Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1360

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Do we still think FF14 is weaker than FF15?

if they're equal BOTW gets 68.13% on Skyrim

so I'd wager that BOTW just overperformed on FFXV for whatever the reason (or the bottom just fell out after the game was abandoned)

that's TRE

X-Stats, part 1:

Division 5+6

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt – 50.00%
Persona 5 – 43.47%
Super Mario Galaxy 2 – 39.40%
Portal 2 – 36.98%
God of War – 35.52%
Red Dead Redemption 2 – 34.40%
Fallout: New Vegas – 31.78%
Dark Souls III – 29.26%
Animal Crossing: New Leaf – 29.17%
Stardew Valley – 28.30%
Sonic Mania – 27.92%
Kingdom Hearts III – 27.84%
Tomb Raider – 25.66%
Assassin’s Creed IV: Black Flag – 25.16%
Sid Meier’s Civilization V – 21.92%
Mass Effect 3 – 21.60%
Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA – 20.80%
Super Meat Boy – 19.63%
Street Fighter V – 19.53%
Heavy Rain – 18.87%
Nioh – 18.14%
Disco Elysium – 17.78%
Dishonored – 17.60%
Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty – 17.01%
Destiny – 16.32%
Assassin’s Creed Odyssey – 15.93%
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth – 15.77%
Slay the Spire – 13.65%
The Stanley Parable – 13.09%
Dying Light – 12.80%
Slay the Spire – 12.19%
The Talos Principle – 10.71%
Return of the Obra Dinn – 10.05%

LeonhartFour posted...

Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver Version – 40.18%
The Last of Us – 39.46%
Mario Kart 8 – 39.10%
NieR: Automata – 38.68%

I feel TLOU holding up well here despite the leaks is noteworthy

honestly i'd just take Nier over Pokemon now.
not because i believe it's technically stronger, solely because i believe if a game can get a bandwagon, it's Nier Automata.

but i'm 1000% biased considering i've already considered my life is gonna be consumed by SINoALICE in 2 months.

MechanicalWall posted...

I feel TLOU holding up well here despite the leaks is noteworthy

Eh, I'd have taken TLOU to beat all those games pre-contest.

HaRRicH posted...

...did we have a BOP back then or did somebody take advantage of their name change?

I made the account all those years ago.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

I made the account all those years ago.

...the f***.
i know i'm prone to underestimating our mod robot but what the f*** dude.

charmander6000 posted...

The Board Odds Project started during the first games contest in 2004.

Appreciate the fun-fact! Man I love the amount of long-time effort users have put in here.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

I made the account all those years ago.

The foresight, my goodness. Nice.

The weird thing I'm noticing in that stats is how Undertale is basically performing up to its "standards" of the Melee match (20/21% registered users).

It did not get any stronger than that unless you think Ultimate at its peak > Melee like what happened with Brawl in GotD1.

More stuff to throw on the pile of BotW being borderline Top 5 before MM ruins everything

Unlike most other no.1 seeds Witcher 3 opponents were all good games liked by a good amount of people.

Is it confirmed there is a bonus poll?
If so i would like Best Developer of the Decade.

ShortReplies posted...

Is it confirmed there is a bonus poll?
If so i would like Best Developer of the Decade.

We could always run that as a regular PotD while the bonus matches are in progress, or on the day after they end.

Luster's got the right idea.

I'm thinking of using RE2/Three Houses and Smash/GoW to make adjustments once all this is over.

We'll see how it looks.

5 minute X-Stats (2 hours late):

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild – 50.00%
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 40.88%
Super Mario Odyssey – 36.02%
Xenoblade Chronicles – 33.02%
Persona 4 Golden – 32.88%
Red Dead Redemption – 32.34%
Grand Theft Auto – 32.18%
Mass Effect 2 – 31.67%
Resident Evil 2 – 30.11%
Bloodborne – 30.01%
Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age – 29.78%
Marvel’s Spider-Man – 29.75%
The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds – 29.38%
Horizon Zero Dawn – 28.43%
Monster Hunter: World – 27.83%
Fire Emblem: Three Houses – 26.65%
Cuphead – 25.58%
DOOM – 25.55%
Borderlands 2 – 25.54%
Fire Emblem: Awakening – 25.27%
Minecraft – 25.20%
Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice – 24.59%
Resident Evil 7 – 23.47%
Bravely Default: Flying Fairy – 23.40%
Bayonetta – 21.45%
Fallout 4 – 20.98%
Devil May Cry 5 – 20.67%
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night – 20.61%
Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch – 20.38%
Ori and the Blind Forest – 20.13%
Final Fantasy XV – 19.76%
Hollow Knight – 19.594016%
Shovel Knight – 19.589696%
Octopath Traveler – 19.44%
Dragon Age: Inquisition – 19.36%
Deus Ex: Human Revolution – 18.82%
Undertale – 18.17%
Dead Space 2 – 17.89%
South Park: The Stick of Truth – 17.77%
Overwatch – 17.62%
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze – 17.61%
Bastion – 16.73%
XCOM 2 – 16.23%
The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series – 15.98%
Death Stranding – 15.54%
Halo: Reach – 15.14%
The Outer Worlds – 14.98%
FTL: Faster Than Light – 14.62%
Tales of Berseria – 14.57%
Splatoon 2 – 14.24%
Dragon’s Dogma – 13.95%
Tekken 7 – 13.92%
Ghost Trick: Phantom Detective – 13.66%
Baba Is You – 13.34%
Life is Strange – 13.28%
Dota 2 – 12.24%
VVVVVV – 11.86%
Call of Duty: Black Ops – 11.69%
The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky SC – 11.51%
Fortnite – 10.84%
Danganronpa 2: Goodbye Despair – 10.16%
Mortal Kombat 11 – 10.11%
What Remains of Edith Finch – 10.02%
INSIDE – 7.13%

Hollow Knight – 19.594016%
Shovel Knight – 19.589696%

Checks out.

damn you double SFF

or Zelda/FF SFF

or everything is SFF

BotW Open World SFF'd FF15. Witcher 3 is going to get demolished.

I flat out added a Zora engagement ring to the Zelda proposing to Link picture, because I had to amuse myself.

SFF happens because both are Games

SFF is when there's more overlap than we'd normally see. Would FFXV really have looked any better against Witcher 3 or Skyrim than it did against BotW?

handsomeboy2012 posted...

SFF happens because both are Games

Games Against More Entertainment Factor Aiding Questionable Stats

LeonhartFour posted...

Portal 2 – 36.98%
God of War – 35.52%
Red Dead Redemption 2 – 34.40%

We've talked a lot about GoW getting SFF'd but this is a plenty reasonable place for it to have landed.

As a reminder, Odyssey got 32.88% on Breath of the Wild in the 2017 Game of the Year poll. Depending on where the final % of this match shakes out I might end up using that as a way to adjust Smash/Odyssey SFF.

HaRRicH posted...

We've talked a lot about GoW getting SFF'd but this is a plenty reasonable place for it to have landed.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7471-best-of-2018-game-of-the-year

Unless you think it's fallen off, not really.

HaRRicH posted...

We've talked a lot about GoW getting SFF'd but this is a plenty reasonable place for it to have landed.

I mean, I can see the argument both ways. GoW got 61% on RDR2 in 2018 GOTY and it's only worth 51.58% here.

Fun fact: Witcher 3 faced Binding of Isaac directly in 2015. Through GoW>Nioh>Binding of Isaac, God of War is projected to get 57% on 2015 Witcher 3. Unless you think GoW SFFd Nioh and then didn't get SFFd by Witcher.

BOTW just averaged 67.30% that hour

the Euro vote is going to be ugly

KamikazePotato posted...

As a reminder, Odyssey got 32.88% on Breath of the Wild in the 2017 Game of the Year poll. Depending on where the final % of this match shakes out I might end up using that as a way to adjust Smash/Odyssey SFF.

I don’t think this really works any better than what we got. maybe the numbers look nicer but it’s not a good measure. Zelda would logically SFF Mario a lot more than Smash, and we’ve seen it in action with Mario 64 getting obliterated by Ocarina.

The more variables you throw into the data, the less reliable it's going to be. I wouldn't want to use anything more than a 3-way from GOTYs for X-Stats adjustments.

oh, and I doubt my opinion means much, but I would very much be on the side of not adjusting God of War. there just isn’t any history of it being worth more outside of a GOTY poll, and I wouldn’t want to boost New Vegas, or more specifically Dark Souls 3, without a real reason.

I defer to whatever the guys who put in the work decide to do. Honestly, I've used X-Stats to help with predictions maybe once in the past decade. They're fun to see more than anything.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

I defer to whatever the guys who put in the work decide to do. Honestly, I've used X-Stats to help with predictions maybe once in the past decade. They're fun to see more than anything.

yeah I mostly do them for fun nowadays since the gaps between contests are so large now, especially games contests

I don't use them directly for predictions all that much anymore

KamikazePotato posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7471-best-of-2018-game-of-the-year

Unless you think it's fallen off, not really.

Or if you don't trust GotY polls.

I don’t think many do (and I agree that they’re more a fun exercise than anything) though the stats that go onto Ngamer’s site do get taken out of context forevermore.

kinda like how Chrono Trigger wins the 2015 contest with ease. I love that result and hope it was true, but there’s no way of knowing how legit it is.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7953-division-5-round-1-binding-of-isaac-rebirth-vs-nioh
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7998-division-5-round-2-nioh-vs-god-of-war

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6103-best-game-ever-day-14-the-witcher-3-vs-binding-of-isaac

There is zero chance GoW doesn't get some sort of xstat adjustment

Or the witcher is stronger now

pjbasis posted...

Or the witcher is stronger now

well yeah but it'd have to absolutely destroy its 2015 self if you take it all at face value

which I guess is possible!

transcience posted...

I don’t think many do (and I agree that they’re more a fun exercise than anything) though the stats that go onto Ngamer’s site do get taken out of context forevermore.

kinda like how Chrono Trigger wins the 2015 contest with ease. I love that result and hope it was true, but there’s no way of knowing how legit it is.

I buy into CT winning the 2015 contest with relative ease. No way does the Ocarina of Time we saw that year beats it.

Ocarina in a post-BOTW world would reverse that result though.

based on the first few rounds, yeah, I'd agree. but it's so hard to say if that holds when facing the king. yoblazer will tell you -- you don't just assume that Ocarina loses without exceptional proof. that's where those adjustments, while necessary, are dangerous.

oh I'll tell ya alright

pjbasis posted...

Or the witcher is stronger now

If it completely demolished SMG2 and Persona 5 then put up good numbers on BotW, I would be fine with this. But those results don't look good enough for what Witcher 3 did to GoW.

I’m just saying Ocarina wasn’t the king that year. But as long as Nintendo doesn’t screw things up completely again, Ocarina beats CT handily right now, but it wouldn’t that year.

People put WAY too much stock in 10-way GOTY polls around here. When has that play ever paid off?

God of War would be far from the first game to drop off a cliff from Game of the Year polls.

Unless we want to argue that Resident Evil 4, a game best known for being on the GameCube, is linked to Metal Gear Solid 4 to the same extent as Twilight Princess was to Brawl.

I get that argument KP, it makes sense. Still, pj's got a good point too -- this was Witcher 3 like two months after facing the Binding of Isaac:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6205-best-of-2015-game-of-the-year-final-vote

(suspecting we agree FO4 has dropped)

My comment was more about the smell test -- I took it to barely lose to FO:NV pre-contest and was off by a few percent so I come at this humbly, but now we're near the end and it feels like a good match with Portal 2. RDR2 has an argument for improving too since RDR1 was a borderline division winner. I've done a lot of doubting SMG2's strength, but despite GoW's strong showing in 2018's GotY and understanding it's earned its praise GoW hasn't exactly struck me as sustaining that same type of showing this contest.

I don't trust western SFF as concept yet and it looks right where it landed. Stats aren't there to match feelings, granted -- I just think it looks fine now that we see more context on what getting blown out by Witcher 3 means.

Anecdotally, I tried to play GoW for the first time this year and found it to be hot garbage.

Aesthetically pleasing garbage, but still trash.

So it falling off a cliff makes sense to me at least!

transience posted...

you don't just assume that Ocarina loses without exceptional proof.

Like beating Mass Effect 3.