Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1355

Yeah, Melee (and 64, if we ever get to see it in a contest, Game of the 90s please) are always going to be the nostalgic Smash titles, and the recent one is going to be the strong current one. Brawl and Wii U/3DS are just going to be in limbo, and we may never see them again.

Now I am interested to see what happens to Ultimate when the next Smash title hits, especially if it pairs down the character selection. I could see Ultimate in a position where it doesn't become obsolete like Brawl and Wii U/3DS, and maybe the nostalgia factor hits it before we know it.

remember when the original Smash Bros. got subbed out for SoulCalibur in 2009?

FF7 Remake has had a significantly better reception than it could have. It was always going to have that 10% of people that hated it but on the whole, the reception I've seen outside of the crazies has been overwhelmingly positive. Granted, GameFAQs has a lot of those crazies.

The only thing that keeps Brawl from being obsolete is Subspace Emissary, from which I've seen lots of praise and hate at the same time.

LeonhartFour posted...

remember when the original Smash Bros. got subbed out for SoulCalibur in 2009?

Every time I get reminded of the Add/Remove selections, I get mad, mostly because the games Added in were really good ideas, but in the absolute wrong spots, and at the expense of games that still should have been there.

DKC2 being placed in a position where it got Rareware and Nintendo SFFed was borderline criminal. Smash Bros 64 getting removed was pitiful. Subbing in Fire Emblem 7 in a match with Melee was just painful.

KamikazePotato posted...

FF7 Remake has had a significantly better reception than it could have. It was always going to have that 10% of people that hated it but on the whole, the reception I've seen outside of the crazies has been overwhelmingly positive. Granted, GameFAQs has a lot of those crazies.

I really, truly hope this is the case, for SquareEnix's and Final Fantasy's sake.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Every time I get reminded of the Add/Remove selections, I get mad, mostly because the games Added in were really good ideas, but in the absolute wrong spots, and at the expense of games that still should have been there.

DKC2 being placed in a position where it got Rareware and Nintendo SFFed was borderline criminal. Smash Bros 64 getting removed was pitiful. Subbing in Fire Emblem 7 in a match with Melee was just painful.

Sometimes I feel like my Add/Remove (Mortal Kombat II for Super Street Fighter II Turbo) was the only good one...!

LeonhartFour posted...

Sometimes I feel like my Add/Remove (Mortal Kombat II for Super Street Fighter II Turbo) was the only good one...!

Speaking of which...

Have we ever had a direct match between Mortal Kombat and Street Fighter?

Advokaiser posted...

Speaking of which...

Have we ever had a direct match between Mortal Kombat and Street Fighter?

Nope, never. Not even in Character Battles.

LeonhartFour posted...

Sometimes I feel like my Add/Remove (Mortal Kombat II for Super Street Fighter II Turbo) was the only good one...!

On one hand, I feel like Super Street Fight II Turbo was more likely to give Sonic 2 a fight than Mortal Kombat 2.

On the other hand, we basically already had that match in the bracket with Sonic 1 against Street Fighter 2 sans the colon cancer, so why do it again when he can diversify the bracket in a way that makes sense.

Yeah, that was my thinking. SSF2T might have actually been stronger (heck, it could've been stronger than the original SF2!), but Mortal Kombat deserved representation over two different versions of the same game.

LeonhartFour posted...

Nope, never. Not even in Character Battles.

Wow.

I never thought there would be a missing match more necessary than Mario vs. Sonic!

LeonhartFour posted...

Yeah, that was my thinking. SSF2T might have actually been stronger (heck, it could've been stronger than the original SF2!), but Mortal Kombat deserved representation over two different versions of the same game.

If anything, we should have found something a bit stronger to replace Shining Force II, as there had to be something from 92-94 that could have given MK a fight for second place.

Anyway, time for some more fun with X-Stats!

Xenoblade = Witcher 3:

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt – 50.00%
Xenoblade Chronicles - 50.00%
Fire Emblem: Three Houses - 40.36%
Super Mario Galaxy 2 – 39.40%
Ori and the Blind Forest - 30.48%
Dragon Age: Inquisition - 29.32%
Stardew Valley – 28.30%
South Park: The Stick of Truth - 26.91%
Overwatch - 26.68%
Death Stranding - 23.53%
Mass Effect 3 – 21.60%
Splatoon 2 - 21.57%
Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty – 17.01%
Destiny – 16.32%
Assassin’s Creed Odyssey – 15.93%
Return of the Obra Dinn – 10.05%

Three Houses doubles Awakening:

Xenoblade Chronicles – 50.00%
Fire Emblem: Three Houses – 40.36%
Resident Evil 2 - 32.05%
Bloodborne - 31.95%
Ori and the Blind Forest – 30.48%
Dragon Age: Inquisition – 29.32%
DOOM - 27.20%
South Park: The Stick of Truth – 26.91%
Fire Emblem: Awakening - 26.90%
Overwatch – 26.68%
Death Stranding – 23.53%
Splatoon 2 – 21.57%
Deus Ex: Human Revolution - 20.04%
Call of Duty: Black Ops - 12.44%
Danganronpa 2: Goodbye Despair - 10.81%
INSIDE - 7.58%

Not sure why someone wanted that one, but there you go...!

Did you ever do Persona 5 = Witcher 3?

Not sure, but it's pretty easy to compare stats between games at the top of their eightpacks! Just look at them side by side because the numbers will be the same and don't need to be converted!

But here you go anyway!

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt – 50.00%
Persona 5 - 50.00%
Super Mario Galaxy 2 – 39.40%
Sonic Mania - 32.11%
Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag - 28.94%
Stardew Valley – 28.30%
Sid Meier's Civilization V - 25.21%
Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA - 23.93%
Super Meat Boy - 22.58%
Heavy Rain - 21.71%
Mass Effect 3 – 21.60%
Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty – 17.01%
Destiny – 16.32%
Assassin’s Creed Odyssey – 15.93%
Slay the Spire - 14.02%
Return of the Obra Dinn – 10.05%

LeonhartFour posted...

Not sure, but it's pretty easy to compare stats between games at the top of their eightpacks! Just look at them side by side because the numbers will be the same and don't need to be converted!

But here you go anyway!

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt – 50.00%
Persona 5 - 50.00%
Super Mario Galaxy 2 – 39.40%
Sonic Mania - 32.11%
Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag - 28.94%
Stardew Valley – 28.30%
Sid Meier's Civilization V - 25.21%
Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA - 23.93%
Super Meat Boy - 22.58%
Heavy Rain - 21.71%
Mass Effect 3 – 21.60%
Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty – 17.01%
Destiny – 16.32%
Assassin’s Creed Odyssey – 15.93%
Slay the Spire - 14.02%
Return of the Obra Dinn – 10.05%

It doesn't look... too crazy.

it doesn't look right to me but that's partly because Witcher 3 destroyed ME3 so hard

I wouldn't take anything from Civ V down over ME3 directly

AC4 and Stardew Valley would be a bit iffier

Yeah, I am really taking the Persona 5 > Witcher 3 upset for second chance really seriously, because that's an upset with knock on potential considering I think both games can knock down Skyrim at this point.

I also have a hard time picturing Persona 5 going 60/40 on Galaxy 2, and this is coming from someone who doesn't exactly hold Galaxy 2's contest strength in high regard!

I doubt FF7R would be 2d strongest. Well maybe, but I'd be cautious in giving it that title. I'd put it in that disputed warzone that is Witcher/Skyrim/Dark Souls. It'd also be at its strongest NOW, considering hype is still strong and people looking forward to a true Zelda/FF rematch, but I bet it would fall off during the next several years.

Nintendogs posted...

There was nothing "most creatively bankrupt" in games like Super Mario 3D World, Super Mario Maker, Yoshi's Woolly World, Pokken Tournament, Splatoon and several others. Heck, Smash 4 had better extra modes and features than Smash Ultimate did, at least at launch. The Wii U is criminally underrated.

The only thing creatively bankrupt about the Wii U was the marketing department, the games were fine. The Switch's launch been succesful when it consisted in large part of Wii U games confirmed that.

LeonhartFour posted...

Destiny – 16.32%
Assassin’s Creed Odyssey – 15.93%

This sure looks off.

Advokaiser posted...

This sure looks off.

It can't be. They were both in Division 5.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

It can't be. They were both in Division 5.

Well, that confirms SFF then, since there's no way I'd take Destiny over AC: Odyssey.

Advokaiser posted...

Wow.

I never thought there would be a missing match more necessary than Mario vs. Sonic!

I'd rather have had Mario vs. Sonic.

So I'm doing math here and I've realized something scary.

If you assume constant Fallout New Vegas and constant MGSV from 2015, God of War is projected to get 50,9% on Dark Souls.

Now, you could say Fallout is not guaranteed to be constant, but from what I heard all contest, people seem to hold it in high regard much more than MGSV!

Anyone has an objection or is GoW actually that good?

It is extremely good and I can see it barely beating Dark Souls. Too bad they will not face eaach other.

I've thought many times, that it's a huge shame God of War got placed where it did. I'd think it'd make a match if it in some of the other divisions.

I mean, I had GoW beating Witcher 3 for a reason!

I take God of War to win most of these divisions outright.

Hey guys, there's now one more platform that Octopath Traveler is available for

 https://twitter.com/SquareEnix/status/1255183387209293825 (click to expand) 

Google Stadia!

The only divisions GoW could win are the ME2 division and the GTAV division, and both of those are already interesting. On top of that, I don't know that I'd take GoW over either ME2 or Xenoblade.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Anyone has an objection or is GoW actually that good?

As I mentioned in Discord previously, my objection is that New Vegas is overrated in the 2015 stats thanks to the weird way KP adjusted Mario RPG and its path. Specifically, Mario RPG's value looks to be peak bandwagon, yet RE4 (and only RE4, of Mario RPG's opponents) was adjusted upwards to compensate for that bandwagon, without shifting Mario RPG down to a number representative of its natural strength.

New Vegas isn't overrated in the 2015 stats. Everything related to RE4 was adjusted independently of SMRPG because SMRPG was super weird that year.

KamikazePotato posted...

Everything related to RE4 was adjusted independently of SMRPG because SMRPG was super weird that year.

Ok, I stand corrected on that detail, but it doesn't change my overall point. If you take your stats at face value, RE4 fares better against Mario RPG than MGS3, even though MGS3 improved by 3% against a Mario RPG that was bandwagoning even harder than the game RE4 faced. Whatever it is you did exactly with Division 7, I don't really trust it, and every single game in that division looks inflated to me at least.

RE4/SMRPG is the single biggest statistical anomaly of that contest. RE4 has shown itself to be slightly stronger than MGS3 on numerous occasions - there's absolutely no reason for MGS3 (and Oblivion, for that matter) to suddenly be way stronger than RE4. Here's one out of the seven or so cross-references I used when adjusting the stats:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4177-west-division-round-3-metal-gear-solid-3-vs-paper-mario
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6106-best-game-ever-day-14-resident-evil-4-vs-paper-mario

You can make up any argument you want for why the matches played out the way they did. Maybe MGS3 resisted the bandwagon because it had barely edged out MGS1 the prior round and was riding high. Maybe SMRPG sapped RE4's Nintendo support. In the end, it doesn't matter - adjustments needed to be made.

Division 7's entrants in the current contest are, I think, pretty much in line with what most of us expected. Infinite dropped like a rock because people like it way less now. GTAV's number was already questionable (which was openly talked about pre-contest) and it dropped because it's not as highly regarded anymore either. New Vegas is the same because people still like New Vegas.

GTA5's problems actually weren't related to the bandwagon. GTA5 faced SMRPG after Oblivion did and only did a little bit worse. Regardless of whatever shenanigans SMRPG would be up to later. GTA5 looked like it should be about as strong as Oblivion was which was pretty good in GotD1. Things didn't work out like that in the end and it's GTA so no one was really surprised that it didn't.

KamikazePotato posted...

Here's one out of the seven or so cross-references I used when adjusting the stats:

Hmm, that's very interesting, and I also have to admit it's totally possible that MGS3 was running its own bandwagon after its close win over MGS and canceled out Mario RPG's bandwagon.

The upcoming Witcher 3/God of War match should hopefully be telling, since Witcher 3 gets only 55.45% if both Galaxy 2 and New Vegas are static. If Witcher 3 shoots for 60% like I'm expecting, Galaxy 2 boosting a bit from Nintendo's rising fortunes alone won't be an adequate explanation - either New Vegas will have fallen a bit in its own right, or it was overrated to begin with. Actually, when I put it that way, I guess Witcher 3 will have to score an unrealistically high percent to prove my theory, hm.

When all is said and done, I wonder how many games will look static in the end. We've already seen a number of games change dramatically over the last 5 years. Although a lot of that could be bad data in 2015 as well.

I wouldn't take Galaxy 2 over GoW.

But New Vegas being weaker this year wouldn't mean it was overrated in 2015. A lot can change in 5 years.

Heck, MGS3 could legit have beaten RE4 in 2015, too. I don't think it would've beaten MGS1 in previous contests, for instance.

My gut based on the results we've seen so far is that most things from 2015 are either static or have dropped dramatically. There doesn't seem to be much in-between. The only things that look outright stronger are Xenoblade and the From Software games, which means GameFAQs is starting to improve its tastes.

Leonhart4 posted...

Heck, MGS3 could legit have beaten RE4 in 2015, too. I don't think it would've beaten MGS1 in previous contests, for instance.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6161-best-game-ever-day-32-round-3-metal-gear-solid-vs-shadow-of
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4187-west-division-final-metal-gear-solid-3-vs-shadow-of-the

The second match is when Shadow of the Colossus was in full Bandwagon Mode. MGS3 might have been a bit stronger in 2015 but I don't think it was by much - if anything, MGS1 was weaker.

And Witcher 3. Basically every single game I was betting against in my bracket is like 60-40 on their old self over the last 5 years.

Oh, I agree MGS1 dipped at some point. It looked pretty darn good in 2009.

I just think it's possible RE4 dipped a bit, too.

Fallout New Vegas should largely be insulated from the Bethesda backlash that crashed over FO4 and Skyrim, as it's now the golden child for not actually having been developed by Bethesda.

Still, I feel a lot of the games that never got current gen ports are weaker than they were/less strong than they could be. Portal 2, New Vegas, Mass Effect 2, all PS360 games with no PS4/Bone/Switch ports that I feel would strongly have benefited from them.

LeonhartFour posted...

I also have a hard time picturing Persona 5 going 60/40 on Galaxy 2, and this is coming from someone who doesn't exactly hold Galaxy 2's contest strength in high regard!

Thats absurd for P5.

I think P5 beats Galaxy 2 but it would be closer to a 54-46

KamikazePotato posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6161-best-game-ever-day-32-round-3-metal-gear-solid-vs-shadow-of
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4187-west-division-final-metal-gear-solid-3-vs-shadow-of-the

The second match is when Shadow of the Colossus was in full Bandwagon Mode. MGS3 might have been a bit stronger in 2015 but I don't think it was by much - if anything, MGS1 was weaker.

Bandwagon?

SOTC is a legit f***ing game. I would have LOVED to have seen it in this GOTD contest. IT would absolutely obliterate 90% of the field.

It's a legit game, but MGS2 and MGS4 aren't the same strength as MGS3, so that was a bandwagon.

So here's a sidebar. I was wondering why Shulk didn't do better in 2018 despite being in Smash and Xenoblade being on the upswing, and if he would do better nowadays, and then came to the conclusion that Shulk being weaker than the game he came from is actually par for the course. One-off protagonists on GameFAQs generally suck. We attach ourselves to games way more easily than characters. Here's a list of just some of the main characters that are weaker than the games they come from:

-Zidane
-Tidus
-Cecil
-Noctis
-Ramza
-Vyse
-Isaac
-Serge
-Yu Narukami
-Joker
-Modern Kratos
-John Marston
-Kazuma Kiryu
-Terra
-Commander Shepard
-Booker DeWitt
-Lloyd Irving
-Yuri Lowell
-Joel / Ellie
-Gordon Freeman
-Aloy
-Geralt
-Nathan Drake

At this point you're probably going: but wait, KP, what about all those main characters that are super strong? Mega Man is way stronger than any of his individual games! And you're right, but here's the thing: characters like Mega Man and Sonic are legacy characters that have starred and appeared in many games throughout the years. They draw strength from multiple sources. Even Cloud, who has only ever starred in one game, would not be nearly as relevant as he is without Kingdom Hearts and Advent Children and Smash Bros propping him up. Here's a list of some characters that are as strong or stronger than the games they come from, but largely because they've been around for a while:

-Mario
-Mega Man
-Sonic
-Cloud
-Solid Snake
-Samus
-Phoenix Wright
-Dante
-Alucard
-Ike
-Ryu Hayabusa
-KOS-MOS

So after mulling that over, I tried to come up with the main character that is the (relatively) strongest despite having appeared in one game and having minimal exposure across alternate media and...I'm not sure. Crono is the easy answer in terms of pure strength, but Crono the character is still much weaker than Chrono Trigger. Using fodder like Velvet Crowe (who is weak but apparently a good bit stronger than her base game) feels like cheating. Squall WOULD have been the answer before 2018 but he's not the same anymore. I might have settled on 2B before this contest, but Nier Automata is looking like a strong game in its own right.

I think the award to 'most impressively strong non-main character' goes to Auron, though. Aside from a Kingdom Hearts 2 cameo, he's almost no presence since FFX came out, but is significantly stronger than any other character from that game.

Sidebar: Does Vivi qualify as an answer, or do you consider the Black Mage design to mean he's not a one-off character?