Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1380

LiquidOshawott posted...

I feel like Tropical Freeze is more of a meme about it being expensive on the Switch and that hurt its growth there

Wii U in general was pretty spotty this contest (apart from MK8 but that is different)

A Wii U game won the entire thing! The power of the Wii U.

pjbasis posted...

idk Undertale might have been stronger without 2015. How many people voted against it because of that?

Yeah it was always my feeling g that it was anti-voted but we will never know for sure.

I imagine UNDERTALE was anti-voted, but the recognition it got from winning 2015 was likely still a net-positive, especially with bracket voting and everyone being forced to vote in all matches.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

I imagine UNDERTALE was anti-voted, but the recognition it got from winning 2015 was likely still a net-positive, especially with bracket voting and everyone being forced to vote in all matches.

Yeah, this is my take, too. If anything, it might have been a net neutral. Undertale certainly wasn't despised to the extent Draven was.

I think without 2015, Undertale would have completely flown under GameFAQs' radar. It's really not the kind of game we would normally care about. There were definitely some anti-votes, but the exposure probably outweighed that.

It was pretty well seeded in 2015 as well. Probably less strong but still gets a decent seed in 2020.

There's also the fact that UNDERTALE's run in 2015 might have itself played a non-zero role in the growth of the game's fanbase is something to note. The amount of people that might have gotten into League of Legends as a result of Draven is negligible at best, and even more so in the case of Tetris & L-Block, but UNDERTALE's run was the talk of the gaming world during that time, and I know there were people who checked it out to see what this whole thing was about.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7939-division-4-round-1-grand-theft-auto-v-vs-baba-is-you

Grand Theft Auto V got a 1 seed in the 2015 Games Contest, so it came as no surprise that it got a 1 seed in this contest, too. GTA has underachieved in contests for a long time, but not even it could fail to put a massive beatdown on Baba Is You. If I recall correctly, transience ran a topic series once the bracket was revealed asking how many games in the contest you've played, and I believe Baba Is You finished dead last.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7940-division-4-round-1-cuphead-vs-xcom-2

I mentioned previously that there was some debate over what the strongest indie game in the contest would be, and Cuphead was another one of the big contenders. I believe it actually did finish highest in the X-Stats of all the indies when it was all said and done. I don't think many people picked a Cuphead > GTAV upset in the Guru, but many expected it to put up a good fight next round regardless.

I have played Baba is You, it's really good!

Ori ended up looking among the best if not the best. Hollow Knight is probably weaker in the x-stats than it actually is that's up there too.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7941-division-4-round-1-persona-4-golden-vs-ftl-faster-than-light

There was a lot of debate around Persona 4 Golden. Should it have even been included? It's an enhanced port of a 2008 game with new content, not a remake or a brand new game. Would people just treat it as a proxy for Persona 4 or would it stand on its own merits? I think it was still a Vita exclusive at this time. It was a bit of a Wild Card (see what I did there?). Well, the second question was answered pretty quickly with a lucky sevens percentage on FTL.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7942-division-4-round-1-red-dead-redemption-vs-ghost-trick

Not to be outdone, Red Dead Redemption put up an even higher percentage on Ghost Trick. This was a highly debated fourpack, with the winner being given a great chance of beating GTAV afterwards, so there was a lot riding on their round 2 showdown. They had been very close in the 2015 X-Stats, and they seemed to be very close still, so it was looking to be a great match.

See P4G's position would have been the perfect place for Skyward Sword. And if it wins at least it's an actual new game!

pjbasis posted...

See P4G's position would have been the perfect place for Skyward Sword. And if it wins at least it's an actual new game!

Imagine Skyward Sword winning this division over Xenoblade

Contest isn't better for it, no thanks

I can't imagine Skyward Sword winning that

If you think it's stronger than P4G, then it would have!

If not, then let's just keep a game people really love in the contest

an ineligible game, no thanks

pjbasis posted...

an ineligible game, no thanks

Thankfully League of Legends was kept out so no worries there

pjbasis posted...

See P4G's position would have been the perfect place for Skyward Sword.

P4G had three close matches in a row. That's an ideal contest entrant.

KamikazePotato posted...

P4G had three close matches in a row. That's an ideal contest entrant.

it did during gotd1 as well too

that Dead Rising/P4/TWEWY 4 pack was interesting

Hey now those are different games...!

But we'll get to that fourpack in due time

Yeah I would happily remove P4G. Wasn’t that before that version even came to platforms other than the Vita? It was clearly trading purely on the strength of P4, and you’d be forgiven for thinking that released in the early 2010’s (late 2008 in the Americas early 2009 in Europe). Would happily take Skyward Sword or Super Mario 3D World over it.

Also if it hadn’t been there we likely have gotten RDR vs GTAV which I was interested in.

Nah, RDR still loses to Xenoblade

Or they all lose to third tier Mario or Zelda which is a boring outcome for everyone

Yeah likely but GTAV and RDR would meet first before Xenoblade. We will never know if Skyward Sword or 3D World would win those, I don’t think it’s guaranteed, GTAV more than doubled 3D World with ALBW in the poll so it might win that. Also 3D World is one of the best Mario games! Just affected by its Wii U status.

Anyway I thought you opposed rallies.

Third tier in terms of strength

3D World probably does nothing though, NSMBWii did nothing in GotD1, after all

Also if you have to remind me an entrant rallied, I doubt it was that significant

It changed at least one result! Would have lost to RDR without.

LightningStrikes posted...

It changed at least one result! Would have lost to RDR without.

Do we know that? RDR had a very small lead in registered votes. It's not like it was a big advantage and then the rally overtook it. There's really no way to know how many votes were "rallied," but the games were basically even, so run the match on a different day and the outcome could flip, rally or not.

Both things can be true. Persona 4 Golden shouldn't have been in the contest, but it produced some good matches, so it was worth it. Just like Starcraft being in the 128 Bit Division in '04. Was any explanation ever provided for that?

The GTA V division was so entertaining.

Persona had some successful rallies yeah. It had a very fun run but I don't think it should have been eligible.

For the record, I intentionally used Persona 5 Royal (USA release March 2020) art on a P5 match pic later in the contest to see how consistent Allen would be on this issue. It got used, so the enhanced versions are apparently both the same game and a different game when convenient.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7943-division-4-round-1-xenoblade-chronicles-vs-splatoon-2

This was considered a wide open division with several possible winners. Believe it or not, Xenoblade was one of the least picked options. I don't think it was even the favorite to advance to the division finals. However, it put everyone on notice when it nearly quadrupled Splatoon 2, which people assumed was more popular than the games that GTAV, P4, and RDR had beaten. Maybe there was some SFF involved, but regardless, Xenoblade had to be taken seriously as a contender to win the division now.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7944-division-4-round-1-overwatch-vs-death-stranding

Most people viewed this match as a contest to determine which game the site hated more, as they were both pretty divisive. This felt pretty similar in a sense to the Aloy/D. Va match from Character Battle X. You just went with your gut because it was hard to make a logical argument you felt confident about. In the end, Overwatch won in unimpressive manner, and there was little doubt it was in for a hurting next round.

Leonhart4 posted...

This was considered a wide open division with several possible winners. Believe it or not, Xenoblade was one of the least picked options. I don't think it was even the favorite to advance to the division finals. However, it put everyone on notice when it nearly quadrupled Splatoon 2, which people assumed was more popular than the games that GTAV, P4, and RDR had beaten. Maybe there was some SFF involved, but regardless, Xenoblade had to be taken seriously as a contender to win the division now

I think most people understood Xenoblade as a possibility to win the division, but Three Houses was the heavy favorite to win their match, and subsequently the division afterwards.

In general Fire Emblem was heavily overestimated this contest.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

For the record, I intentionally used Persona 5 Royal (USA release March 2020) art on a P5 match pic later in the contest to see how consistent Allen would be on this issue. It got used, so the enhanced versions are apparently both the same game and a different game when convenient.

There was also a TTYD pic used for the N64 Paper Mario game in GotD1 so often Allen just didn’t realise lol. Or that one strange pic for Uncharted 2.

Allen purposely removed Ocarina of Time 3D and Majora's Mask 3D from the database. Might be targeted specifically because they were getting nominations or Allen just didn't want repeat winners. It shows that he was at least being selective about the bracket to some degree, becuase P4G shouldn't really be more eligible than those.

Oh now if you are not allowing those then P4G should absolutely not be allowed in also.

Yeah, the line is hard to draw for what makes it a new game, but with the precedent set by removing those, which we know was actively done since they could be nominated initially, P4G being in really doesn't make sense.

I've never considered Golden to be a new game. Now i've never played it but it looks to be the base game with DLC built in. I'm guessing this is exactly how P5 Royal is as well.

I have a theory that Fire Emblem Three Houses was hurt pretty badly by the 'you must vote in every match' rule, specifically because of the immensely hyped final DLC slot in Smash Ultimate (at the time), a set that had incredible third party characters.... turning out to be more Fire Emblem garbage.

And when you're in matches where most likely less than half the voters have even played what they're voting on, giving people a reason to anti-vote hurts.

Three Houses wound up looking a lot better after the fact. The other games were just strong.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7945-division-4-round-1-dragon-age-inquisition-vs-ori-and-the

This was truly a shocker. Only two people in the Oracle picked Ori to win, and I imagine there weren't many more Gurus who did. The Oracle average for Inquisition was 60% here. It doesn't quite have the same shock value as Magus/Knuckles because we had much higher expectations for Magus's strength, but it was that level of unexpected. An indie game (although Ori kinda toes the line in that regard) had taken down a Game of the Year runner-up (even if 2014 is a pretty weak year).

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7946-division-4-round-1-fire-emblem-three-houses-vs-south-park

This is about as close to a true doubling as we ever got! Three Houses was the 2019 GotY runner-up, and it was naturally assumed it would be stronger than Awakening, which had been equal to Xenoblade in 2015. This performance felt like a disappointment at the time compared to what other games in the division were doing, but South Park was probably pretty strong for a 15 seed.

Was I one of the two people?

I thought I picked against Dragon Age, but maybe I didn't do oracle

If only I could access the data

LightningStrikes posted...

Three Houses wound up looking a lot better after the fact. The other games were just strong.

Three Houses ended up looking around Awakening's strength when all was said and done, which is definitely lower than people were expecting.

I feel like I had Ori (in general I didn’t do the Oracle), but I can’t check!

KamikazePotato posted...

Three Houses ended up looking around Awakening's strength when all was said and done, which is definitely lower than people were expecting.

Yeah but that wound up looking good through Bloodborne though of course that famously rallied for no reason. Either way “slightly better than Awakening” sounds about for Three Houses. Xenoblade just wound up a lot stronger than expected.

I don't know man, i definitely thought 3H would be a clear step above Awakening, not just slightly stronger. Pretty sure that was the concensus opinion pre-contest.

Yeah, most people expected Three Houses to be clearly stronger, not just on the same general level.

I figured all the discourse around Fire Emblem over-exposure in Smash would about nullify the exposure difference between the FE Switch game and the FE 3DS game. Add in the fact that Xenoblade Definitive was around the corner in 2020 and it ended up resulting in me being one of the 18 or so Gurus with this division winner correct.

I was never picking anything other than P4 or FE and the only reason i even considered FE was because the board hyped it up.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7947-division-5-round-1-the-witcher-3-wild-hunt-vs-assassins

There were high expectations for Witcher 3. Just as Alucard had benefited from the Castlevania Netflix show, people anticipated a similar boost from the Witcher Netflix show. I think Skyrim was the overall Guru favorite to reach the finals from the bottom half, but Witcher 3 wasn't far behind. It showed right away that this confidence wasn't misplaced.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7948-division-5-round-1-mass-effect-3-vs-starcraft-ii

Mass Effect 3 was the #2 game in the 2015 X-Stats and Starcraft II was the sequel to the original Cinderella from the 2004 Games Contest, so we knew this was a matchup of two potential powerhouses. Mass Effect 3 emerged the winner, and now we were headed to a showdown of juggernauts in round two. Nobody knew who would prevail, but we couldn't wait to find out.

Fun fact: Mass Effect 3 has only ever lost to contest finalists.

Always the bridesmaid