Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1378

Yeah because The Witcher III was just that strong. I had The Witcher III making it to the finals because of confidence in The Witcher III not doubt in Skyrim.

The only time Skyrim looked shaky was against Journey in round 2. Now Journey had literally just been made free so it probably boosted a lot. Otherwise it hit its marks and didn’t look meaningfully weaker than 2015 as far as I could tell. If we’re being honest 61% against Mario Kart 8 is probably better than 67% against Phoenix Wright.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3778-gear-division-round-1-solid-snake-vs-proto-man

This was considered a minor underperformance by Snake (the Oracle average was about 75%). Nothing concerning but not inspiring if you picked him to beat Sephiroth. I never thought Protoman would ever get a winnable match, and then he came up just short in 2013. Poor guy deserves better.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3779-gear-division-round-1-lloyd-irving-vs-fox-mccloud

This was Fox's first one-on-one win in seven years, and like his win over Pikachu in 2003, it was a doubling. It was a bad week for Symphonia with Kratos losing to Sackboy and Lloyd getting beat down.

So uh which of Lloyd/Kratos A/Velvet would we take to win if they were all in a group with like, a complete nothing character

Well, Lloyd got 31% on Ryu and Velvet got 29% on Yoshi in 2018, so I'd guess they probably aren't that far apart. If it was a 4-way or something, I guess Velvet would win because Lloyd and Kratos would LFF each other too much.

Unless something is off with Sephiroth (which I believed we've debated a good many times) then the result on Yoshi is better. Indirectly I have no idea though.

LightningStrikes posted...

Yeah because The Witcher III was just that strong. I had The Witcher III making it to the finals because of confidence in The Witcher III not doubt in Skyrim.

That only strengthens my point that before the contest people didn't think Skyrim would be weaker! It came during the contest, although by the end Skyrim looked better than people thought it did. I'd still be surprised if Skyrim hadn't weakened since though, and I don't see why Persona 5 would. With little room to spare, I'd take the latter in a rematch.

Foxxos for the win!🦊

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3780-gear-division-round-1-pikachu-vs-banjo

We've discussed which character has had the biggest strength increase over the years, and Pikachu is up there. From not being able to break 55% on Parappa and getting quadrupled by Cloud to tripling Banjo 8 years later, and then beating a Noble Niner one-on-one 8 years after that, it's been quite a journey for save_us.rat.

If one thinks Pikachu didn't SFF Banjo, Pikachu is in the lose under 30%, win over 70% club.

It's hard to tell because we've never gotten a match with Banjo in it that didn't have another Nintendo character involved

But Pikachu might be the only character who's gotten a tripling and gotten tripled regardless

I cant think of a character that has increased in strength more than Pikachu. Unless you're someone like Nathan Drake or Shepard, who started out so dire that becoming respectable contenders (at least temporarily) was like a 10x increase.

Actually, I already know I'm wrong because Yoshi and Ganondorf also fall into that category, fittingly enough both getting wrecked by Link in 2004.

They might be the only three though.

Wait, no, Squall qualifies, too. So that's four (for now unless we find more).

Liquid Snake qualifies as well.

Yesmar_ posted...

Liquid Snake qualifies as well.

And probably the only one to do both in the same contest!

(Somehow) Max Payne qualifies as well.

I always forget how bad he beat Dirk

What a collection of characters

Leonhart4 posted...

I always forget how bad he beat Dirk

What a collection of characters

I still don’t understand the first bracket. For example why did it include 3 KOF characters but Mario was the only from his franchise, unless tou count Donkey Kong as a Mario character!

I mean King of Fighters is awesome but come on!

Oh and we also got two Dead or Alive characters who aren’t Ryu Hayabusa, but at least Tina won over Gordon Freeman so that is funny. ^^

First bracket was handpicked by CJayC I think. So he probably just liked KoF.

Since there was Golden Sun chat earlier I will use this topic as the venue to say that the soundtrack is on the Nintendo Music app. What a banger.

I know there were no formal nominations, but I think CJayC asked CE for suggestions. They must have been big into fighting games because there were a lot of them in the bracket!

Yeah, I've heard the story about him asking CE multiple times before. CJayC probably just made the sure big icons and franchises were there and then not too much thought was put into filling it out from there.

KamikazePotato posted...

I cant think of a character that has increased in strength more than Pikachu. Unless you're someone like Nathan Drake or Shepard, who started out so dire that becoming respectable contenders (at least temporarily) was like a 10x increase.

As for this, I don't think so either. Perhaps if you count R1 2007 vs. Final 2007 L-Block, but it's a stretch.

Snake deserves a mention though.

Zelda boosted even more than Snake, going from firmly outside the Noble Nine to beating Snake himself. But it probably is Nathan Drake overall, who went from getting more than doubled by CATS to going nearly equal with The Boss. Somebody who comes from nothing will be more impressive than someone who was already very strong.

Zelda didn't boost beyond Snake's peak though, where he was worth 48% on a Cloud who was still very strong in 2010.

She still probably boosted more overall either way just because of where she started in 2003, but yeah.

Oh yeah Zelda deserves a mention for sure as well. Although 2018 Zelda doesn't beat Snake from the contests before that one. Snake at his peak was somewhat close to Link.

Its hard to use 2013 for much, but that might have been peak Snake.

2013 was still close to peak, too, although I'm reluctant to use bonus matches since they don't have actual stakes attached to them.

Also I'd say Pikachu still has the most impressive rise. You can go from nothing to respectable from one well received game. Going from essentially fodder to beating Noble Niners is a much tougher task.

Pokemon in general rose significantly

don’t know what caused it in 07-08 but could just be more accepted by gamers

That of course was following a huge Snake rally the previous day. I’ve never bought that Snake was naturally all that close to Link, and even that bonus poll was only equal to Cloud’s 2010 performance. Other than that CBIX was so nutty it’s hard to get a good read on him. Frankly 78% on Isaac doesn’t shout “naturally close to Link” to me.

LiquidOshawott posted...

Pokemon in general rose significantly

don’t know what caused it in 07-08 but could just be more accepted by gamers

Diamond & Pearl were hugely successful on DS and helped detoxify the brand. It is easy to forget that Pokémon was absolutely hated in the early to mid-2000’s by a certain section of the audience.

Yeah, I agree it's Pikachu, I just thought Snake deserved a mention. I also agree Zelda boosted more probably, just not above peak Snake. I'm not taking the bonus point at face value either, at least it comes with great uncertainties, but I do think Snake could beat Cloud 1v1 that year. I think Link is the only NN'er Snake has not met 1v1 outside of that bonus poll, ironically, but this is still a huge increase from where he was the first couple of contests.

Hasn't Isaac shown to be a very good fodder line rep before? I think 78% on him is pretty good and if Link gets around 80% naturally, that seems pretty good and reasonable to me.

Pokémon was hated in the 00s for its exposure in particular among the demographics of this site at the time. Pikachu was definitely anti-voted beyond belief those first contests, and GSC in Spring 04 too. Daimond and Pearl helped but I think it was also just a change in taste. the 4-ways format allowed Pikachu to make the gap seem bigger than it was too, even if both Pikachu and Mewtwo needed some rough LFF to reach the quarters, any anti-voting that might have been left at that point just didn't do much in that format.

LightningStrikes posted...

Diamond & Pearl were hugely successful on DS and helped detoxify the brand. It is easy to forget that Pokémon was absolutely hated in the early to mid-2000’s by a certain section of the audience.

Which is ironic, since the GBA games were much, much better than Diamond & Pearl.

While I probably agree, I don't think that was concensus at the time.

Yeah I should clarify that I’d say nobody has been naturally close to Link since the mid-2000’s. If that bonus poll was legit, he looked comparable to Cloud, in fact Cloud in 2010 did 0.02% better on Link than Snake did. That is just a big “if”. Of course if we are to say that at his height Snake was in the same region as Cloud and Mario, to bring it back to Zelda she got 49% on Cloud and beat Mario!

It would be good to see an in-contest Link vs Snake, but to be honest these days Link would just melt Snake both through sapping that Smash support and from having ascended to heaven thanks to Breath of the Wild. The boost that game gave was crazy.

And yeah on Pokémon there had been a softening already, it did much better than expected on Metroid in the Series contest, but it still lost. Diamond & Pearl helped speed that along. From there onwards it beats Metroid outright and it likely would not be close now.

And yeah Diamond & Pearl were viewed as a big step up at the time. That’s since been re-evaluated I think.

Diamond and Pearl came with many new features but most notable for its success I think were the online features. Latter, they were vastly overshadowed by the other DS games. RB was on the other hand not that popular at release for lack of Pokemon accessibility among other things.

LightningStrikes posted...

Of course if we are to say that at his height Snake was in the same region as Cloud and Mario, to bring it back to Zelda she got 49% on Cloud and beat Mario!

That's a weaker Cloud and a bandwagoned Zelda though! I don't think Zelda gets as close to Mario/Cloud that contest if she hasn't just pulled an all time run leading up to those matches. Her opening vote against Link supports this. I would guess Mario was somewhat in line with his usual strength that contest and him being equal to Cloud was because of Cloud's fall from grace.

There was definitely some bandwagoning but then that argument also applies to 2013 Snake. And the way that early Zelda vote crumbled against Link kind of highlights that it can’t have been that much of it. There is also a synthesis of the two positions that is not necessarily what I feel but worth considering: Zelda/Snake/Cloud/Mario/Samus are all on roughly the same level and Samus simply SFF’d Snake in 2018. With Link standing far above everybody. That seems like the simplest answer.

Or Mario rSFF'd Samus

I think there's a decent argument for Samus being #2 and it's more likely than Samus SFFing Snake despite them being 50/50 and Snake beating her in 2013

I am willing to just throw 2013 out for many reasons and Snake just simply declined due to how people viewed MGSV and all the s*** surrounding Kojima

the decline isn’t enough to make him below like Sonic (though I wonder how much the movies would help him now) but it’s enough to put him a little out of the Samus/Mario/Cloud tier

LightningStrikes posted...

Zelda/Snake/Cloud/Mario/Samus are all on roughly the same level

I don't disagree that these are somewhat close, but I also think all of those are weaker than peak Snake, who was stronger than Mario and close to an ealier Cloud (not only 00s Cloud, but 10). It was that this comparison: Of course if we are to say that at his height Snake was in the same region as Cloud and Mario, to bring it back to Zelda she got 49% on Cloud and beat Mario! doesn't work because 2018 Cloud was below the Cloud which peak Snake had reached but Zelda couldn't beat him and probably also loses to Mario without the bandwagon. Link didn't only get that far ahead because of BotW, his closest competition declined a good.

Yeah, I dunno. I really wish Allen had set up the bracket better so we didn't get a bunch of rematches and we could've gotten a clearer view of the Noble Nine hierarchy.

Not that it matters because things have changed since then anyway. Samus is probably a clear #2 now because of Dread and Prime 4 (supposedly) on the horizon.

I definitely would not use that Samus/Snake 2013 result for anything!

i’m not sure I follow Leon, Samus got 56.5% on Snake. I’m saying they would be 50/50 naturally and Samus took Snake’s Smash support. Which is an argument dating back to 2006 in fact!

Leonhart4 posted...

Yeah, I dunno. I really wish Allen had set up the bracket better so we didn't get a bunch of rematches and we could've gotten a clearer view of the Noble Nine hierarchy.

Not that it matters because things have changed since then anyway. Samus is probably a clear #2 now because of Dread and Prime 4 (supposedly) on the horizon.

I still pick Cloud over her but not with confidence

I don't think Prime 4 would make a difference tbh, that had already been announced by the time of that contest and I don't think we were aware of delays yet at that point. It's not like the recent trailer created that much hype eiither. We'll see what happens when the game comes. Dread could boost a bit though.

Cloud's strength after Remake and Rebirth would probably be up for debate too, I'm not convinced Samus is #2 though it's possible.

LightningStrikes posted...

I’m saying they would be 50/50 naturally and Samus took Snake’s Smash support. Which is an argument dating back to 2006 in fact!

Yeah, and I didn't buy it back then either. We assumed Snake was going to win because Samus struggled against Tifa (which has a plausible explanation) and Zelda (bandwagon effect for Zelda, who knows, the performance isn't consistent with reality. Zelda wasn't on par with Sonic or Mega Man back then. Even if you assume Samus SFF'd Snake, it makes them basically equals and that wasn't true). Samus was just stronger in 2006. She just had a couple weird matches.

And I forgot about the potential effect of Remake/Rebirth for Cloud. That might still be close then. I dunno how much the MGS3 Remake helps Snake considering it's Big Boss, but it helps bring the series back to relevance, at least for a little bit.

Also I thought that the current dogma was that Cloud got stronger in 2018 thanks to Smash. At the very least he looked solid, squeaking past Mario and Zelda as well as getting 58% on Crono.

The thing is everybody’s a Nintendo character now so those lines between the top non-Link characters are going to be more blurred than ever. And that 2018 Samus/Snake margin just seems unusually large to me. It was actually nearly 3.5% bigger than the 2006 margin was.

Honestly with Smash and the Remake games Cloud is probably still number 2. He looked like he was hanging onto that title by a thread in 2018 and if anything I think he might have shored that up since. Unless Metroid Prime 4 is a Breath of the Wild style breakout for the Metroid franchise.

Cloud got stronger due to Smash, yeah, but he's still a far cry from his peak. Remake had been announced by then, too, so that probably helped.

And the fact that he still beat Mario and Zelda (who didn't "sap" his Smash strength) is another argument against Samus Smash SFFing Snake. Either Samus/Snake is an anomaly or Mario/Samus is. It's hard to reconcile both of those results.

Or Cloud is simply strong enough to resist it. The question is “do people only vote for this character due to Smash” or “did the inclusion in Smash just revitalise interest from people who already knew the character”. The first can be true for Snake and the second can be true for Cloud. After all Snake’s big boost was following that Smash announcement suggesting a lot of people were only ever there for Smash.

Or maybe Snake was just overrated and Zelda bandwagoned that much. There is only one way to find out, another contest (please)!

Well, it's been 7 years, our vote totals have tanked, and a lot has changed since then, so it wouldn't necessarily answer questions from 2018.

Zelda probably had a bandwagon effect going if it allowed her to beat Mario despite the hierarchy, but she was clearly trending upward even before that looking at her early performances.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Pokémon was hated in the 00s for its exposure in particular among the demographics of this site at the time.

All this time, I assumed it's because they thought it was "kiddy."