 AM.

With 37 updates left in this match, we would have to average 337 votes per update to break 80000 votes on this match. That should be possible considering no update in this match has gotten less than 400 votes yet. We're still managing about 400-500 votes per update right now.
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#474 | Zabie_W | Posted 8/20/2013 5:57:12 AM | message detail
SliceSabre posted...
Is anyone under the impression this rally Draven could be used to threaten the dominance that is Link?

I know speaking ill against Link to tantamount to treason, but it is possible for him to lose.


If Draven keeps this rally power, Link will lose for sure.

The LAW has no power against the LOLs, proof of that? L-Block
#475 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 8/20/2013 5:57:23 AM | message detail
SliceSabre posted...
Is anyone under the impression this rally Draven could be used to threaten the dominance that is Link?

I know speaking ill against Link to tantamount to treason, but it is possible for him to lose.


If this happens again Link will get smoked. In fact Jak and Chie could end up higher in the xstats.
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#476 | alexjones555 | Posted 8/20/2013 5:58:27 AM | message detail
seriously? some guy i've never heard of beating 2 classic characters who've been around for years.
#477 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/20/2013 5:58:47 AM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
And this is a bad thing...why? If we could get a counterrally going with Pokémon, we could...

Could...

Oh, F***, Pikachu and Charizard would be SFFing each other against Draven in the finals! He'd still win!

save_us.mewtwo


Yeah, we can't have both Pikachu and Charizard in the finals. We must let Charizard choke against Mario so we have Draven/Pikachu/Mario in the finals, as Mario has a better chance than Cloud, Snake, or Epona to defeat Draven.

Or we just propel Mewtwo past Sonic and laugh as Sephiroth struggles to get 10% in a match between Draven and Mewtwo.

Actually, that sounds like the better option. Let's do that.
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#478 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/20/2013 6:02:37 AM | message detail | (edited)
We have to mobilize, quickly! We can't count on Pikachu or Charizard to save us from Draven because they'll be SFFing each other in the finals. Mewtwo vs. Vincent is less than 24 hours away! If Pokémon really is our best hope of stopping Draven...we need to get the rally started quickly to save Mewtwo from Vincent, give him a chance of putting an end to Draven in the semis.

Anyone here got a serebii.net account?
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#479 | abdou | Posted 8/20/2013 6:01:47 AM | message detail
There is absolutely no way this is legit rallying, I can't believe you people even doubt that. Not that it matters , it's either Link winning every time or a joke character (L-Block, now Draven)
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#480 | BlackDra90n | Posted 8/20/2013 6:02:18 AM | message detail
Rally for rally IMO. The Pokemon rally seems like a good idea.
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#481 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/20/2013 6:04:24 AM | message detail
So the plan is for Kanz to redeem himself by making a post on the Pokemon subreddit to vote for Mewtwo, with Board 8 upvoting it. Then Mewtwo should crush Vincent. Repeat for Sonic, and then we can have LoL vs Pokemon, leading to a bloody civil war on reddit where thousands of redditors fight to the death over which video game character should win a popularity contest poll.

Obviously, with all the ralliers dead, the winner then gets crushed 90/10 by Epona, thus saving GameFAQs and giving the most accurate x-stats possible.
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#482 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 8/20/2013 6:04:54 AM | message detail
No please no more crazy rallying. Let's just admit to defeat a the hands of Draven, and run the rest of the contest normally.
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#483 | Enct | Posted 8/20/2013 6:06:27 AM | message detail
people getting upset over a popularity contest is hilarious

especially when the key word is popularity, and the game in question is the most played
#484 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/20/2013 6:07:37 AM | message detail
I don't really care who wins, I just don't like the fact that every single vote from every regular visitor has been made 100% irrelevant. Rallying for something else to win is no different to me than Draven winning.

Well I guess it would be a little better because Draven sucks, but a pokemon especially wouldn't be any better
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#485 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/20/2013 6:13:56 AM | message detail
We should get Epona in the finals for sure. Rally the MLP subreddit that surely exists to get her there.

As for Mario vs Charizard, that will depend on whether Mewtwo upsets Draven. If he does, get Mario there, as we don't need Pokemon LFF making things too easy for Epona. Make her impress without that measly excuse. If Draven's still around, though, bring in the Zard.
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#486 | raytan7585 | Posted 8/20/2013 6:14:02 AM | message detail
#487 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 8/20/2013 6:14:21 AM | message detail
Enct posted...
people getting upset over a popularity contest is hilarious

especially when the key word is popularity, and the game in question is the most played


It's not really the fact that he's winning that is upsetting people, its the fact that he is COMPLETELY DEMOLISHING anything in his path.

But I'm not that mad because Link and Draven play each other next match anyway, so were basically just replacing one monster for another.
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#488 | armitage999 | Posted 8/20/2013 6:21:33 AM | message detail
He didn't even beat Jak and Chie as badly as he's beating two characters who are considerably more popular than Jak and Chie. An early rally was enough to put him over and it stopped when he got comfortably ahead.
#489 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/20/2013 6:33:38 AM | message detail
I skipped the last 15 pages (I was tired and I just woke up and had a ton to catch up on), but the rally thread his the front page of reddit without an appreciable increase in votes for any of the three characters. That tells me that the rally didn't add that many votes and that there's a whole lot of stuffing going on.
#490 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/20/2013 6:36:39 AM | message detail
You know what else is really, really weird? The legit numbers from Indonesia. We actually get a decent chunk of voters from there. So what, Indonesia has no redditors or LOLers? Indonesia alone should tell us there's some real strange business going on here.
#491 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/20/2013 6:39:37 AM | message detail
Indonesia is stuffing for Megaman X!!!!
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#492 | Djungelurban | Posted 8/20/2013 6:39:44 AM | message detail
Here's a radical and crazy idea... In order to combat this influx of unregistered voters ruining things for us, we could have unregistered votes be worth 1 vote each and then have registered votes be worth the amount of karma of that account. Would actually make the karma of an account valuable for once. Or if that would skew things way too much towards long time users, maybe cap it, like the maximum voting power is like 100 or have the voting power be calculated based on karma/50 with the minimum always being 1. I don't know, could be an idea, would certainly mix things up alright...
#493 | abdou | Posted 8/20/2013 6:40:29 AM | message detail
Yeah this is definitely not a rally, and that is the worst thing, I was OK with L-Block despite not finding it funny because the whole Internet rallied for it, but this...this is just one or few losers stuffing like there is no tomorrow.
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#494 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/20/2013 6:41:16 AM | message detail
Whether it's stuffing or not, there's no way the result gets overturned anyway
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#495 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/20/2013 6:47:12 AM | message detail
taking bets on "no stuffing for draven, but x and ryu had a bunch of attempted stuffed votes that were blocked!"

who wants some of this action
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#496 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/20/2013 6:48:08 AM | message detail
The Mana Sword posted...
taking bets on "no stuffing for draven, but x and ryu had a bunch of attempted stuffed votes that were blocked!"

who wants some of this action


I'll take 5.
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#497 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/20/2013 6:49:04 AM | message detail
All of Draven's were legit but we had to remove 5000 each from Ryu and X
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#498 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/20/2013 6:56:00 AM | message detail
The craziest part of all this is you can't blame the low vote totals, Draven would be winning in any year
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#499 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/20/2013 6:59:04 AM | message detail
If it was the most popular year on record and the match was Link/Chester/Draven, then Draven might have lost!
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#500 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/20/2013 6:59:11 AM | message detail
Draven sucks
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