Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1369

I get it, but I think you are just straight-up overestimating MGSV. MGS4 has disappointed since its release because it started so strong. At its peak, it was easily the strongest game in the series. It's had a long way to fall since then. The thing is that MGSV started out weak, and it started out so weak that MGS4's fall would have to be astronomical for the two to be comparable in strength. Mentioning MGSV in the same breath was any of the other open-world games you just listed is...misleading.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6197-best-of-2015-playstation-4

It couldn't even beat Fallout 4.

I have no faith in MGS5, but system polls can be really flaky. Bloodborne solidly beat Witcher 3 and Fallout 4. But, the eventual GotY finals would be Witcher 3 > Fallout 4.

Oh to be clear, I was more talking about genres and how I think those open world types of games are more in favour here than the more story-driven games.

Although, that was a weird year for system polls. The Witcher III lost every single system poll then won Game of the Year. Also Fallout 4 was strong for like two months. Speaking of games that had a lot of hype!

Bloodborne was overvalued in that poll because it's a PS4 exclusive. You know else was overvalued, even though it wasn't an exclusive? MGSV.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6199-best-of-2015-xbox-one
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6200-best-of-2015-pc

The initial poll I used is the one where it looked the best.

The worst thing to happen to MGS4's strength was the series continuing. If another game had never been made I imagine it would still be relatively close to its original strength, even if it would suffer from aging. But instead of being a concluded series it's one that has nothing going for it, but is still struggling on regardless.

I suspect it would be like The Witcher III and do much better in the overall vote due to a relative lack of platform alignment but leaning PS4, just like how The Witcher III had a lack of alignment but leaned PC. It’s weird, but I don’t think Metal Gear Solid V would lose to Rare Replay!

2015 MGS4 was expected to get 38% against SSBM while 2020 MGSV was expected to get 35% against Skyrim.

2020 MGSV would probably break 40% against 2015 MGS4, the question is whether you think MGS4 has dropped that much since then.

It's definitely an upset pick, but I wouldn't blame people for taking it.

Hierarchies change, we once believed MGS > MGS3 was the way until it wasn't

Yeah, but MGS3 clearly enjoyed a slowly growing reputation (it couldn't even beat Metroid Prime 2 in GotY here the year it came out). MGS4 has fallen, sure, but MGSV didn't really rise to the challenge and hasn't really grown in esteem since release. You're just betting MGS4 sucks a little worse. Among the hardcore fans of the series (which would be what matters most head to head), I don't think that's the case.

Actually, speaking of Prime 2, I wonder what the strongest Nintendo game is that's never made a contest. I suppose it would be one of the contenders.

Metroid Dread.

Leonhart4 posted...

Actually, speaking of Prime 2, I wonder what the strongest Nintendo game is that's never made a contest. I suppose it would be one of the contenders.

Breath of the Wild 2 will probably happen before we get another games contest. Does that answer count?

The strongest Nintendo game to never make a contest is surely the original Smash Bros.

It technically did make a contest before that god awful add/remove bulls*** happened.

Fallout -> DCK2
Super Smash Bros. -> Soul Calibur
Golden Sun -> Fire Emblem
TWEWY -> Street Fighter IV
Panzer Dragoon Saga -> Deus Ex
Super Street Fighter II Turbo -> Mortal Kombat II

All 6 games on the left got robbed.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

The strongest Nintendo game to never make a contest is surely the original Smash Bros.

Remember when people thought replacing it with SoulCalibur in 2009 was a good idea

Add/Remove was a mistake

Leonhart4 posted...

Actually, speaking of Prime 2, I wonder what the strongest Nintendo game is that's never made a contest. I suppose it would be one of the contenders.

The Oracle games should be up there.

KamikazePotato posted...

Add/Remove was a mistake

It was a decent idea, but I don't understand some of the changes that actually got enough momentum to stick, like replacing Golden Sun with Fire Emblem in a match with Wind Waker and Melee.

The Oracle games were honestly my gut pick until I remembered the Smash elephant in the room. They have a strong playrate and were fairly well-received, and...well, are Zelda.

The worst part is the most popular topics aren't what got chosen for the changes. Taking Smash 64 out was actually pretty popular, but the Deus Ex and Mortal Kombat topics barely had any posts.

excuse me I had the MK2 topic and it got plenty of support and was like the one good change

You're a huge SF fan. Did that actually happen? <_<

I know for a fact two of those had under 50 posts, which back then was nothing compared to the ones that got picked.

We didn't need both Street Fighter II and Super Turbo in the same contest and I knew MK2 would be popular enough to warrant inclusion

also it wasn't just total amount of posts, it was how much of those posts were positive support, MK2 for Super Turbo was pretty overwhelmingly positive

too bad I couldn't get Turtles in Time in for Battletoads, I don't understand why people thought we needed to see Battletoads again after 2004

Leonhart4 posted...

Yeah, but MGS3 clearly enjoyed a slowly growing reputation (it couldn't even beat Metroid Prime 2 in GotY here the year it came out).

2004 was loaded, but yeah, MGS3 benefited from Subsistence

Leonhart4 posted...

Actually, speaking of Prime 2, I wonder what the strongest Nintendo game is that's never made a contest. I suppose it would be one of the contenders.

Not counting recent stuff:

Skyward Sword, Smash 64, Prime 2/3, Oracle Games, Luigi's Mansion

Eh, Luigi's Mansion wouldn't hold a candle to those others. I wouldn't even pick it to beat something like Mario Sunshine.

Skyward Sword would be an interesting barometer for how weak a Zelda game can reasonably be. Besides the stuff like Link's Crossbow Training or the CD-i games.

Yeah, removing Super Street Fighter II Turbo was fine since we already had Street Fighter II. Deus Ex was okay since we already saw Panzer Dragoon Saga stink up 2004.

Street Fighter IV was a neutral change while DKC2 sounds good on paper, but the SFF made it a bad change. Fire Emblem was a bad choice and had terrible bracket placement. I wouldn't have minded Soul Calibur since it did quite well in 2004, but not at the expense of SSB.

DKC2 doing so badly in '09 fooled people into thinking it could lose to a Wii game with a limited release in the States.

Fire Emblem remains one of the most baffling decisions in contest history. Golden Sun had a shot at pulling an LFF shocker, Fire Emblem just got obliterated. It lost badly to Disgaea. This was also 2009 when Golden Sun was much more popular than Fire Emblem which was near its lowest point. Golden Sun had never seen a contest, Fire Emblem had and got doubled by Final Fantasy Tactics Advance. It was also a huge bummer personally because I put a lot of effort into getting Golden Sun in. I even remember the topic, it was one hardcore FE fan digging their heels in and being repeatedly told why it was a bad idea, yet it happened anyway.

However, TWEWY may have been the worst as that contest was its only chance to actually do anything and it got robbed by a game that had been out for three months. So yeah add/remove was a huge mistake.

Golden Sun's 4 pack had Wind Waker and SSBM. Golden Sun does better than Fire Emblem but Golden Sun gets killed all the same. Removing Golden Sun wasn't such as bad idea since it was just being sent to die in a SFF beatdown. But, changing it to Fire Emblem solved nothing.

Golden Sun would likely resist it. Disgaea got nearly 40% on Wind Waker. Golden Sun could maybe have pulled the upset, or more likely kept it close.

Golden Sun is Nintendo and lower on the totem. It gets demolished. No chance at all at taking out Wind Waker.

The Nintendo totem pole isn’t as much a totem pole as a jumble though, and Golden Sun as an RPG was always outside of it. So I expect that it would not have been. It definitely made a lot more sense than Fire Emblem which owed all its popularity to Melee then.

Yeah, I don't know that I buy Golden Sun resisting LFF completely. It's as popular as it is because of its association with Nintendo. It would handle it better than Fire Emblem, but not well enough to actually beat Wind Waker.

If only it hadn’t been taken out of the contest so we could see that!

Hey I'm not arguing against it staying in, and it certainly wouldn't have done worse than FE, which is why the replacement was stupid.

Just to be clear, I think Fire Emblem was a awful replacement. SSBM is disaster of an opponent for Fire Emblem. Golden Sun would do better but not by much. The Nintendo totem can be fuzzy at times but there is no question that WW and SSBM are higher up than GS. I'm not sure the genre matters here. Like Fire Emblem is an SRPG and got blown up anyways.

The issue is Fire Emblem’s popularity then was entirely down to Smash Bros., not so for Golden Sun. I suspect Golden Sun had a lot of non-Nintendo fans. And we had seen it hold up surprisingly well. Disgaea was able to get almost 40% on Wind Waker, Golden Sun beats Disgaea there for sure. Does it win? Probably not, but it likely gives it a scare.

And yeah, to be clear, nobody was having these discussions about Fire Emblem. That’s why it was a terrible decision.

I don’t get the love for Golden Sun at all. All 3 of those games are the dictionary definition of average.

The only thing I remember from golden sun the lost age is getting stuck in tedious dungeons with too many random encounters while trying to solve puzzles .There are waaay better rpgs on the GBA.

A better version of Add/Remove would have been to move entrants around the bracket to a better location. That obviously wouldn't have worked with 2009, but I think this could have been brought back later and used more effectively instead of being written off entirely as a failed twist.

All this game chat has got me hoping the next contest is a games one.

They've always been my favourite and Undertale kind of soured what was going to be a pretty interesting tournament last time

game of the 90s baby

Ocarina was robbed of a ring

more like Chrono Trigger was robbed of a ring

If you wanted to filter out OoT and FFVII, you could do Best Original Game (no sequels or spinoffs). Though I bet Pokemon RBY would win that one.

Chrono Trigger would very easily defeat Pokemon RBY without rallies.

Somehow I forgot about Chrono Trigger despite the fact that it was literally mentioned in the post before mine.

I don't think Final Fantasy VII is a tier above the other games, especially as we move further away from Remake. I'd still take it as the second strongest game today, but it won't be easy.

And even more FFVII remakes are on the way !
FFVII will at least get to maintain its 2nd place for the foreseeable future.

Ok, Allen, when are we getting Character Battle XI?

LttP playrate poll:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8791-