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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1120
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StealThisSheen posted... Lightning Strikes posted...-LusterSoldier- posted...Lightning Strikes posted...Also, for reference the rally has about 1800 upvotes, and about 800 downvotes. First, that would mean that only 6% of people who voted in the rally upvoted it. Second, half as many people downvoted it, meaning they oppose the rally. So of the people who DO see the rally, maybe 2/3 are voting Draven. And the idea of 10% of a site's subscribers seeing this in a few hours is already pretty sketchy. Majority? No. More than 6%? Yes. r/leagueoflegends isn't THAT big a deal. No way it is getting the absurd amounts of traffic required for this. --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
LeonhartFour posted... Although I suppose if there's one good thing about Draven winning, it means my Ryu > MMX pick won't drop me off the leaderboard the day after I make it. This is the true tragedy, tbqh! Too bad I am fully committed to picking everything, because this was absolutely a match to stay clear of. Actually being on the leaderboard made me too conservative to go for Draven here so I had no choice but to go for MMX given I was confident Ryu wouldn't end up close. Briefly considered taking Ryu > MMX as some kind of "hedge" to cover this kind of situation but my heart just wasn't in it because to me I should just be taking Draven in that situation. Had to go all-in here between MMX and Draven and it's just awful it's a 36 point swing. Lightning Strikes posted... Kanz, there isn't really that much of a difference between 75 and 67. I think we'll get a comment because these votals are just such an outlier but I think you'll be disappointed if you're expecting anything other than, "Fair, next." --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
LordoftheMorons posted... Zinganger posted...KanzarisKelshen posted...KanzarisKelshen posted...Iubaris posted...Where are you planning on posting it? I use reddit a lot, and different subreddits have widely varying cultures. I don't think it would get very far on /r/gaming, for example. www.zeldauniverse.net |
Take GameFAQs. How many topics on this board get less than 5% posts in relation to how many people see it. Now realize there are a ton more people seeing the reddit than seeing B8. --- SEP Nash, Smelling Like the Vault since 1996 Step FOUR! Get Paid! http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/456/2z6v0qcgif.gif |
You know, I just realized we're getting a 1/2/3 seed final here. what a predictable division --- http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o8250gifyd.gif http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o6250gifuv.gif |
LeonhartFour posted... You know, I just realized we're getting a 1/2/3 seed final here. if only we could have some character come out of nowhere and shake things up --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
LeonhartFour posted... You know, I just realized we're getting a 1/2/3 seed final here. This is probably the biggest tragedy of the match. |
Honestly
the numbers suggest stuffing, so I'm going stuffing to some extent. To
me suspicious poll numbers mean more than feasibility. People will do
weird things. You just need one weird League fan with some degree of
knowhow to code this up and they had about a month to do it if they were
paying attention to the contest. It could also be a collection of
people who have their own proxy collection for DDOS's working together.
You just need one or a small group of crazy dudes to care-- that's more
feasible, to me, than having the numbers pan out as they are from the
rally. On that note, the other suspicious thing is that the turnout for this rally was so vastly different in number and much more importantly proportion than the one last round. Last round, the Draven rally couldn't even defeat Jak in the US, and used suspiciously large percentages in Europe to win. This round, he's good enough to beat MMX everywhere, and isn't winning in Europe by a higher amount. Why is that? Also the numbers-- as the "rallied" votes decrease MMX+Ryu's proportion of the rallied votes are tanking to hell. The likely explanation for that is a lower proportion of the "rallied" votes are legitimate as the rally is losing steam, and the stuffing proportion going to Draven at 100% is remaining closer to constant than the rally is. Just too many strangenesses to the whole thing to buy it. You call me conspiracy theorist, I call you painfully naive. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Link/Cloud/L-Block/Snake at 6:02 AM - 50393 Draven/Ryu/MMX at 6:00 AM - 51502 --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
At the very least this match will now be talked about for years. --- Dr voltchball - best in the world. |
voltch posted... At the very least this match will now be talked about for years. I actually kind of doubt it. It'll be the Link match. Possibly the Jak match too. This, along with the Sephiroth/Sonic match are likely to be the forgotten ones, IMO. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
I doubt your doubt. --- Dr voltchball - best in the world. |
That's possible! I mean, this match is such a leap up it could be remembered for that. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Lopen posted... Honestly the numbers suggest stuffing, so I'm going stuffing to some extent. To me suspicious poll numbers mean more than feasibility. People will do weird things. You just need one weird League fan with some degree of knowhow to code this up and they had about a month to do it if they were using. It could also be a collection of people who have their own proxy collection for DDOS's working together. You just need one or a small group of crazy dudes to care-- that's more feasible, to me, than having the numbers pan out as they are from the rally. What is weird is that if it was all rally it appears to be incredibly focused. I don't know anything about LoL so I can't say how much of a hive mind it is, but that's a little suspicious to say the least. I also don't know anything about stuffing. How it works, how much effort is required, etc. Personally I feel like it's hard t to call this either way - mostly stuffing, or mostly rallying. Next match will tell us at least something, because rallied votes should have a very noticeable carryover. Hopefully Allen will make a topic about it as well. For now though, I am absolutely loving this. This stuff is good for gameFAQs. --- Congratulations Solid Snake, our CBIX champion! |
Chart from the day match: Time | Shepard | Tharja | Aerith | Votes 0:05 | 36.95% | 21.25% | 41.80% | 433 1:00 | 39.47% | 19.47% | 41.06% | 5731 2:00 | 41.85% | 17.34% | 40.81% | 4401 3:00 | 42.39% | 18.22% | 39.39% | 3803 4:00 | 41.42% | 19.56% | 39.01% | 3527 5:00 | 41.84% | 19.23% | 38.93% | 3162 6:00 | 44.14% | 17.61% | 38.25% | 2936 7:00 | 41.02% | 19.75% | 39.23% | 2684 8:00 | 42.73% | 17.98% | 39.30% | 2392 9:00 | 42.37% | 18.17% | 39.46% | 2240 10:00 | 40.87% | 19.28% | 39.85% | 2173 11:00 | 42.18% | 20.10% | 37.71% | 1925 12:00 | 40.48% | 18.79% | 40.73% | 1623 Aerith wins the first hour and the last hour. Shepard wins everything in between, including his best hour at the midpoint of the match that essentially sealed the deal. Also, take this match in because it'll be one of the rare instances where an FFVII character's best hour is the first hour. X-Stats: Commander Shepard 50.00% Aerith Gainsborough 48.71% Captain Olimar 35.33% Hero 32.70% Tharja 31.08% Tiny Tina 30.70% Rinoa Heartilly 30.52% Juliet Starling 27.34% Kain 23.38% Shepard's prediction percentage was 54.26% --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
Also,
without knowing anything about computers, proxies or the gamefaqs
stuffing vote detection, I'd assume the poll checks IP addresses, so if
you had a program that generated a new IP address for every vote that
might work? Would a randomly generated IP address have the same
geolocation origin point each time? --- *shrug* |
Well board activity's gone up and I'm seeing new faces around. --- Dr voltchball - best in the world. |
I
think we're looking at an average of 300 stuffed votes per five, with
more at the start, maybe a bit less now as it's dragging on. That's
about what makes the proportion of the Ryu/MMX votes the rally is
bringing in to make sense. If you don't assume that you're assuming
that the longer the match is going on the less and less MMX/Ryu are
being voted by rallied votes, and that as little as 1/20 rallied votes
are going for one of them, despite a lot of comments in that
topic being something like "I thought about voting Draven but hell yeah
Mega Man" or "I saw Ryu and just couldn't" or whatever. Vocal minority
is possible, but given the down votes I'm not so sure. For the record if you put stuffed per five at 250-400 as the match goes on Ryu+MMX are getting about 30% of the rallied votes. To me that seems more likely than Draven getting 90%+ given his mixed reaction in the community and the broad appeal of MMX+Ryu. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
With
51502 votes at 6:00 AM, this match would have to average 674 votes per
update over the last 6 hours of the match to break 100000 votes. That's
not going to happen, though. The 5:00-6:00 AM hour only averaged 471
votes per update and we're heading into the morning vote when vote
totals will go up again, assuming the rally doesn't lose any steam as we
get closer to the end of the match. I'd say this match is definitely going to break 70000 votes. We'll probably break 80000 votes on this match, which easily surpasses Sephiroth/Missingno for the most popular night match in history. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
nintendogirl1 posted... Also, without knowing anything about computers, proxies or the gamefaqs stuffing vote detection, I'd assume the poll checks IP addresses, so if you had a program that generated a new IP address for every vote that might work? Would a randomly generated IP address have the same geolocation origin point each time? You'd basically have to tell it where to create the geolocation point, make sure it's evenly distributed, and then account for things such as... Having %%%x votes come from the US compared to Mongolia, etc. It's doable, probably... But would have literally no application outside of this, and would have to be pretty much perfect/not mess up. --- SEP Nash, Smelling Like the Vault since 1996 Step FOUR! Get Paid! http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/456/2z6v0qcgif.gif |
Current X-Stats: Draven 50.00% Jak 45.06% Chie Satonaka 39.42% Mega Man X 21.85% Ryu 16.21% Jigglypuff 11.76% Yuri Lowell 10.36% Face McShooty 7.67% Welkin Gunther 6.19% And somehow Yuri will end up lower in the stats than he did in 2010...! --- http://i848.photobucket.com/albums/ab48/Leonhart4/Squall.jpg |
nintendogirl1 posted... Also, without knowing anything about computers, proxies or the gamefaqs stuffing vote detection, I'd assume the poll checks IP addresses, so if you had a program that generated a new IP address for every vote that might work? Would a randomly generated IP address have the same geolocation origin point each time? IIRC, yes. The ISP has region-assigned IPs, which tends to narrow it down to 'this is the place'. Stuffing is in theory hard work because you have to deliberately use proxies to jump all over the world, and they're a very small percentage of the full IP pool (still a gargantuan number regardless, though). |
Lopen posted... I think we're looking at an average of 300 stuffed votes per five, with more at the start, maybe a bit less now as it's dragging on. So let's assume you're right. You were saying 400 per five initially. What would account for the slowing down/loss, if it's all just a bot? A bot would have no reason to slow down. --- SEP Nash, Smelling Like the Vault since 1996 Step FOUR! Get Paid! http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/456/2z6v0qcgif.gif |
It's
doable, probably... But would have literally no application outside of
this, and would have to be pretty much perfect/not mess up You don't have to be perfect. There's some strangenesses on the map if you look for them. A few places in Europe-- Portugal had like 97% last time I looked. You just need to be close enough to good that Bacon doesn't try to sift through it. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Lopen posted... It's doable, probably... But would have literally no application outside of this, and would have to be pretty much perfect/not mess up X has several 100% places, etc. too, to be fair. --- SEP Nash, Smelling Like the Vault since 1996 Step FOUR! Get Paid! http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/456/2z6v0qcgif.gif |
Also, for the heck of it, here are the 10 minute stats, before Draven made his first cut: Mega Man X 50.00% Ryu 42.26% Draven 27.36% Yuri Lowell 27.02% Jigglypuff 26.91% Jak 24.66% Chie Satonaka 21.57% Face McShooty 19.99% Welkin Gunther 14.17% Might could use these for adjusted stats, but Jak and Chie are way too high. Not like it matters either way. --- http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o8250gifyd.gif http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o6250gifuv.gif |
What would account for the slowing down/loss, if it's all just a bot? A bot would have no reason to slow down. It's a few bots and they're shutting a few of them down because they're going to sleep or whatever. I'm pretty sure it's impossible to do this with just one machine anyway. You can't output the volume. It honestly hasn't slowed down much. The only significant dropoff in projected stuffed votes is after the first hour-- which is obvious to assume why it'd slow down because the match was in hand. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
StealThisSheen posted... Lopen posted...It's doable, probably... But would have literally no application outside of this, and would have to be pretty much perfect/not mess up 100% is not glaring because it can be literally one vote. 97% is because it has to be Draven with like 45 to X's 1 for that math to work out. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
You went from "All it takes is one person" to "Well, it's probably several" And now you're saying they're shutting down to go to sleep? Why would they not just leave them running? It's hard to not think "Conspiracy theorist" with some of your posts, dude. >_> --- SEP Nash, Smelling Like the Vault since 1996 Step FOUR! Get Paid! http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/456/2z6v0qcgif.gif |
Actually, Jak and Chie aren't that bad. Probably still overrated considering Draven started off round 1 getting doubled by Jak as opposed to starting off round 2 getting doubled by Ryu, but probably not bad numbers. I think seeing how bad Jigglypuff looks is what's throwing me off, but it's probably about right. --- http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o8250gifyd.gif http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o6250gifuv.gif |
StealThisSheen posted... nintendogirl1 posted...Also, without knowing anything about computers, proxies or the gamefaqs stuffing vote detection, I'd assume the poll checks IP addresses, so if you had a program that generated a new IP address for every vote that might work? Would a randomly generated IP address have the same geolocation origin point each time? Would you? If you assume it has access to every IP address, wouldn't on average (over 20,000 stuffed votes) a majority come from America, Europe, etc. because of a higher percentage of IP addresses being in those countries, while Mongolia has far fewer to randomly generate. --- *shrug* |
F*** it, I'm going to sleep now, hoping that I wake up to a miracle --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Lopen posted... StealThisSheen posted...Lopen posted...It's doable, probably... But would have literally no application outside of this, and would have to be pretty much perfect/not mess up Fair point, but how many votes typically come from somewhere like Portugal? If it's a decent number, then it's easier to get 97% without nefarious means. --- SEP Nash, Smelling Like the Vault since 1996 Step FOUR! Get Paid! http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/456/2z6v0qcgif.gif |
StealThisSheen posted... You went from "All it takes is one person" to "Well, it's probably several" I said several machines, not people. I also said it could be one or a group. Also if you leave them running and oversleep you have votes being stuffed into the next match potentially, or sending votes to a closed poll. Either one is super suspicious so you need to be around to turn that off. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
nintendogirl1 posted... StealThisSheen posted...nintendogirl1 posted...Also, without knowing anything about computers, proxies or the gamefaqs stuffing vote detection, I'd assume the poll checks IP addresses, so if you had a program that generated a new IP address for every vote that might work? Would a randomly generated IP address have the same geolocation origin point each time? It wouldn't have access to every IP address. It'd just have examples of IP addresses from areas and then make some based on those. That's why stuffing is obvious, usually, because suddenly a country that never has any votes will suddenly have a lot... Because proxies tend to come from places outside of big countries, to avoid being caught/filtered out/etc. --- SEP Nash, Smelling Like the Vault since 1996 Step FOUR! Get Paid! http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/456/2z6v0qcgif.gif |
Pfft. Stop.Stuff at time.set(12.00) (Obviously not code) (It looks codey to me) --- *shrug* |
Draven is 3500 votes from singlehandedly surpassing the highest votals this contest. This will be a gloriously horrible sight to behold. |
Lopen posted... StealThisSheen posted...You went from "All it takes is one person" to "Well, it's probably several" It stops you from voting once the poll changes. I've tried that, by having my vote on a character at 11:59, then trying to vote at 12:00, and it says it's invalid or whatever. So it'd stop working, more than likely, since nothing would tell it to refresh and get the new... whatever. --- SEP Nash, Smelling Like the Vault since 1996 Step FOUR! Get Paid! http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/456/2z6v0qcgif.gif |
Also I like how you ignored the most important part of that post in that the rate actually hasn't really dropped off since the first hour. It's been like 50 less stuffed votes on average tops (and possibly less than that) over the next 6 hours. And hell if ngirl is right on the algorithm (seems feasible, at least) it could just be that the IP generator is hitting more duplicates which is causing the rate to slow. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
nintendogirl1 posted... Pfft. While it's not code, this is essentially all the logic you'd have to follow to stop the bot from stuffing. Depending on the program, that could even be how many lines you'd need. |
Singerton posted... Draven is 3500 votes from singlehandedly surpassing the highest votals this contest. Said highest votals were set by Draven himself, as well. Too good. |
Lopen posted... Also I like how you ignored the most important part of that post in that the rate actually hasn't really dropped off since the first hour. It's been like 50 less stuffed votes on average tops (and possibly less than that) over the next 6 hours. Hey, you're the one saying somebody figured out a way to have a bot stuff almost perfectly, but then doesn't know how to have it stop and thus needs to turn it off when they go to sleep! And I was basing it on the fact that earlier you kept saying it was 400/5, and now you're saying it's 300/5. --- SEP Nash, Smelling Like the Vault since 1996 Step FOUR! Get Paid! http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/456/2z6v0qcgif.gif |
If it was this easy to stuff, it would have been done before. I don't think LoL fans are computer geniuses on a level higher than anyone else --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
Yeah fair enough on that. Still though, people shutting their computer off to go to sleep is not that weird. Also the algorithm just slowing down. Or just a dude throttling back the stuffing a bit as the match goes because it's in hand and to make it seem "less suspicious" Lots of feasible reasons for it. The fact that the rate hasn't slowed more is what you should be suspicious of. You'd think the number of fresh viewers of the thread would slow over time but it hasn't significantly for a few hours now. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
but they are more numerous --- Dr voltchball - best in the world. |
And I was basing it on the fact that earlier you kept saying it was 400/5, and now you're saying it's 300/5. The first estimate was before I'd actually ran the numbers closely and just briefly eyeballed it off of a 15 minute update in consecutive hours, the second was after I went in depth and found that 400 per 5 was probably too much. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
voltch posted... but they are more numerous I want to say "They are legion", but I think that's 4chans line. --- *shrug* |
nintendogirl1 posted... voltch posted...but they are more numerous And honestly, with this result that'd be an insult to LoL. Ten legions is closer to the mark. |
I mean, I'll be fair. I'm not saying it's impossible that it's stuffing. Maybe somebody really did legit get that into it. But to do it so well and so easily seems very unlikely, as it should have happened before. LoL players aren't some geniuses beyond normal level, as already said. This shouldn't be something unique to what they could do. We should have seen it before. But we haven't, which makes me feel it's just too unlikely to be the case. --- SEP Nash, Smelling Like the Vault since 1996 Step FOUR! Get Paid! http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/456/2z6v0qcgif.gif |
Also
if you did something like ngirl's algorithm, and stored the ip
addresses you'd used in an array or something so as to not attempt to
vote from the same place more than once, the program would actually
naturally slow down over time. So yeah uh I don't think it's that weird for it to naturally slow down a little even if it is automated. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
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