Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1359

HaRRicH posted...

For those who were talking about Metroid Prime or Skyrim falling off:

Dark Souls VS Metroid Prime, who you got?

with the nintendo boost and a longing desire for a new metroid prime would Beast this contest. Only BOTW could stop it

prime would handily beat Skyrim now.

HaRRicH posted...

For those who were talking about Metroid Prime or Skyrim falling off:

Dark Souls VS Metroid Prime, who you got?

Metroid Prime easily. When in doubt, what's closer to 1998.

HaRRicH posted...

For those who were talking about Metroid Prime or Skyrim falling off:

Dark Souls VS Metroid Prime, who you got?

Dark Souls.
no confidence in Metroid Prime and DS should be stronger considering it even got a remaster recently.

awesome matches today, huge heavy hitters in both matches. It truly is incredible to see a decade of gaming represented like this.

Are there 2 matches tomorrow or 1?

1

lordjers posted...

And Skyrim gets past the 200 barrier.

Thank god for Europe.

tennisboy213 posted...

1

Thx

Persona 5 stalled! it's a start

I take Metroid Prime over both Skyrim/Dark Souls

I took Dark Souls to the semifinals both times, which was obviously a mistake. First time I didn't look at the histories too much and second time I wanted to bank on an upset. The thing is around GameFAQs Dark Souls seems really popular, like if I were to predict a game of the decade for NGG specifically BotW and Dark Souls would be my clear favorites for winning. Same thing seems to be on other sites like Era. I don't go on gaming Subreddits where games like Skyrim and Witcher are apparently still hugely popular. I guess Souls is still ultimately kind of a niche though.

Persona 5 vs Final Fantasy VIII who wins?

this type of lead doesn't change with the low votals we have.

Persona's fight now is trying to perform better on Witcher than Skyrim / Dark Souls does next round

Wanglicious posted...

Dark Souls.
no confidence in Metroid Prime and DS should be stronger considering it even got a remaster recently.

I think Dark Souls wins, but very close. Metroid Prime has lost a lot of it's power, having 17 years of games pass it by since it came out. I would take Persona 5 over Metroid Prime also.

Persona 5 CUT!!! 8 votes tho only.... still something

Dark Souls is the star of the contest in my eyes
I never pictured it to be the 5th or 6th strongest game in the bracket

nuts... yea p5 is done.

Nanis23 posted...

Dark Souls is the star of the contest in my eyes
I never pictured it to be the 5th or 6th strongest game in the bracket

I still think it's Xenoblade Chronicles, or if The Witcher 3 gets better than 44% on Zelda: Breath of the Wild in the finals

Aww man my bracket is officially toast.

What game we rooting for boys?

.

these results kinda throw a wet blanket on the contest

Witcher 3 is gonna cruise through whatever wins the other match (at this point i hope its Skyrim cause Witcher probably SFFs it to the ground and we'll end up with hilarious stats)

but its clearly not strong enough to have even a smidge of hope against BoTW. it'll be fighting to get 40%.

Where are you guys with Skyrim brackets rallying for Skyrim?

the only place to rally efficiently is reddit. but skyrim's subreddit is way too big and moves way too fast for a rally thread to ever get attention.

and Dark Souls banned rallying entirely from their subreddits.

so it is what it is.

Oracle Challenge has nearly everyone predicting BOTW beating SSBU with 62-66%. Seriously? That high?

Has anyone even tried rallying /r/Skyrim? Seems like a pretty lighthearted sub that would take well to it.

INTERWEBUSER posted...

Oracle Challenge has nearly everyone predicting BOTW beating SSBU with 62-66%. Seriously? That high?

Because of SFF. I expect the final result to be in that range you mentioned.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Other M was also before 2015, so we would've seen any damage it caused Prime last time around, and instead it looked stronger than ever.

This. Game has no reason to really change in strength, heck Metroid as a franchise is in a (slightly) better position now than it was in 2015.

Skyrim was still the hot new thing in 2015. It will have declined. I would have taken Metroid Prime over Fallout 3 in 2015 too, and over Mario Odyssey in this contest.

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

Has anyone even tried rallying /r/Skyrim? Seems like a pretty lighthearted sub that would take well to it.

What about Elder Scrolls Online Forums?

LusterSoldier posted...

Because of SFF. I expect the final result to be in that range you mentioned.

I see it the other way around. Typically the blowout 6x-3x% matches are Nintendo vs other, and because this site has such a massive obsession for Nintendo products, they rally behind the brand.

But BOTW vs Smash is Nintendo vs Nintendo, and Smash attracts casual players who are into (relatively) accessible party games. Some people played BOTW for 100 hours; Smash “pros” have played it 10,000 hours or more. Wasn’t Majora’s Mask vs some smash iteration nearly 50-50 a few years ago?

Does Europe not like Dark Souls?

UltimaterializerX posted...

Does Europe not like Dark Souls?

I think they just like Skyrim a little bit more. Skyrim is winning with 54% in the UK, and with these games being really similar trend-wise and as close as the match is, that little bit of extra support is helping it through the deadzone.

INTERWEBUSER posted...

Wasn’t Majora’s Mask vs some smash iteration nearly 50-50 a few years ago?

It was, but those games were nearly equal to begin with, though Brawl might have been slightly stronger indirectly. Majora's Mask won because it had a bandwagon heading into that match after barely beating FFX.

BotW and Smash Ultimate are much farther apart in natural strength than Majora's Mask and Brawl.

Woke up, checked the results.

Persona 5 is damn strong.

Skyrim is barely holding on. This I didn't expected it.

Seanchan posted...

Other M was a f***ing epic disaster but it's not a "Prime" game, so that saves it.

Still a better story than Rise of Skywalker!

Europe really loves Skyrim.

Also, to all the people saying the Xenoblade result s bad for Smash. Xenoblade was on a bandwagon. That had been the case for like every single other thing in contest history that advanced with such a low prediction percentage.

smash will get curbstomped by Zelda SFF so we'll never know in the end.

would you still take Smash to beat Witcher 3 after this contest? i dont think i would

I'm not sure honestly. Today and the Galaxy 2 result tell me it's not that far off. I don't think I would either, but I think it would be quite close and I think it says more about Witcher, which is simply stronger than most people thought it would be pre-contest.

On the subject of stars of the contest, while Dark Souls has had perhaps the largest boost, nobody expected Xenoblade to be right up there with it and The Witcher in terms of strength increases. So that’s why it’s locked in as the star unless something crazy happens.

Here’s a question: what are some bandwagoned entries that kept some of that strength? MM and Vivi spring to mind.

L-Block I suppose. It has clearly been better than it was initially in 07 since.

Ganondorf in 2005 seemed to be riding a bit of a bandwagon from the Villains contest into 2005. Twilight Princess hype can also be cited as a reason for him to increase in strength, but I don't think that accounts for all of his increase. He should have lost to Auron pretty handily based on 2003 adjusted for Magus being a fraud, but when 67% of the brackets have you winning a fourpack against a strong FF fan favorite, it means you still got that bandwagon.

Obviously it is never going to win but how much would Witcher (or Skyrim if it somehow wins) need to get on BoTW to be considered a 'star'?

Obviously above 40%.

Safer_777 posted...

Woke up, checked the results.

Persona 5 is damn strong.

Skyrim is barely holding on. This I didn't expected it.

Eh Skyrim has a pretty confortable lead which is going up.

I think this is over unless there is a massive rally.

handsomeboy2012 posted...

Obviously it is never going to win but how much would Witcher (or Skyrim if it somehow wins) need to get on BoTW to be considered a 'star'?

Anything over 40 looks pretty good for it. But to be Star of the Contest? Probably over 45.

57 might be a bit high but it's looking like Witcher 3 will at least get to 56.

On the subject of the Western SFF thing, I think I have my own theory for it. It's not Western SFF, it's WRPG SFF. Or Open World SFF. You know, the genre that has doninated gaming this decade.

AC is not an RPG I think but it's open world. ME3 is a WRPG. God of War is an action series turned WRPG. Skyrim? WRPG.

That means other types of games might escape SFF from Witcher even if they are western. Problem is, I don't know what other western games can even be revelant on gameFAQs (shooters? MOBAs? LOL). All relevant ones are WRPGs and Witcher can SFF them just like Link will SFF Nintendo games and Final Fantasy will SFF other JRPGs.

I guess it's also kind of the fault of industry because after Skyrim they decided every game needed to be some open world thing with RPG elements. At least the single-player ones, but we don't care about the competitive multiplayer franchises here. The indies tend to show more variety, but they have a ceiling here too.

So yeah Geraldo dominates because he is the best game of the only western genre that is not complete fodder in this site.

Well on one hand my second chance bracket is dead now. But on the other my OG bracket stays in the top 50 if Skyrim gets to the finals, which I think it can now. After everything Dark Souls did I think it beats Persona 5 very comfortably.

Lightning Strikes posted...

On the subject of stars of the contest, while Dark Souls has had perhaps the largest boost, nobody expected Xenoblade to be right up there with it and The Witcher in terms of strength increases. So that’s why it’s locked in as the star unless something crazy happens.

Here’s a question: what are some bandwagoned entries that kept some of that strength? MM and Vivi spring to mind.

Hey some of us picked Xenoblade’s path correctly!

ZeldaTPLink posted...

AC is not an RPG I think but it's open world.

Assassins Creed Odyssey is pretty much a Witcher 3 clone in every way, so its definitely an RPG now.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidthier/2018/10/09/assassins-creed-odyssey-is-the-heir-to-the-witcher-3s-throne/#1ea950471e2f
https://www.scmp.com/yp/discover/entertainment/tech-gaming/article/3057412/assassins-creed-odyssey-feels-more-rpg
https://www.gamesradar.com/assassins-creed-odyssey-review/

Thats why Witcher 3 was its worst possible matchup, since its Witcher 3 just worse in every way.

Well if the only way for a Western game to have GameFAQs strength is to be a weaker version of The Witcher, then the SFF makes sense.

I don't know that if at this point, people were hoping Witcher was gonna bust P5's balls and put some ridiculous number up on it, but I think this is actually a very good performance, and one that makes it a pretty definitive #2 in the bracket, above Smash and Mario.

Thankfully both Persona games went up against an RDR game (at least by proxy). P4 barely scrapes by; P5 beats Portal 2 with more than 7%. If P4 and RDR1 mostly equal XBC, which puts up 41% on Smash despite potential SFF, then it's reasonable to expect that Persona 5 might actually be VERY close to Smash (and if there WAS SFF in that match, which we all expected, then P5 probably beats Smash outright).

Point being, P5 didn't get to look good until Division finals because it's half of the division was a massive joke. Its Portal match showed that in relation to everything but Zelda, it's actually VERY strong, and Witcher is casually breaking 55% on it.

MechanicalWall posted...

I don't know that if at this point, people were hoping Witcher was gonna bust P5's balls and put some ridiculous number up on it, but I think this is actually a very good performance, and one that makes it a pretty definitive #2 in the bracket, above Smash and Mario.

Oh yeah, 56% against P5 is fantastic. I was hoping for a little bit more but it doesn't make a difference anyway. The number today doesn't change the fact that it's getting to the finals and then losing, and I don't think any number really could have changed that.