Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1374

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Looking at that Last of Us result got me to look at something:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/9056-best-of-2022-remakes-and-remasters

This might be one of the most impressive bombings in GotY polling ever, failing to take advantage of a four-way Square split to lose to Tactics Ogre.

Last of Us 2 combined with the absurd greed of Naughty Dog and Druckman being a smug a****** completely turned people against the franchise. It wasn’t even a slow burn either, it was almost instant.

LightningStrikes posted...

That’s true in general which is why there should always be a final poll.

I'm okay with this. I am willing to be reasonable and say they aren't strictly necessary if the winner is obvious. But, if I had my way I would be fine with always running one. We don't get many 1v1 matches, especially these days.

pjbasis posted...

Either way TotK is getting rocked by BotW. Makes me wonder how many Zelda games fit between them.

Don't agree with this take. 2023 was a big year for games and LoZ:TotK is clearly at the top even if not necessarily alone at the top. I ran a board poll here about two months ago with BotW VS TotK and how favored one was over the other -- TotK won it like three to one, with many of its poll votes saying they liked it much better than BotW.

BG3 also won lots of awards off of this site and was getting pop culture references too. Anecdotally, it broke through to my friends' group in a big way too.

BotW could win against TotK, and it probably does in my mind...but as someone who didn't get into TotK like I did for BotW, I don't buy that TotK can't at least keep close.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8041-final-battle-zelda-breath-of-the-wild-vs-the-witcher-3-wild

Perhaps I'm just not comprehending how big a deal BG3 is. But, would it be expected to beat Witcher 3? Although, if BG3 can beat TotK, I guess there's no reason it can't beat W3 as well.

pjbasis posted...

Either way TotK is getting rocked by BotW. Makes me wonder how many Zelda games fit between them.

TotK really dropped a big turd with today's showing. It's probably one of the weakest mainline console Zelda games, ahead of only the likes of Zelda 1, Zelda 2, and Skyward Sword. I think even TP would rock TotK in a direct match-up between the two.

I'd put BG3 a little below Witcher 3. Like 52-48.

Unless BotW has weakened since the last contest, I think it handles TotK pretty easily. People prize novelty and something feeling fresh or original. As lauded as TotK is, it's still seen as a very very very good expansion pack. It's not going to have the same generation-defining impact as BotW.

Maybe TotK could do some weird rSFF in a direct matchup though.

TeamRocketElite posted...

Perhaps I'm just not comprehending how big a deal BG3 is.

People saying this usually haven't played it.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/9424-

We actually got a 1v1 poll today.

Let's go!

It was 4-0 Zelda when I voted

Just like old times

Based on trends, the first five minutes are gonna be ugly

Baldur's Gate 315.38% 2
The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom84.62% 11
TOTAL VOTES13

TotK is coming out of the gate swinging.

KamikazePotato posted...

I'd put BG3 a little below Witcher 3. Like 52-48.

Unless BotW has weakened since the last contest, I think it handles TotK pretty easily. People prize novelty and something feeling fresh or original. As lauded as TotK is, it's still seen as a very very very good expansion pack. It's not going to have the same generation-defining impact as BotW.

Maybe TotK could do some weird rSFF in a direct matchup though.

Meaning Tears of the Kingdom is just Majora's Mask with a fresh coat of paint and should be just fine to win Game of the Decade 3

I'm hoping these will be fun trends!

(I was the second vote in the poll, 0–2.)

BG3 is looking even worse with the early vote today. The 4-way poll helped mask its terrible early vote to some extent, which is now being exposed to a greater extent in a 1v1 poll.

I look forward to the return of poll updates for comebacks.

A lot of people interested in an early vote today. (I was 5th, 5-0)

GameFAQs hath no fury like a Zelda scorned

https://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4115&num=2

Based on BG2 trends, BG3 will go on to win this match!

Leonhart4 posted...

GameFAQs hath no fury like a Zelda scorned

So far, TotK has absorbed 105% of RE4 and SMBW's votes.

TotK is in trouble. Already falling apart.

Stalled.

Has B8 just like...not played Baldur's Gate 3?

Wait, I didn't play Baldur's Gate 3. In my defense I'm waiting for the patches to end.

Full poll updates and trend charts from yesterday's poll:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wL6p2B8hLHdgGQoFzSPXWibg0NjW-FWX1QfKKpj1BHw/pub

I plan to insert updates from today's poll into the above spreadsheet as well.

I have not played BG3 either.

I have not and likely will not play Baldur's Gate 3

LusterSoldier posted...

Full poll updates and trend charts from yesterday's poll:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wL6p2B8hLHdgGQoFzSPXWibg0NjW-FWX1QfKKpj1BHw/pub

I plan to insert updates from today's poll into the above spreadsheet as well.

Thanks for the updates, Luster. I had fun checking in on this spreadsheet yesterday.

Cut! TotK hanging on for dear life.

Power Hour cut woah.

Wonder how closely the trends will match yesterday with Wonder out of the poll. Tears didn't actually drop off that much from its peak. It hit around 35.5% in the Power Hour and ended the day at 33.5%. Baldur's Gate rise mostly came at the expense of Mario, which dropped like a rock from start to finish.

Time | BG3 | RE4 | SMBW | TOTK | Votes
1:00 | 35.67% | 14.27% | 15.21% | 34.86% | 743
2:00 | 40.37% | 17.43% | 12.61% | 29.59% | 436
3:00 | 46.34% | 13.28% | 13.01% | 27.37% | 369
4:00 | 41.74% | 14.11% | 9.91% | 34.23% | 333
5:00 | 46.10% | 10.51% | 9.49% | 33.90% | 295
6:00 | 42.27% | 14.20% | 11.99% | 31.55% | 317
7:00 | 40.46% | 14.25% | 11.45% | 33.84% | 393
8:00 | 40.24% | 10.98% | 12.44% | 36.34% | 410
9:00 | 45.90% | 11.48% | 8.67% | 33.96% | 427
10:00 | 44.07% | 10.07% | 10.74% | 35.12% | 447
11:00 | 41.78% | 12.01% | 11.49% | 34.73% | 383
12:00 | 42.46% | 8.95% | 11.25% | 37.34% | 391
13:00 | 40.88% | 18.55% | 10.06% | 30.50% | 318
14:00 | 44.11% | 10.65% | 9.89% | 35.36% | 263
15:00 | 43.19% | 10.89% | 12.45% | 33.46% | 257
16:00 | 42.35% | 16.08% | 10.98% | 30.59% | 255
17:00 | 42.59% | 11.03% | 11.79% | 34.60% | 263
18:00 | 43.78% | 16.13% | 8.29% | 31.80% | 217
19:00 | 39.74% | 13.68% | 10.68% | 35.90% | 234
20:00 | 44.70% | 10.14% | 13.36% | 31.80% | 217
21:00 | 44.61% | 13.24% | 5.88% | 36.27% | 204
22:00 | 39.18% | 14.62% | 12.28% | 33.92% | 171
23:00 | 46.50% | 10.83% | 9.55% | 33.12% | 157
24:00 | 42.07% | 12.41% | 13.79% | 31.72% | 145

Time | BG3 | RE4 | SMBW | TOTK | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 34.46% | 16.89% | 16.89% | 31.76% | 148 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 35.67% | 14.27% | 15.21% | 34.86% | 743 | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 43.20% | 14.17% | 11.54% | 31.09% | 1750 | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 42.28% | 12.20% | 10.81% | 34.72% | 1230 | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 42.96% | 11.85% | 10.82% | 34.37% | 1932 | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 42.24% | 13.21% | 10.72% | 33.83% | 1688 | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 44.37% | 11.59% | 11.59% | 32.45% | 302 | (22:00-24:00)

TOTK got thoroughly rocked the entire poll, falling to win a single hour over BG3.

BG3 started out terribly at the start, but improved significantly overnight and maintained it for the rest of the poll. Weirdly enough, RE4 had a good board vote and Power Hour, but that was mostly at the expense of BG3's horrible start.

I personally haven't played BG3, but I also feel like I haven't been doubting BG3's chances too hard here -- favored TotK's chances but have said before BG3 would impress. Also said yesterday BG3 cracking 42% would have me considering BG3 possibly winning here, and now BG3 just got its first cut.

TotK was huge this year. BG3 was also huge, but it was from a series nobody ever thought would compete with LoZ.

God, look at those hourly percentages for RE4 and SMBW. They're all over the place because there's so few votes.

Yesmar_ posted...

God, look at those hourly percentages for RE4 and SMBW. They're all over the place because there's so few votes.

Wonder had an hour where it got 5.88% of the vote.

So what I’m taking from this is if an absurd early vote game like Melee had “only” a doubling against Baldur’s Gate 3 at the freeze, the latter could still plausibly win just by normal trends.

TotK finally remember there's a match today and got a gain.

...And BG3 took that personally.

Been nothing but stalls and cuts since the first five minutes until just now. I think our GotY is about to take the lead, and I wonder if we're seeing our new Game of the Decade front-runner here too -- probably a battle between BG3 and ER.

Let's stick around six years and see if we have a contest to test the hypothesis.

Lead change!

Yeah, this isn't going to end up close.

While it's a little disappointing we aren't going to get more of a close match, I'm glad whoever running it went ahead with the final 1 v 1 poll. Always fun to see.

Got the update spreadsheet for today's poll up and running:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wL6p2B8hLHdgGQoFzSPXWibg0NjW-FWX1QfKKpj1BHw/pub?gid=1966076412

Other than the first 5 minutes of the poll, I'm using GameFAQs's poll data for the updates after the board vote.

KamikazePotato posted...

Yeah, this isn't going to end up close.

While it's a little disappointing we aren't going to get more of a close match, I'm glad whoever running it went ahead with the final 1 v 1 poll. Always fun to see.

It's been fun. It's been years since I last mashed refresh on poll results and I got to do that for two days in a row.

TeamRocketElite posted...

It's been years since I last mashed refresh on poll results and I got to do that for two days in a row.

BG3 is my personal new Game of the Year because its wack-ass trends makes watching the polls fun.

TotK with a cut! Link will not go down so easily.

BG3 ends the Power Hour with a 19 vote lead over TotK (according to GameFAQs's update data).

Seems like TotK is just going to slowly fall apart from here on out.

Speaking of marked trends and such...

Baldur's Gate 3 vs. (the original) Super Mario RPG, who ya got?

We don’t know how strong TotK is because we have no points of comparison. Jumping to “IT’S ONE OF THE WEAKEST ZELDA GAMES” is very extreme. I would probably say BG3 is very strong but we don’t know how much so yet.

Eh WRPGs had a pretty good showing last contest, so I'd wager BG3 is somewhere along the likes of Witcher and Skyrim and Dark Souls in terms of strength.

We are almost ten years without a normal games contest so it's almost impossible to make a real comparison to past games in strength, though.

Yeah I mean in general the tastes around here are for big RPGs and Action Adventure games, the WRPG/JRPG distinction is largely irrelevant. Of course if you did make that distinction WRPGs are a lot stronger than JRPGs these days!