Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1358

Most people credit this partially due TLoU backfire.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

I don't think the game aged that well, though. It's often cited on forums as one of the most overrated games of this console generation. And the characters, while well crafted and multi-layered, aren't exactly awesome from a "game character" perspective.

Also, this hasn't been brought up in Board 8's discussions about the franchise, but I think the sequel is also hurt because it's releasing about five years after the zombie craze started becoming stale. If you're not Resident Evil, people don't care about your zombie apocalypse world. Look at how Days Gone flopped.

Days Gone actually sold pretty well, you're not making a good argument for your narrative.

Yeah Days Gone did really well. It didn't do really well with critics but that doesn't matter.

Sharinnegan posted...

well, for one, i dont believe the percentages will flip to Skyrim beating pokemon by more than DS is beating last of us. if it does then i change my mind.

How about now?

Wow, Skyrim looks like it'll easily hit 60% at this rate.

So much for Skyrim being a disappointment, though Game Freak being so bad and Sword/Shield being so underwhelming is probably hurting Heart Gold/Soul Silver a bit, similar to how Naughty Dog's actions and TLOU2 is hurting TLOU1.

I've said Skyrim was a disappointment relative to the expectations of it easily getting to finals, which is still the case.

I dunno. what wins, Pokemon HG/SS or Galaxy 2? you can maybe replace Galaxy 2 with Mass Effect 1 if that's easier.

edit: for what it's worth (not much), HG/SS has 17 picks to get to the final, while Galaxy has 2.

Interesting how while all the ports of the past decade (P4G, RE2, HGSS) showed strength, in the end they all got shown the door at the end of their respective divisions.

transience posted...

I dunno. what wins, Pokemon HG/SS or Galaxy 2? you can maybe replace Galaxy 2 with Mass Effect 1 if that's easier.

Why use HGSS when MK8 is still a perfectly good barometer based on percentages, and where the answer becomes a lot more obvious?

MechanicalWall posted...

Why use HGSS when MK8 is still a perfectly good barometer based on percentages, and where the answer becomes a lot more obvious?

I mean I suppose you can pick which game to ignore depending on what fits your preferred narrative better!

ZeldaTPLink posted...

I mean I suppose you can pick which game to ignore depending on what fits your preferred narrative better!

It has nothing to do with a narrative, it's a question of 'how do you get an answer most easily'?

Comparing 2 Mario games is a lot easier than not, and the percentages are all there. What's the justification for using Pokemon instead?

This is definitely the round where the WRPG big dogs assert themselves. I was always a Skyrim believer (until it gets to The Witcher that is) and this still slightly beating what I thought it would do. Pre-leak TLoU likely beats HGSS but post-leak I don't think it does, though I'd give it a shot at regular GSC pre-leak too. Pre-leak TLoU is likely a bit stronger than it was in 2015, and I think the Batman result bore that out. However what happened to TLoU mid-contest was remarkable, and kind of highlights how much more dynamic things can be now with the internet the way it is. Like the inverse of a release day match but nobody could see it coming.

I will say, this is all just furthering my belief that not only is GSC closer to the later Pokemon games than it is to RBY, the difference might not be large at all. We have never seen a post-GSC Pokemon game not run into a clear SFF match, with the possible exception of RSE (which looked normal, but was against a Nintendo game). People talk about X&Y like it's weak, but it was in a clear SFF stomp. I want to see how these games look indirectly, and I wish X&Y was here instead of HGSS.

I don’t think MK8’s strength is obvious at all. Pokemon we at least have a barometer on. MK has been hidden behind Nintendo SFF for quite a while.

Yeah, we have very rarely gotten a clear read on a Mario Kart game. I think the only one before this year was Mario Kart Wii, and that one isn't as clearly liked as SMK, MK64, or even MK8.

transcience posted...

I don’t think MK8’s strength is obvious at all

I'm asking you if you think it's stronger than Galaxy 2.

Alternatively do MK8 OR Pokemon best God of War

MechanicalWall posted...

Alternatively do MK8 OR Pokemon best God of War

do they lose to New Vegas?

if they don't you have to at least give them a chance

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Mario Kart beat God of War just because LOL PS4.

...except for Spider-Man? Looks like Smash might have a reckoning!

if you want to go there, we should probably compare Nier to God of War. I think some people would auto-pick God of War but I’d be a little more hesitant.

MechanicalWall posted...

It has nothing to do with a narrative, it's a question of 'how do you get an answer most easily'?

Comparing 2 Mario games is a lot easier than not, and the percentages are all there. What's the justification for using Pokemon instead?

I still think Mario Kart is a poor series to judge things on. The series hugely benefits from apathy votes and games like Skyrim is pretty much the perfect opponent for it.

There's a decent amount of space between New Vegas and God of War.

MechanicalWall posted...

There's a decent amount of space between New Vegas and God of War.

Yes, 5%

If you wouldn't hesitate to pick them to beat New Vegas, then you're putting them within at least a few percent of GoW.

hey Leon what does Skyrim = Witcher look like with our new results

lol PS4 is a take.

The system has looked really good? And characters on PS4 looked really good in 2018? And God of War looked great until last match which clearly means it either got SFF'd, TW3 is god mode, or both?

I probably WOHLD hesitate to take HGSS over New Vegas. I think I would still take it though, but again, I strongly feel that HGSS=MK8 is telling me more that the bottom half of Div 8 was pretty bad, not that MK8 would be stronger than Galaxy 2, a question no one seems to want to tackle.

transcience posted...

hey Leon what does Skyrim = Witcher look like with our new results

The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim – 50.00%
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 50.00%
Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver Version – 40.32%
Super Mario Galaxy 2 - 39.40%
Mario Kart 8 – 39.10%
NieR: Automata – 38.81%
God of War - 35.52%
Uncharted 4: A Thief’s End – 32.18%
Fallout: New Vegas - 31.78%
Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn – 31.00%
Dark Souls III - 29.26%
Stardew Valley - 28.30%
Journey – 25.02%
Bayonetta 2 – 24.52%
Divinity: Original Sin II – 24.27%
Rayman Legends – 22.60%
Celeste – 22.40%
Mass Effect 3 - 21.60%
Nioh - 18.14%
Crypt of the NecroDancer – 17.65%
Dishonored - 17.60%
Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty - 17.01%
Fate/Grand Order – 16.91%
Destiny - 16.32%
Subnautica – 16.00%
Assassin's Creed Odyssey - 15.93%
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth - 15.77%
Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft – 14.94%
Night in the Woods – 14.55%
The Stanley Parable - 13.09%
The Talos Principle - 10.71%
Return of the Obra Dinn - 10.05%

just for the curious, Witcher 3 would need to get 65.56% on Skyrim for Night in the Woods to finish below Return of the Obra Dinn

LeonhartFour posted...

Fate/Grand Order – 16.91%
Destiny - 16.32%

you love to see it

MechanicalWall posted...

not that MK8 would be stronger than Galaxy 2, a question no one seems to want to tackle.

because no one really knows what to make of MK8

Galaxy 2 is certainly not unbeatable. I would expect it to beat MK8 because of the Nintendo Hierarchy if nothing else, but that doesn't tell us much about their relative strengths.

(I still think Witcher 3 is the clear favorite, for what it's worth)

LeonhartFour posted...

NieR: Automata – 38.81%
God of War - 35.52%

Hah.

Skyrim is f***ed.

thanks. UC4 vs. New Vegas is interesting. I’d pick Witcher based on that, but I don’t have a ton of confidence is gauging either entry, especially after that Fallout 4/ME2 match.

Witcher SFF'D God of War. This isn't some disrespect aimed at Witcher (why would it be, when it's usually our strongest entrants like Link, Mario, and Cloud who manage to SFF other strong entrants), and it isn't an argument aimed to argue for Skyrim's chances.

Skyrim is boned. Persona and Dark Souls have better odds at reaching the final than Skyrim does because there's just not a realistic way it can directly beat Witcher. Hell, its best chance would be to face P5 in the semis and hope it benefits from some end-of-the-contest GameFAQs dickery.

is Mario 3D World stronger than Pokemon HGSS?

adamko posted...

is Mario 3D World stronger than Pokemon HGSS?

I would not expect Mario 3D World to be all that strong. Being a Wii U exclusive dooms it (at least until it comes out on Switch).

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Witcher SFF'D God of War.

Oh no doubt.

The only chance Skyrim has is rSFF. We've seen that what, twice in 18 years?

UltimaterializerX posted...

We've seen that what, twice in 18 years?

still not convinced we've even seen it once

LeonhartFour posted...

still not convinced we've even seen it once

I think that's because we might have slightly different definitions.

I mean, if we're talking about a clearly weaker game beating a stronger game just because the hardcore fanbase flipped the result, there aren't any definitive examples. You can say you think it happened, but the strengths have always been close enough that you can't say it definitely happened.

(mario)

LeonhartFour posted...

just for the curious, Witcher 3 would need to get 65.56% on Skyrim for Night in the Woods to finish below Return of the Obra Dinn

but this could actually happen.

Again, I think it's the use of words like "clearly". What's clear and what isn't? We're never going to have Smash and Odyssey face the exact same competition at the exact same time, so all we can do is analyze and interpret what they did and against who, and I think the prevailing Board 8 opinion now is that Odyssey was indirectly stronger but lost in a direct match.

anyway, like Smash/Mario, Witcher/Skyrim is a SFF match. I think we all expect that one to go Witcher’s way but I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if we get some wildly out of line result, like 70/30 or something.

(wasn't rSFF)

(I'd sooner believe MGS1/MGS3, Melee/Brawl, or Tifa/Sephiroth was rSFF than Mario/Samus or Smash/Odyssey)

CaptainOfCrush posted...

What's clear and what isn't? We're never going to have Smash and Odyssey face the exact same competition at the exact same time, so all we can do is analyze and interpret what they did and against who, and I think the prevailing Board 8 opinion now is that Odyssey was indirectly stronger but lost in a direct match.

it's the prevailing opinion among people who disrespect Spider-Man and have a weird amount of respect for Mortal Kombat 11, maybe...!

I feel like Odyssey vs Smash was just regular SFF, the % was pretty big to be a reversal.

These results nomalized a lot overnight huh

transcience posted...

anyway, like Smash/Mario, Witcher/Skyrim is a SFF match. I think we all expect that one to go Witcher’s way but I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if we get some wildly out of line result, like 70/30 or something.

Well if games being made in the same hemisphere is literally all it takes for SFF to occur, than these two games actually being in the same genre probably will result in some absurd result

And it goes even beyond the fact that they're WRPGs. I said even before the contest started that Skyrim is the BEST opponent Witcher could hope for in semis. It tells the tale of Bethesda's fall from grace and CDPR's ascension as a MASSIVE fan favorite in a single contest match. Very strong juxtaposition.

BotW has been godlike all contest, but it's possible Witcher only dips below 60 once before finals vs P5. That's commendable in its own way

and yeah if you think Western SFF is a real thing Skyrim has no chance

although to be fair Skyrim hasn't faced a heaping helping of western games like Witcher 3 has

I still don't think Skyrim beats Dark Souls. WRPG hierarchy does it in, but even ignoring that, all you need for Dark Souls to win is to pick one if the five or so From Software related subreddits and inform them that their baby needs to prove its worth against the Big Bad Bethesda. They'll come in droves