Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1355

Just put 55/45 on everything non-Zelda and you'll probably be fine. I feel like the key to winning Second Chance is getting Zelda right more than getting the others right.

That's pretty much my strategy (along with making SSBU/SMO > Xenoblade/P4G a bigger win too). I doubt I deviated away from 53-57% on any of those matches.

The hardest match is Persona 5 vs Witcher 3. I mean I know Witcher is the favorite but can Persona 5 actually win?

Right now I have Persona 5 with 51%. Would Persona 5 do better than 60.2% against Mario Galaxy 2? I am not sure..

I think The Witcher has a safe win there. I'd give it at least a 53%.

The most debatable match for me is Smash vs. Mario, followed by Dark Souls vs. Skyrim. Other than that, it's just about predicting the percentages right.

I think Skyrim vs Pokemon and ME2 vs RE2 are pretty dangerous too.

SuperNiceDog posted...

The hardest match is Persona 5 vs Witcher 3. I mean I know Witcher is the favorite but can Persona 5 actually win?

Right now I have Persona 5 with 51%. Would Persona 5 do better than 60.2% against Mario Galaxy 2? I am not sure..

Do you believe in the Sore Thumb Factor?

_SecretSquirrel posted...

INSIDE = Obra Dinn

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt – 50.00%
Resident Evil 2 - 42.48%
Bloodborne - 42.34%
Super Mario Galaxy 2 – 39.40%
DOOM - 36.05%
Fire Emblem: Awakening - 35.66%
Stardew Valley – 28.30%
Deus Ex: Human Revolution - 26.56%
Mass Effect 3 – 21.60%
Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty – 17.01%
Call of Duty: Black Ops - 16.49%
Destiny – 16.32%
Assassin’s Creed Odyssey – 15.93%
Danganronpa 2: Goodbye Despair - 14.33%
Return of the Obra Dinn – 10.05%
INSIDE - 10.05%

ZenOfThunder posted...

can i get uhhhh sonic mania = botw

i need this so i can finally sleep peacefully

Persona 5 – 50.00%
Sonic Mania – 32.11%
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 32.11%
Assassin’s Creed IV: Black Flag – 28.94%
Sid Meier’s Civilization V – 25.21%
Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA – 23.93%
Super Meat Boy – 22.58%
Heavy Rain – 21.71%
Slay the Spire – 14.02%
Final Fantasy XV - 12.69%
Hollow Knight - 12.58%
Halo: Reach - 9.72%
The Outer Worlds - 9.62%
Tales of Berseria - 9.36%
Life Is Strange - 8.53%
What Remains of Edith Finch - 6.43%

tgs2 posted...

Keep BD=OT and have BotW triple DQXI.

Pretty boring request, but fun to see a guideline.

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild – 50.00%
Super Mario Odyssey - 36.39%
Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age - 25.00%
Monster Hunter: World - 23.36%
Devil May Cry 5 - 20.88%
Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice - 20.65%
Shovel Knight - 19.79%
Final Fantasy XV – 19.76%
Bravely Default: Flying Fairy - 19.64%
Octopath Traveler - 19.64%
Hollow Knight – 19.59%
Undertale - 18.35%
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze - 17.79%
Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch - 17.11%
Halo: Reach – 15.14%
The Outer Worlds – 14.98%
Tales of Berseria – 14.57%
Dragon's Dogma - 14.09%
Bastion - 14.05%
The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series - 13.41%
Life is Strange – 13.28%
Mortal Kombat 11 - 10.21%
What Remains of Edith Finch – 10.02%
The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky SC - 9.67%

Feel free to mix and match more than just two opponents if you like! Still got a day left to make the comparisons you want to help your bracket out!

DMC5 = Bayonetta 2 = Bioshock Infinite = Stardew Valley

how about assuming that this poll holds up exactly?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6565-best-of-2016-playstation-4

transience posted...

how about assuming that this poll holds up exactly?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6565-best-of-2016-playstation-4

....Poor Skyrim.

transience posted...

DMC5 = Bayonetta 2 = Bioshock Infinite = Stardew Valley

Here we go

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt – 50.00%
Super Mario Odyssey - 49.32%
Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver Version - 46.53%
NieR: Automata - 44.79%
Super Mario Galaxy 2 – 39.40%
The Last of Us - 39.34%
Batman: Arkham City - 35.22%
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 32.08%
Diablo III - 28.89%
Devil May Cry 5 - 28.30%
Bayonetta 2 - 28.30%
BioShock Infinite - 28.30%
Stardew Valley – 28.30%
Divinity: Original Sin II - 28.01%
Shovel Knight - 26.82%
Octopath Traveler - 26.62%
Rayman Legends - 26.08%
Celeste - 25.85%
Undertale - 24.88%
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze - 24.11%
Mass Effect 3 – 21.60%
Dragon's Dogma - 19.10%
Terraria - 18.30%
Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward - 17.91%
Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft - 17.24%
Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty – 17.01%
Night in the Woods - 16.79%
Destiny – 16.32%
Assassin’s Creed Odyssey – 15.93%
Crusader Kings II - 14.28%
Mortal Kombat 11 - 13.84%
Return of the Obra Dinn – 10.05%

LeonhartFour posted...

Here we go

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt – 50.00%
Super Mario Odyssey - 49.32%
Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver Version - 46.53%
NieR: Automata - 44.79%
Super Mario Galaxy 2 – 39.40%
The Last of Us - 39.34%
Batman: Arkham City - 35.22%
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 32.08%
Diablo III - 28.89%
Devil May Cry 5 - 28.30%
Bayonetta 2 - 28.30%
BioShock Infinite - 28.30%
Stardew Valley – 28.30%
Divinity: Original Sin II - 28.01%
Shovel Knight - 26.82%
Octopath Traveler - 26.62%
Rayman Legends - 26.08%
Celeste - 25.85%
Undertale - 24.88%
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze - 24.11%
Mass Effect 3 – 21.60%
Dragon's Dogma - 19.10%
Terraria - 18.30%
Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward - 17.91%
Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft - 17.24%
Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty – 17.01%
Night in the Woods - 16.79%
Destiny – 16.32%
Assassin’s Creed Odyssey – 15.93%
Crusader Kings II - 14.28%
Mortal Kombat 11 - 13.84%
Return of the Obra Dinn – 10.05%

bookmark this post (though Zelda being in the way will ruin any chance of comparison)

transience posted...

how about assuming that this poll holds up exactly?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6565-best-of-2016-playstation-4

Final Fantasy XV - 50.00%
Uncharted 4: A Thief's End - 44.22%
Dark Souls III - 34.46%
Overwatch - 22.32%

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild – 50.00%
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim - 27.15%
Mario Kart 8 - 21.23%
Final Fantasy XV – 19.76%
Hollow Knight – 19.59%
Uncharted 4: A Thief's End - 17.48%
Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn - 16.83%
God of War - 16.53%
Xenoblade Chronicles - 16.53%
Halo: Reach – 15.14%
The Outer Worlds – 14.98%
Fallout: New Vegas - 14.78%
Tales of Berseria – 14.57%
Dark Souls III - 13.62%
Journey - 13.59%
Fire Emblem: Three Houses - 13.34%
Life is Strange – 13.28%
Ori and the Blind Forest - 10.08%
What Remains of Edith Finch – 10.02%
Dragon Age: Inquisition - 9.69%
Crypt of the NecroDancer - 9.58%
Fate/Grand Order - 9.18%
South Park: The Stick of Truth - 8.90%
Overwatch - 8.82%
Subnautica - 8.69%
Nioh - 8.44%
Dishonored - 8.19%
Death Stranding - 7.78%
Binding of Isaac: Rebirth - 7.34%
Splatoon 2 - 7.13%
The Stanley Parable - 6.09%
The Talos Principle - 4.99%

yes you read that right, somehow in this situation, GoW = Xenoblade happens by pure coincidence

(well technically GoW beats Xenoblade by like 0.06%)

transience posted...

bookmark this post (though Zelda being in the way will ruin any chance of comparison)

I think Pokemon's eightpack is a bit too high but other than that it's pretty solid

I think a lot of Nier and Pokemon actually

we'll see how Skyrim does

it's more the other games in its eightpack that make me balk more than anything else

I don't trust Rayman Legends or Divinity that much

LeonhartFour posted...

yes you read that right, somehow in this situation, GoW = Xenoblade happens by pure coincidence

Oh man, if Xenoblade burst as many brackets as it did in an SFF situation with Three Houses, imagine the freakouts if it takes it to God of War, probably winning in a direct match.

I set my percentages such that Zelda breaks 65% in every match, and Mario Odyssey being the third-strongest game in the bracket.

any chance DQXI is stronger than Mass effect 2?

deeewooh posted...

any chance DQXI is stronger than Mass effect 2?

I mean, there's always a chance but I wouldn't pick it.

Even if DQXI could beat ME2, I don't think it'd do better on BotW.

Battles will resume on daily at midnight UTC on May 5th (8PM Eastern, 5PM Pacific on May 4th).

Hyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyype.

So many calculations and ME2/RE2 just gonna come and destroy brackets Day 1.

hey Leon, what do we get if Stardew = FFXV?

transience posted...

hey Leon, what do we get if Stardew = FFXV?

Doing this from my phone so I can't do the whole division but BOTW gets 72.50% on Galaxy 2 and 65.10% on Witcher 3.

you knew where I was going. the more I think about it, this second chance bracket is about Zelda, not about these other close matches.

As someone who almost literally lost their s*** during RE2/BB, I don't see any way RE2 beats ME2 tbqh

It would be cool, but this one is stress-free since I don't expect it to win. Every percent is bonus.

I have RE2 in my original bracket and ME2 in my second chance bracket. I'll be happy and mad either way.

HaRRicH posted...

I have RE2 in my original bracket and ME2 in my second chance bracket. I'll be happy and mad either way.

Same. I'm pretty much ignoring my usual bracket while making 2nd chance. I've changed 5 matches iirc.

ME2 all the way

If it turns out to be a suicide mission, it'll be a fitting end.

Go my re2

So how many 2nd chance entries you think we'll have? 2000?

Approximately 51

They were asking in total, not specifically from Luster alts.

There are just some debated matches where you just have to go all in! As in having the same winner on both brackets.

Nah, one bracket doesn't affect the other and the only thing supporting not changing the bracket is sunk cost fallacy.

RE2 hasn't looked as good as ME2 in the stats and I see no reason to burn 2 brackets on it when I can burn just 1.

That said, this does mean the actual match will give me mixed feelings no matter what.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

That said, this does mean the actual match will give me mixed feelings no matter what.

That's actually the reason.

And just because you flip all dubious matches doesn't mean you're gonna get it all right in one bracket or the other.

I have The Witcher 3 reaching the finals in my second chance bracket, but Dark Souls doing so in my main.

Fortunately the only incorrect games I have in Round 4 are GTAV and Nier.

lordjers posted...

And just because you flip all dubious matches doesn't mean you're gonna get it all right in one bracket or the other.

I'm not flipping all dubious ones by default. I'm just making my predictions independent of what I had done before.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

I'm not flipping all dubious ones by default. I'm just making my predictions independent of what I had done before.

Me too, it's not like I'm doing it out of stubborness.

how many hours until it begins?

inchbytes posted...

how many hours until it begins?

3 and a half

How many matches today?

2

Flipped back to ME2 > RE2 after a few days as I feel much better about ME2 in my gut now. Only other match I am doubtful on is Skyrim/Pokemon. Everything else feels set in stone.

I would stick with my RE2 pick that I have in my original bracket, but I have ME2 in second chance because I feel like it benefits from the loss of casual voters due to the break. If nothing else, ME2 is likely the Board 8 favorite, and that's the one group least likely to miss the poll tonight.

RE2 very well could still win. I just think ME2's managed to look A SINGLE BIT better.

Nintendogs posted...

Do you believe in the Sore Thumb Factor?

I do believe in the Sore Thumb Factor, thanks @Nintendogs . Yea I realize during P5 vs W3, there will also be 2 other western games in the matches(Skyrim, Dark Souls). Thus P5 will stand out. Ok I am using that rationale to stick with P5