Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1363

Man Take 2 announced that they have sold around 31.000.000 copies for Red Dead Redemption 2 and around 130.000.000 for GTA 5! I do wonder why they don't do good in the contests since everyone has played them so you think that people would vote for them.

I'd be curious to know what their playrates are here, actually.

GTA 5 isn't anything incredible but i'd take it over a lot more stuff than this site would.

I wonder if GTA5 does better if epic gives it away before its matches

Leonhart4 posted...

I'd be curious to know what their playrates are here, actually.

It is known for a fact that playrate is the most important factor in a game's strength. Everything else such as how much the game is loved by fans and nostalgia works off the game's playrate. Once a game has achieved a good playrate, it has already established a solid foundation to be a potentially very strong game on this site and that's when other factors determine how the playrate ultimately translates into strength (or lack of strength).

In KP's most recent adjusted X-Stats (that has Witcher at 41% on BotW), Cuphead has an X-Stat value of 23.05% while Minecraft is at 22.32%. These are the 2 strongest indie games in the contest, and Cuphead is only barely ahead of Minecraft. In fact, Minecraft is the only indie game we have actual playrate data on, where it maxed out at a 51.79% playrate. That would be a very solid playrate for the GotD2 field, but the knock against Minecraft is that the site doesn't care about the game that much, so the playrate translates into a lower strength than a majority of the games with similar playrate numbers.

Cuphead would almost certainly have a lower playrate than Minecraft, but the game is more loved by the people who have played it. The lower playrate for Cuphead when compared to Minecraft is the only reason that the 2 games are as close as they are in the adjusted X-Stats.

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The Mana Sword posted...

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I'm going to assume this is a response to Luster as in "gee… who could've imagined… thanks…", but I actually did wonder beforehand how a game with a lower playrate could be stronger than a game with a higher one.

I still can't figure out how it works completely, though, since I don't see Super Mario Bros. being an elite game despite having a playrate of 96%, for example.

I know playrate =/= strength, but in any case, I wouldn't know how to explain how a beloved game with a low playrate can be stronger than a slightly-less beloved game with a higher playrate.

Mario 1 is a respected game, but how many people say it's one of their 10 favorite games? It's the same situation as Tetris, except Mario games are more up our alley so it's a lot stronger.

I mean, I know that but I just can't figure out the process of two games having a different playrate and the game with the lowest one winning.

You'd think it would go like: “Oh, I haven't played this game, so I'll just vote for the one I have” (assuming they liked it and isn't anti-voting).

let’s say hypothetically 50% of the site has played SMB, and 30% has played SMG, also let’s just assume all of the 30% that played SMG also played SMB

if all of the the people who played SMG preferred it to SMB, SMG wins despite the lower playrate

obviously that’s not a realistic situation, but it illustrates the basic idea. The lesser played game will beat the higher played game if enough people who played both prefer the lesser played game.

Ahhh that makes a lot of sense. Thanks.

Super Mario Bros not getting into the 2015 is still one of the worst snubs ever.

Stupid question: Would Baldur's Gate II beat most of the GOTD 2 bracket?

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Stupid question: Would Baldur's Gate II beat most of the GOTD 2 bracket?

Baldur's Gate II couldn't beat SKIES OF ARCADIA. Make of that what you will.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Stupid question: Would Baldur's Gate II beat most of the GOTD 2 bracket?

An old PC game? No.

Leonhart4 posted...

An old PC game? No.

Diablo II

Diablo II is the exception that proves the rule. Look at how well the average PC game did in GotD2.

Honestly Baldur's Gate 2 has a great shot at beating half the GotD2 bracket. Here's the middle section of the Xstats:

61 - Ni ni Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch - 20.06825980224
62 - Ori and the Blind Forest - 20.020352
63 - Undertale - 19.9569166308
64 - Final Fantasy XV - 19.75
65 - Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty - 19.685
66 - Hollow Knight - 19.5841
67 - Deus Ex: Human Revolution - 19.3731072966144
68 - Dragon Age: Inquisition - 19.2555745536
69 - Journey - 18.8310528

Skies of Arcadia probably beats all of those.

Baldur's Gate II finished at 25% on Majora's Mask in 2010 and 20% on OoT in 2015 (for whatever that;s worth). It's right below Shovel Knight in the 2015 stats.

Of course, is Baldur's Gate II weaker now than it was then? It's possible.

The original question was "Would Baldur's Gate II beat most of the GOTD 2 bracket?"

Half is a good number for Baldur's Gate II or Skies of Arcadia, but they would still need the same kind of favorable placement they got in GotD1 to be able to advance to Round 2.

As in, facing each other.

Can someone tell me how many indie games were in the contest? Want that info for my analysis.

Vyse vs. Noctis who ya got

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Vyse vs. Noctis who ya got

I'll pick Vyse out of principle. Worth it even if I lose the point.

There's an adjusted 2018 x-stats somewhere, right? Where can I find them?

swirIdude posted...

There's an adjusted 2018 x-stats somewhere, right? Where can I find them?

I didn't adjust the main bracket. I just did the work on the double elimination portion to make it look as good as I could. You can find them on creative's site.

Wow, I just noticed how bad the vote totals are on today's poll. It might not even make it to 7000 votes, and this is after most of our regular polls have been breaking 10000 votes over the past 2 months.

The only explanation I can provide for today's poll sucking so badly is that a lot of voters can't properly tell you which Pac-Man ghost has killed them the most times. I think you would definitely see higher vote totals in this poll if there was an option for "I don't know, I couldn't tell you".

Yeah, I just voted Blinky 'cause I had to pick one.

No real idea who's killed me most.

I dunno which ghost has pwned me the most so I took "I never played PAC-MAN" as the "I dunno" option.

I took the most popular option in this poll, which is the Blinky option.

Safer_777 posted...

Can someone tell me how many indie games were in the contest? Want that info for my analysis.

31 by my generous count. You might count them differently.

Here's what I got (and maybe some other info you might find useful).

INDIE GAMES THAT GOT TO ROUND 3 (1):

Shovel Knight - 27.19% (VS Super Mario Odyssey)
Shovel Knight - 50.36% (VS Octopath Traveler)
Shovel Knight - 64.4% (VS Dragon's Dogma)

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INDIE GAMES THAT GOT TO ROUND 2 (10):

Hollow Knight - 49.58% (VS Final Fantasy XV)
Hollow Knight - 62.81% (VS Tales or Berseria)

Minecraft - 42.35% (VS Marvel's Spider-Man)
Minecraft - 75.71% (VS Dota 2)

Cuphead - 39.74% (VS Grand Theft Auto V)
Cuphead - 68.28% (VS XCOM 2)

Ori and the Blind Forest - 37.74% (VS Fire Emblem: Three Houses)
Ori and the Blind Forest - 51.91% (VS Dragon Age: Inquisition)

Stardew Valley - 35.91% (VS Super Mario Galaxy 2)
Stardew Valley - 71.17% (VS Destiny)

Super Meat Boy - 35.16% (VS Sonic Mania)
Super Meat Boy - 68.96% (VS Slay the Spire)

Divinity: Original Sin 2 - 31.27% (VS NieR: Autonama)
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - 69.22% (VS Hearthstone)

Bastion - 28.09% (VS Dragon Quest XI)
Bastion - 52.25% (VS The Walking Dead)

Journey - 25.02% (VS Skyrim)
Journey - 66.2% (VS Fate/Grand Order)

Rocket League - 22.76% (VS Dark Souls)
Rocket League - 51.66% (VS Dragon Ball FighterZ)

**********

INDIE GAMES THAT LOST IN ROUND 1 (20):

Celeste - 49.55% (VS Rayman Legends)
Undertale - 46.71% (VS Octopath Traveler)
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth - 43.47% (VS Nioh)
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night - 40.9% (VS Borderlands 2)
Terraria - 32.31% (VS BioShock Infinite)
Disco Elysium - 31.94% (VS Kingdom Hearts 3)
Slay the Spire - 31.04% (VS Super Meat Boy)
Crypt of the NecroDancer - 28.47% (VS Final Fantasy XIV)
VVVVVV - 28.28% (VS Fallout 4)
Dead Cells - 27.49% (VS Metal Gear Solid V)
What Remains of Edith Finch - 25.35% (VS Final Fantasy XV)
The Witness - 22.61% (VS Yakuza 0)
FTL: Faster Than Light - 22.23% (VS Persona 4 Golden)
Baba is You - 20.73% (VS Grand Theft Auto V)
The Stanley Parable - 20.6% (VS Fallout: New Vegas)
Night in the Woods - 18.04% (VS Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver)
Hotline Miami - 17.01% (VS Dark Souls)
Subnautica - 16% (VS Skyrim)
INSIDE - 13.94% (VS DOOM)
Return of the Obra Dinn - 12.75% (VS Super Mario Galaxy 2)

@HaRRicH Okay thanks. Why it seems that there were many more though?

Safer_777 posted...

@HaRRicH Okay thanks. Why it seems that there were many more though?

There were plenty of rather obscure games that were from major publishers that people conflated with indies.

Ah that makes sense. Thanks.

Hollow Knight got screwed. That game 100% gets into round 3 without the FF7R timing.

I'd like to see a Hollow Knight vs. Shovel Knight 1v1 match-up.

Yeah, it's a shame we didn't have more indies running into each other.

Never too late for that Indies Contest...!

I'd rather watch paint dry than have an indie contest.

HaRRicH posted...

Never too late for that Indies Contest...!

It's always too late

Well, considering nearly one fourth of the bracket consisted solely of indie games, and that they have only gotten more and more popular over time, I think having an indie contest by the end of this decade or so wouldn't be a bad idea.

We'd still have to wait a handful of years before having a reasonably sizeable bracket.

One fourth consisted of indies and yet only one made it to round 3

We don't really need a fodder contest

It would be impossible to predict though so that I like.

LusterSoldier posted...

It is known for a fact that playrate is the most important factor in a game's strength. Everything else such as how much the game is loved by fans and nostalgia works off the game's playrate. Once a game has achieved a good playrate, it has already established a solid foundation to be a potentially very strong game on this site and that's when other factors determine how the playrate ultimately translates into strength (or lack of strength).

In KP's most recent adjusted X-Stats (that has Witcher at 41% on BotW), Cuphead has an X-Stat value of 23.05% while Minecraft is at 22.32%. These are the 2 strongest indie games in the contest, and Cuphead is only barely ahead of Minecraft. In fact, Minecraft is the only indie game we have actual playrate data on, where it maxed out at a 51.79% playrate. That would be a very solid playrate for the GotD2 field, but the knock against Minecraft is that the site doesn't care about the game that much, so the playrate translates into a lower strength than a majority of the games with similar playrate numbers.

Cuphead would almost certainly have a lower playrate than Minecraft, but the game is more loved by the people who have played it. The lower playrate for Cuphead when compared to Minecraft is the only reason that the 2 games are as close as they are in the adjusted X-Stats.

Tell Final Fantasy XV and Kingdom Hearts 3 Playrate is the most important factor of strength.

Its not. Its always been how many people loved it and re willing to support it in a 1v1 or contest format

You cannot tell me Hollow Knight has anywhere NEAR the same playrate as FFXV on this site. Or even GTA against PErsona 4 Golden. Theres just no f***ing way. If its a contest of "Have you played this" The older the game is and from a more established franchise the more likely someone has played it.

Leonhart4 posted...

One fourth consisted of indies and yet only one made it to round 3

We don't really need a fodder contest

We just HAD a fodder contest.

Indies only would be great.

UltimaterializerX posted...

We just HAD a fodder contest.

Indies only would be great.

No we didn't

And no it wouldn't

Honestly, all those indies appearing was the result of the two game series limit that resulted in many snubs like Mario 3D World and Dark Souls II. Considering that it's resulted in most of these indie games flopping by getting blown out, I don't think the rule was worth implementing IMO.

Undertale would have a shot at winning the Best Indie contest, making it the only entrant besides Link to win more than one contest, so I'm all for it.

I highly doubt Dark Souls II got enough nominations to be the Top 128, and it's very possible that 3D World didn't either.

KamikazePotato posted...

Undertale would have a shot at winning the Best Indie contest, making it the only entrant besides Link to win more than one contest, so I'm all for it.

Only if a rally and bandwagon happens. Other than that it's got too many anti-votes against it that it'll be an uphill battle for Undertale. I might take Cadence of Hyrule over it.