Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1375 - Thank you, Allen!

@SBAllen

*salute*

Best wishes and godspeed, my friend.

Also barring a miracle, Baldur's Gate 3 is winning Game of the Year 1v1 over a main line Zelda title. WesternRPGFAQs, hell yes.

~*creativename's contest site*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analyses*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Main_Page

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

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https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Closest_Wire-to-Wire_Matches

~*All-Time Guru List*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/All_Time_Guru_Rankings

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https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's extrapolated percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Soon we will be revisiting the 2004 and 2009 Games Contests!

I've unironically considered putting SMFFFC stuff in here but I think GMUN and Lefty have that covered already, lmao

A main Zelda game is beaten by a SRPG PC game. Really. In this site? This is the strangest result ever in these polls. Okay one of the more strange ones at least.

I feel like the B8 bubble has blindsided some people here. It's surprising that TotK is losing, but not that surprising. Baldur's Gate 3 is ridiculously popular and broke into the mainstream.

It's also not just on PC.

Baldur’s Gate 3 only has 300-something ratings on gamefaqs across all platforms and while new games gets less and less engagement every year (probably not helped by some bad recent changes) that’s still fairly low even considering the release year - Super Mario Bros Wonder came out in October and is also in the 300 - 400 range. So I figured regardless of what the critics or mainstream thought, it hadn’t quite really penetrated for most on gamefaqs yet (I had Souls’ struggles in years past in mind) and could only win off its opponents’ weakness - and that TotK’s floor was gonna be too high for that.

Obviously was quite badly wrong here!

It's one thing to be super popular and mainstream. It's another thing to beat a well liked Zelda game on GameFAQs.

I think I overestimated Zelda if anything.

Poll updates and trend charts for the 4-way and 1v1 GotY polls:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wL6p2B8hLHdgGQoFzSPXWibg0NjW-FWX1QfKKpj1BHw/pub?gid=2056357076

1v1 poll trend charts:

Time | BG3 | TOTK | Votes
1:00 | 51.25% | 48.75% | 759
2:00 | 51.32% | 48.68% | 456
3:00 | 55.47% | 44.53% | 384
4:00 | 53.55% | 46.45% | 338
5:00 | 54.95% | 45.05% | 293
6:00 | 54.27% | 45.73% | 328
7:00 | 51.94% | 48.06% | 335
8:00 | 55.50% | 44.50% | 373
9:00 | 53.64% | 46.36% | 453
10:00 | 58.23% | 41.77% | 419
11:00 | 57.33% | 42.67% | 375
12:00 | 55.50% | 44.50% | 391
13:00 | 57.89% | 42.11% | 342
14:00 | 53.77% | 46.23% | 305
15:00 | 54.74% | 45.26% | 285
16:00 | 56.52% | 43.48% | 253
17:00 | 53.33% | 46.67% | 240
18:00 | 55.71% | 44.29% | 210
19:00 | 55.07% | 44.93% | 207
20:00 | 51.27% | 48.73% | 197
21:00 | 59.11% | 40.89% | 203
22:00 | 54.82% | 45.18% | 166
23:00 | 46.63% | 53.37% | 178
24:00 | 53.55% | 46.45% | 183

Time | BG3 | TOTK | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 40.88% | 59.12% | 137 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 51.25% | 48.75% | 759 | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 53.75% | 46.25% | 1799 | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 53.75% | 46.25% | 1161 | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 56.33% | 43.67% | 1976 | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 55.35% | 44.65% | 1617 | (14:00-22:00)
SNV | 50.14% | 49.86% | 361 | (22:00-24:00)

BG3 rocked TotK for 46 straight hours before TotK won a single hour over BG3.

As with the 4-way poll, TotK dominated the early vote and did its best work during the Power Hour, but the rest of the poll was all BG3.

man not a single hour with 1000 votes

this is sad to see

I mean what do you expect? We all know this site is a rellic of the past. But hey.
Also PC winning. What is going on this year???

So PC finally gets its win. It’s been repeatedly close but never quite pulled it off until now.

Safer_777 posted...

Also PC winning. What is going on this year???

The Switch is old, the PS5 had a weaker year and a PC-focused game just won GOTY. I mean PC has consistently looked good do it’s not a shocker.

Platform of the year is pretty neat.

I wonder what wins 2024. Looks like a weaker year tbh. FFVII Rebirth is the obvious early frontrunner but I suspect unless it’s a huge leap over Remake it will be somewhat weaker. Likely that Nintendo have a surprise big game for the Switch 2 out this year!!!

Metroid Prime 4 let’s go

If Switch 2 comes this year it might have something. From what we currently know Rebirth could win due to lack of competition alone.

LightningStrikes posted...

I wonder what wins 2024. Looks like a weaker year tbh. FFVII Rebirth is the obvious early frontrunner but I suspect unless it’s a huge leap over Remake it will be somewhat weaker. Likely that Nintendo have a surprise big game for the Switch 2 out this year!!!

Metroid Prime 4 let’s go

Nobody would have expected Baldur's Gate 3 to contend, and Rebirth will be closer to Mario Wonder than TotK/BG3 so I expect some upcoming WRPG to end up being a massive hit again.

Apparently if you'd been following BG3 is early access you would have definitely expected it to contend, but who was doing that?

Still requires some WRPG to actually release and be good.

Here are your non-Rebirth contenders that are already announced for this year:

Dragon’s Dogma 2 - Seems like a potential breakout sequel.

Avowed - Probably not but it’s a big story focused action RPG from Obsidian so it could be worth something.

Hades 2 - If it’s eligible which it probably won’t be.

Metal Gear Solid Delta: Snake Eater - Again probably not but if it’s a RE2 level remake, maybe.

Metaphor ReFantazio - It’s the Persona 5 team doing one of those, could pull an Elden Ring?

Hellblade II - Another long shot but again this could be another breakout sequel.

Star Wars Outlaws - A huge high quality Star Wars Action Adventure game should be like catnip but I don’t really trust Ubisoft to deliver.

Those are all the ones that feel possible (not likely). Of course the huge question mark of this year is Nintendo, it all depends on what they do.

Time to see what Rebirth can do

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/9426-

Rebirth dominating this poll easily.

This year is going to be so much weaker than 2023.

Dragon’s Dogma II doing better than Elden Ring in its equivalent poll you say

who's making these polls that they sneak Trails onto there

must be someone we know

Trails is doing ok as well.

Bloober really about to let down a whole lot of people

KamikazePotato posted...

This year is going to be so much weaker than 2023.

Yeah, there was literally nothing on that poll that I was super excited about.

KamikazePotato posted...

This year is going to be so much weaker than 2023.

That's okay. More time for backlog and replays.

SHINE_GET_64 posted...

who's making these polls that they sneak Trails onto there

must be someone we know

And it's in 4th!

Which tells you how weak this poll is

KamikazePotato posted...

This year is going to be so much weaker than 2023.

To be fair nothing past June is really announced yet if you look at a release calendar and we still have the Switch 2 and its entire launch lineup to think about

Time for everyone to catch up on Like a Dragon

We have no idea what Nintendo are going to do this year past roughly spring. This does seem like the year for Metroid Prime 4. Along with whatever the launch lineup is for their new platform that is most likely launching at the end of this year, which could even include that game.

Also I think there are announced games that are not on that many people’s radar that will blow up like Elden Ring and Baldur’s Gate 3 did. Of the list I wrote, the most likely game to me seems like Dragon’s Dogma 2. All the ingredients are there and it looks decent here already. I did consider putting Silent Hill 2 on there but Bloober…

I'm not having high hopes for Metroid Prime 4 being anywhere but beyond that.

Wouldn't surprise me if Nintendo released it early next year, similar to when Switch released.

ctesjbuvf posted...

I'm not having high hopes for Metroid Prime 4 being anywhere but beyond that.

Wouldn't surprise me if Nintendo released it early next year, similar to when Switch released.

That's my guess for Switch 2 release too. Sometime in March, before the end of their fiscal year. Get one last X-Mas out of old Switch, then another boost in the spring with new hardware.

LightningStrikes posted...

We have no idea what Nintendo are going to do this year past roughly spring. This does seem like the year for Metroid Prime 4. Along with whatever the launch lineup is for their new platform that is most likely launching at the end of this year, which could even include that game.

Also I think there are announced games that are not on that many people’s radar that will blow up like Elden Ring and Baldur’s Gate 3 did. Of the list I wrote, the most likely game to me seems like Dragon’s Dogma 2. All the ingredients are there and it looks decent here already. I did consider putting Silent Hill 2 on there but Bloober…

I wouldn't hold your hopes up for Prime 4. Good call on DD2 though, the game has all the makings of a banger.

I suppose you could see the site itself trending towards a more western direction just based on Witcher 2 and Skyrim being the clear #2 and #3 games of GotD. Shame that the site's voting based has crashed so hard in the process of it happening.

I could honestly see Prime 4 for the next gen Switch at this point, even if they still make it compatible with current Switch.

They could even make it a launch title.

What is this neutral option messing up the results of the great dogs vs. cats debate?

Go mah cats go.

Bump

Best all-time Smash game poll today:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/9438-

Never change, Board 8

Ultimate won two "best all-time" Smash game polls (with similar results both times), but now Melee is winning this poll.

It ain't gonna stay winning. Melee's early vote is completely and entirely ridiculous. It's the Anti-Baldur's Gate 3.

Smash 4 with a whopping 2 votes

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate now has a dominant lead, though its % is less than the last time the poll was ran.

The percentages are close to the same from the other two polls, except Ultimate has gone down and "I've never played one" has gone up.

Smash 4 really was the awkward middle child, huh

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6235-which-is-best-all-time-super-smash-bros-game

Potentially the biggest poll dropoff ever.