Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1356

ninkendo posted...

Xenoblade has a majoras mask style bombers journal where every NPC has of routine they follow every day and certain side quests can only be triggered at certain times of the day And as you complete them the bombers journal turns into a spiderweb of connections between NPCs and how they're all related to one another

Oh I am DEFINITELY canceling this.

I'll go ahead and add it to Ganefly, though.

GotD

I thought the "relationship web" was an awesome feature. It's entirely optional (and not as integral to Xenoblade as the bomber's notebook was for Majora), but it makes the world feel more cohesive and connected. And like the rest of the game, it's enormous.

Yup if you ignore it you could probably finish the opening area in 1 or 2 hours or you could just stay around and work on side quests and you can spend up to 15 hours there

I forget if named monsters were part of the side quests or if they were their own separate thing

Like is there a side quest for taking out Gentle Rodriguez

Is today's result by Smash Ultimate the performance of the contest?

ninkendo posted...

I forget if named monsters were part of the side quests or if they were their own separate thing

Like is there a side quest for taking out Gentle Rodriguez

Some of the unique monsters had specific side quests, but IIRC, most did not.

I got Xenoblade when it was ported to WiiU and I did not get very far in it because there were too many sidequests and 90% of them were bad

"Just don't do all the sidequests", you might say. Well I've got problems and one of my problems is that I do sidequests obsessively, and Xenoblade is a very bad game for someone with that problem

are the 2nd chance brackets up yet? Don't see anything

SuperNiceDog posted...

are the 2nd chance brackets up yet? Don't see anything

Allen said that would be uploaded tomorrow.

MetalmindStats posted...

2015 stats project a ME2 win with barely 55%, and ME2 seemed to have at least as much reason to decline as Awakening pre-contest.

ME2's 2015 xstat value is a result of underperforming like crazy against MGS3 and isn't to be trusted.

Xenoblade can range from 50 to 300 hours depending on how much side content you want to do.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Allen said that would be uploaded tomorrow.

ok thanks

stall this out Xenoblade you can do it! this is your finest hour

Is this P4 Golden result looking good for Persona 5 against Witcher 3?

Wait so Persona caught a rally? If so, that might have affected the other match to.

There's no real evidence of a sustained rally. It's just 51/49 match with frequent enough cuts and stalls to keep us from calling it for Xenoblade.

X-Stat based rankings for the 2 most recent "favorite 5 game polls":



A couple of games have clearly gotten weaker, such as MGSV and Civ V.

Persona 5 and FFV are games that I think have gotten stronger, but how much of that is actually due to Skyrim getting weaker is unknown.

Skyrim looks to be the clear loser here. It got 28.31% in a 10-way poll back in 2018, but could only get 27.31% in an 8-way poll which looks like a clear drop in strength to me.

GTAV looks to have remained fairly stable, which is rather unfortunate for it as P4G just happened to be a lot stronger than we gave it credit for. GTAV looking better against Skyrim in 2020 is solely due to Skyrim dropping in strength.

Excuse me that was a 40 vote cut?

That just looks suspicious.

they've been trading these weird big updates for a while

next one will probably be a big XB gain

Woke up, checked the results.

Smash winning by that much? I did expected it to win but not that much. Then again it is the best selling fighting game of all time with an ungodly amount of character so it does makes sense.

I gotta hand it to P4. 2 really close wins and even now it seems it will lose with like 2% difference.

is Xenoblade going to hold on? It's looking shaky right now

It wins in both USA and UK so I think it is fine.

Friendly reminder that both RDR and GTAV won in the US and the UK.

Really? Okay that changes things.

Yeah, I mean not that it isn't a help. Xenoblade could keep this up. Just saying it doesn't guarantee you anything.

Xenoblade is also winning a large majority of Europe. GTA and RDR just had the anglosphere.

Put in PTO for the night Xenoblade comes out

4 day weekend @_@

Is Xenoblade the star of the contest if it pulls this off?

I think it has been a candidate for that all along, but it does look less beastly now, so I suppose it depends on the rest of the contest.

It is actually. Let's be real only 16% had it even reaching this match. Funny thing is that it's opponent had 14% reaching so far! So basically whichever game wins is the star of the contest.

Also I do believe that we will see one of the lowest non rally division winners ever based on correct prediction rate in this match.

Xenoblade is doing well but I don't think it will win, Persona is much more mainstream.

Xenoblade has its largest lead of the match so far. Looks like Europe saved its bacon after all. The Asia vote was rough.

Happy to help.

And yes, it'll have a really low prediction percentage going into the division finals but it still depends on the contest.

Lowest non-rallied prediction percentage for division winner 1v1 is Charizard in 2010 boosting through with HGSS release. Counting multiways, Draven and Squirtle from 2013 beats it, though both were rallied to some extend. Mewtwo in 2008 and Red in 2013 would be the next two.

So f*** Pokemon basically.

The Division 1 x-stats look more or less fine, even if Final Fantasy XV and Halo: Reach - mostly the former though - seem lower than I would expect and Bravely Default higher. But I admit I know nothing about Bravely Default other than "old-school FF throwback".

The Division 2 x-stats continue to hurt my brain. Bloodborne and Horizon seem higher than they should be, while Fire Emblem and especially Fallout seem lower. Adjusting Fallout 4's value on Mass Effect 2 up by 5%, Bloodborne to 48% on RE2, and Fire Emblem to 45% on Bloodborne makes things more sensible, but that's too much adjustment!

I get the feeling Mass Effect 2 is going to overperform against Zelda next round. Zelda might be starting to get obvious winner anti-votes, though it should be strong enough to still win.

Xenoblade's got this barring a big Persona rally, since the only games to reverse more than 1% at this point in the poll are the ones with godly day votes.

Xenoblade is a contender for star of the contest, though this match grounded Xenoblade back to reality after that 60% on Three Houses. Seems more like this division is extremely weak than Xenoblade being that strong.

Charizard had back then 3.17

The others were multi ways so I don't count them. Seems that is the lowest prediction ever for a non rallies non multiway poll. Yeah Xenogears and P4G will have at least 10% so no way they reach that.

Safer_777 posted...

Charizard had back then 3.17

The others were multi ways so I don't count them. Seems that is the lowest prediction ever for a non rallies non multiway poll. Yeah Xenogears and P4G will have at least 10% so no way they reach that.

Only for a division final! Otherwise it's Zelda reaching the winners finals in 2018, followed by Tifa beating Seph and Super Mario RPG reaching the semis in 2015.

Persona makes 30 minutes worth of cuts

Then shulk says this is the monados power and erases it

LeonhartFour posted...

Borderlands 2 – 40.32%
Fire Emblem: Awakening – 39.90%

What the heck happened to Fire Emblem this contest?

Safer_777 posted...

Charizard had back then 3.17

The others were multi ways so I don't count them. Seems that is the lowest prediction ever for a non rallies non multiway poll. Yeah Xenogears and P4G will have at least 10% so no way they reach that.

There's a pretty good chance one or both of them is under 10%

Kinda funny to think about a division finals for 2010s game of the decade being between a Vita port of a 2000s game and a Wii game with a versatile original release date depending on the perspective you take with it.

Oh well, I hear they're both great and I want to try them both someday soon.

GotY 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015 and soon 2020

HaRRicH posted...

Kinda funny to think about a division finals for 2010s game of the decade being between a Vita port of a 2000s game and a Wii game with a versatile original release date depending on the perspective you take with it.

Oh well, I hear they're both great and I want to try them both someday soon.

It's the most GameFAQs division final we have and in hindsight I should have seen it coming

HaRRicH posted...

Kinda funny to think about a division finals for 2010s game of the decade being between a Vita port of a 2000s game and a Wii game with a versatile original release date depending on the perspective you take with it.

Oh well, I hear they're both great and I want to try them both someday soon.

They are definitely the most "strong despite their publisher actively hampering their potential" games in the bracket.

The original Persona 4 came out on PS2 exclusively late 2008 (2-3 years after PS3/Wii/360 came out) and Persona 4 Golden is a freaking Vita exclusive of all things. Meanwhile, Xenoblade took a massive fan campaign just to get a limited Gamestop exclusive release.

It's a miracle both of them even made it this far.

HaRRicH posted...

Kinda funny to think about a division finals for 2010s game of the decade being between a Vita port of a 2000s game and a Wii game with a versatile original release date depending on the perspective you take with it.

Oh well, I hear they're both great and I want to try them both someday soon.

I'm here thinking there's a chance the semifinals will be Zelda/Smash/Persona/Pokemon

Because we need to make a point about how Japanese we are.

I bought Xenoblade on 3DS for $30 and sold it for $60, which is my only good memory of the game. I profited a dollar for every minute I spent playing it. Worth every penny.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

I'm here thinking there's a chance the semifinals will be Zelda/Smash/Persona/Pokemon

Because we need to make a point about how Japanese we are.

Gamefaqs is a site focused on tips and secrets in videogames. Western videogames tend to have bigger budget than japanese videogames so they have to be more effective in their development. They don't "waste" time developing secret things and everything has to be shown to the player during the first walkthrough. So I guess that explains why this site favor japanese videogames. Because they tend to have more content not shown during the first walkthrough and secret content the player has to discover.

I swear most of my interest for Xenoblade comes from it being a Nintendo RPG with Smash representation. Otherwise it doesn't really look like something I'd really be for.

squexa posted...

What the heck happened to Fire Emblem this contest?

Fire Emblem probably wins that comfortably (remember, Borderlands 2 is behind Horizon's rally-fuelled overperformance and FE faced full-rally Bloodborne), but yeah the fact it's even so close is telling. Then again, remember Borderlands 2 got like 41% on Earthbound in 2015, and then Earthbound got like 40% on MGS the following round? While FE got 48% on Donkey Kong Country 2. Earthbound should be stronger than DKC2 no?

Yeah if you adjust Horizon down 2%, adjust Bloodborne to 48% on RE2 and Fire Emblem to 45% on Bloodborne, Borderlands 2 gets 46.9% on FE.

On the other hand, direct extrapolation from 2015 has Borderlands 2 getting 40.14% on Mass Effect 2, which is not far off from its Horizon-boosted score this time. Maybe Borderlands 2 dropped extra?

LinkMarioSamus posted...

I swear most of my interest for Xenoblade comes from it being a Nintendo RPG with Smash representation. Otherwise it doesn't really look like something I'd really be for.

It’s one of the best RPGs ever made.