GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1235
I won't be surprised if two days from now we're treated to a big rematch between SotC and MGS3. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
SOTC one of the games most deserving of winning the whole thing. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
SotC is losing. MGS hasn't looked so terrible that it wouldn't get 60% on RDR (I would take Earthbound over RDR in a heartbeat). --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Truly, these are halcyon days I'm agnostic on whatever the explanation is, I'm just more inclined to believe almost anything - anything at all - than I am the proposition that Skyrim = Oblivion. Well, okay, maybe Oblivion > Skyrim would be worse, but you get what I'm driving at --- Goddamn Ocarina of Time |
So
how come FFVII gets a remake trailer two days before it's big match but
Pokemon big match is two days before a big reveal in CoroCoro? (Which
can be just movie news, but maybe a new game reveal too) --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
So how come FFVII gets a remake trailer two days before it's big match but Pokemon big match is two days before a big reveal in CoroCoro? (Which can be just movie news, but maybe a new game reveal too) Because Super Mario Sunshine came out on the day of Mario vs. Cloud in 2002. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
FFVII's big match isn't until round 5, silly. --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
I wonder if Europeans, confronted with two games they don't care about at all, just click the one with the word MARIO in it? --- Christopher Christopher Christopher Christopher |
This
will be what pushes FFVII to be the champion! I swear - if FFVII
manages to win it all, I will be so excited that I will eat a copy of
the game!! --- Yay - Raytan is the guru champion of awesomeness. |
This
contest has been like a dream ever since that the start of that FFX
match. I was still a little nervous going into it, then I voted and saw
CT at 67%......I almost don't want the Melee match to arrive, this new
contest reality where CT is a top tier game with OOT feels too good to
be true. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
I
also think the SSBM match is the time of true verification for CT. If
Melee breaks 45%+ outside of something like a large rally I think we
have to write off its dreams of being #1. If it can put up a reasonably
punishing performance, though, I'll put it in the clear - something like
FF7 surprising against it I'd put on FF7's strength, not CT's weakness. --- Goddamn Ocarina of Time |
LinkMarioSamus posted... SOTC one of the games most deserving of winning the whole thing. |
Yes it is! --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
FF7 is going to be an action RPG whaaaaat!? Blah. Don't know if it matters for contest purposes but I'm personally disappointed. I assume no world map, but didn't expect an action RPG. I hope you can at least switch to other characters. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Stop quoting LMS. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
creativename posted...
You can play as everybody, seemingly. It seems like it still has some menu-based commands, so it's tough to say on what spectrum of the action RPG style it is. Given it's Nomura, something in the realm of KH wouldn't be surprising. Looks nice, though. http://abload.de/img/23177764389_b524a2ebak5xfk.jpg --- satoru iwata |
It looked like KH where you can switch to other characters --- Not changing this sig until the Bengals, Bills, Lions and Colt McCoy win the Super Bowl (10/10/10) ~User of the Year 2015~ |
I support Square putting in Link as a super hard bonus boss fight. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
creativename posted... FF7 is going to be an action RPG whaaaaat!? A new trailer was just shown earlier today showing some of the combat in the game: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UWcBhdYlow --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
red sox 777 posted... I support Square putting in Link as a super hard bonus boss fight. I'm fine with Cloud being able to beat Link any time he wants, too, yeah. Game looks great though. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
MGS3 sadly aint getting past this round. --- My old signature was really outdated. I haven't thought of a proper new one yet. |
ctesjbuvf posted... MGS3 sadly aint getting past this round. Not sadly. ME2 is GOAT But ME2 vs SOTC....damn thats hard for me. Have to with my heart over my head in that one so SOTC wins |
-LusterSoldier- posted... creativename posted...FF7 is going to be an action RPG whaaaaat!? Yeah that's how I found out. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
I still favor MGS3. RE4 vs. SMRPG is a toss up though. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
LMS posted in the last stats topic... ME2 shall not take out the best Metal Gear. LMS's question to Ulti went unanswered in the last topic. --- "In those dreams, I loved one woman, no matter the day, no matter the era. That did not change, nor did her name." - Fei |
unless we get ME2 vs. SOTC as a bonus match you won't have to worry about that SOTC isn't beating MGS1 --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
LeonhartFour posted... SOTC isn't beating MGS1 Make that your sig --- Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses |
No reason in particular. Well, there's the fact that that gif shows my college getting embarassed. --- Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses |
Yoooooooooooo. Even if you're right, I have to act like you're not, so come over here and fight. --- Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses |
LeonhartFour posted... unless we get ME2 vs. SOTC as a bonus match you won't have to worry about that Another great LH prediction. Maybe you'll get one right this contest! --- FFVII Remake >>>> Original. Deal With it. |
Hope
we get MGS/MGS3 for some fun intra-series dynamics there, but if
there's to be a spoiler I'd bet on ME2 over SotC. Don't see MGS1 failing
to break 60% on RDR. --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
So
someone remind why we only brought the Starcraft and ME2 rallies up to
defend MGS3's performance, but fail to mention that those same voters
were almost definitely picking MGS1 over Earthbound, and RDR over SotC. --- Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses (edited 12/5/2015 2:17:55 PM)report |
Januzaj_Dragon posted... LeonhartFour posted...unless we get ME2 vs. SOTC as a bonus match you won't have to worry about that Becuase it's not like Leonhart has been on the leaderboard for a decent bit of the contest or anything. --- My old signature was really outdated. I haven't thought of a proper new one yet. |
creativename posted... I still favor MGS3. Hm, I have it the other way around. --- My old signature was really outdated. I haven't thought of a proper new one yet. |
Januzaj_Dragon posted... Another great LH prediction. Maybe you'll get one right this contest! *points to Analysis Crew scoreboard* I hesitate to do the "and how many points does your bracket have" thing so I'll settle for this I guess I can also requote this post in a few hours when MGS1 is winning or something --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif (edited 12/5/2015 2:32:38 PM)report |
MechanicalWall posted... So someone remind why we only brought the Starcraft and ME2 rallies up to defend MGS3's performance, but fail to mention that those same voters were almost definitely picking MGS1 over Earthbound, and RDR over SotC. I doubt it had a huge effect in one direction or the other for MGS1/EarthBound. RDR may have overperformed a bit, sure, but SOTC still wasn't doing that great before the rally kicked in. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
What
were the percentages for those matches expected to be without rallies? I
can't remember if anyone actually tried to work it out like we do for
Undertale match days. --- No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585. Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest! |
Hard
to say because it's hard to quantify how many extra votes we got. It
wasn't that significant though because the vote totals weren't really
any higher than we've seen in other matches. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
I
can't see how it didn't have an almost equivalent effect on MGS1 vs.
Earthbound; the people coming over to vote for either SC or ME2 have
probably at least heard of MGS, which is way more than I would say about
Earthbound. Regardless, I don't see why Earthbound > RDR would be an 'obvious' pick. Using GTAV vs. Mario RPG as a frame of reference for that match (Modern Rockstar game vs. SNES RPG), GTAV got about 43% of Mario RPG. I don't think Earthbound is as anywhere near as good as Mario RPG, while I would argue that RDR seems to get a lot more respect than any GTA game, and I think it could beat San Andreas and GTAV pretty comfortably. Factoring all that in, I think RDR might be able to take Earthbound in a close match. Add that to rallies that made SotC underpreform, and MGS vs. SotC is still a debatable match, --- Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses |
The
primary basis for Earthbound > RDR is their round 1 matches. RDR got
around the same percentage on Bayonetta 2 that Earthbound got on The
Borderlands. Bayonetta 2 being a Wii U exclusive, that's seen as the much weaker game. Maybe a bit unfair, since fans of the first probably voted for Bayo 2. --- Any sound can shake the air. My voice shakes the heart! -Sho Minamimoto |
Evillordexdeath posted... Maybe a bit unfair, since fans of the first probably voted for Bayo 2. That's what I figured. And I've never seen any site with as much fervent praise for Bayonetta as GameFaqs. Besides, spectacle fighters seem to be this site's style more than a 'loot and shoot' game; despite the LOLWiiU sentiment here, and taking the series' pedigree in mind, I might still take Bayonetta in a close match against Borderlands, or at least keep it extremely close. And RDR did a bit better than Earthbound, too: 64% vs. %59. That's a decent amount of room to squeeze into. --- Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses |
The
original Bayonetta probably wasn't that strong either, but "franchise
voting" doesn't work as cleanly as you guys are claiming or every game
from the same series would be the same strength. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Considering Bayonetta 2 literally came with the first game, though... --- Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses |
If you guys think mgs3 will win youve got another thing coming. I will rally for me2 hard. Harder than i f*** my girlfriend when shes ovulating. --- http://k09.kn3.net/1256263BF.gif |
Yuri_LowelI posted... If you guys think mgs3 will win youve got another thing coming. haven't you been saying this literally all contest to literally zero noticeable effect? |
Reg posted... haven't you been saying this literally all contest to literally zero noticeable effect? the joke is that he doesn't have a girlfriend --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
