Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1355

I considered Vivi but ultimately went with Auron because yeah, the Black Mage design is cheating a little.

I mean, Squall got the KH boost just like Cloud did.

Your post does make it funny to imagine just how weak a 2018 Cloud would've been without Smash and KH though.

Vivi's a pretty great example of character stronger than his game despite being a one-off. I dunno if I would've said Alucard was stronger than his game before the Netflix Castlevania, so having him up there is kinda cheating?

Also consider: Amaterasu and Missile!

Ammy is a decent choice, although Okami is still stronger than she is. Missile might actually be the correct choice for proportional side character strength though. DogFAQs is real.

As far as main characters go, I think I'm settling on 2B. She's probably stronger now than in 2018 and already looked great then. Easily the biggest character breakout success story in recent memory, and possibly the biggest of the entire decade...even if we know why she's so popular.

Some Second Chance thoughts:

Barring anything crazy, a perfect bracket will still be required to win. Even if you get the other 14 matches perfect, I can't see the winner dropping more than 50 points. So in that regard, its the same as if it was the normal bracket we were expecting. This is just functioning as a better first tiebreaker than the number of votes.

With that in mind, the Zelda matches are the most important matches. On most matches, we are likely going to have similar picks. However, in the Zelda matches, we all know it is going to win by a lot, but there is a much wider range of numbers it can finish on. To a lesser extent, that applies to Xenoblade too. P4G/Xenoblade could be close, or a blowout, and then it gets an SFF match.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

Bandwagon?

SOTC is a legit f***ing game. I would have LOVED to have seen it in this GOTD contest. IT would absolutely obliterate 90% of the field.

SOTC definitely had a bandwagon by that point. I've been going over the GOTD x-stats just for the heck of it and it (and by logical extension its eight-pack, though I didn't look at those specifically) is the only game outside of the top quarter of the bracket to have a seemingly inflated value.

KamikazePotato posted...

RE4/SMRPG is the single biggest statistical anomaly of that contest. RE4 has shown itself to be slightly stronger than MGS3 on numerous occasions - there's absolutely no reason for MGS3 (and Oblivion, for that matter) to suddenly be way stronger than RE4. Here's one out of the seven or so cross-references I used when adjusting the stats:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4177-west-division-round-3-metal-gear-solid-3-vs-paper-mario
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6106-best-game-ever-day-14-resident-evil-4-vs-paper-mario

You can make up any argument you want for why the matches played out the way they did. Maybe MGS3 resisted the bandwagon because it had barely edged out MGS1 the prior round and was riding high. Maybe SMRPG sapped RE4's Nintendo support. In the end, it doesn't matter - adjustments needed to be made.

Division 7's entrants in the current contest are, I think, pretty much in line with what most of us expected. Infinite dropped like a rock because people like it way less now. GTAV's number was already questionable (which was openly talked about pre-contest) and it dropped because it's not as highly regarded anymore either. New Vegas is the same because people still like New Vegas.

MGS3 > RE4 in 2015 wouldn't surprise me at all. MGS3 has established itself as the tough act to follow of that series since while RE4 kind of just got older (and potentially got flack for taking the series down a direction that led to ruin). MGS3 was probably just stronger in 2015 than in previous contests. Though maybe I'm putting a bit too much stock into that top 100 list from 2014 where MGS3 ranked 6th, higher than any other post-Ocarina game, but MGS3's general reception even otherwise does kind of suggest SOMETHING.

Yeah, Squall definitely benefited in a major way from KH1 and 2. He arguably has the biggest role of any FF character in those games.

RE2 vs ME2 is giving me such a headache.

Gut says RE2 wins.

Yeah, that one I really don't know.

GoldSlime35 posted...

Some Second Chance thoughts:

Barring anything crazy, a perfect bracket will still be required to win. Even if you get the other 14 matches perfect, I can't see the winner dropping more than 50 points. So in that regard, its the same as if it was the normal bracket we were expecting. This is just functioning as a better first tiebreaker than the number of votes.

With that in mind, the Zelda matches are the most important matches. On most matches, we are likely going to have similar picks. However, in the Zelda matches, we all know it is going to win by a lot, but there is a much wider range of numbers it can finish on. To a lesser extent, that applies to Xenoblade too. P4G/Xenoblade could be close, or a blowout, and then it gets an SFF match.

It's definitely possible to win (or at least finish in the top 6) with a wrong prediction, though I imagine there would have to be at least one or two upsets to better your chances (so not a Witcher 3 > Skyrim semi-final result)

The x-stats in ME2's eightpack hurt my brain. Though it is kind of interesting to note that the ME2/Borderlands 2 ratio is about the same as it was in 2015 through direct extrapolation (even back then both games were in the same division).

I've thought ME2 wins from the start and nothing I've seen has really changed my mind.

I also think ME2 will win the division.

Yeah, ME2 will be going in as the favourite. RE2 did not do enough against Bloodborne while ME2 doesn't look like it dropped to compensate.

Bloodborne isn't exactly the best measurement though, given the rallying and that the match started hours later.

Yeah, I wouldn't take too much from last round's match. There are too many wonky factors that make those measurements unreliable.

More fun with X-Stats!

Super Mario Galaxy 2 = Mario Kart 8:

The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim – 50.00%
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 49.62%
Super Mario Galaxy 2 - 39.10%
Mario Kart 8 – 39.10%
Uncharted 4: A Thief’s End – 32.18%
Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn – 31.00%
Stardew Valley - 28.08%
Journey – 25.02%
Mass Effect 3 - 21.44%
Crypt of the NecroDancer – 17.65%
Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty - 16.88%
Fate/Grand Order – 16.91%
Destiny - 16.20%
Subnautica – 16.00%
Assassin's Creed Odyssey - 15.81%
Return of the Obra Dinn - 9.97%

GoW = TLOU:

God of War – 50.00%
The Last of Us - 50.00%
Batman: Arkham City - 44.76%
Fallout: New Vegas – 44.73%
Dark Souls III – 41.19%
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 40.77%
Diablo III - 36.72%
BioShock Infinite - 35.97%
Nioh – 25.54%
Dishonored – 24.77%
Terraria - 23.26%
Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward - 22.76%
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth – 22.20%
The Stanley Parable – 18.43%
Crusader Kings - 18.15%
The Talos Principle – 15.08%

So if SMG2 is stronger than MK8 I guess that means rip skyrim

pjbasis posted...

So if SMG2 is stronger than MK8 I guess that means rip skyrim

I guess the main question is if you think Stardew Valley can beat Uncharted 4 and/or FFXIV

although the idea of Journey beating Stardew Valley is hard to swallow too so there isn't much margin for Skyrim!

So Spider-Man has to break 60% on Devil May Cry 5 for Smash to beat Mario...which I don't think is really out of the question. Spidey was a much higher-profile release, and evidence does NOT point to Devil May Cry being something this site particularly cares for. It probably just beat Donkey Kong in round 1 off of DK's weakness.

REALLY don't like how my gut pick was DMC > DKC in Round 1 because of Dante doing better against Ganondorf than DK was projected to do (they were both in the same division), but I figured I didn't want to be burned by DMC again.

Even if Spider-Man doesn't do that, I don't think Smash can be ruled out. Those two games are close enough that some hierarchy thing will most likely be there.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

It probably just beat Donkey Kong in round 1 off of DK's weakness.

I'm actually not that sure. Mario Kart 8 having a post-Switch-release boost may have also helped DKC:TP, for whatever little it was worth.

It's a pretty well-liked game.

At this point, I think the only thing that can assure a Smash victory is having a new character announced.

Hey, Leon, can you do some Smash = Odyssey stats? I think those would be really helpful right now.

You can look at them side by side in the second post!

First BOP update:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78633539/938451478

Round 4

Mass Effect 2 - 9
Resident Evil 2 - 3

ME2 is still favoured over RE2.

Super Smash Bros Ultimate - 7
Super Mario Odyssey - 5

SSBU hanging on by a thread.

Xenoblade Chronicles - 12

This is the power of the Monado.

Round 5

Super Smash Bros Ultimate - 7
Super Mario Odyssey - 5

The Monado can only do so much

Elder Scrolls: Skyrim - 7
Dark Souls - 4
Pokemon HeartGold - 1

People still have enough faith in Skyrim to at least get this far.

Round 6

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 7
Elder Scrolls: Skyrim - 2
Dark Souls - 1
Persona 5 - 1
Pokemon HeartGold - 1

More people picking against Witcher 3 than I expected.

Round 7

Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 12

He come to town.

Smash will upset BotW.

More fun with X-Stats!

Dark Souls doubles Dark Souls III:

Dark Souls – 50.00%
God of War - 40.46%
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain – 36.71%
Fallout: New Vegas - 36.20%
Dark Souls III: 33.33%
Yakuza 0 – 31.39%
Rocket League – 22.66%
Dragon Ball FighterZ – 21.91%
Nioh - 20.67%
Dead Cells – 20.18%
Dishonored - 20.04%
Binding of Isaac: Rebirth - 17.96%
Hotline Miami – 17.01%
The Talos Principle - 14.91%
The Witness – 14.19%

Bravely Default = Octopath Traveler:

Super Mario Odyssey – 50.00%
Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age - 34.35%
Monster Hunter: World - 32.10%
Devil May Cry 5 – 28.69%
Sekiro: Shadows Die - 28.37%
Shovel Knight – 27.19%
Bravely Default: Flying Fairy - 26.99%
Octopath Traveler – 26.99%
Undertale – 25.22%
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze – 24.44%
Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch - 23.51%
Dragon’s Dogma – 19.36%
Bastion - 19.30%
The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series - 18.43%
Mortal Kombat 11 – 14.03%
The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky SC - 13.28%

Kingdom Hearts III = Yakuza 0:

Dark Souls – 50.00%
Portal 2 - 41.70%
Red Dead Redemption 2 - 38.80%
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain – 36.71%
Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 32.89%
Kingdom Hearts III - 31.39%
Yakuza 0 – 31.39%
Tomb Raider - 28.95%
Rocket League – 22.66%
Street Fighter V - 22.03%
Dragon Ball FighterZ – 21.91%
Dead Cells – 20.18%
Disco Elysium - 20.05%
Hotline Miami – 17.01%
Dying Light - 14.44%
The Witness – 14.19%

That's all the requests I've gotten so far, so feel free to suggest more!

LeonhartFour posted...

Dark Souls doubles Dark Souls III:

The assumption that they'd be similar cost me everything so that makes sense

LeonhartFour posted...

That's all the requests I've gotten so far, so feel free to suggest more!

INSIDE = Obra Dinn

can i get uhhhh sonic mania = botw

i need this so i can finally sleep peacefully

ZenOfThunder posted...

can i get uhhhh sonic mania = botw

i need this so i can finally sleep peacefully

Persona 5 is going to get 141.33% in the finals.

Keep BD=OT and have BotW triple DQXI.

Pretty boring request, but fun to see a guideline.

Dark Souls doubling Dark Souls III actually looks about right.

Dark Souls/RDR2 is probably 60-40. Yes I think I would take RDR2 over MGSV.

Not entirely on-topic, but I seriously have no interest in trying out MGSV. I'm not usually into open-world games (though I kind of want to rectify that, albeit mostly for the sake of having a game I can sink a lot of time into and because of their explosion in popularity these past few years), and I'm inherently against the nature of prequels. MGS3 is still my favorite MGS, but mostly because of its gameplay and the way the story is presented. I don't think 1 is far behind at all.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Dark Souls doubling Dark Souls III actually looks about right.

Dark Souls/RDR2 is probably 60-40. Yes I think I would take RDR2 over MGSV.

Not entirely on-topic, but I seriously have no interest in trying out MGSV. I'm not usually into open-world games (though I kind of want to rectify that, albeit mostly for the sake of having a game I can sink a lot of time into and because of their explosion in popularity these past few years), and I'm inherently against the nature of prequels. MGS3 is still my favorite MGS, but mostly because of its gameplay and the way the story is presented. I don't think 1 is far behind at all.

Might I recommend you play Ground Zeroes instead, if you haven't already? Ground Zeroes is most of the gameplay fun of MGSV, just wrapped up in a much smaller, tighter map and experience.

I think it took maybe 2 hours max for the main mission. Then there's a bunch of fun side missions that use the same map but mix it up a bit.

Saw on my block list that BT and Yuri got suspended. What did they do?

I'll see about that.

Are we having 2 matches per day for this round, and then 1 match per day for the final rounds?

Round 4 and Round 5 are 2 matches a day. Semifinals and Finals are 1 match per day.

@LusterSoldier Can you track today's poll specifically for infected fellas around the world?

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Persona 5 is going to get 141.33% in the finals.

WOOOOO!

If it makes it to even semis I will be happy.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Saw on my block list that BT and Yuri got suspended. What did they do?

I've been suspended before, it was bad times.

Baba is You vs INSIDE who wins?

SuperNiceDog posted...

Baba is You vs INSIDE who wins?

I'd probably say Baba.

if Baba Is You = INSIDE, RE2 beats P4G with 70.85%

so probably Baba Is You

LeonhartFour posted...

if Baba Is You = INSIDE, RE2 beats P4G with 70.85%

so probably Baba Is You

BABA is YOU YESSSSS.

Ok on tiebreaker, what is the expected final number? @LusterSoldier any estimates?

Still feel like Persona 4 got bandwagoned to victory over GTA. Though that still means GTA fell quite a lot, since it looked clearly stronger than RDR in 2015.

By the way why we have a week off? I mean it is not like this is a physical competition anyways and people want to rest.

Safer_777 posted...

By the way why we have a week off? I mean it is not like this is a physical competition anyways and people want to rest.

To give people time to fill out Second Chance brackets.

And I'm not sure if I agree on not needing to rest tbh.

Picking the % on Zelda vs. ME2/RE2 is so tough.