Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1379

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3843-chaos-division-final-sonic-vs-kirby

There were some rumblings that Kirby could give Sonic some trouble based on the puffball's unexpected run in 2008. It was 50/50 for the first minute, but then Sonic established control of the match. It certainly wasn't a dominant win, but it was never in doubt beyond the early moments. Kirby also preserved his streak of getting 45% or more in all of his one-on-one losses.

ctesjbuvf posted...

How about the ones from 2 that made it to Smash?

Totally possible, IMO, though I get the sense recency bias matters more, what with the two I mentioned being the well-regarded main protagonists of a popular, well-liked game. I'd sooner expect Pyra and Mythra (and Shulk) to also make the bracket, actualizing Xenoblade as the new Tales. I say that all without having a read on the Xenoblade fanbase, though.

Also feel like Kazuya Mishima has significant bracket-reaching potential among Smash DLC characters, thanks partly to Tekken 8.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3844-mushroom-division-final-mario-vs-mega-man

Hardly anyone thought Mega Man could actually win this match, but we hoped he'd be rewarded for a fantastic contest with a good showing, maybe take an early lead with his strong board vote. Nope, Mario wouldn't even let him have that. He had 60% at the freeze and reminded us why he's the true villain of these contests.

The only notable thing about this match is that it took place during time change, so it only ran for 11 hours. At least we didn't get a scenario where Mario only won because the match didn't run for the normal length...!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3845-heart-division-final-bowser-vs-charizard

This match was a perfect storm for Charizard. Not only was he riding a bandwagon, but this match happened on the release date for HG/SS. Bowser was still the big favorite on the board going into the match, but there was definitely this lingering uncertainty with those factors at play.

Sure enough, Charizard got off to a fast start and never looked back. Bowser would get his revenge in 2018, but on this day, Charizard and the 3.17% of brackets that had him advancing were the big winners.

Not a fraud.

I forget if there was a reason that was a Lv33 Charizard.

TeamRocketElite posted...

Not a fraud.

I forget if there was a reason that was a Lv33 Charizard.

Became a fraud later, much like Mewtwo...!

Leonhart4 posted...

He had 60% at the freeze and reminded us why he's the true villain of these contests.

I don’t know why but I always want Mario to lose. I love that Crono has his one win and Vivi of all characters upset him.

Charizard probably loses without HGSS.

He’s not a fraud, he just caught bandwagon plus a release date.

Leonhart4 posted...

Became a fraud later, much like Mewtwo...!

It is funny how Charizard's results get moderately worse each contest. He's like that one guy that peaked in high school. "I beat Bowser! I got within striking distance of Mario!" And it was all downhill from there.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3846-varia-division-final-samus-aran-vs-zelda

In the Female Bracket final in 2006, Zelda put up an odd overperformance on Samus for whatever the reason. Four years later, Samus makes it look easy and does her part to get ready for her big showdown with Cloud next round.

Is that the match pic where I snuck in a Valentine’s thing? That one was fantastic.

Funny how a bunch of optional cutscenes made Zelda go from "meh" to godslayer.

Then again, Vincent was optional and he was powerful for a while.

Yeah, "it's optional" was always a bad argument. If it's a big deal, people will find it, and if anything, they're more likely to come here to find it.

It is still a bit weird that Vincent was stronger than other main cast members. You'd think Barret or Red XIII would be more popular considering they're mandatory and show up earlier in the game than he does, yet Barret took forever to get into a contest and Red's been completely absent.

Speaking of Red, you'd think being a cool wolf from one of the site's most popular games means he's a midcarder by default. Maybe in a post-Rebirth contest he might show up?

Nah, Vincent's popularity makes total sense, especially during the era when we were mostly still teenagers and college students. He has an edgy, mysterious appeal with a great design. It's not too surprising he's fallen off as we've gotten older and we don't gravitate toward his archetype as much anymore.

Red XIII could never make it through the NRT, for whatever the reason. I thought he should've been the choice in 2010 when Cid was the VII rep, but alas, more people saw it the other way.

Leonhart4 posted...

Yeah, "it's optional" was always a bad argument. If it's a big deal, people will find it, and if anything, they're more likely to come here to find it.

Especially given the structure of Breath of the Wild. It doesn’t really feel optional even though it was!

I always felt that Zelda performance in 2006 was a finals boost like Sephiroth in 2003.

LightningStrikes posted...

I always felt that Zelda performance in 2006 was a finals boost like Sephiroth in 2003.

It 100% was because that performance made her Noble Nine tier. For whatever the reason, people drew the wrong conclusion (Samus must have SFF'd Snake!) when the easiest solution to reconcile the numbers is just that Zelda overperformed.

Yeah, I'm sure if we had polls of the day showing what archetype people liked most, we would have seen the 'dark, mysterious character' option steadily fall over time.

Similarly, I don't think these two polls aligning with a massive boost for female characters is a coincidence:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3636-when-creating-a-custom-game-character-which-gender-do-you
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6262-when-creating-a-custom-game-character-which-gender-do-you

the misogyny of youth matures into the goonery of adulthood

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3847-midgar-division-final-cloud-strife-vs-ryu

Up to this point, Ryu had faced Samus, Snake, Sonic, and Mega Man one-on-one, and he had broken 40% on all of them. Everyone knew that streak would end here, but Cloud still surpassed the Oracle average by 2% here. He had put up his best performance of the contest at the right time, with a 2004 rematch with Samus coming up next.

pjbasis posted...

the misogyny of youth matures into the goonery of adulthood

Amazing how succinctly accurate this is

Samus still beats Zelda today, right?

Seanchan posted...

Samus still beats Zelda today, right?

Yeah, I feel pretty confident she does.

I would take Samus over Zelda. Zelda only narrowly beat Mario with bandwagon power. She probably isn't quite that strong anymore which is enough for Samus to win.

Some of my old pictures are a bit rough.

TeamRocketElite posted...

I would take Samus over Zelda. Zelda only narrowly beat Mario with bandwagon power. She probably isn't quite that strong anymore which is enough for Samus to win.

Yeah, I doubt Zelda today is as strong as she was in 2018 when BotW was at its peak. Plus, Samus (theoretically) has Metroid Prime 4 on the horizon, and she's also had Dread since the last Character Battle.

She'll beat Mario next time. (The match will take place on the release day of Super Mario Odyssey 2. It doesn't end will for Samus)

Theoretically, Samus getting her first major releases in 18 years with Metroid Dread and Prime 4 should help her more than Wonder and Odyssey 2 help Mario.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3848-gear-division-final-solid-snake-vs-squall

I had high hopes that Squall could improve his percentage on their 2006 match, but alas, it was not meant to be. I'm not sure if a night match or a 24 hour match would've helped him too much since Snake does well at night, too, but breaking 40% on this version of the character (who would go on to beat Sephiroth and outdo Samus against Cloud) should still be viewed as a good showing for Squall. If only he could've faced Sonic, Crono, or even Mega Man instead! Squall was also the only 2 seed in the entire contest to get past the second round.

As a lead Samus might be able to hierarchy her way over Zelda, but with Tears and Echoes I doubt she has weakened all that much.

She's probably just down to what she was in 18 without bandwagon effect.

ctesjbuvf posted...

She's probably just down to what she was in 18 without bandwagon effect.

Would Samus get 63% on Squall?

MacArrowny posted...

Would Samus get 63% on Squall?

Unfortunately

I think 2018 Samus was (indirectly) the second strongest character. She just didn't get a chance to prove it (other than the Snake result, I guess!).

On 2018 Squall sure.

Zelda and Snake were even Samus easily beat Snake, that's all we need.

even if I hate the ff8 remake, if it makes squall stronger, bring it on

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3849-jenova-division-final-sephiroth-vs-tifa-lockheart

This is somehow only the second most surprising Sephiroth vs. Tifa match, but make no mistake: Virtually nobody saw this coming. Only two people in the Oracle had Sephiroth under 60% (and one of those was 59.98%), and it was actually 50/50 for the first ten minutes. It was hard to deny now that Sephiroth was in trouble after Snake had just put up nearly 60% on Squall.

In hindsight, I'm wondering if Sephiroth SFF'd Vincent at all or if this was just the beginning of his decline.

Tifa doesn't so bad matches.

And everyone had forgotten this 8 years later. I think Luigi and MMX over Sephiroth were somewhat popular upset picks but everyone assumed Tifa would get SFFd by Sephiroth if she was the one to get there.

Well, we had never seen the hierarchy upended like that, at least not to that degree

Yeah, I remember thinking Tifa could be as stronger or even stronger than Seph with the way the 2018 contest was playing out, but the idea of her winning that match direct just felt absurd until it was on the front page

pjbasis posted...

the misogyny of youth matures into the goonery of adulthood

It's this discussion again! We just needed to realize it applied within fanbases as well.

Tifa is so overrated as a character. Everyone wants her in everything these days and the only reason is probably her chest size.

shane15 posted...

Tifa is so overrated as a character. Everyone wants her in everything these days and the only reason is probably her chest size.

She almost beat Samus when she had more TJF in the match pic than Tifa...!

Nah, Tifa is part of the best story moment in the original. She was always the second best character in that game.

shane15 posted...

Tifa is so overrated as a character. Everyone wants her in everything these days and the only reason is probably her chest size.

Even if this was true, the popularity of almost every character in existence is derived primarily from their character design.

That makes me curious - who's the most powerful "generic" looking character in contest history? Gordon Freeman? Nathan Drake? Leon Kennedy?

For women, Lara Croft, maybe?

Jay Solano beat Link.

Lara Croft and Gordon Freeman have pretty distinctive looks (at least the original Lara did). Gordon just has a really dull name. Nathan Drake is probably the answer.

Leonhart4 posted...

She almost beat Samus when she had more TJF in the match pic than Tifa...!

I still wonder if male characters had something like TJF for people who are attracted to men, and if it applied to Clinkeroth, given their fair share of fangirls.