Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1360

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Ocarina beats CT handily right now, but it wouldn’t that year.

Have we ever had in-depth discussions as to how CT might have gone from getting embarrassed by Mario 64 in 2009 (a result we actually saw) to beating Ocarina six years later? Keep in mind that the DS port had already released by the time of CT's lackluster 2009 contest.

I think it's reasonable to assert that all SNES games boosted (or were finally "unleashed" against modern games) in 2015, but even if assuming this, CT will have needed to boost considerably more than the others to become the #1 game on the site. Remember that strengthening yourself relative to RE4 or MGS3 is one thing. Doing so against Ocarina, when the primary basis of your boost is being a game from Nintendo's golden era, is entirely another.

FFDragon posted...

Anecdotally, I tried to play GoW for the first time this year and found it to be hot garbage.

Aesthetically pleasing garbage, but still trash.

So it falling off a cliff makes sense to me at least!

Really? What parts did you dislike most? I went in with mild expectations and walked away loving it.

Why is Binding of Isaac not being questioned here?

I know it's hard to imagine something going from trash to turbo trash, but that game was still semi relevant in the indiesphere in 2015. It's not hard to imagine it having gotten weaker in the intervening 5 years.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

God of War would be far from the first game to drop off a cliff from Game of the Year polls.

Unless we want to argue that Resident Evil 4, a game best known for being on the GameCube, is linked to Metal Gear Solid 4 to the same extent as Twilight Princess was to Brawl.

I think the games the dropped off also come with their fanbase noticeably souring on the game after having time to think over how much they really liked the game. As far as I know, God of War is still well liked.

If you could give a Chess board steroids, don't get me wrong, I would be increasingly scared on the pawns...but I would be way more afraid of the Queen.

I imagine that's the part of CT's argument anyway for the SNEnami that hit us that contest.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Really? What parts did you dislike most? I went in with mild expectations and walked away loving it.

For me, exploring was the worst part. Simply moving around in that game feels bad.

The combat's not great either (I played it shortly after DMC5, which was much better on this front).

CT boosted a lot but the main reason the power balance changed so much is that our #1 and #2 games got significantly weaker relative to the rest of the field. 2009 Ocarina and FF7 were untouchable. The Ocarina of 2009 would never be caught with its pants down getting 65% against FF9, and FF7 might not even be our #3 anymore. Chrono Trigger did very well to crush FFX and Melee the way it did/would have, but it wouldn't be a conversation if OoT didn't look so off its game.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Have we ever had in-depth discussions as to how CT might have gone from getting embarrassed by Mario 64 in 2009 (a result we actually saw) to beating Ocarina six years later? Keep in mind that the DS port had already released by the time of CT's lackluster 2009 contest.

I think it's reasonable to assert that all SNES games boosted (or were finally "unleashed" against modern games) in 2015, but even if assuming this, CT will have needed to boost considerably more than the others to become the #1 game on the site. Remember that strengthening yourself relative to RE4 or MGS3 is one thing. Doing so against Ocarina, when the primary basis of your boost is being a game from Nintendo's golden era, is entirely another.

It looks like you summoned a Poll of the Day!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8087-whats-your-all-time-favorite-sega-game-system

vs.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5870-whats-your-all-time-favorite-sega-game-system

3D Gaming is dying here, but 2D is staying as strong as ever!

MechanicalWall posted...

Why is Binding of Isaac not being questioned here?

I know it's hard to imagine something going from trash to turbo trash, but that game was still semi relevant in the indiesphere in 2015. It's not hard to imagine it having gotten weaker in the intervening 5 years.

I'll jump on this one and say with SMB and BoI being my two favorite games of the decade and having been burnt by both of them this contest, a side of me's been wondering if Ed McMillan's impact was simply bigger in the first half of the decade.

Aww man, when I posted Dreamcast was still under 20% and Genesis was over 50%.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Aww man, when I posted Dreamcast was still under 20% and Genesis was over 50%.

Board vote claims another victim.

I wouldn't be surprised if Binding of Isaac fell off. The amount it has to fall off + Witcher 3 has to boost for GoW's 2020 result against Witcher 3 to be legitimate is astronomical. Probably more than you realize unless you're really plugged into how stats are made. As someone who has been hyping Witcher 3 since the bracket came out (why oh why did I not keep it in the finals), I'm not remotely buying it.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Board vote claims another victim.

I mean Dreamcast has still fallen a decent amount! It doesn't take much in these polls of the day to show a significant shift, just look at the Woman Boost!

KamikazePotato posted...

(why oh why did I not keep it in the finals)

Good news! You wrote that down:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78438768/935651475

(at least you didn't have it losing to God of War like me >_>)

Talking about Witcher 3 boosting here, I wonder how much of it was before or after Geralt's near run in 2018. He snuck through his competitive eight-pack and impressed against Auron at that time. Was his boosting done then, or was there more since then?

I'm pretty sure transience's logic for taking 2015 to go deep was our diminishing vote totals would help a game like Chrono Trigger. GameFAQs is probably the biggest CT fansite on the internet, and you're talking about the hardcore group that's still here and probably still loves it. CT has generally looked the weakest when the vote totals were the highest.

HaRRicH posted...

Talking about Witcher 3 boosting here, I wonder how much of it was before or after Geralt's near run in 2018. He snuck through his competitive eight-pack and impressed against Auron at that time. Was his boosting done then, or was there more since then?

Presumably the Netflix series and Switch port have helped Witcher further in this contest, but overall I feel Witcher has spread a lot like Dark Souls; a ridiculously strong and vocal fanbase runs around and evangelizes for their games to anyone who'll listen. Its word of mouth is insane; time seems to continue ripening it.

yeah, I took 2015 to be the SNES year. I took CT to the finals but also FF6 over FF7, thinking that we were in for a big SNES year. and we were, just not big enough to overcome the hierarchy.

LeonhartFour posted...

BOTW just averaged 67.30% that hour

the Euro vote is going to be ugly

 https://i.imgur.com/Zv4Go4v.gif (click to expand) 

Leonhart4 posted...

I'm pretty sure transience's logic for taking 2015 to go deep was our diminishing vote totals would help a game like Chrono Trigger. GameFAQs is probably the biggest CT fansite on the internet, and you're talking about the hardcore group that's still here and probably still loves it. CT has generally looked the weakest when the vote totals were the highest.

Bingo. Boil the site's base even further, and you have that little sitewide ranking where all the big social boards got together and ranked their games, and CT was number one, suggesting it was the most popular game across the day to day user base. That was my inclination that Chrono Trigger was on the rise, and that's why I took it the final four that year, and it's why I will always be salty for Melee ruining everything for me.

I don't think that God of War GotY result should be taken at face value. For one thing, lesser games in GotY polls here tend to die on the vine, so I'm not surprised these stats project it 10% lower on RDR2. More importantly, the very GotY title is one with a certain prestige, and casually invested users who had maybe only played Smash Ultimate from 2018 likely didn't feel equipped to judge the GotY and skipped the polls altogether.

In other news, I decided to whip up a list of what I think are the 10 strongest games for every relevant system on GameFAQs: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1h7JtpgQf0hPN-Eh2TwRIwIC-rb12SEOQpfmYh5c_Sps/edit?usp=sharing

MetalmindStats posted...

In other news, I decided to whip up a list of what I think are the 10 strongest games for every relevant system on GameFAQs: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1h7JtpgQf0hPN-Eh2TwRIwIC-rb12SEOQpfmYh5c_Sps/edit?usp=sharing

Looking at the NES list, I'm pretty confident in Mario 1 > Zelda 1 and very very confident in FF1 > MM2.

Yeah smb1 should take loz1 no prob

Mario 1 has beaten LoZ in the past!

https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r6/botw-Reala.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r6/botw-UltimaterializerX.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r6/botw-Agent_M.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r6/botw-_SecretSquirrel.png

https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r6/ssbm-Reala.jpg
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r6/ssbm-_SecretSquirrel.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r6/ssbm-NowItsAngeTime.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r6/ssbm-UltimaterializerX.png

This is a little late, but when you see the problem...

?ssbm?

MoogleKupo141 posted...

?ssbm?

Yeah, I found it amusing enough to bother posting the URLs several hours into the match.

For Arcade, Pong loses to anything people have played and halfway respect. There's Street Fighter IV among stuff we've seen in contests but I don't see Ms. Pac-Man or Final Fight losing to it either. I'm sure people can think of others.

Metroid 1 has never really gotten a fair shot to show us much because it gets stuck behind Mario. Think I'd take it over Mega Man 3 at least simply due to its legacy.

Ecco the Dolphin > Shining Force 1 is not a result I see happening on RPGfaqs and maybe not outside of it either. Ecco is atmospheric but it's...not really the most friendly and playable game out there. Go look at its average gamefaqs rating.

Metroid Fusion got like 45% on DPP in GotD1. I don't see it or Zero Mission losing to Advance Wars.

Think I'd probably take REmake > Mario Sunshine? Hard to gauge that one though.

As far as Brawl has fallen in terms of people caring, I gotta think it beats Skyward Sword, which has never been that widely cared about.

Would not trust Super Paper Mario against Mega Man 9 or Donkey Kong Country Returns.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4140-northeast-division-round-2-grand-theft-auto-iii-vs-half-life
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4168-northeast-division-round-3-god-of-war-vs-half-life-2

In a post PS4-GoW world I think I trust God of War 1 to still be better than GTA?

AxemRedRanger posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4140-northeast-division-round-2-grand-theft-auto-iii-vs-half-life
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4168-northeast-division-round-3-god-of-war-vs-half-life-2

In a post PS4-GoW world I think I trust God of War 1 to still be better than GTA?

Yeah. GTA is weird in that the new entries obsolete the new entries, and there's no sign of any real nostalgic feeling for the PS2 era titles.

Also, GTA3 was one of those titles that I think benefited from a Game of the Decade boost due to popularizing the entire 3D sandbox genre, so logically it should decline in a non GotD setting.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Looking at the NES list, I'm pretty confident in Mario 1 > Zelda 1 and very very confident in FF1 > MM2.

I have no strong argument about Zelda 1 > Mario 1, just my gut feeling that Zelda holds up better than Mario in this day and age. As for MM2 > FF1, I see the latter's strength depending mostly on its brand name, one whose prestige has diminished quite a bit since. Meanwhile, Mega Man X's 2015 outperformance implies good things for MM2 versus its 2009 failures.

AxemRedRanger posted...

-snip-

I excluded games that didn't come out for the platform of choice in North America, such as Street Fighter IV for Arcade. I just don't feel like GameFAQs cares about Final Fight even slightly, and I'd easily take Pong to prevail with apathy/respect votes. Ms. Pac-Man is a good shout, though, and maybe I shouldn't have scrapped Tekken 3.

Shining Force was another game I scrapped, but on second thought, you're right that just being a semi-notable JRPG on JRPGFAQs is enough to edge its way into the Genesis's terrible bottom half.

I honestly forgot about the GBA Metroid games. 45% on DPP is a great result by GBA standards even before considering how much all the Metroidvania entrants have improved since 2010.

I'd probably agree with you about Brawl > Skyward Sword if it were a direct match, but Skyward Sword at least retains somewhat of a fanbase on top of some mainline Zelda appeal to hold up better against most opponents. Mega Man 9 was another game I forgot about, specifically how good it looked in the original GotD, and while I don't necessarily trust it to hold up, it's very likely ahead of Super Paper Mario at least.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Also, GTA3 was one of those titles that I think benefited from a Game of the Decade boost due to popularizing the entire 3D sandbox genre, so logically it should decline in a non GotD setting.

Eh, I agree with the first part of that, but not necessarily with the second. I think GTA3 actually holds up the best of the whole series because its respect/influence votes outweigh GTA's typical antivotes and attrition over time, kind of like how Halo 1 is the only remotely relevant game in its series now. On the note of attrition, though, Vice City was comfortably breaking 40% on FF8 in 2015 before Tumblr swooped in.

As for God of War, I think the new God of War, despite its differences, has largely obsoleted the previous entries in the series. Much like what Skyrim did to Oblivion, I expect it to have fallen off at least a bit since the original GotD.

It's honestly fascinating how close in strength all the Rockstar games seem to be. Every other series and every other company has a defined hierarchy. GTA3, GTASA, GTAVC, GTAV, RDR, and RDR2 all seem to be within the same ballpark and I couldn't rank them if I tried. The only one that seems outright bad is GTA4 and that's because no one likes it.

KamikazePotato posted...

It's honestly fascinating how close in strength all the Rockstar games seem to be. Every other series and every other company has a defined hierarchy. GTA3, GTASA, GTAVC, GTAV, RDR, and RDR2 all seem to be within the same ballpark and I couldn't rank them if I tried. The only one that seems outright bad is GTA4 and that's because no one likes it.

I suppose if you assume the PS2 era games have remained relatively constant, that would be the case. Hell, IV wasn't even that far from the pack in 2010, but I agree it's fallen.

The big problem the PS2 era games have is that they compete for the limited nomination slots from its fans, so III and IV will probably never been seen again, V will probably suffer the same fate when VI arrives, and VC and SA will get low seeds and get stuck against stronger competition from now on. SA probably lucked out to draw Shovel Knight in 2015, and I'd be hesitant to pick it to win the rematch.

I'm all for adjusting God of War strength a little bit, but I'm worried about using GotY as a reference.

Also Mario 1 once beat Zelda 1 and that won't change. They hold up as well now as 10 years ago and it probably won't ever change.

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt vs. Persona 5
Registered Vote Result:
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 5249 (57.54%)
Persona 5 - 3874 (42.46%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 4711 (54.42%)
Persona 5 - 3946 (45.58%)

Dark Souls vs. The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
Registered Vote Result:
Dark Souls - 4345 (47.61%)
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim - 4781 (52.39%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Dark Souls - 4042 (46.70%)
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim - 4614 (53.30%)

The Witcher 3 did around 3% better with registered users, though that difference is likely tainted by rallies. The Persona 5 rallies appeared to be more effective than the Dark Souls rallies, but they only brought in an estimated total of about 200 to 600 extra votes. This match day wasn't even the highest anonymous user vote totals we've gotten since the contest returned from the break.

Dark Souls does around 1% better with registered users, as well as proving that the Dark Souls rallies had almost no impact on this match.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFS3SfH6sAhPdS85H7BpuFIkr9SayeF7AhMw-wrEBng/pub

The Venn diagram of the people who still come to GameFAQs and people who played/loved CT back in the day is probably much higher than that of people who were coming here in the mid-00s (many of whom may have started gaming around 2000).

Up to 29th on the second chance leaderboard! Having a perfect bracket and just decent predictions get you far.

Grrr stupid Dark Souls upset pick cost me the leaderboard.

MetalmindStats posted...

I don't think that God of War GotY result should be taken at face value. For one thing, lesser games in GotY polls here tend to die on the vine, so I'm not surprised these stats project it 10% lower on RDR2. More importantly, the very GotY title is one with a certain prestige, and casually invested users who had maybe only played Smash Ultimate from 2018 likely didn't feel equipped to judge the GotY and skipped the polls altogether.

Another possible explanation for God of War doing so well on Smash Ultimate in the GotY polls is because God of War came out much earlier in the year, and more people had time to play it compared to Smash Ultimate which only came out a month earlier. God of War may have had a playrate advantage (not in terms of actual playrate) as the gap in playrate between the 2 games was a lot smaller. After that GotY poll happened, Smash Ultimate would have widened its playrate advantage over God of War.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

It looks like you summoned a Poll of the Day!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8087-whats-your-all-time-favorite-sega-game-system

vs.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5870-whats-your-all-time-favorite-sega-game-system

3D Gaming is dying here, but 2D is staying as strong as ever!

I think the difference is solely due to not having a "I've never played any of those" option in the older poll. I can't see any reason why the numbers would change in the past 5 years. "No one" (in the relative sense) is going back to old Sega systems.

Mac Arrowny posted...

For me, exploring was the worst part. Simply moving around in that game feels bad.

The combat's not great either (I played it shortly after DMC5, which was much better on this front).

As a major fan of the older games, the new God of War took a while to find its rhythm. It starts slow but the combat options really open up around the halfway point.

If you don't like the exploring though... I'm assuming you at least got to the World Serpent? If you got at least an hour or two beyond that and aren't enjoying yourself, yeah, I'd give up on the game too.

That Sega poll shows what the inclusion a “none of these” option can do - the Dreamcast and Mega Drive clearly benefitted from apathy voting last time and have plumetted while the less popular systems stayed the same.

LusterSoldier posted...

Another possible explanation for God of War doing so well on Smash Ultimate in the GotY polls is because God of War came out much earlier in the year, and more people had time to play it compared to Smash Ultimate which only came out a month earlier. God of War may have had a playrate advantage (not in terms of actual playrate) as the gap in playrate between the 2 games was a lot smaller. After that GotY poll happened, Smash Ultimate would have widened its playrate advantage over God of War.

IIRC you used to believe that games that came out later in the year had the advantage in GotY polls. Do you not feel that way anymore?

Obviously Smash works differently.

I'm not even sarcastic.

If God of War 2018 gets put to where ME2 is, how far does GoW move?

Man, no NES game is going to "hold up" better than Mario 1 as long as this site is full of old people. Everybody respects that game if you're of a certain age. It beat Zelda 1 in 2009 when OoT was crushing everything and Mario Galaxy was losing to Call of Duty.

we’d have to see the final, but it’d suggest Zelda beats Witcher with about 59% I think.

If we assume P5 = ME2, Zelda wins by about 63.5%

I do think P5 is a step above ME2, so Witcher is likely to break 40% imo. Maybe higher if there's a large rally.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Really? What parts did you dislike most? I went in with mild expectations and walked away loving it.

Really it was everything. I hated the camera, controlling Kratos felt clunky (and this is from someone that can make RE tank controls look silky smooth), the axe felt like a severe downgrade from chain swords, and combat was unfun and janky.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

IIRC you used to believe that games that came out later in the year had the advantage in GotY polls. Do you not feel that way anymore?

That was seen as a popular theory for many years. Whatever benefit a game gets from coming out later in the year (being more relevant and talked about) is balanced out by the lower playrate that the game has when the GotY polls are in progress. Judging from some of the results in this contest, a lot of really well-liked games weren't quite as strong as we hoped. This could stem from playrate issues and would clearly indicate that playrate is the most important aspect in determining game strength. A game with a high playrate has a solid foundation to be a potentially strong game. Everything else (such as nostalgia and game popularity) works off the playrate.

Late year releases also have far less time for the fans of the game to shift their opinion of the game closer to the negative side before the GotY polls begin. Such a thing was likely a big reason why KH3 couldn't make it into the GotY polls, as it was a January release and fans had more time to feel a sense of disappointment from what the game had to offer. GotY winners usually being late year releases may reflect that a lot of high profile releases typically release in the September to November time period.

Mass Effect 2 and Resident Evil 2 won GotY in years where they came out in January. The Witcher 3 came out in May, and produced the largest win by percentage in a 1v1 GotY poll. And of course, there's BotW's huge win in 2017. There have been more cases of early year games winning GotY on this site than I first thought.

FFDragon posted...

Really it was everything. I hated the camera, controlling Kratos felt clunky (and this is from someone that can make RE tank controls look silky smooth), the axe felt like a severe downgrade from chain swords, and combat was unfun and janky.

Spoilers
You DO get the Blades of Chaos back maybe halfway through. And they are still just as awesome as they ever were.