Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1379

The problem with that chart is that it just shows how insanely frontloaded the FF games are. Spider-Man and God of War both sold three times what VII Remake did lifetime. So it is a series that sells like half its lifetime sales in the first week and has very little broader appeal.

"fastest selling" always seems like one of those fake measurements.

The Wii U was the fastest selling Nintendo console iirc

My understanding is sales in Japan tend to be very frontloaded and I'd expect Japan to be a much higher percentage of the total sales for an FF game than a western game.

Maybe they should put in more minigames

I think you're heavily overestimating what these sales numbers would mean in a gamefaqs setting.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3854-final-rounds-semifinal-link-vs-mario

We only got three 24-hour matches the entire contest and this was one of them. What a waste.

ctesjbuvf posted...

I think you're heavily overestimating what these sales numbers would mean in a gamefaqs setting.

yeah but if FF was a 20+ million seller like Zelda right now, it would make a difference. You'd think Zelda couldn't get any stronger, and yet it did.

I mean, I'm not saying FF making game of the decade (or just half of that) wouldn't boost it a good bit. Nor have I said sales doesn't matter at all.

Just that something like FXVI selling less than FXV wouldn't matter on a site like this. Sure, FXV had a higher ceiling but people kinda turned on it. Remake has sold more than FFVI and VI is among the strongest games on the site. Chrono Trigger might very well be the strongest game on the site despite not being that well selling and not being relevant in forever. You just need a good amount of the core site to have played it and then it's all about their opinion. Especially with votals being what they are.

Exactly, it’s not that the low sales are causing FF to drop. It’s that the low sales are emblematic of the unpopularity of FF right now. Something that is even getting through to the core on here. We saw this happen in 2018, it was a bad contest for Final Fantasy, if there were another and we got a similar number of FF characters in it would be rough as the situation for that franchise has only gotten worse. The exceptions I feel are Cloud, Aerith, and Tifa thanks to the Remake games.

Which ties in to what pj is saying, the Switch boost of 2018 was real. If Nintendo and particularly Zelda can boost, any franchise can still change.

Edit: On FFVI that is a difficult comparison to make because the original version did not release in Europe which would narrow things, and was more skewed to Japan than North America. Final Fantasy got large amounts of its western popularity from VII. What makes VI so strong here is not the original SNES release but the rereleases and emulation. Loads of people discovered that game late, myself included. Look at the playrate polls here, nearly 40% of people who say they played VI played it emulated or a rerelease, likely more when you account for the odd phrasing of the top option.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Just that something like FXVI selling less than FXV wouldn't matter on a site like this.

For sure. FFXV could outsell FFXVI 2-to-1, but if the people that played them prefer Clive to Noctis at a 3-to-1 rate, Clive will still be stronger too.

Remake has outsold FFVI including releases, emulation is of course not a parameter that can be easily judged.

No, it has not gotten worse, not in terms of what matters in these contest settings. The people that had "turned on it" in 2018 either haven't returned or they have because the games coming since then have been positively received. You're using sales as a case for a downward spiral continuing but the damage was done by then and that's the damage you're seeing in sales. There is no reason for it to have gotten worse since 2018.

ctesjbuvf posted...

There is no reason for it to have gotten worse since 2018.

Disagree. I see the point you're making that FF reception in and of itself hasn't changed since 2018, but remember these contests are a zero sum game. Cloud doesn't have to get weaker, but if Link Mario and Samus get stronger, it'll feel the same as if he did.

And if you're someone who likes all four of those characters roughly the same, I can easily imagine your vote shifting based on which one you're actually engaged with most recently.

FF reception is if anything probably better since then. The arguement doesn't hold for me because it'd be the same as saying everything but Zelda got weaker in 2018 since the series boosted. If Mario and Samus rise noticeably for whatever reason that does not mean FF has gotten worse.

In principle I agree with the second paragraph but I don't think the scenario of liking the elites about equally applies too often, and again, Cloud has had multiple games since last time so they're all relevant in that sense. On the other hand, Crono looked better in 2018 than previously which is partly a bit of luck in what the votebase shrunk to as he beat Mega Man despite the latter clearly being more relevant.

ctesjbuvf posted...

FF reception is if anything probably better since then.

idk what you can really point to that says this EXCEPT for FFVII, and honestly FFVIIR's reception itself is very mild to me, based on what it could have been on a site that championed it the best game ever.

And yeah Crono Trigger is just like, the foundation of gamefaqs philosophy of gaming. I've been trying to figure out how to word it but sales back then and sales now are completely different in how it affects gamefaqs voters. I think we talk about sales in modern times as a way of judging how many people it could reach. But we don't need to talk about the reach of Ocarina of Time, it already happened, and generally before the community really existed. These games are what created us in the first place.

ctesjbuvf posted...

If Mario and Samus rise noticeably for whatever reason that does not mean FF has gotten worse.

It's semantic I guess. But if my opponents improve in skill and my results decrease as a result, I think of it as getting worse. Even if it's not ALL my opponents that actually increase on me. But they are the most relevant ones, and Nintendo is like half the field so it's not some isolated shift either.

Eh, I think it's hard to say the reception for Rebirth in particular was mild. Generally speaking, it's a beloved game. You'll have your detractors for anything, of course, but it was a hyped release that delivered on the hype.

Sales matter if it comes with introducimg a series or character to new fans, or with a new focus. It's not a flat thing, but it does exist.

For example, Link boosted a ton from Breath of the Wild, in no small part because Breath of the Wild basically outsold every other 3D Zelda combined.

As another example, if a new Mario came out and sold 30 million copies, I would expect it to help Mario a lot less than Metroid Prime 4 selling 30 million copies would help Samus.

Getting 54% on astro bot does not tell me that it lived up to the reception of FF7, not even close.

BotW on the other hand, looks like it could make OoT get 54% on it. This is the kind of potential for reception I'm talking about. I don't think it's unfair either because these franchises were in equal positions two decades ago here.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Sales matter if it comes with introducimg a series or character to new fans, or with a new focus. It's not a flat thing, but it does exist.

For example, Link boosted a ton from Breath of the Wild, in no small part because Breath of the Wild basically outsold every other 3D Zelda combined.

As another example, if a new Mario came out and sold 30 million copies, I would expect it to help Mario a lot less than Metroid Prime 4 selling 30 million copies would help Samus.

Everything here I agree with. The point I'm arguing against is that FF's recent sales have hurt the brand. Those sales reflect damage done previously, which was already done by 2018. So no they don't attract much of a new audience, but for the existing fans of the franchise they've helped the brand and not hurt it. That's the difference I can see them making.

This is all within the context of a GameFAQs contest.

ctesjbuvf posted...

which was already done by FF18.

ctes saying you haven't seen FF at its worst just yet

I think that was a result of changing my mind from writing FFXV to writing 2018 but amusing nonetheless!

pjbasis posted...

Getting 54% on astro bot does not tell me that it lived up to the reception of FF7, not even close.

I mean, I'm not saying the game would be FFVII. It would have no chance against Breath of the Wild. I'm just saying those games were well received because they were.

I also think Rebirth wins more easily against Astro Bot in a contest setting because we understand that PotDs don't translate perfectly to contests. FFVI can beat FFVII in a PotD and get 60/40'd in a contest.

Leonhart4 posted...

I'm just saying those games were well received because they were.

That's fine, but again like 50+ games a year are well received. I'm talking like SPECIAL reception.

pjbasis posted...

That's fine, but again like 50+ games a year are well received. I'm talking like SPECIAL reception.

Yeah and it was the best received of those games that year.

Like if you're wanting these remakes to be on the level of the 90s FFs, it's not gonna happen.

Actually I know you don't want them to be, but even those old FF games aren't what they used to be either.

I didn't bring my personal opinions of the games into this. I'm a BotW-detractor too!

Leonhart4 posted...

Like if you're wanting these remakes to be on the level of the 90s FFs, it's not gonna happen.

But like why not though? It just sounds like you're already writing off Square-Enix's ability. Before the BotW came out you could have easily said "Zelda will never be as popular like used to." I can actually imagine an FF7 remake, or just a brand new FF, that revitalizes the series in a way that's akin to the 90s. There's no reason to say it's impossible.

Well, it's too late for them to be that. They aren't going to have a second wind that raises them up. Well, I guess they could. It happened for FFIX, but I wouldn't bet on it.

And of course it's not impossible for FF to get back to where it once was. I don't think these remakes are going to be what does it though. They're made for a very specific audience that has wanted it for a long time and will love it. I don't know that it extends to new audiences very well.

I'm not exactly an expert in market analysis here, so I'm not sure what answers you're expecting me to give you on why these games aren't as popular as the old ones though! They just didn't land in the same way. Maybe FFXVII will, who knows!

Leonhart4 posted...

They're made for a very specific audience

I don't think this is true though! Where are you even getting this from? Square is a top publisher and developer, and this is their flagship franchise, they want it to be as big as possible! They did not set out to make an expensive trilogy of games just to satisfy a mid-sized specific audience!

I mean I'm sure they wanted to reach a bigger audience overall, but this is primarily a projected fueled by nostalgia, so they knew who the target audience was. They added new stuff to try to draw in new people, but it didn't have the reach they hoped for.

If FFXVI's reception was as good as Shadowbringers, Clive could've been a top-tier character. Shadowbringers shows that it's possible for modern FF to produce a top tier experience that's as remarkable as 90s FF.

Final Fantasy isn't nearly as big of a series as people think it is in terms of sales, it's part of why both XVI and Rebirth failed to meet expectations despite a lot working against them.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Final Fantasy isn't nearly as big of a series as people think it is in terms of sales, it's part of why both XVI and Rebirth failed to meet expectations despite a lot working against them.

FFVII was the best selling game on the PS1. Final Fantasy X was the 6th best selling game on the PS2, and went on to sell over 20 million including the Remasters. It was a huge series in terms of sales. FFXIV has been the second biggest MMO for the last five or six years too, so it still has the potential to sell huge numbers with a breakout hit.

Leonhart4 posted...

They added new stuff to try to draw in new people, but it didn't have the reach they hoped for.

Supposedly that was for the sake of old fans! So that we wouldn't get bored of playing through a story we all know and love of course.

And if that was what they were going for, all I can say is that they massively undervalued their IP. Franchises like Resident Evil are pushing 10+ every single entry. Nintendo churns out 3-5 million hits like it's candy. FF can be doing better, a lot better.

MacArrowny posted...

FFVII was the best selling game on the PS1.

I thought it was behind the Gran Turismos.

I think people also aren't seeing that if a franchise is staying the same in sales, that it represents stagnation. The market is much bigger people! FF7 doing 7 million is 97 is far more impressive than 7R doing 7 million now.

Again, I don't have answers for why these games aren't selling as well as other series! It's not for lack of effort.

I mean being a PS exclusive even for a limited time probably doesn't help, so who knows if they'll change that for part 3

Leonhart4 posted...

so who knows if they'll change that for part 3

I feel like they're already doomed. Unless Rebirth recoups a lot through its PC release or something, a lot of people are bouncing off if they didn't play 2.

Yeah Gran Turismo sold slightly more than FFVII but it was close. Which again really just emphasises how far FF has fallen especially relatively since then.

Leonhart4 posted...

I also think Rebirth wins more easily against Astro Bot in a contest setting because we understand that PotDs don't translate perfectly to contests. FFVI can beat FFVII in a PotD and get 60/40'd in a contest.

I would absolutely take Astro Bot over Rebirth in a contest. Rebirth is likely to only get weaker from here, Astro Bot will likely get stronger. We actually saw this happen in GotD2, FFXV won its Game of the Year poll then looked weaker than Doom, Dark Souls III, and Uncharted 4 from the same year when it came time for the contest a few years later. We have not seen peak Astro Bot yet.

I suppose it's possible. Platformers tend not to do well in contests if they aren't Noble Nine adjacent though.

Leonhart4 posted...

I suppose it's possible. Platformers tend not to do well in contests if they aren't Noble Nine adjacent though.

what platformer that fits is even the strongest that you can compare it to though

I think the game has more of a footprint out there than Rayman Legends/Ratchet Up Your Arsenal/LittleBigPlanet etc

edit: oh I guess the answer is DKC2 or Banjo, which both may have some strength I guess

I guess so, but those were all really popular games and sold a lot! Astro Bot would be an exception to the rule regardless of how you slice it. And maybe it is! I just would hesitate to bet on it.

Not that we'll ever find out.

Astro Bot looks like a playstation mario galaxy to me, so maybe start there

Obviously lower though right?

We also haven’t seen a non-Mario platformer get to the top two of Game of the Year… ever before Astro Bot did it either. There is a very strong chance it is the strongest platformer without Mario or Sonic starring. I hope we do find out!

If there is to be a GotD3, what are the games so far this decade that would be 1 seeds? Elden Ring, Baldur’s Gate 3, Tears of the Kingdom, maybe one of Rebirth/Remake? Asking because I can definitely see Astro Bot being one.

LightningStrikes posted...

We also haven’t seen a non-Mario platformer get to the top two of Game of the Year… ever before Astro Bot did it either. There is a very strong chance it is the strongest platformer without Mario or Sonic starring. I hope we do find out!

If there is to be a GotD3, what are the games so far this decade that would be 1 seeds? Elden Ring, Baldur’s Gate 3, Tears of the Kingdom, maybe one of Rebirth/Remake? Asking because I can definitely see Astro Bot being one.

GTAVI will be one likely (even if it flames out like V does)

and then it’s probably whatever big game from From/Nintendo/Larian/CDPR/Bethesda/Atlus come out in the next half decade if they are another generational game

Super Mario Wonder would get more noms than Astro Bot, though the contest runner could fuzz the bracket to put Astro Bot ahead.

LiquidOshawott posted...

GTAVI will be one likely (even if it flames out like V does)

and then it’s probably whatever big game from From/Nintendo/Larian/CDPR/Bethesda/Atlus come out in the next half decade if they are another generational game

The question was games so far :p

I wonder if all three FFVIIR's would eat each other's nominations, but the field is probably weak enough for one to get a 1 seed.

MacArrowny posted...

Super Mario Wonder would get more noms than Astro Bot, though the contest runner could fuzz the bracket to put Astro Bot ahead.

The question was games so far :p

oh missed the so far part, oops

even so I dunno if the field is that set, half the one seeds in GotD2 weren’t out yet at this point.

I guess a fun debate would be Astro Bot or Ragnarok for which would be more likely to get a 1

FFXV got weaker because the opinion on it soured a lot. Unless the third entry gets hated, Rebirth probably stays the same.

Rebirth is absolutely the type of game to be stronger in a contest setting rather than a poll asking for game of the year.

LightningStrikes posted...

There is a very strong chance it is the strongest platformer without Mario or Sonic starring. I hope we do find out!

hold up "Sonic"?

What Sonic game is so strong that other platformers are surely weaker than it?

Sonic 3 & Knuckles

Allen holding a good hedgehog down!

pjbasis posted...

hold up "Sonic"?

What Sonic game is so strong that other platformers are surely weaker than it?

Sonic 1-3 would double it on OldFAQs.com. And so would any classic Mega Man, Donkey Kong or Kirby game.

There isn't much evidence of a strong Kirby game!

There are probably only three strong Mega Man games

Sonic 2 is so weird because it gets absolutely pasted whenever it faces anything remotely strong and it’s X stats suggest it’s definitely weaker than Persona 5

but I guess the question becomes what platformer can get 53% on Portal 2