Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1361

Just curious, what kinds of things do we see in case we're overestimating Odyssey and we have Odyssey = Galaxy 2?

HaRRicH posted...

Just curious, what kinds of things do we see in case we're overestimating Odyssey and we have Odyssey = Galaxy 2?

well you'd have Witcher 3 beating Smash Ultimate 55/45, for one

which basically means Skyrim and Persona 5 would give it all it could handle

LeonhartFour posted...

which basically means Skyrim and Persona 5 would give it all it could handle

This actually isn't that far off from what I think might actually be the case

I kinda doubt it!

although it's hard to make much of Smash's stats because its last three matches are unreliable to varying degrees

On another note I really miss those match pics of old where all contestants are in one image. It was always interesting to see how picsmiths could mix up very different games and characters. The seperate pics we get these few contests have way less room for creativity.

Ultimate let Xenoblade get 41% on it. i dont think this "bandwagon" factor mattered much. plus theres the possibility of SFF beneffiting Smash to even that out.

nothing we've seen from Smash points to it being stronger than Skyrim or Persona 5. the spiderman match is the biggest factor screaming out "hey, that xenoblade result is legit. this is how strong smash is"

wow people are still disrespecting Spider-Man huh

LeonhartFour posted...

Mario games bombed left and right in GOTD because the franchise wasn't in a good place and people did not like the Wii

Ok, but that was 1.5 years after the 2009 contest. At the very least, my impression is that people still liked the Wii in early 2009.

Sharinnegan posted...

"hey, that xenoblade result is legit. this is how strong smash is"

I agree with this, but 56% on Portal 2 without rallies doesn't measure up to nearly 60 on Xenoblade, not to mention it's pretty absurd to think Persona 5 is 10%+ ahead of P4G anyways.

I've done the RDR-P4--XBC-RDR2-Portal-P5 chain of stats in a couple of my guest write-ups, and I think unless you rate RDR2 significantly less than RDR1, P5 is only a couple of points away from Smash.

It wouldn't exactly surprise me anyway. This site is all about JRPGs, and taking commercial, critical, and fan response into account, P5 is the biggest deal in that genre since FFX.

MetalmindStats posted...

Ok, but that was 1.5 years after the 2009 contest. At the very least, my impression is that people still liked the Wii in early 2009.

Galaxy didn't do too hot in 2009 either

Persona 5 is indeed around 10% ahead of Persona 4G unless you think RDR2 is significantly weaker than RDR1.

we've seen GTAV and RDR are even...doesn't make much sense for RDR2 to deviate from that. these rockstar games all sorta perform the same here.

handsomeboy2012 posted...

On another note I really miss those match pics of old where all contestants are in one image. It was always interesting to see how picsmiths could mix up very different games and characters. The seperate pics we get these few contests have way less room for creativity.

Yeah, I miss getting to really flex my creativity in match pics. These days, it's pretty much cropping and adjusting color sliders. Even getting to interact with the logos would make a huge difference.

Yeah the pic requirements of modern contests are too restricting. It seems so hard to get creative.

LeonhartFour posted...

Galaxy didn't do too hot in 2009 either

I think his point is that the success of the console doesn't have much to do with Mario's success, especially considering that Odyssey was still handily defeated by SSBU.

I think of the Wii in two distinct periods: pre-SSBB and MKW, and post-SSBB and MKW. After they released, they had a long lull of games and nothing else was as big as the early years on that system.

Mac Arrowny posted...

I think his point is that the success of the console doesn't have much to do with Mario's success, especially considering that Odyssey was still handily defeated by SSBU.

But it does. The system being really popular doesn't mean Mario automatically becomes the most popular game on the system! Smash is still above it on the hierarchy. Brawl stomped Galaxy pretty hard in 2009, much harder than Smash Ultimate ever will to Odyssey.

I think Brawl stomping Galaxy so hard compared to Ultimate vs. Odyssey says more about Smash falling since then than it does anything about Mario's strengths

If Brawl was as well-received as Ultimate has been it would have won Game of the Decade 2000s straight-up. The userbase on this site just doesn't care about Smash as much since then IMO. It's still above Mario in the hierarchy but like its base strength (like even outside of Nintendo SSF) is weaker and I think that also reflects in the percentages in the match vs. Odyssey.

Yeah, I think that's fair with Smash being weaker now. The site getting older definitely doesn't help Smash - there's a lot less multiplayer gaming nowadays.

Eh, Smash Ultimate would still make short work of Galaxy 1 or 2.

Dang skyrim couldnt even keep it close. At least it beats persona 5?

Maybe? the trends so far have been almost exactly the same as Witcher vs Persona 5. P5 held Witcher at the 54% mark for a very long time.

we'll have to see if Skyrim holds up better in the day, which is where Persona fell off a cliff and let Witcher start gaining a ton to finish at 56.5%

Skyrim and Witcher 3 have very similar trends. I'm not sure how much higher Witcher 3 goes from here. I'd be kinda surprised if it finished above 56%, at least.

Skyrim's been making a lot of small cuts here and there for the past half hour or so; Witcher is below 54 at the moment.

Witcher still has a nice Europe vote to look forward to,as it's up to nearly 58% in the UK.

I have no more skin in the game, but for the sake of entertainment, I hope Skyrim makes this a barn-burner!

Witcher with some huge updates

and europe will help witcher go past 55 imo.

the worst thing that could happen to BOTW is a witcher rally half way through tomorrow

remember most of the devs work in Poland and the poll stsrted very late. If the developers catch notice and support it could be very interesting

we havent seen witcher rallies because its not been losing

i think tomorrow is going to shock a lot of people. Not in terms of result. Botw gets it done. But its a Final. Anything can happen.

A CDPR rally wouldn't exactly be shocking. It's not super likely but at the very least they did express interest five years ago.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

A CDPR rally wouldn't exactly be shocking. It's not super likely but at the very least they did express interest five years ago.

i mean its a Final. Witcher will be losing the match.

its not just CDPR. Anything could happen. A rally could take off on Reddit.

BOTW and Witcher are among two of the most respected games of the decade. These two would contest a final in most other sites.

LeonhartFour posted...

well you'd have Witcher 3 beating Smash Ultimate 55/45, for one

which basically means Skyrim and Persona 5 would give it all it could handle

nah. Too many nintendo fans for that level of performance

ThAt match probably goes 50-50 for first 5-6 hours and then witcher kills it in europe and wins 52-48

it's been a great contest everyone! thanks for a really fun time

What would Witcher need on Skyrim to gaurantee Persona 5 > Dark Souls?

MithosLowell posted...

What would Witcher need on Skyrim to gaurantee Persona 5 > Dark Souls?

54.08% or more

Witcher is destroying Europe. 59%+ everywhere with a doubling in a lot of places and 90% in its home country of Poland.

My prediction is sustained cutting at this time frame against BotW (not enough to threaten it or anything though).

Witcher just needs to gain a bit over 1% for Skyrim to finish below Persona 5

To me this puts Persona 5 > Skyrim talk to rest. It's not a big difference, but considering Persona 5 rallies in force last time and there's great overlap between Witcher and Skyrim.

Oh yeah, there were talk of CD projekt rallying today too?

It seems like we like to ignore these things when comparing the two matches.

LeonhartFour posted...

no way, Mario is in a way better place now thanks to the success of Odyssey

Mario games bombed left and right in GOTD because the franchise wasn't in a good place and people did not like the Wii

Mario games basically rise with the tide of how people feel about a Nintendo system. People didn't like the Wii by the end, so the Galaxy games end up mid-tier. People love the Switch, so Odyssey does well. People still fondly remember the NES, so Mario 1 would still beat Zelda 1.

Would this explain why Sunshine, NSMBW and Maker did so bad in their polls?

Woke up, checked the results. I didn't expected Witcher 3 to win that easily. Amazing.

Also for final round. Can you people post only CD-I Zelda game pics and can someone contatc CD Projekt Red for maybe they rally for Witcher?

Safer_777 posted...

Woke up, checked the results. I didn't expected Witcher 3 to win that easily. Amazing.

Also for final round. Can you people post only CD-I Zelda game pics and can someone contatc CD Projekt Red for maybe they rally for Witcher?

the problem with starting a rally from CD or any of its staff members is they live in Poland or around Europe. Mach starts 5pm pacific and 1am local time in Poland. They wont really be aware of this match until 8-9 hours later

i said this yesterday but the best thing for Witcher is to catch a rally early from them or rely on reddit for rallies to take off

botw would have had built a huge lead bu the time europe wakes up. If cd project to tweet about it witcher is probably only going to have around 10-12 hours to mount the comeback

unless of course reddit pons the rally on r/witcher and witcher 3 very early

Well Undertale back in the day came back from losing with more than 9000 votes so I guess it can be done.

Safer_777 posted...

Well Undertale back in the day came back from losing with more than 9000 votes so I guess it can be done.

yeah but BOTW wont be that many votes ahead. I think naturally BOTW will be around 60-40 against witcher and that probably puts it 1.5k-2k votes ahead by the time europe wakes Up

either way witcher is going to need an allmighty rally

personally i want witcher to be rallied enough to make it close

my ideal reault would be witcher rallying to get like a 48% or something. Something to have Persona 5 top 5 in xstats.

Safer_777 posted...

Woke up, checked the results. I didn't expected Witcher 3 to win that easily. Amazing.

Also for final round. Can you people post only CD-I Zelda game pics and can someone contatc CD Projekt Red for maybe they rally for Witcher?

I just submitted Zelda's butt. Witcher don't stand a chance.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

I just submitted Zelda's butt. Witcher don't stand a chance.

There are some great butts in the Witcher too!

Why even allow Zelda games in the contest?

Neither Zelda game in the contest have been in a contest here before. It would be weird to remove BotW based on assumptions imo, even if they're good assumptions.

Plus, with the contest title in mind, wouldn't we basically declare we already chose GotD if we removed one entry from GotD due to being too strong?

Today is basically the real final. Tomorrow is just a bonus match to please the rest of the site.

this is a bonus match too...we all knew Skyrim had no chance.

Sharinnegan posted...

this is a bonus match too...we all knew Skyrim had no chance.

So Witcher 3 Vs Persona 5 was the real final? Yeah let's roll with that

In no world did we know this match and not Witcher/Persona

before both matches happened, this was the assumption for the most part...

Persona had a very small chance due to being different enough, in case Witcher 3 had been overperforming on western games

Skyrim had no chance whatsoever because, even if it was stronger, Witcher would SFF it.

in the end as we all see neither game had a chance. but Persona was a more likely upset to happen prior to the matches.

I understand where you're coming from, maybe it's just that I didn't give Persona even a small chance either. Well, at least not any greater chance the Galaxy 2 or God of War. I've had a bunch of discussions about that already both here and even in the guru topic. But there were also people not thinking Witcher would SFF Skyrim. Maybe they're a smaller group than the Persona supporters, but I honestly think they just weren't as loud about it and they appeared to have the better bad idea.

Also, it seems like Witcher 3 is slowing down again, now with the Europe hours being over. I'm guessing it stays around here.