Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1365

ctesjbuvf posted...

We could go back to one match a day sooner than we currently do at least. There's no reason for that to begin in the semi-finals.

100% agree with this. It could easily start with the elite eight or even the sweet sixteen.

Yeah, I don't know why Allen always puts it off to the semifinals. It's not like it adds that many more days to the contest to do it a round or two earlier.

ctesjbuvf posted...

We could go back to one match a day sooner than we currently do at least. There's no reason for that to begin in the semi-finals.

This should start with divisional finals.

We could do it even earlier...

4 matches round 1 (16 days)
2 matches round 2 (16 days)
1 match rest of contest (31 days)

2 month contest

charmander6000 posted...

2 month contest

I don't remember the duration of every contest we've had, but the only gripe I had with GotD1 was that it felt too long, and I think that one lasted 2 months, unless I'm mistaken. A very long contest can feel kind of tiresome.

Elite 8 sounds good for the switch, though.

Yeah 2 months (63 days) used to be the length. I don't see the issue there.

charmander6000 posted...

We could do it even earlier...

4 matches round 1 (16 days)
2 matches round 2 (16 days)
1 match rest of contest (31 days)

2 month contest

@SBAllen

Contests used to always be two months for full sized contests and one month for side contests, so stretching it out to two months isn't a big deal.

At least whatever amount of days we used to have a break before division finals would be better used on having one match per day sooner. The second bracket challenge is nice enough in some ways, but the momentum loss and votals drop don't even make up for it imo. It made sense in 2018 with the Loser's bracket, a lot less so this time.

Re-adjusted 2015 x-stats:

1) Chrono Trigger – 48.93
2) The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time – 47.95
3) Final Fantasy VII – 44.59
4) Pokémon Red & Blue – 43.26
5) The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past – 42.68
6) Super Mario World – 42.4
7) Super Mario Bros. 3 – 42.32
8) Super Mario 64 – 41.96
9) Final Fantasy VI – 39.08
10) The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask – 37.04
11) Super Metroid – 36.65
12) The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess – 36.22
13) The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker – 36.15
14) Super Smash Bros. Melee – 35.93
15) The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim – 34.93
16) Final Fantasy X – 33.74
17) Final Fantasy IX – 33.12
18) Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars – 33.11
19) Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater – 32.49
20) Metal Gear Solid – 32.49
21) Kingdom Hearts – 32.4
22) Kingdom Hearts II – 32.12
23) Pokémon Gold & Silver – 31.61
24) Metroid Prime – 31.52
25) Castlevania: Symphony of the Night – 31.48
26) Resident Evil 4 – 31.14
27) Super Smash Bros. for Wii U – 30.96
28) The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion – 30.18
29) Shadow of the Colossus – 30.17
30) Mega Man X – 30.04
31) Fallout 3 – 29.97
32) Super Mario Galaxy – 29.62
33) Final Fantasy IV – 29.49
34) Final Fantasy VIII – 28.65
35) Final Fantasy Tactics – 28.34
36) Grand Theft Auto V – 28.34
37) Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty – 28.25
38) GoldenEye (1997) – 28.2
39) Mass Effect – 27.93
40) Okami – 27.92
41) Super Mario Galaxy 2 – 27.47
42) Tetris – 27.39
43) Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic – 26.57
44) Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots – 26.52
45) Half-Life 2 – 26.41
46) Sonic the Hedgehog 2 – 26.3
47) Fallout: New Vegas – 26.09
48) Chrono Cross - 26
49) BioShock – 25.89
50) The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt – 25.88
51) Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door – 25.84
52) Paper Mario 64 – 25.81
53) EarthBound – 25.77
54) The Last of Us – 25.68
55) Mass Effect 2 – 25.58
56) Diablo II – 25.56
57) Persona 4 – 25.16
58) Dark Souls I – 25.11
59) StarCraft I – 25.01
60) Tales of Symphonia – 24.88
61) Banjo-Kazooie – 24.8
62) Xenogears – 24.63
63) Red Dead Redemption – 24.6
64) Portal 2 – 24.5
65) Resident Evil – 24.45
66) Grand Theft Auto: Vice City – 24.07
67) Half-Life – 24.02
68) Resident Evil 2 – 23.93
69) Donkey Kong Country 2: Diddy’s Kong Quest – 23.9
70) Xenoblade – 23.73
71) Batman: Arkham City – 23.63
72) Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas – 23.49
73) Mass Effect 3 – 23.44
74) Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney – 23.32
75) The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind – 23.27
76) Portal – 23.2
77) Final Fantasy XII – 23.05
78) BioShock Infinite – 22.99
79) Fire Emblem: Awakening – 22.89
80) Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain – 22.4
81) Suikoden II – 22.16
82) Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos – 22.01
83) World of Warcraft – 21.81
84) Shenmue – 21.35
85) Borderlands 2 – 21.33
86) Dragon Age: Origins – 21.31
87) Bloodborne – 20.44
88) Perfect Dark – 20.31
89) Skies of Arcadia – 20.04
90) Uncharted 2: Among Thieves – 19.99
91) Silent Hill 2 – 19.97
92) Mother 3 – 19.82
93) Pokémon X & Y – 19.81
94) Halo: Combat Evolved – 19.43
95) Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate – 19.09
96) Demon’s Souls – 19.07
97) Baldur’s Gate II: Shadows of Amn – 18.69
98) Shovel Knight – 18.19
99) Assassin’s Creed II – 17.95
100) Valkyria Chronicles – 17.86
101) Deus Ex – 17.83
102) Bayonetta 2 – 17.72
103) Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King – 17.69
104) Minecraft – 16.82
105) Mario Kart 8 – 16.75
106) Civilization V – 16.72
107) Halo 3 – 16.69
108) Team Fortress 2 – 16.48
109) Undertale – 16.32
110) Super Mario Maker – 16.3
111) Persona 3 – 16.02
112) Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney: Trials & Tribulations – 15.74
113) Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare – 15.06
114) The World Ends with You – 14.77
115) Journey – 14.21
116) Ratchet & Clank: Up Your Arsenal – 13.85
117) Splatoon – 13.6
118) Animal Crossing: New Leaf – 13.57
119) Age of Empires II: The Age of Kings – 13.41
120) The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth – 13.37
121) The Walking Dead – 13.24
122) Planescape: Torment – 12.97
123) Destiny – 12.76
124) Life is Strange – 11.38
125) 999: Nine Hours, Nine Persons, Nine Doors – 11.17
126) Zero Escape: Virtue’s Last Reward – 10.7
127) Cave Story – 10.23
128) Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft – 8.6

Newest change I made was to adjust Majora's Mask's eightpack down very slightly, which had the side effect of, for one thing, pulling Mario Galaxy down a little.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

33) Final Fantasy IV – 29.49
34) Final Fantasy VIII – 28.65

Well I object

I had adjusted FFVIII down well beforehand because it didn't look right for Vice City to be that high.

Adjustments should be based on data, not on feelings

If the data doesn't look right, figure out why

Well they're my adjustments!

Yes but people assume you put actual work into it when you keep posting them!

What do you mean by that? Anyway I admit I basically just took the official stats and tweaked them a bit. Like I said, major props to those who made the initial adjustments that the stats don't look completely ridiculous. With FFVIII I basically kept its % on Chrono Trigger equal to the official stats, with this resulting in an overall decrease since I adjusted CT to 51% on OOT instead of 54%.

Seriously though, what on earth was the logic of giving CT such a high number on OOT?

The logic was the results. I know that can be tough to understand, but just look at CT/FFX and OoT/FFIX. Unless you're calling for SFF in CT/FFX (unlikely based on the pre-rally numbers against Melee) or FFIX > FFX (unlikely just based on the entirety of contest history), CT was in the ballpark of OoT in 2015 and just looked better.

"There's no way that would happen" isn't a logical basis for an adjustment. The numbers say what they say. It doesn't mean you have to believe CT would actually win (although the "rallies always make contests better" crowd loves to assume CT would've had no chance to justify ruining that contest). It's just what the available data suggests.

How about best video game developer? Yeah Nintendo wins but it would be nice to see how low would EA score too.

Leonhart4 posted...

The logic was the results. I know that can be tough to understand, but just look at CT/FFX and OoT/FFIX. Unless you're calling for SFF in CT/FFX (unlikely based on the pre-rally numbers against Melee) or FFIX > FFX (unlikely just based on the entirety of contest history), CT was in the ballpark of OoT in 2015 and just looked better.

"There's no way that would happen" isn't a logical basis for an adjustment. The numbers say what they say. It doesn't mean you have to believe CT would actually win (although the "rallies always make contests better" crowd loves to assume CT would've had no chance to justify ruining that contest). It's just what the available data suggests.

I don't call for SFF in CT/FFX. If anything I think CT and FFX are both being over-valued. Tidus crapping the bed and Auron doing worse against Snake in 2018 than he was directly projected to do in 2010 point to an FFX decline. So CT's only three wins in 2015 were over two pieces of fodder and a game whose main character got killed by Donkey Kong, and I'm supposed to believe it's the #1 game so easily? No thank you. And I still have CT as #1 in the x-stats, just with 51% on OOT instead of 54%. Yeah OOT didn't look so great struggling to triple Suikoden II, but that doesn't look that bad because Suikoden II is precisely the kind of game this site goes gaga over. And even with the adjustments FFIX just barely breaks 49% on FFX.

ffix and ffx being dead equal is something I gotta see

FFX and Chrono Trigger are both JRPGs from the same company so I'd imagine there's at least some SFF going on there.

OrangeCrush980 posted...

FFX and Chrono Trigger are both JRPGs from the same company so I'd imagine there's at least some SFF going on there.

We've never really seen FF and CT disproportionately affect each other and there have been plenty of opportunities.

Also I can't believe this still needs to be said but characters =/= games

DK was just a beast in 2018, and Crash was surprisingly really good that year. Their games will still be mediocre in a contest.

If results were limited to registered users:
Chrono Trigger vs. Smash Bros. Melee: 63.28% / 36.72%

From later contests we learned that registered user only results are usually pretty close to the overall result but slightly more favourable to Nintendo. We also saw an explicit example of this when SSBM got 55.30% on KH2 in the official results but 59.51% when limited to registered users. So the registered users only result likely underrates CT compared to SSBM.

CT was a beast in 2015. With that said, it had no chance against OoT because rallies would help the plucky underdog win in an exciting upset victory to end the contest.

Zelda rallies are the best

Still not over it

Leonhart4 posted...

Also I can't believe this still needs to be said but characters =/= games

DK was just a beast in 2018, and Crash was surprisingly really good that year. Their games will still be mediocre in a contest.

DK was such a beast he barely did better against Vivi than he did in previous contests. Plus, again, the rest of the FFX cast didn't exactly rock the world in 2018 except maybe Auron, and even he did worse against Sub-Zero than he did in 2006 and worse against Snake than he was directly projected to do in 2010 even though no one will argue Snake has weakened since then. FFX has just declined, plain and simple. Amazing how Leon is getting so defensive over FFVIII and FFX too, considering. I adjusted my two favorite games of all time DOWN in the stats - including Wind Waker even further to the point it's no longer ahead of Melee (though Twilight Princess still is) because FFVI's eightpack still looked too high on further inspection.

You realize 2018 Vivi was a lot stronger than the 2004 and 2010 version, right? He almost beat Ganondorf straight up without needing Mario's help like in 2013. The fact that DK did better on that Vivi is a testament to how good he was that year.

And I'm not defending FFVIII or FFX. It would make FFX look a lot better if I argued CT SFF'd it, but that would be intellectually dishonest because I don't actually believe that. I'm defending doing actual research on your numbers and not just "I think this doesn't look right so let's change it." That's not statistics.

FF in general has declined over the years and that's impossible to deny. But we're comparing two FF games directly so it's irrelevant to this discussion.

Yes I took into account that Vivi is much stronger in 2018. He still lost to a Ganondorf that failed to break 60% on Chun-Li and got destroyed by Mega Man.

I guess that means the Zelda series is a lot weaker now so that explains why CT would've beaten OoT in 2015

See I can cherry pick things that support my argument with zero regard for context too

Leonhart4 posted...

I guess that means the Zelda series is a lot weaker now so that explains why CT would've beaten OoT in 2015

It was the SSS factor.

Skyward Sword Slump

Well I guess I have no idea what statmaking really comprises, especially since a fair amount of the adjustments made to the official 2015 x-stats seem pretty arbitrary.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Well I guess I have no idea what statmaking really comprises, especially since a fair amount of the adjustments made to the official 2015 x-stats seem pretty arbitrary.

I can assure you KP put a lot of work into using actual data and it wasn't just arbitrary guesswork

Leonhart4 posted...

Also I can't believe this still needs to be said but characters =/= games

DK was just a beast in 2018, and Crash was surprisingly really good that year. Their games will still be mediocre in a contest.

Characters ≠ games, yeah, but a good game seems to pretty much boost a character by default. We've seen it with Smash characters, Crash, Spyro, DK, Zelda, etc. Sure, Crash: N Sane Trilogy and DKC: Tropical Freeze may not be worth much, but I definitely see them as direct boosters for Crash and DK respectively.

As far as game deboost = character deboost... I can't think of an actual example. Perhaps Shepard? Even though ME2 specifically remains quite strong...

Squall?

As far as Vivi beasting in 2018, I'm pretty sure it has to do with a FFIX resurgence. I forgot completely that FFX nearly doubled FFIX 10 years ago, and then OoT had a similar result against it 5 years later.

WHICH MEANS...

A FFX/FFIX rematch is gonna be pretty interesting.

Advokaiser posted...

As far as Vivi beasting in 2018, I'm pretty sure it has to do with a FFIX resurgence.

Zidane sucked in 2018! Vivi was really the exception that year.

Well, among the guys anyway. The girls did just fine.

And yes, good games help keep popular characters popular. That's why we predict boosts when new games come out, but the effect isn't proportionate. That's the whole point of characters =/= games. FFVIIR might help boost Tifa even higher than she already is, but the game itself isn't going to reach those heights.

Advokaiser posted...

As far as game deboost = character deboost... I can't think of an actual example. Perhaps Shepard? Even though ME2 specifically remains quite strong...

Squall?

We haven't really seen a game that used to be popular here stop being popular. They may not be as popular as they were at other times, but yeah. A game declining can be a sign that the characters might decline, this is true, but they aren't tied at the hip. We've seen CT go down and its characters go down. We saw CT go way back up, and...the characters stay pretty much the same.

LeonhartFour posted...

We saw CT go way back up, and...the characters stay pretty much the same.

If Crono got some of that boost and took out Cloud, I likely win Guru that year. ;_;

Advokaiser posted...

Sure, Crash: N Sane Trilogy and DKC: Tropical Freeze may not be worth much, but I definitely see them as direct boosters for Crash and DK respectively.

To be fair, we've never seen N. Sane Trilogy in any sort of relevant poll, but given how it first came out barely a year before CBX and that it seemed to be a huge hit, I have no problem believing it boosted Crash. On the other hand, Tropical Freeze was pretty close to 5 years old by the time of CBX, and it subsequently proved it had no strength to speak of in GotD 2. And frankly, DK's CBX results weren't that much better than what he had shown before, it's just that a previously known choke artist scoring two big upsets tends to skew perceptions. Unlike Crash, DK's boost falls well into the realm of difference covered by forced apathy and doubled registered user votes.

Advokaiser posted...

I forgot completely that FFX nearly doubled FFIX 10 years ago, and then OoT had a similar result against it 5 years later.

The former is a clear SFF match relative to the other GotD results those two games put up. For a more direct comparison, FFIX went from narrowly beating KotOR to narrowly besting Kingdom Hearts in those five years, which is a pretty clear boost even if it merely proved transient for Zidane.

Also, I'd say Crono, Frog, and Magus have all put up distinctly better results in the past two character battles than their early SB-era nadir, it's just that none of them improved nearly as much as CT itself.

DK's results were noticeably better. It wasn't just what he did. It was how he did it. He beat two characters he's been clearly weaker than before now and put up a better number on a better Vivi. I guess you can argue that everyone around him got worse, but it feels easier to say DK just got better.

I wouldn't say CT's results were noticeably better though, certainly not the marked improvement DK had. Frog put up a similar performance on Luigi in 2018 that he did on Bowser in 2010. Crono still looks like he's near the bottom of the Noble Nine like he's been since 2006. Magus is the one I'd willing to give you, but we can't tell anything from his 2013 performance and Vincent has been a giant enigma the last couple of contests himself. I can't tell how good or bad that guy is anymore.

With my stats, I suppose it was just kind of a personal experiment of mine. But I still wanted to bring it in for discussion!

FFX and RE4 both looked pretty lackluster in 2015 so it makes sense that Tidus and Leon declined anyway.

I don't think FFX/FFIX in the first GOTD was an SFF match. It didn't seem to skew the stats in any noticeable way, for instance Mass Effect and KOTOR are still equal even though KOTOR was supposedly stuck under FFX/FFIX SFF.

Last character battle had Crono beating Mega Man and putting decent numbers on Smash-boosted Cloud. That's a far cry from his choke-fests in prior contests, although by this point losing to a first-time lethal joke character and getting leeched to death against Pikachu don't look so bad. And honestly Chrono Trigger probably would have beaten FFX and Melee straight up in 2009 or 2010 too unless you think Majora's Mask and Brawl would have given Mario 64 a scare back then.

LeonhartFour posted...

DK's results were noticeably better. It wasn't just what he did. It was how he did it. He beat two characters he's been clearly weaker than before now and put up a better number on a better Vivi. I guess you can argue that everyone around him got worse, but it feels easier to say DK just got better.

I agree that he's improved, but let me put it this way: I don't think current DK would break 55% on 2013 DK (possibly fueled by DKCR, I admit), and certainly not 60% on 2010 DK. Obviously Leon and Dragonborn got worse, but it's hard to say whether or not Tidus becoming better-liked and more respected with age has been enough to save him from FFX's general strength trend.

I'll certainly give you that Crono & co. haven't trended upward as clearly as DK, and most of it has been obfuscated by their draws. However, I will say that 2018 Crono was distinctly above Sonic and Sephiroth, whereas 2006-2010 Crono was on the lowest rung of the Noble Nine, and both 2013 and 2018 Crono were dead even with Pikachu in neutral circumstances, versus 2008 Crono struggling to beat a much weaker Pikachu.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

I don't think FFX/FFIX in the first GOTD was an SFF match. It didn't seem to skew the stats in any noticeable way, for instance Mass Effect and KOTOR are still equal even though KOTOR was supposedly stuck under FFX/FFIX SFF.

Hmm, looking at the GotD matches and stats again, I see where you're coming from. I suppose it's at least debatable either way; I'd be curious to see what a set of adjusted stats by someone like KP has to say about the matter.

The GOTD1 stats are completely raw and unadjusted, which works amazingly well in most circumstances. The only things that looked particularly off to me were Fallout 3's quarter of the bracket, Shadow of the Colossus's eightpack, and Mario Kart DS. Even Wind Waker didn't seem like it was SFFd that badly by Majora's Mask given it still outperformed MGS3. Also IIRC Dragon Quest VIII/P3 went basically the way it was projected to go despite P3 being the board favorite on a presumption that Majora's Mask caught bandwagons later in the contest.

To think that of our all-inclusive games contests the 2015 x-stats are probably the most reliable even after how much the contest got "messed up" by off-site intervention. Then again this is what happens when the 2004 bracket was so SFF-ridden and the 2009 bracket was, well, lol 4-ways.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3295-division-4-final-crono-l-block-pikachu-alucard

I wouldn't really call that struggling. And L-Block being there probably makes that result a bit wonky anyway.

Also, I'm not sure Crono would beat Sonic or Sephiroth by that much. He only got 54% on Bowser, and I'd be reluctant to take Bowser over either one of those guys. So I don't know that he's really changed all that much.

I'd still be willing to beat Sephiroth wasn't nearly as bad as people called for him to be that year, but with remake out I can never really be proven right even if I am.

Also I agree that DK was probably secretly pretty good in 2013, too, but both of his matches had LFF, so it was hard to tell. Beating Lightning with Falco dragging him down wasn't something the old DK would do.

Leonhart4 posted...

Also, I'm not sure Crono would beat Sonic or Sephiroth by that much. He only got 54% on Bowser, and I'd be reluctant to take Bowser over either one of those guys. So I don't know that he's really changed all that much.

So you think Snake is still worth ~55% on Crono and Mega Man, even after Samus demolished him?

Yeah, because Samus would demolish them, too. Zelda barely beat Snake but she beat down Sonic. Mario got 60% on Sephiroth, so why couldn't Samus get 60% on Sonic, Mega Man, or Crono?

Either Mario/Samus or Samus/Snake (or both, I guess) was an anomalous result because those two do not line up with each other.

ctesjbuvf posted...

but with remake out I can never really be proven right even if I am.

You mean with smash out

Oh yeah, absolutely that too! One of them would be enough to prevent it though.

Solid Snake and Shepard absolutely deboosted. Leon Kennedy probably also paid for RE6's sins.

Snake looked just fine aside from the Samus result.

Right but MGS4 and 5 are examples of strong games that fell out of favor later. Characters don't need to fall off a cliff to deboost; a little 3-5% shift is enough proof of it.