Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1361

I'm quite pleased with how my second chance ended up. Considering it was a 5 minute rush job i'm currently in the top 70 and made the leaderboard.

Sharinnegan posted...

this is a bonus match too...we all knew Skyrim had no chance.

So Witcher 3 has a 100% prediction percentage then?

It's actually crazy how much Europe is propping up Witcher here. Despite being over 55 in the overall poll, it's only at 51.08 in the US.

I'm thinking Skyrim might actually bleed Witcher quite a bit once America is at the wheel again.

Witcher 3 at 90% in Poland

Oh wow, Witcher really took off. This result makes a lot more sense given what we've seen from these two games

If we hold Skyrim and Mass Effect 2 constant from 2015, BotW is only expected to get 51.64% against Witcher 3.

Skyrim's likely fallen since 2015 or there's some SFF here.

Witcher 3 is worth 65.6% on RDR2 (the Persona 5 rallies against Witcher and Portal presumably cancel), while BotW is worth 68% on ME2. Even if you believe RDR2 = ME2 (which seems like a big stretch to me), BotW still wins with 54%.

The Journey and Dark Souls matches paint a pretty consistent picture of Skyrim falling 4 or 5 points from its 2015 x-stat, if you're willing to give Dark Souls full credit for its increased percentage on MGSV.

I'm excited to see all these final projections for LoZ:BotW VS W3.

squexa posted...

Witcher 3 at 90% in Poland

Poland is the kiddies of the contest.

Would be nice if witcher stayed where it is so I can get my 50 points.

Is there any running list of 'highest differences between US vote total vs overall vote total' or something along those lines?

Because I have to imagine that at least as far as games go, Witcher makes that list. Its US result is under 51 now

squexa posted...

Witcher 3 at 90% in Poland

Well that makes sense, unlike Japan, Poland isn't exactly used to having made a bunch of legit Game of the Decade contenders.

Witcher 3 also scoring 90% in Romania is more surprising to me, lol.

Witcher 3 isn't even 51 in USA. Don't Americans like it? I guess they really like skyrim.

Witcher beasting in Europe could make it really close in percentage even if BotW 60-40s Geraldo in the US.

Witcher being below 51% in the US doesn't mean they don't like it at all, just means they don't favor it as much over Skyrim as elsewhere. This is the semi-final!

Safer_777 posted...

Witcher 3 isn't even 51 in USA. Don't Americans like it? I guess they really like skyrim.

Of course they like it, it's holding the majority. A lot of them just prefer Skyrim at the same time. I remember it being a pretty big deal on release for a lot of my friends.

MechanicalWall posted...

It's actually crazy how much Europe is propping up Witcher here. Despite being over 55 in the overall poll, it's only at 51.08 in the US.

Neither of these games really appeal to the Asian countries, yet Witcher is being favored much more heavily over Skyrim in Asia.

There's also the possibility that we're seeing higher than normal turnout from Europe today, but I can't determine this due to the lack of continent-level voting results (including total votes from each continent). Back when we could see the total number of votes from each continent, Europe was capable of maxing out at about 18-19% of the total votes so today's match may be on this level of turnout or even higher.

US bracket votes have to be making a slight difference as well.

Damn, I actually still had faith in Skyrim and went with it in the Second Change bracket too! For a couple minutes there, it looked like I had it.

Still, for someone that's barely played any new games in the last ten years (been getting into playing again the past three or so years, by all older stuff), I feel good about my bracket. Even called a couple first round upsets (although I think I might have thought Nioh was Nier when I predicted it to win, lol)

Yah it's looking like the day vote is gonna make it impossible for Witcher to put Skyrim below P5

For all the talk of WeebFAQs and JRPGFAQs, two of the top 5 games this decade are WRPGs. Last GOTD had Fallout 3 at 6, and then you have to go down to Oblivion at 20 for the next WRPG.

Even in GOTD 1, I think Fallout 3 would have lost to Pokémon Gold/Silver, Wind Waker, Resident Evil 4, and Metal Gear Solid 3 as well. That number on Brawl means nothing.

MechanicalWall posted...

For all the talk of WeebFAQs and JRPGFAQs, two of the top 5 games this decade are WRPGs. Last GOTD had Fallout 3 at 6, and then you have to go down to Oblivion at 20 for the next WRPG.

And ME2 probably makes it three of the top ten! This decade, I'd say the biggest deviation from our tastes versus the internet at large is that Rockstar is significantly less popular. If you show our bracket to a thousand gamers on Reddit, my guess is their general consensus would be "sounds reasonable" for everything apart from GTAV's division.

MechanicalWall posted...

Yah it's looking like the day vote is gonna make it impossible for Witcher to put Skyrim below P5

For all the talk of WeebFAQs and JRPGFAQs, two of the top 5 games this decade are WRPGs. Last GOTD had Fallout 3 at 6, and then you have to go down to Oblivion at 20 for the next WRPG.

We're just RPGFAQs. JRPGs are just part of the equation, mostly due to the age of our userbase (who started with the Square JRPGs of the 90s).

The main difference between our results and that of another website like r/gaming is that we don't have respected non-RPGs like The Last of Us and GTAV high on our lists, but that might just be us being more "hardcore" than Reddit. I think other more hardcore places like Resetera or /v/ will probably have something more like ours.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

And ME2 probably makes it three of the top ten! This decade, I'd say the biggest deviation from our tastes versus the internet at large is that Rockstar is significantly less popular. If you show our bracket to a thousand gamers on Reddit, my guess is their general consensus would be "sounds reasonable" for everything apart from GTAV's division.

Agreed. I've been saying for weeks that this is probably the closest GameFAQs has aligned with general popular sentiment; BotW vs Witcher is the most big standard final that could possibly occur.

This contest pretty clearly portrays a power shift away from japan and towards the west. Japan probably still wins on average, but the first half of the decade was dominated by western games. Outside Persona and Xenoblade pretty much every JRPG that made the bracket looked like ass, and it's mostly Nintendo and FROM propping up the East.

MechanicalWall posted...

I've been saying for weeks that this is probably the closest GameFAQs has aligned with general popular sentiment;

I don't think we're particularly more aligned with popular general sentiment now. Back in 2004 or so, GameFAQS WAS the gaming mainstream. The only thing we didn't have at that time was a robust PC crowd, but OoT vs FFVII could have been the finals at any other non-PC gaming website in 2004. WRPGs didn't become a big thing until Oblivion or KOTOR at the earliest and both games have always had pretty considerable strength here from the beginning, though maybe less than at other sites.

I certainly take your point about GameFAQs being the mainstream once upon a time, though I think the lack of a PC audience is more than just a footnote.

Stuff like Half-Life, Deus Ex, System Shock 2, Counter Strike, Civilization, Rainbow Six either don't appear or have always been lacking in our contests (and I am noting that HL2 has pretty good performances; it's a bonafide finalist on a lot of other sites). Cult classics like Planescape and Baldur's Gate are turbofodder. And that's not even wading into actually dangerous waters like League, Dota, PUBG, or Minecraft, which would be BotW level threats in brackets elsewhere.

I am NOT complaining, mind.

the PC audience has gone up as the PC market has gone up.
but shooters and sandbox games remain something this site rejects, which makes sense; you aren't using a text guide on the former and while you technically can on the latter it really rose with videos and wikis too.

Wanglicious posted...

the PC audience has gone up as the PC market has gone up.
but shooters and sandbox games remain something this site rejects, which makes sense; you aren't using a text guide on the former and while you technically can on the latter it really rose with videos and wikis too.

Hard disagree on the former, Doom and Deus Ex benefit a lot from guides just to name two examples, and they suck here. Latter yeah, that's absolutely on point

squexa posted...

We're just RPGFAQs. JRPGs are just part of the equation, mostly due to the age of our userbase (who started with the Square JRPGs of the 90s).

The main difference between our results and that of another website like r/gaming is that we don't have respected non-RPGs like The Last of Us and GTAV high on our lists, but that might just be us being more "hardcore" than Reddit. I think other more hardcore places like Resetera or /v/ will probably have something more like ours.

GameFAQs is specifically console RPGFAQs. Prior to the late 2000s WRPGs were an extremely PC-centric genre which is why they never got a lot of recognition. I wonder if like, idk, Planescape Torment would be a mid carder if it got a decent PS1 version back in the day or something.

_SJimW_ posted...

GameFAQs is specifically console RPGFAQs. Prior to the late 2000s WRPGs were an extremely PC-centric genre which is why they never got a lot of recognition. I wonder if like, idk, Planescape Torment would be a mid carder if it got a decent PS1 version back in the day or something.

This is a great point and I do think Planescape and the old Bioware games would be a lot stronger if they got console ports. KOTOR is our earliest WRPG that has decent strength here and I wonder if its mostly because of the Xbox port (even if GameFAQs doesn't like Xbox, it likes it more than PC).

_SJimW_ posted...

GameFAQs is specifically console RPGFAQs.

US and non-SEGA RPGFAQs. Phantasy Star sucks for the latter and FFV is not as strong as it should be for the former.

Guys the top 3 games of the decade on GameFaqs are the same of WatchMojo.

GameFaqs:
1- Breath of the Wild
2- Witcher 3
3- Skyrim

WatchMojo:
1- Witcher 3
2- Breath of the Wild
3- Skyrim

I think often people forget the nature of this website when complaining about results.

Of course games with strong single player stories, and RPGs are going to do well here. Nobody is coming to GameFAQs for a League of Legends guide, or a Counterstrike FAQ.

Comparing this site to others on the internet, games that have an intrinsic need for text based walkthroughs are going to have an edge here. Those are the main results that deviate from what other sites would do.

Part of the Witcher's success is because it is a game that has need for FAQs

lordjers posted...

US and non-SEGA RPGFAQs. Phantasy Star sucks for the latter and FFV is not as strong as it should be for the former.

Phantasy Star is just a garbage franchise, of course a game that is objectively bad is going to do one that is objectively good.

Over the years i've found the only people that like Phantasy Star REALLY like it.

KanzarisKelshen posted...

Hard disagree on the former, Doom and Deus Ex benefit a lot from guides just to name two examples, and they suck here. Latter yeah, that's absolutely on point

i don't know what classic doom's strength would be these days. wouldn't be anything great though i imagine.
Deus Ex doesn't completely suck here, not for the niche that it is. who knows, maybe it's stronger now than it was a few years ago. honestly, it probably is the strongest FPS series on the site with the possible exception of Doom. this is a site where you can legitimately consider Deus Ex over any Battlefield.

If only there was a Witcher rally...

Wanglicious posted...

i don't know what classic doom's strength would be these days. wouldn't be anything great though i imagine.
Deus Ex doesn't completely suck here, not for the niche that it is. who knows, maybe it's stronger now than it was a few years ago. honestly, it probably is the strongest FPS series on the site with the possible exception of Doom. this is a site where you can legitimately consider Deus Ex over any Battlefield.

Aside from Half-Life and a lot of its spinoffs, right?

I've used Moves/Abilities/Combos FAQs enough to wonder why most fighting games have near turbofodder levels here. Getting through games without help is more likely than figuring all these on your own.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Aside from Half-Life and a lot of its spinoffs, right?

Ah right, HL2 and the Portals do really well too. I never think of Portal as an fps as much as a puzzle game but it technically counts.

Half Life 1 is uh... I dunno.
Left 4 Dead, I'll start taking Deus Ex games at that point.

https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r7/botw-_SecretSquirrel.png (YEEEEEEEEESSSSSSS!)
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r7/botw-_SecretSquirrel-2.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r7/botw-Agent_M.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r7/botw-Agent_M-2.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r7/botw-Agent_M-3.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r7/botw-UltimaterializerX.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r7/botw-ZenOfThunder.png

https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r7/w3-_SecretSquirrel.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r7/w3-Reala.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r7/w3-Reala-2.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r7/w3-UltimaterializerX.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r7/w3-UltimaterializerX-2.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r7/w3-MechanicalWall.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r7/w3-MechanicalWall-2.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r7/w3-MechanicalWall-3.png (GLORY BE TO ALLEN)

I am very likely missing one BotW pic, unless Allen used an uneven amount of pics.

Zelda butt vs. Geralt in the bathtub

I hope I get it

Oh man I want to vote for Zelda’s butt, but that Gerhalt picture is just to sexy!

BTW, I have a little bit of a scoop on what pic to work on tonight.

I'm refreshing until I do

_SecretSquirrel posted...

BTW, I have a little bit of a scoop on what pic to work on tonight.

I'm assuming this means bonus match(es) confirmed then

shane15 posted...

Over the years i've found the only people that like Phantasy Star REALLY like it.

Phantasy Star 2 is a top 10 JRPG.

Obviously Phantasy Star IV as well

LeonhartFour posted...

I'm assuming this means bonus match(es) confirmed then

it is...i got the notification too.

i dunno if i can say what it is? but it won't surprise anyone.

Sharinnegan posted...

it is...i got the notification too.

i dunno if i can say what it is? but it won't surprise anyone.

Let Allen spill the beans on that when he wants to.