Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1357

Leonhart4 posted...

There were people pre-contest who speculated it was the strongest indie!

Another game this contest I know of pretty much only because my brother plays it.

Leonhart4 posted...

I've done pretty well about avoiding huge mistakes. I think the only pick I've made where I've been off by more than one round was Three Houses winning the division, and I didn't feel good about that one the whole time.

Didn't you pick God of War to the semis? ;)

ctesjbuvf posted...

Didn't you pick God of War to the semis? ;)

Oh right, I thought Skyrim was next round, not the round after. So yeah, that one, too.

https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r4/83346.jpg
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r4/125470.jpg

https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r4/92151.jpg
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r4/43298.jpg

Allen got these up a bit early.

Man, that's one heck of a Sore Thumb Factor

Is the second chance entry page not working for anyone else?

That TLOU pic is just gonna end up being end up being Joel's shoulder on mobile, isn't it

MechanicalWall posted...

That TLOU pic is just gonna end up being end up being Joel's shoulder on mobile, isn't it

More specifically, that match is going to be a dragon's wing vs. Joel's shoulder.

Now watch Skyrim go from beating Metroid Prime to losing to HGSS in the span of five years.

Was very confused why there were two Skyrim pictures at first.

is Persona 5 totally cooked?

SuperNiceDog posted...

is Persona 5 totally cooked?

It's f***ing RAW!!!

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Now watch Skyrim go from beating Metroid Prime to losing to HGSS in the span of five years.

I'd take GSC > Metroid Prime so if everyone thinks HGSS is GSC it could happen.

P5's performance is almost exactly in line with what Galaxy 2 is projected to do against Portal 2 in the 2015 X-Stats, so the baseline for Witcher 3 next round should be 60/40.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r4/43298.jpg

Well, this picture sticks out but there's such an emphasis on human characters you can barely see any Pokémon. Surely a Ho-Oh/Lugia pic would be ideal.

"does Chikorita need a face?
nah, leaf counts."

Least we have Whitney and Clair. Everyone loves those characters.

charmander6000 posted...

I'd take GSC > Metroid Prime so if everyone thinks HGSS is GSC it could happen.

I think everyone and their mother would take GSC over Metroid Prime.

aren't Portal 2's 2015 stats totally messed up because it lost to sonic 2 which then got totally fodderized by nintendo SFF from pokemon?

Sharinnegan posted...

aren't Portal 2's 2015 stats totally messed up because it lost to sonic 2 which then got totally fodderized by nintendo SFF from pokemon?

oh yeah I don't trust Portal 2's X-Stats at all

I'm just pointing out the similarities in the numbers

Just occurred to me that, unless Dark Souls pulls out a beatdown, every division winner is probably going into Round 5 looking underwhelming compared to what we expected...except for Witcher 3.

I dunno, I think Smash and P5 also look good.

Persona 5 is basically doing exactly as expected i think.

ME2 also.

Smash ultimate overperformed i think? but its an SFF match so it doesn't really matter.

I think Breath of the Wild looks pretty well in line with pre-contest expectations, it's just that its 80% on FFXV doesn't look as impressive.

Oh yeah, forgot about Smash.

I'm not satisfied with P5's result. It has every intangible going into this match and still isn't doing that great.

Yeah, I think this P5 performance should be considered as expected unless you think it's overperformed by a good amount due to this rally.

KamikazePotato posted...

Oh yeah, forgot about Smash.

I'm not satisfied with P5's result. It has every intangible going into this match and still isn't doing that great.

Eh, if you're looking at those "projections" that had P5 winning by 60%+ or whatever, I always felt those were way too generous.

Considering ME2 had a 20% prediction rate to make it out as the 1 seed, I'd say it did pretty good

But yes Witcher is the only one that's going in having really exceeded expectations. Praise Geraldo and all that

we may all just be heavily underestimating Portal 2. guess we'll see.

Sharinnegan posted...

we may all just be heavily underestimating Portal 2. guess we'll see.

Yes, Portal 2 is a beast, i think in other circumstances Portal 2 could beat Persona 5. You see Portal 2 mentioned on pretty much most official lists about "Games of the Decade"

Good contest would be best developer of the decade.

58% would have been a good benchmark I think. Failing to reach that when there's still Persona rallies floating around (including one pinned to the Persona subreddit) is underwhelming to me. Not terrible or anything, but could have done better.

KamikazePotato posted...

58% would have been a good benchmark I think. Failing to reach that when there's still Persona rallies floating around (including one pinned to the Persona subreddit) is underwhelming to me. Not terrible or anything, but could have done better.

In next match i think we should tell Witcher subreddit to pin a thread, so we can see what true rallies look like.

KamikazePotato posted...

58% would have been a good benchmark I think. Failing to reach that when there's still Persona rallies floating around (including one pinned to the Persona subreddit) is underwhelming to me. Not terrible or anything, but could have done better.

Yeah, I wouldn't call this an underperformance or anything. It didn't do anything impressive, but it speaks to our expectations that 57%+ on Portal 2 is merely "good enough."

ShortReplies posted...

Yes, Portal 2 is a beast, i think in other circumstances Portal 2 could beat Persona 5. You see Portal 2 mentioned on pretty much most official lists about "Games of the Decade"

Good contest would be best developer of the decade.

what developer would do well in developer of the decade other than Nintendo...

Sony #2 maybe...?

MechanicalWall posted...

Considering ME2 had a 20% prediction rate to make it out as the 1 seed, I'd say it did pretty good

The overall site prediction percentage doesn't matter in conversations like these. Otherwise we would be saying stuff like Fortnite massively underperformed when everyone on B8 knew what would happen. 60% of Gurus took ME2 to win its division, and while it accomplished that, it did so in a completely unspectacular fashion. It could have done better.

That's really what I'm getting at. Breath of the Wild, Mass Effect 2, Xenoblade, and Persona 5 all could have done at least a little bit better. I'm not feeling great about Skyrim either, and Dark Souls...well okay if nothing else the leak will probably make it fine. Smash and Witcher are the only ones so far that shut up the naysayers.

Mac Arrowny posted...

what developer would do well in developer of the decade other than Nintendo...

Sony #2 maybe...?

Developer of the Decade would be a bigger curbstomp than even Best Year.

And honestly, all ME2 needed to do was just win the division. Even the people who picked it generally didn't do so with a great deal of confidence.

that subreddit is just not very active. ironically, the Persona 5 subreddit is much bigger than the one for the Persona series itself. if they could get a rally going over THERE, it'd be much more effective

..i also think the topic being there for so long, (since the last match), is having an adverse effect. most folks who already voted last match are probably glancing at that pinned topic and assuming its the same match they already voted for.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Another game this contest I know of pretty much only because my brother plays it.

you’re saying your brother actually plays games? Maybe you should try, you know, following his example.

anyone know which day Persona 5 vs The Witcher 3 is? Two matches per day continues in the quarterfinals right?

So Saturday?

KamikazePotato posted...

The overall site prediction percentage doesn't matter in conversations like these.

Well that's on top of the fact that once people actually saw Division 2 in action people were forecasting ME2's doom. 52% doesn't sound like much but when 40% of the guru bets against you it's certainly adequate.

Is there a problem with Persona 5 just looking as expected? The BOP had Persona 5 with 56.26%. I think the Oracle consensus will probably be around 57%.

Yeah, as someone who's been dishing it on Mass Effect's chances this contest, it did what it needed to do. First, it got a 1-seed. After that, it beat down this contest's toughest 16-seed -- the first of two major Resident Evil games it'd have to face. Then it beat down a game way worse than Witcher 3 could in 2015. ME2 didn't stop there -- it went on beat a game that beat a GotY-winner, and most recently it beat our latest GotY-winner. We generally knew this division was contentious and it survived it.

If you thought ME2 was going to fail due to ME3's reception, we saw ME3 was closer to ME2 than Starcraft 2 was to Starcraft 1. It did all it was asked to do there too.

I still think we never got to see ME2's strength at its highest peak (pre-ME3), and as someone who barely dabbled in these games it still sounds like the ME-series has had a true fall from grace when that trilogy was arguably on its way to be our medium's biggest contribution since the Ocarina of Time. Regardless, this didn't stop the series one bit with the paths it had this contest and all we have left to see is how it compares to Dragon Quest 11 when it faces Breath of the Wild -- just as it was before the contest began.

What are the X Stats for DQ11 vs GoW?

That Dark Souls picture is so, sooooooo good.

Can't believe people are desperate in trying to claim some sort of Western SFF between Witcher 3 and f***ing God of War. Absolutely ridiculous. IF your'e going to claim that then theres SFF between FF and Zelda.

And with how low votals are on this site..SFF exists in virtually every match up.

I'm seriously guessing noone has played these games and just like to talk out of their arse

God of War is doing as expected. It would definitely lose to SMG2.

UltimaterializerX posted...

That Dark Souls picture is so, sooooooo good.

We needed TLOU pic with Abby on the front.

MithosLowell posted...

Can't believe people are desperate in trying to claim some sort of Western SFF between Witcher 3 and f***ing God of War. Absolutely ridiculous. IF your'e going to claim that then theres SFF between FF and Zelda.

And with how low votals are on this site..SFF exists in virtually every match up.

I'm seriously guessing noone has played these games and just like to talk out of their arse

God of War is doing as expected. It would definitely lose to SMG2.

Are you Yuri Lowell?

Can't believe people are desperate in trying to claim some sort of Western SFF between Witcher 3 and every f***ing Western game it has faced. Absolutely ridiculous. IF your'e going to claim that then theres SFF between hurr and durr.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Are you Yuri Lowell?

Clearly. Blocked.

So when I said it's more that the SFF would be because they're simply games with some similarities, same demographics and where the losing game is exclusive to the platform the winning game is biggest on, that's still summarized as "Western SFF" >_>