Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1357

Just checked my second chance bracket, looks great, then I scroll down and I see a 97% toward the end... Sigh, I blame it on the scrolling wheel.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

I'm sort of curious what you worst game ever list would look like. It feels like you have a lot of games near the bottom but you can't put all of them in the bottom 10.

1 - Hearthstone
2 - Warcraft 3
3 - Devil May Cry 2 and DmC: Devil May Cry (going Chris Berman on this one)
4 - Lunar Dragon Song
5 - Mighty No. 9
6 - Knights in the Nightmare
7 - Shadow of the Colossus
8 - Phantom Hourglass and Spirit Tracks (they might as well be one giant game anyway)
9 - All of the Dissidia games
10 - Every MMORPG ever made, and yes this includes Final Fantasy 14 and I don't care what the honks say to try defending it
Honorable Mention - Every Mario Kart game ever made, for popularizing the ever-moronic gameplay mechanic of punishing skilled players. Mario Kart didn't invent those things, but they're certainly the most popular about it.

It will take a true standard of s***tiness never before seen to crack that list. Trash like Dream Drop Distance, Super Princess Peach, Resident Evils 0, 5, and 6, and The World Ends With You are all garbage cans, but they have a saving grace here and there that prevent them from making the list. Games known for being bad (Superman 64, ET) have an entertainment value due to their status.

No one will ever convince me a single game on my s*** list has entertainment value. You also have absolutely no idea how much I love the Warcraft 3 Reforged metacritic user score. It vindicated nearly 20 years of hatred.

Here's my take on Witcher's performance that has f*** all to do with SFF. There's three scenarios I find plausible

A) New Vegas got hit with the same 'Bethesda bad' stick that Fallout 4 and Skyrim got hit with, and God of War's number on it wasn't as good as we thought. I can't imagine it got hit THAT hard because New Vegas is put on a pedestal by the 'Bethesda bad' people, but I can buy it still hurting from the blowback on the brand.

B) There was speculation that the massive success of the Switch may help Nintendo across the board; maybe that was true and Mario Galaxy 2 is better than it was in 2015. I waver on this one a bit because that would make Stardew Valley REALLY good relative to all the other indies, but it's possible.

C) Rally spillover from Reddit is artificially inflating Witcher's number, because Witcher will be THE game to benefit from any Reddit spillover because that website will sacrifice a newborn infant on the altar of Geraldo.

UltimaterializerX posted...

You also have absolutely no idea how much I love the Warcraft 3 Reforged metacritic user score. It vindicated nearly 20 years of hatred.

Except the metacritic score for that was based on Blizzard not properly giving care to remake a game that so many people loved because it was great.

That's not what vindication means. No one now thinks "oh yeah Warcraft 3 is bad because reforged sucks, Ulti was right all along".

yeah..the metacritic on reforged is bad BECAUSE the original is so highly regarded. in a way that actually goes 100% against your belief.

also there were a TON of controversies with that game that went way beyond the game just being a bad remake. like Blizzard restricting access to the old warcraft 3 to people who had that version (they just replaced it with reforged automatically in an update), banning mods, it was just a huge cluster****

Sharinnegan posted...

yeah..the metacritic on reforged is bad BECAUSE the original is so highly regarded. in a way that actually goes 100% against your belief.

also there were a TON of controversies with that game that went way beyond the game just being a bad remake. like Blizzard restricting access to the old warcraft 3 to people who had that version (they just replaced it with reforged automatically in an update), banning mods, it was just a huge cluster****

The fact that it release without a ladder makes it deserve a 0. Ridiculous.

MechanicalWall posted...

Here's my take on Witcher's performance that has f*** all to do with SFF. There's three scenarios I find plausible

A) New Vegas got hit with the same 'Bethesda bad' stick that Fallout 4 and Skyrim got hit with, and God of War's number on it wasn't as good as we thought. I can't imagine it got hit THAT hard because New Vegas is put on a pedestal by the 'Bethesda bad' people, but I can buy it still hurting from the blowback on the brand.

B) There was speculation that the massive success of the Switch may help Nintendo across the board; maybe that was true and Mario Galaxy 2 is better than it was in 2015. I waver on this one a bit because that would make Stardew Valley REALLY good relative to all the other indies, but it's possible.

C) Rally spillover from Reddit is artificially inflating Witcher's number, because Witcher will be THE game to benefit from any Reddit spillover because that website will sacrifice a newborn infant on the altar of Geraldo.

Is this C point true, because i think its just a meme at this point, i have never seen any proof for it except over-exaggerated over-emotional theories.

That list reminds me that I bought Knights in the Nightmare a long time ago. I never got around to playing it and probably never will at this point. I guess it might have been for the best.

the reddit thing is overblown, but it is true that Witcher 3 is one of those "everyone loves it" games. as a result, when all else looks neutral, it is indeed more likely to benefit from spillover than the opponent.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

That list reminds me that I bought Knights in the Nightmare a long time ago. I never got around to playing it and probably never will at this point. I guess it might have been for the best.

It's a strategy RPG, that wants to be a bullet hell, where you can't choose the direction your characters face. It is hilariously s***ty.

Rollthebones2 posted...

Except the metacritic score for that was based on Blizzard not properly giving care to remake a game that so many people loved because it was great.

That's not what vindication means. No one now thinks "oh yeah Warcraft 3 is bad because reforged sucks, Ulti was right all along".

You guys have known me for ages. Do you really think I'm taking that score as anything but me being right all along?

UltimaterializerX posted...

You guys have known me for ages. Do you really think I'm taking that score as anything but me being right all along?

You know, I can respect that level of commitment.

Also, I initially read the 'Dissidia games' as the 'Disgaea games' and was preparing to nerd rage. I'm glad I re-read that because Dissidia was one of the greater disappointments in my life.

I knew God of War was weaker than Galaxy 2

tgs2 posted...

Vanilla KH2 was just as dumb as KH3 in terms of perception upon release. I am suspecting everyone is meaning KH2FM when talking about 2.

Vanilla KH2 is still fantastic

5 minute X-Stats (2 hours late):

Division 5

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt – 50.00%
Super Mario Galaxy 2 – 39.40%
God of War – 33.82%
Fallout: New Vegas – 30.26%
Stardew Valley – 28.30%
Dark Souls III – 27.86%
Mass Effect 3 – 21.60%
Nioh – 17.28%
Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty – 17.01%
Dishonored – 16.75%
Destiny – 16.32%
Assassin’s Creed Odyssey – 15.93%
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth – 15.02%
The Stanley Parable – 12.47%
The Talos Principle – 10.20%
Return of the Obra Dinn – 10.05%

Division 6

Persona 5 – 50.00%
Portal 2 – 47.69%
Red Dead Redemption 2 – 44.37%
Animal Crossing: New Leaf – 37.62%
Kingdom Hearts III – 35.90%
Tomb Raider – 33.11%
Sonic Mania – 32.11%
Assassin’s Creed IV: Black Flag – 28.94%
Sid Meier’s Civilization V – 25.21%
Street Fighter V – 25.19%
Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA – 23.93%
Disco Elysium – 22.93%
Super Meat Boy – 22.58%
Heavy Rain – 21.71%
Dying Light – 16.51%
Slay the Spire – 14.02%

More X-Stats:

Division 3

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 50.00%
Super Mario Odyssey – 44.06%
Marvel’s Spider-Man – 36.39%
The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds – 35.94%
Minecraft – 30.82%
Bayonetta – 26.24%
Devil May Cry 5 – 25.28%
Shovel Knight – 23.96%
Octopath Traveler – 23.78%
Undertale – 22.22%
Dead Space 2 – 21.88%
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze – 21.54%
Dragon’s Dogma – 17.06%
Tekken 7 – 17.02%
Dota 2 – 14.97%
Mortal Kombat 11 – 12.36%

Division 4

Xenoblade Chronicles – 50.00%
Persona 4 Golden – 49.79%
Red Dead Redemption – 48.96%
Grand Theft Auto V – 48.72%
Fire Emblem: Three Houses – 40.36%
Cuphead – 38.73%
Ori and the Blind Forest – 30.48%
Dragon Age: Inquisition – 29.32%
South Park: The Stick of Truth – 26.91%
Overwatch – 26.68%
XCOM 2 – 24.57%
Death Stranding – 23.53%
FTL: Faster Than Light – 22.14%
Splatoon 2 – 21.57%
Ghost Trick: Phantom Detective – 20.69%
Baba Is You – 20.20%

Kingdom Hearts 2 was the last good game in that series. Everything since has proved Tetsuya Nomura should have been fired ages ago.

Dead Space 2 hanging with that crowd looks really weird.

tgs2 posted...

Vanilla KH2 was just as dumb as KH3 in terms of perception upon release. I am suspecting everyone is meaning KH2FM when talking about 2.

Um, did you see either of the 2006 contests? Make no mistake, KH2 was no case of a game that took time to find its footing and fanbase, at least here on GameFAQs.

MechanicalWall posted...

I waver on this one a bit because that would make Stardew Valley REALLY good relative to all the other indies, but it's possible.

Don't forget that Stardew significantly benefited from its match being on the same day as the second largest single rally of this contest so far, so it's not quite as strong as its result against Galaxy 2 makes it look. Anyways, I do agree with your points A and B at the very least, and I'd also add that New Vegas was likely overrated in the 2015 stats to begin with.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Kingdom Hearts 2 was the last good game in that series. Everything since has proved Tetsuya Nomura should have been fired ages ago.

Birth By Sleep was decent and the only real problem with 3 is that it’s too easy

Minecraft strongest indie confirmed, I guess

Trend charts:

Time | Smash | Odyssey | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 56.50% | 43.50% | 492 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 56.26% | 43.74% | 3313 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 58.15% | 41.85% | 8347 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 52.06% | 47.94% | 3598 | (6:00-11:00)
TMV | 54.77% | 45.23% | 5547 | (11:00-17:00)
TDV | 56.08% | 43.92% | 5966 | (17:00-24:00)

Smash is still really bad in Europe, even by Nintendo standards.

Time | P4G | Xenoblade | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 44.49% | 55.51% | 490 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 48.41% | 51.59% | 3311 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 49.20% | 50.80% | 8347 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 48.81% | 51.19% | 3600 | (6:00-11:00)
TMV | 50.30% | 49.70% | 5555 | (11:00-17:00)
TDV | 51.51% | 48.49% | 5966 | (17:00-24:00)

Persona 4 wins the second half of the match outright but it isn't enough.

KH2 was only hated by kh1 purists like me.

Kh3 was only defended by hardcore fans

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4172-southeast-division-round-3-kingdom-hearts-ii-vs-kingdom

this was well before Final Mix came stateside

Leon give me RDR1 = RDR2

Does anyone have the match pic numbers for Skyrim and Pokemon, by chance?

transience posted...

Leon give me RDR1 = RDR2

Persona 5 – 50.00%
Portal 2 – 41.96%
Xenoblade Chronicles - 39.87%
Persona 4 Golden - 39.70%
Red Dead Redemption - 39.04%
Red Dead Redemption 2 – 39.04%
Grand Theft Auto V - 38.85%
Animal Crossing: New Leaf – 33.10%
Fire Emblem: Three Houses - 32.18%
Sonic Mania – 32.11%
Kingdom Hearts III – 31.59%
Cuphead - 30.88%
Tomb Raider – 29.13%
Assassin’s Creed IV: Black Flag – 28.94%
Sid Meier’s Civilization V – 25.21%
Ori and the Blind Forest - 24.30%
Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA – 23.93%
Dragon Age: Inquisition - 23.38%
Super Meat Boy – 22.58%
Street Fighter V – 22.16%
Heavy Rain – 21.71%
South Park: The Stick of Truth - 21.46%
Overwatch - 21.27%
Disco Elysium – 20.17%
XCOM 2 - 19.59%
Death Stranding - 18.76%
FTL: Faster Than Light - 17.65%
Splatoon 2 - 17.20%
Ghost Trick: Phantom Detective - 16.50%
Baba Is You - 16.11%
Dying Light – 14.53%
Slay the Spire – 14.02%

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Does anyone have the match pic numbers for Skyrim and Pokemon, by chance?

92151
43298

Is P5 screwed? It looks like it...

nah I think it's safe from a Portal 2 comeback

LeonhartFour posted...

Animal Crossing: New Leaf – 33.10%
Fire Emblem: Three Houses - 32.18%
Sonic Mania – 32.11%
Kingdom Hearts III – 31.59%

Yah I'm gonna say RDR1 > RDR2 for the sake of my sanity

I'd take Sonic Mania to win that fourpack

@ZenOfThunder

I’d take it to lose to every game there

seriously though I've thought RDR1 > RDR2 from the start and that probably cements it for me

LeonhartFour posted...

seriously though I've thought RDR1 > RDR2 from the start and that probably cements it for me

My first impression was that RDR2 could be stronger, but then I put in serious thought about how RDR2 got roasted over its efforts to be too realistic with those overly long animations, and I would bet on the original being far more respected.

pjbasis posted...

KH2 was only hated by kh1 purists like me.

Kh3 was only defended by hardcore fans

I'm not a hardcore fan and KH3 is in the running for my favorite in the series

but I realize I'm in the minority there

RDR1 and RDR2 are probably about even. dont see much reason for them not to be. even GTAV ended up being about the same. these Rockstar games are likely all the same here.

Fire emblem looks awful because Xenoblade SFF'd it a bit. and KH looks awful because...it's just that weak. not that hard to believe.

They've updated their stickied thread

Who knows how much it's helping but it looks like they're in it for the long haul

Also the P4G thread in r/vita has like 200 upvotes now vs the 70-ish it had when the match ended lol

this match is currently on pace to be the most voted of the contest.

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate vs. Super Mario Odyssey
Registered Vote Result:
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 5054 (56.62%)
Super Mario Odyssey - 3872 (43.38%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 4867 (54.57%)
Super Mario Odyssey - 4052 (45.43%)

Persona 4 Golden vs. Xenoblade Chronicles
Registered Vote Result:
Persona 4 Golden - 4405 (49.33%)
Xenoblade Chronicles - 4524 (50.67%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Persona 4 Golden - 4524 (50.71%)
Xenoblade Chronicles - 4397 (49.29%)

Smash Ultimate had the advantage with registered users, but only by about 2%.

Xenoblade did have a registered user advantage, but it was less than a 1.5% difference. Even though there were rallies for P4G, the reason why P4G didn't do better than it should have with anonymous users is because Xenoblade also seemed to have a successful rally of its own. Both games appeared to have rallies, and they kind of canceled each other out. I estimated there were between 800 and 1200 rallied votes between both games combined, based on the percentage of registered users in these matches.

P4G also barely won the overall raw vote (by 8 votes), but it was the registered user bonus that prevented the rallies from being successful.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFS3SfH6sAhPdS85H7BpuFIkr9SayeF7AhMw-wrEBng/pub

ZeldaTPLink posted...

@ctesjbuvf how did the Last Man Standing contest end? I think I lost track of it.

Agent M won when the other three supported GTAV to round 4.

Did someone say "listen to The Show"?

Where does Xenoblade fall on the 'least predicted results' list?

KamikazePotato posted...

Where does Xenoblade fall on the 'least predicted results' list?

It’s like the first post doesn’t even exist.

Just below Cloud's victory in 2003

Dream Drop Distance beated.

I cannot believe I picked Portal 2 to lose to this s***. And yes I am fully aware KH3 is what was actually in the match. What HAPPENED to this series? We went from a Square-Disney one time crossover to playing augmented Tamagachi for stats. Never mind the laughably bad camera work on a screen zoomed in far too much, the complete removal of all Final Fantasy characters, and a plot so embarrassing that I'd rather my wife caught me watching porn instead of playing Kingdom Hearts. I can reasonably explain porn. There is no explaining why anyone would subject themselves to Tetsuya Nomura in any capacity.

UltimaterializerX posted...

It’s like the first post doesn’t even exist.

Oh, right.

Let's take that list and remove everything that was almost entirely rally-driven such as Draven. Then I'll also remove everything that was a result from Round 5 and onward. We get:

1. Squirtle (R3) - 2.33% vs Cloud and Leon in 2013
2. Charizard (R4) - 3.17% vs Bowser in 2010
3. Mewtwo (R3) - 3.60% vs Cloud, Squall, Sora in 2008
4. Red (R3) - 3.95% vs Vivi and Squall in 2013
5. Vivi (R2) - 4.61% vs Mario and Ganondorf in 2013
6. Xenoblade Chronicles (R4) - 6.29% vs Persona 4 Golden in 2020

Actually a little farther down the list than I expected even considering the stipulations. Multi-way polls f***ed us up bad. If you remove the multi-entrants polls remaining on the list (all of which were involved in LFF, mid-level rallies, or both at the same time), then the only traditional GameFAQsy 1 v 1 match from Round 4 or earlier that was more unpredictable than Xenoblade>P4 was 2010 Charizard. Hopefully Xenoblade proves itself to be less of a fraud in future contests than the Zard did!

I only ever look at the 1v1 list. It's in the same article.

Not going to lie, I was rooting for Xenoblade entirely because I knew having a correct pick was going to be one of the biggest 1v1 upsets we've ever had minus rallies. Easily the most elusive match i've ever gotten right.

Except I actually looked at the list, and I realized Bowser vs. Alucard in the Loser's Bracket actually has a lower site percentage, but was actually a cookie Guru pick, so I got that one to hang my hat on as well.

So ignoring matches with games releasing on the same day flipping results, Xenoblade takes that!

Of course, there're already lots of asterisks there.

Woke up, checked the results.

Withcer 3 a lock for finals now for sure. Also P5 strong?

And what happened yesterday? I guess P4 had a rally somewhere?