Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1355
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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1355-east-division-semifinal-cloud-strife-vs-bowser We still didn't believe in Cloud quite yet even with this result! ~*creativename's contest site*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/ ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analyses*~ https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Main_Page ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Closest Wire-To-Wire Matches*~ https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Closest_Wire-to-Wire_Matches ~*All-Time Guru List*~ https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/All_Time_Guru_Rankings ~*Most Surprising Results*~ https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Most_Surprising_Results ~*Contest Histories*~ https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's extrapolated percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA |
Game of the Decade 2 X-Stats Division 1 The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild – 50.00% Final Fantasy XV – 19.76% Hollow Knight – 19.59% Halo: Reach – 15.14% The Outer Worlds – 14.98% Tales of Berseria – 14.57% Life is Strange – 13.28% What Remains of Edith Finch – 10.02% Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age – 50.00% Monster Hunter: World – 46.72% Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice – 41.30% Bravely Default: Flying Fairy – 39.29% Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch – 34.22% Bastion – 28.09% The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series – 26.83% The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky SC – 19.33% Division 2 Mass Effect 2 – 50.00% Horizon Zero Dawn – 44.88% Borderlands 2 – 40.32% Resident Evil 7: biohazard – 37.06% Fallout 4 – 33.12% Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night – 32.54% VVVVVV – 18.73% Fortnite – 17.12% Resident Evil 2 – 50.00% Bloodborne – 49.84% DOOM – 42.43% Fire Emblem: Awakening – 41.97% Deus Ex: Human Revolution – 31.26% Call of Duty: Black Ops – 19.41% Danganronpa 2: Goodbye Despair – 16.87% INSIDE – 11.83% Division 3 Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 50.00% Spider-Man – 36.39% The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds – 35.94% Minecraft – 30.82% Bayonetta – 26.24% Dead Space 2 – 21.88% Tekken 7 – 17.02% Dota 2 – 14.97% Super Mario Odyssey – 50.00% Devil May Cry 5 – 28.69% Shovel Knight – 27.19% Octopath Traveler – 26.99% Undertale – 25.22% Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze – 24.44% Dragon’s Dogma – 19.36% Mortal Kombat 11 – 14.03% Division 4 Persona 4 Golden – 50.00% Red Dead Redemption – 49.17% Grand Theft Auto V – 48.93% Cuphead – 38.89% XCOM 2 – 24.67% FTL: Faster Than Light – 22.23% Ghost Trick: Phantom Detective – 20.78% Baba Is You – 20.29% Xenoblade Chronicles – 50.00% Fire Emblem: Three Houses – 40.36% Ori and the Blind Forest – 30.48% Dragon Age: Inquisition – 29.32% South Park: The Stick of Truth – 26.91% Overwatch – 26.68% Death Stranding – 23.53% Splatoon 2 – 21.57% Division 5 The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt – 50.00% Super Mario Galaxy 2 – 39.40% Stardew Valley – 28.30% Mass Effect 3 – 21.60% Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty – 17.01% Destiny – 16.32% Assassin’s Creed Odyssey – 15.93% Return of the Obra Dinn – 10.05% God of War – 50.00% Fallout: New Vegas – 44.73% Dark Souls III – 41.19% Nioh – 25.54% Dishonored – 24.77% The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth – 22.20% The Stanley Parable – 18.43% The Talos Principle – 15.08% Division 6 Persona 5 – 50.00% Sonic Mania – 32.11% Assassin’s Creed IV: Black Flag – 28.94% Sid Meier’s Civilization V – 25.21% Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA – 23.93% Super Meat Boy – 22.58% Heavy Rain – 21.71% Slay the Spire – 14.02% Portal 2 – 50.00% Red Dead Redemption 2 – 46.52% Animal Crossing: New Leaf – 39.44% Kingdom Hearts III – 37.64% Tomb Raider – 34.71% Street Fighter V – 26.41% Disco Elysium – 24.04% Dying Light – 17.31% Division 7 Dark Souls – 50.00% Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain – 36.71% Yakuza 0 – 31.39% Rocket League – 22.66% Dragon Ball FighterZ – 21.91% Dead Cells – 20.18% Hotline Miami – 17.01% The Witness – 14.19% The Last of Us – 50.00% Batman: Arkham City – 44.76% Xenoblade Chronicles 2 – 40.77% Diablo III – 36.72% BioShock Infinite – 35.97% Terraria – 23.26% Zero Escape: Virtue’s Last Reward – 22.76% Crusader Kings II – 18.15% Division 8 The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim – 50.00% Mario Kart 8 – 39.10% Uncharted 4: A Thief’s End – 32.18% Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn – 31.00% Journey – 25.02% Crypt of the NecroDancer – 17.65% Fate/Grand Order – 16.91% Subnautica – 16.00% Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver Version – 50.00% NieR: Automata – 48.13% Bayonetta 2 – 30.41% Divinity: Original Sin II – 30.10% Rayman Legends – 28.03% Celeste – 27.78% Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft – 18.53% Night in the Woods – 18.04% |
I don't know if enough users will submit something to get useful data but I made a topic to collect Second Chance entries: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78633539 Link isn't the only one who kicks ass. Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Contest! |
I
love how the only two games that are last place in their lists and have
more than 20% are the two Division 4 games (Splatoon and Baba is You). I also think Splatoon might have business being this high but Baba is You definitely doesn't. Xenoblade vs P4 is going to be murder. |
Thanks for the stats, Leon. I used them during my second chance entries. Come watch me on Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/gameryogi |
I
remember some idle discussion back at the start of Round 2 about Rayman
being the game that killed the final zero bracket. However, there's
currently no bracket with less than 3 points, meaning that it was
actually either HGSS or Nier that killed the final zero bracket - most
likely Nier, but it's possible that the final zero bracket has more than
3 points now. I'm not sure if that means the last zero was just a
cursed favorites bracket or if someone who called every other
first-round winner correctly somehow thought Bayo 2 would pull it off
over Nier (and also that Nier was least likely to advance from its
fourpack), but there you have it. "I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do." You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you! (edited 4/27/2020 6:56:11 PM) |
Do incomplete bracket still show up on the stats page? I know they did for a while but I don't recall if it ever stopped. Link isn't the only one who kicks ass. Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Contest! |
Team Rocket Elite posted... Didn't we lose voters after the break last time and never fully recovered? Although that probably won't push things below 16000. Yeah, we took a slight hit to our vote totals in the previous contest after the break. Character Battles have generally not shown an increase in vote totals as you progress to the later rounds of the contest, with the exception of 2002 and 2003/2007 to a lesser extent. This is different from Games Contests as vote totals do tend to show a clear increase once you get past round 1 as the weakest games are eliminated and you are left with games that have better playrates, so the casual voters are more likely to vote in the later round matches. Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ! |
My predications for 2nd bracket division finals only for now BOTW 74% Me2 52% Smash bros 52% Xenoblade 56% Witcher 3 60 % Persona 5 57% Dark Souls 55% Skyrim 53% |
Do we think SMG2 loses to ME1 again? I'm thinking probably not. |
pjbasis posted... Do we think SMG2 loses to ME1 again? I'm thinking probably not.No way. I don't think SMG2 has changed that much (maybe a minor boost from Nintendo being in a better spot right now), but Mass Effect has definitely seen better days, and I'd guess that being named "Mass Effect" means it can function as a proxy for the entire series. Agent Triple Zero at your service! This line reserved for the true greatone, the 2020 Guru contest winner. |
ZeldaTPLink posted... I love how the only two games that are last place in their lists and have more than 20% are the two Division 4 games (Splatoon and Baba is You). I just think GTAV is the perfect opponent for Baba is You honestly. GTAV is probably not capable of delivering a blowout to anything unless it's something we heavily antivote, because it gets antivoted to some extend here. Baba is You is a completely different game, which is clear from the match picture too, so it probably got a good share of "Uh, GTA... " votes. Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to Advokaiser, the winner of the Character Battle X guru contest. |
pjbasis posted... Do we think SMG2 loses to ME1 again? I'm thinking probably not. I think it wins SuperNiceChao about to win the Oracle 2020! TsunamiXXVIII and me will destroy all you noobs |
Persona 5 vs Smash Ultimate, if they fought, who you got? I'd take Smash Ultimate with 52% SuperNiceChao about to win the Oracle 2020! TsunamiXXVIII and me will destroy all you noobs |
Fun with numbers: If you set Three Houses = Red Dead Redemption 2015 and assume that Xenoblade didn't SFF it, 2020 Xenoblade gets about 61% on 2015 Xenoblade. Assuming a constant MGS5, 2020 Dark Souls gets about 59% on 2015 Dark Souls. If you account for the rally and assume Bloodborne gets about 55% on Awakening this year, then 2020 Bloodborne gets about 58.5% on 2015 Bloodborne. The Last of Us, despite poor Round 1/2 showings, did slightly better against Arkham City than 2015 projections, implying it hasn't dropped in strength. It's Reyn Time. |
Will anyone make a prediction for the 2nd chance? Weill be there a topic for that? So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing? Nice job Hylian Knight 3, you were better than me in the Guru Contest! |
ctesjbuvf posted... I just think GTAV is the perfect opponent for Baba is You honestly. GTAV is probably not capable of delivering a blowout to anything unless it's something we heavily antivote, because it gets antivoted to some extend here. Baba is You is a completely different game, which is clear from the match picture too, so it probably got a good share of "Uh, GTA... " votes.Honestly, I think we overrate the s*** how much GTA gets hated on. The games are honestly decent midcarders at worst, and are a long way from losing to the games that GameFAQs really thinks low of, like Call of Duty and its ilk. It's just that GTA has had a few unfortunate moments that it won't really live down, like the Golden Sun or Ness results. Also, we have way more Character Battle results to draw from, and no one really cares about Vercetti and Niko, especially with their games not in recent memory any more. Agent Triple Zero at your service! This line reserved for the true greatone, the 2020 Guru contest winner. |
You
can easily be anti-voted without being anywhere close to losing to the
likes of Call of Duty. Link is always antivoted to some extend and is
never in danger of losing to anything period. But it takes a very little
amount of antivoting to prevent you from scoring high percentages, even
if you'll win all the matches you're supposed to without. And it's not even necessairly hate! When you're forced to vote in all matches, but don't care about GTAV vs. Baba is You, then Baba is You standing out as much as it does and not being in any position to actually to threaten the victory added up to that a good chunk of our site probably couldn't care less about it, then it'll show in such a match. Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to Advokaiser, the winner of the Character Battle X guru contest. |
Rockstar
games have like a 1-9 record in debatable matches. Golden Sun is the
most infamous because the stars topic hates Golden Sun but there's
plenty of others, like GTA4 losing to Pokemon Emerald and GTA losing to
Warcraft in the series contest. It's Reyn Time. (edited 4/28/2020 1:09:39 AM) |
Now
now, there's both DK and Kefka. It's got at least two debatable
victories! Also, I guess Vice City in 2008 defeated Metroid Prime in a
four way in a two PS2 vs. two GC match of f***ery. Agent Triple Zero at your service! This line reserved for the true greatone, the 2020 Guru contest winner. (edited 4/28/2020 1:30:34 AM) |
I
was referring solely to Rockstar video games, and Vice City LFFing past
Metroid Prime is the '1' in that record. If you include characters,
Tommy Vercetti on his own has more clutch moments than the rest of his
entire parent company's contest history. It's Reyn Time. |
And
then even in GOTD Metroid Prime looked good for a 60-40 win over Vice
City, while the x-stats had the KH/VC ratio staying about the same.
Come to think of it, Paper Mario has also performed FAR better in its
other two contest appearances than it did in '09. Maybe in 4-ways the newer Nintendo games were hurting each other spectacularly? Would explain how MGS4 pulled it out against Brawl and TP in Round 4. Yeah I think it's a combination of that and GTA/KH being much better-suited to fourways. "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
SuperNiceDog posted... Persona 5 vs Smash Ultimate, if they fought, who you got? If persona had come out on switch id absolutely take it over smash. but yeah thats about right also if youre taking smash with only 52 do yiu take witcher to beat smash? |
ctesjbuvf posted... I just think GTAV is the perfect opponent for Baba is You honestly. GTAV is probably not capable of delivering a blowout to anything unless it's something we heavily antivote, because it gets antivoted to some extend here. Baba is You is a completely different game, which is clear from the match picture too, so it probably got a good share of "Uh, GTA... " votes. But GTA did deliver a respectable blowout on Baba. It's just that P4 barely edged it and now a game that can't quadruple anything is in division finals. |
I think Baba is You is quite a bit weaker than the stats currently indicate. Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to Advokaiser, the winner of the Character Battle X guru contest. |
So,
looking at 2015 stats, Pokemon GSC is supposed to get 73.69% on
Bayonetta 2. In this contest, it gets 69.59%. Which suggests the remake
is a bit weaker than the original, just not weaker enough to let Nier
make the kill. This is, of course, assuming a constant Bayonetta, which I think is fairly reasonable assumtption since this is a WiiU game, but who knows if Bayo didn't get benefitted by the post-2017 global nintendo boost. Then again, that boost should have also affected Pokemon so... yeah. (edited 4/28/2020 6:29:03 AM) |
Bayonetta
2 has been released on Switch since then on top of being added to
Smash, so I think it's very likely the game is stronger now. Mario Kart 8 looking this much better makes me more certain too. Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to Advokaiser, the winner of the Character Battle X guru contest. (edited 4/28/2020 6:28:12 AM) |
Oh I forgot about that. So it's very likely GSC is just as strong as HGSS. |
I dunno that I'd go that far either! |
NieR/Bayonetta SFF has been suggested before. Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to Advokaiser, the winner of the Character Battle X guru contest. |
LeonhartFour posted... I dunno that I'd go that far either! Yeah I'm doing stats here and it's a big range between "bayo20 = bayo15" and "gsc15 = HGSS20". FIguring out where to pick in that range is tricky. |
wait...is
the general consensus that GSC was stronger or weaker than 2015 Skyrim?
the stats are all messed up due to undertale and melee stomping
everything with rallies. |
Yuri_LowelI posted... My predications for 2nd bracket division finals only for now Your numbers are shockingly close to my gut picks, which I'm not sure what that means considering I never do any of the Oracle stuff. "That was unnecessarily dramatic". - NY Mets motto (courtesy of InnerTubeHero) |
pjbasis posted... Do we think SMG2 loses to ME1 again? I'm thinking probably not.it lost to SMG1. Galaxy 2 would easily lose against mass effect considering it's weaker than galaxy 1 |
Obviously The World Ends with You is weaker than Rayman Legends and Celeste. Which I have a REALLY hard time buying. Just calling it Nier/Bayonetta SFF and moving on. "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
who wants votals? bet you didn't see Fallout NV/Dark Souls 3 being the highest votal match so far.  xyzzy (edited 4/28/2020 8:41:07 AM) |
Pretty sure both sides were rallying, so I guess we know what the most effective rallies were! |
RE2/Bloodborne was robbed of its chance to be #1 on this graph. Advokaiser picked Cloud in Guru and rained on my bracket. At least I finished 20th overall! |
Yuri_LowelI posted... My predications for 2nd bracket division finals only for now Wow. Not much different from mine, even if I've got 1 or 2 results flipped. Last finished: Big Adventure of Owata's Life (PC), Blasteroids (ARC), Asteroids (Atari 8 Bit), Space Invaders (NEC PC-98). |
Is there any possibility for an SFF/rSFF match at Witcher/Skyrim? It's an honor being part of Board 8's community. |
Advokaiser posted... Is there any possibility for an SFF/rSFF match at Witcher/Skyrim? We've seen what Witcher did to ME3 and AC:O, so definitely possible Witcher 3 SFFs Skyrim. congrats to BKSheikah the BYIG guru |
Yah
I strongly suspect that if Skyrim faces Witcher in the semis, Witcher
will mop the floor with it harder than any of the games in its preceding
three matches If you're
only on this board to whine about "SJWs", please redirect whatever you
type on to the nearest trash can. And hop in after it. |
Advokaiser posted... Is there any possibility for an SFF/rSFF match at Witcher/Skyrim? Not sure. They seem to be different ways to tackle a WRPG. I do hope we get that match, as it seems the most interesting combination. Last finished: Big Adventure of Owata's Life (PC), Blasteroids (ARC), Asteroids (Atari 8 Bit), Space Invaders (NEC PC-98). |
I
don't think so myself. Yeah the are WRPG and open world too. BUT
Witcher 3 is much more defined with the main character and the main
cast. In Skyrim no character matters. So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing? Nice job Hylian Knight 3, you were better than me in the Guru Contest! |
deeewooh posted... it lost to SMG1. Galaxy 2 would easily lose against mass effect considering it's weaker than galaxy 1https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/(6)Super_Mario_Galaxy_2_vs_(11)Mass_Effect_2015 It was Galaxy 2 vs. Mass Effect 1. Agent Triple Zero at your service! This line reserved for the true greatone, the 2020 Guru contest winner. |
Isn't Galaxy 2 the 2nd best Mario game of the previous decade though? So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing? Nice job Hylian Knight 3, you were better than me in the Guru Contest! |
Safer_777 posted... Isn't Galaxy 2 the 2nd best Mario game of the previous decade though? I mean, what's its competition for 2nd strongest? Mario Kart 8, I guess! |
_SecretSquirrel posted... https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/(6)Super_Mario_Galaxy_2_vs_(11)Mass_Effect_2015 2015 was a very low point for Nintendo though. I could see it flipping in SMG2's favor in 2020. "Much like the pill bug, I too must continue to move forward." -Heropon Riki (paraphrased) |
I would expect Galaxy 2 to win that today due to a confluence of factors, but I don't think it would be a blowout. |
_SecretSquirrel posted... https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/(6)Super_Mario_Galaxy_2_vs_(11)Mass_Effect_2015My writing ability has improved so much over ~20 years. My old stuff is just embarrassing compared to recent work. Mass Effect 1 deserves all of my love. Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest http://www.twitch.tv/ultimaterializerx ; https://imgur.com/dsnL40n |
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