GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1124
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PS1 LFF from Spyro + TJF = Morrigan overperformance! --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
xp1337 posted... KanzarisKelshen posted...Hm. Looking at the prediction percentages, I'd feel concerned if the finals bracket is in the 73 to 66 range. Lower than that and mistakes in the later rounds (especially failures in predicting the Division of Death and consequently Snake/Cloud) are going to be extremely costly - get Snake/Cloud wrong and you lose a third of the advantage you gain from picking Draven in the finals. It's possible for the gaffes to add up to the point a properly predicted bracket (minus Draven's run) can win, especially if some really unlikely events continue to happen throughout the bracket a la Vincent's superflop. Not a certainty, for sure, but not impossible either. Last I checked predicting the contest winner is worth 81 points. 27 = one third of 81. What I said is that getting a contested Round 4 match right gets you a third of the way to padding yourself enough that the win of the fifth round won't matter. NOT that it's worth a third of the entire run. Might want to work on the reading comprehension a bit. |
If you are including results that are "not impossible", a Draven bracket can lose simply by Draven losing. --- Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place Pokemon VGC2013 Worlds LCQ - Top 32 |
Team Rocket Elite posted... If you are including results that are "not impossible", a Draven bracket can lose simply by Draven losing. Also this, of course. Speaking of which, mix this with my last post and here's some food for thought: what happens if Link loses and Mario or Snake come through in the final? Mario especially here. I'm not even sure an elligible bracket wins the prize, because picking Mario to win it all is an even crazier pick than Draven. |
A
correct Draven run is worth 117 points just for Round 3, 4 and 5.
You're only including the points from Round 5. Not a single Guru has
Draven winning in Round 3. --- Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place Pokemon VGC2013 Worlds LCQ - Top 32 |
...I thought we were still talking about the Guru. Are there actually brackets with Draven > Link and then Cloud/Snake win? Because really if we're talking unrealistic here, a situation where the rest of Draven's run isn't applicable to the math here seems to be at the top of the list. Trying to restrict the Draven advantage to the final match and not the previous two rounds is just so bizarre I can honestly admit I would never have thought it would be tried. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Team Rocket Elite posted... A correct Draven run is worth 117 points just for Round 3, 4 and 5. You're only including the points from Round 5. Not a single Guru has Draven winning in Round 3. That's correct, yes. I am speaking about the fifth round only, because I'm running math in my head at this very moment thinking about how many correct picks you have to get vs. how many wrong ones a Draven picker has to make to eliminate the lion's share of his gains. |
And you don't think Rounds 3 and 4 should be given to the Draven brackets for the math here? ...Well then. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Or,
to make this clearer: Most of the points from picking Draven to win
come from the fifth round. Thus I am focusing on asking myself 'how many
things do you have to get right to erase an 81 point deficit?', because
if you can do that, going all the way and winning the contest
becomes a much easier task. It's not about assuming Draven doesn't win
the fifth round. It's about determining if the fifth round can be
invalidated by a mix of sufficiently clever picking and sufficiently
terrible picks from a Draven supporter. |
can we just not indulge this... ugh I mean the idea of Draven beating Link and then someone else winning the contest is about on the same level of 'well what if Shepard beats Draven and Link instead huh'. There are outside results, and then there is that. I don't even know how that would be mathematically possible. The Draven supporters would have to willingly tank their own rally after beating Link. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
of course you can screw up an 81 or even the 117 point advantage. The thing is my position only requires one person to not do that. And I'd still take that position in this unrealistic world where for some reason we're only counting the 81 points even though I still can't think of a realistic situation in which you'd ever want to to do that. I think it's a pretty safe position to take! You're the one who said the Guru winner is "almost certain" to win the contest still! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Karma Hunter posted... can we just not indulge this... ugh I've gone over this already. It's about determining just how different the tastes of the average member of the LoL Reddit fanbase differ from GameFAQS, and if they have any particularly salient touchstones. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if more rallied voters preferred Snake over Link for instance. |
Karma Hunter posted... can we just not indulge this... ugh Yeah, I'm basically done here. I... honestly did not see things going this way. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
There
is no entity anywhere in the world that would influence a primed voting
block like that. If I could somehow magically influence the poll for
Draven's next match to display the favorite character of any given
rallied voter in place of Link, I'd expect Draven to go 50/50 with it at
worst. This experiment has already been conducted; this is a foregone conclusion. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
xp1337 posted... of course you can screw up an 81 or even the 117 point advantage. Sigh. I'm not just counting the points awarded in the finals. I'm simply eliminating the amount of useless mathematics I have to do to determine if it is possible for a guru bracket to win. If the 81 point deficit simply cannot be overcome, it makes no sense to speculate on additional matches beyond that. So I am starting with the smallest 'insurmountable' gain (as opposed to the next biggest gain from picking Draven to win it all, his Round 4 victory, which can be completely nullified by getting a single round 4 upset right) and working my way up from there, because it's less time consuming. Makes sense now? |
And
so far we've learned that they like Draven a lot more than GameFAQs.
That's almost as interesting as the time we found out that Steam users
like Gordon Freeman a lot more than GameSpot users did. --- Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place Pokemon VGC2013 Worlds LCQ - Top 32 |
Yeah. Gordon, Launchpad McQuack, Draven, no one can say they aren't unexpected results pre-contest. But to continue
the arguments that the contest isn't about to be drowned by Draven when
we can see the tidal wave coming is getting to be really grating. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Team Rocket Elite posted... And so far we've learned that they like Draven a lot more than GameFAQs. That's almost as interesting as the time we found out that Steam users like Gordon Freeman a lot more than GameSpot users did. That might not even be comparable, actually. Didn't Snake/Big Boss and Gordon have a basically dead even high scoring match before Valve chipped in? I should actually go and look at the votals of that match compared to the finals, sometime. See just how important an entire company rallying for its character officially in the biggest game platform in the world was. |
Sephiroth's just kidding around here. He must be. He's going to hit 50% eventually, right? ...Right? --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
I "understand" what you're doing, but I disagree it makes sense. Checking back in on Sephiroth he's still in the mid-49% range. Pretty certain he can get to 50% in the TDZ but I don't know if he can hold it. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Hey, the last thing I want is more Draven arguing. As far as I was concerned we were arguing the math on the leaderboard! I wasn't going to let myself get pulled in past that. But seeing as how somehow the leaderboard stuff got pulled in that direction I will absolutely stop if we can get back to any other topic. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
...Man.
I just went and checked and Snake and Gordon's match pulled in 132k
votes. The finals pulled in 192k if my at-a-glance math is not failing
me. In other words, an official rally for Gordon in the finals of a
contest got, in theory, no more than 60k votes. That just seems
completely crazy to me. Crazy low! |
You are only just now realizing the strength of an LoL rally compared to everything else after you hyped it up for so long? |
Sephy looking very weak. Also if draven steamrolls everything, the guru winner will not win the contest. |
KanzarisKelshen posted... Team Rocket Elite posted...And so far we've learned that they like Draven a lot more than GameFAQs. That's almost as interesting as the time we found out that Steam users like Gordon Freeman a lot more than GameSpot users did. Link went even with Gordon for 6 days. Gordon 85-15'd Link on Day 7. --- Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place Pokemon VGC2013 Worlds LCQ - Top 32 |
In
a roundabout way, Kanz actually is right about Mario in the finals.
L-Block never had to face Mario, and rallies against Mario on this site
have hilariously backfired since about 2004. He's probably the one
character that can't be rallied against well on any site. That being said, Draven would be against Mario in the final and would have more than enough steam by then. If Mario were in Link's place, Draven probably loses. But people HATE that Link always wins here and are going to just wreck him. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page, Rest in peace Kazbar :( |
(I'm voting Shepard and don't really care who wins because my girl is getting like 2.1%) --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page, Rest in peace Kazbar :( |
tgs2 posted... You are only just now realizing the strength of an LoL rally compared to everything else after you hyped it up for so long? No, I'm realizing how scattered and weak Valve's fanbase has to be if the developers telling their fans to vote for their character didn't even produce 60k votes total for a match. Steam is ten times bigger than LoL. The percentage of people who must have given half a damn there must have been beyond abysmal. We're talking what, a hundredth of a percent? Less? That's just ridiculous. Freakin' Skullgirls has had a more effective rally than that, relatively speaking. |
Wow Sephiroth is laying an egg here. If Big Boss beats him it might redeem Draven winning the contest somewhat. |
That's
probably one of the reasons people don't think the LoL rally is legit. A
large front page ad on Steam's website drew in fewer voters than LoL. --- Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place Pokemon VGC2013 Worlds LCQ - Top 32 |
Fr0zoN posted... Wow Sephiroth is laying an egg here. If Big Boss beats him it might redeem Draven winning the contest somewhat. Watch Luigi win tomorrow and then get embarrassed by the Kirbster's presence there. |
Sephiroth should end up looking better later, but man 62.75% on Morrigan I wanted to damage control for him, but uh... --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
You know a contest is whack when Donkey ****ing Kong can exceed expectations better than Sephiroth. I mean, just...damn. |
Luigi will not lose to Big Boss. N-Nor will he lose to Sephiroth even with Kirby in the match. It's...It's the year of Luigi 2013, after all. --- Brawl FC - 1332 8069 6690 http://i.imgur.com/OZ9aS.png |
KanzarisKelshen posted... Fr0zoN posted...Wow Sephiroth is laying an egg here. If Big Boss beats him it might redeem Draven winning the contest somewhat. Well that would really suck. I have Luigi in my bracket but hopefully Big Boss can pull through. Back to Sephiroth and this performance is so bad because he's not even at a pic disadvantage which would be entirely possible against Morrigan and Spyro. He would surely be doing even worse with full body pics and that is just strange to think about. This is a seriously terrible performance. |
There's
really no damage controlling this performance - it'll either be
validated or it won't. This is also why I complained about Seph being
wasted in this bracket, though maybe Kirby or BB can make it
interesting. It'd have been a much bigger debate and bracket buster to
put someone like Sonic or Mega Man in his way though. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Karma Hunter posted... There's really no damage controlling this performance - it'll either be validated or it won't. This is also why I complained about Seph being wasted in this bracket, though maybe Kirby or BB can make it interesting. It'd have been a much bigger debate and bracket buster to put someone like Sonic or Mega Man in his way though. That would've been rigged as hell though, and probably less fun than seeing if Naked Snake could beat Seph (if he wins tomorrow). I mean, where's the thrill in seeing Sonic be dragged down by a Kirby anchor (who we know won't beat him) while Big Boss cruises to victory? Probably the same happens with Mega Man, but he might just be not-Nintendo enough to keep a fanbase and win. Neither match is one I'm more interested in seeing than the Sonic pileup or MM/Zero/Charizard though. |
Fr0zoN posted... KanzarisKelshen posted...Fr0zoN posted...Wow Sephiroth is laying an egg here. If Big Boss beats him it might redeem Draven winning the contest somewhat. ...but this is just silly. Seph is at an obvious pic disadvantage here, though it's not like what Vincent faced or anything. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Yeah, I'm not worried Seph is going to lose this division or anything. This performance though! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Seph is at a disadvantage yes. This is still
nothing compared to how much worse it could be if it was, say, ugly
flames Sephiroth vs literally any full body Morrigan shot. Go to google
and pick one at random and ask yourself if that ridiculous TJF doesn't
make her perform even better than her poppin' pic today. |
Sonic
put up 50% as well the other day against pretty respectable opponents. I
cant believe Sonic can beat Seph but with how weird the contest has
been since Draven who knows.... |
Seph
isn't doing that poorly... 1v1 extrapolation he's putting up 71% on
Spyro. Guy gets antivoted, he just doesn't triple anyone. --- ... as if rights are like muscles - the more you use it, the better it gets. Indeed he may be exercising his first amendment-- but he's an IDIOT! - A. Scalia |
Sonic put up 50% on okay competition, but one of the competitors there was Barret,
the weakest FF7 PC there is outside of maybe Cait Sith. If FF7 looks
bad, then Sonic's performance looks bad, there's no way to get away from
it. And there's no way Seph doesn't double Barret indirectly. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
IngmarBirdman posted... Seph isn't doing that poorly... 1v1 extrapolation he's putting up 71% on Spyro. Guy gets antivoted, he just doesn't triple anyone. He's also failing to double Morrigan. 2002 Mario is outdoing Sephiroth right now. You're on notice, Mama's Boy. |
Ehhh
I'm not seeing the disadvantage. Seph looks like Seph, Morrigan looks
like Morrigan and Spyro looks like Spyro. It's about as much as you can
expect from the pics this contest. I guess Morrigan kinda stands out a
little bit but I think it's a pretty fair pic all round. I think Seph does a lot worse if Morrigan gets this pic again http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb9/5162.jpg |
Karma Hunter posted... Sonic put up 50% on okay competition, but one of the competitors there was Barret, the weakest FF7 PC there is outside of maybe Cait Sith. If FF7 looks bad, then Sonic's performance looks bad, there's no way to get away from it. And there's no way Seph doesn't double Barret indirectly. Yeah but one of the competitors in this poll is Spyro the freaking Dragon. I think the competition that both guys had is pretty comparable so to see them so close on percentage is freaky. If I had to pick pre contest Barrett vs Morrigan and Dracula vs Spyro I would of gone with both of the Sonic pack. Even if Seph's match is slightly stronger we are still comparing him to Sonic which is a steep drop =/ |
Fr0zoN posted... Ehhh I'm not seeing the disadvantage. Seph looks like Seph, Morrigan looks like Morrigan and Spyro looks like Spyro. It's about as much as you can expect from the pics this contest. I guess Morrigan kinda stands out a little bit but I think it's a pretty fair pic all round. Recognizability is not the only factor. This picture is an easy callback to Zero putting up 47% on Crono, the same Zero who was incapable of doubling HK-47, lost to Ryu Hayabusa, and nearly lost to Vivi. Seph just doesn't look good. I understand an absence of being able to prove the counterfactual allows people to be endlessly contrarian (people swore on their lives Sprite Snake didn't affect matches one iota!), but this is a pretty obvious imbalance. If I wanted a better performance from Seph I'd take Morrigan's R1 picture and just his standard FF7 art to contrast with it any day. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Morrigan
has been in what, one contest? Do we have a good read on her strength. I
don't know much about Spyro - his games were older right, until
something recent, last couple-ish years? --- ... as if rights are like muscles - the more you use it, the better it gets. Indeed he may be exercising his first amendment-- but he's an IDIOT! - A. Scalia |
We
don't have a read on Morrigan since 2002 when she was probably helped
out a ton by Mario anti-voting. And we probably still don't have a real
read on her lol Spyro we saw once more after 2002, when he did horrifically in 2007. Seph is 'expected' to 90/10 him based on that showing but lol if you think Seph can 90/10 anyone --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Karma Hunter posted... We don't have a read on Morrigan since 2002 when she was probably helped out a ton by Mario anti-voting. And we probably still don't have a real read on her lol Seph vs Chester, Chester avoids the tripling, looks like a beast |
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