Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1380

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7971-division-8-round-1-elder-scrolls-skyrim-vs-subnautica

Without FFVII in the contest, someone had to take up the mantle of "worst board vote," and that was Skyrim. It was at 70% early on before finishing in the mid-80s. This was a sign that there may have been some backlash against Skyrim because of Bethesda's penchant for continuing to re-release it instead of making new games.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7972-division-8-round-1-fate-grand-order-vs-journey

The general consensus was that whoever won this match would be the weakest game in the contest to win a match. Journey was a big favorite because we didn't expect this site would be positive toward a gacha. That instinct was correct as Journey nearly scored a doubling.

Oh wow I forgot the gacha made it in.

Leonhart4 posted...

we didn't expect this site would be positive toward a gacha.

Xenoblade 2 did okay.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7973-division-8-round-1-final-fantasy-xiv-vs-crypt-of-the

This was a semi-debated fourpack because it was probably the only one in this contest where you could make an argument for three potential winners. We were curious to see how FFXIV would do as the MMO rep carrying the FF name, and it did fine. Nothing spectacular but fine.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7974-division-8-round-1-uncharted-4-vs-mario-kart-8

Now if we want to talk about games having bad luck, let's talk about Uncharted 4. It would've beaten every other 13 seed in the contest except for the one it faced. It finished right there with Xenoblade 2 in the X-Stats, so it's not like it was weak. Uncharted has had some bad first round luck over the years, and this was just another example.

People were really after Uncharted 4 in this match, but I defended it a lot. It ended up basically where it was expected to, the whole pack was underestimated.

Mario Kart 8 was ludicrously underseeded.

best uncharted

what does Uncharted 4 vs 2 look like, doesn't seem like the kind of series to get a series poll

On GameFAQs? 2 wins easily, since it's older.

Not sure which is higher among the fanbase or the general public. I think UC2 does better on best game of all time rankings though, since it's more influential.

Yeah, I think Uncharted 2 wins. They're both well regarded though, so I wouldn't be surprised if it was a close match either way.

Oh I figured 2 would win, but maybe we got some data on what the margins would be

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/691087-playstation-4/78602937

Here's a random topic about it on the PS4 board from 5 years ago, with UC2 winning pretty handily

Small sample size (and there's always a chance it was stuffed) but yeah, not much data out there on this topic

I think pj wants x-stats

Well, that'll be difficult because Uncharted 2 was directly affected by the Undertale stuff in 2015 so we don't have any good data to work with there.

Actually, UC2 did face The Walking Dead in 2015 and got 66.88% and the GotD2 X-Stats project UC4 to get 68.54% on TWD. I'd wager Walking Dead was weaker in 2020 than 2015 though.

that's pretty dang close, maybe I'd pull the trigger on the hypothetical upset.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7975-division-8-round-1-pokemon-heartgold-vs-night-in-the-woods

Like Persona 4 Golden, some people weren't super thrilled about HG/SS being in the contest because it would basically function as a G/S/C proxy, and it was the only Pokemon game in the bracket, to boot. It did have more of an argument for its inclusion since it was a proper remake though. Regardless, Night in the Woods didn't stand a chance here.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7976-division-8-round-1-celeste-vs-rayman-legends

This was the closest wire-to-wire result in the contest, with the peak lead being a mere 333 votes. Celeste was actually a sizable favorite here with a 57.61% Oracle average, as well as only 37.78% of the site picking Rayman Legends to win. Neither game had a prayer next round, but journey before destination and all that.

Leonhart4 posted...

with the peak lead

There's a good mountain pun here.

That was a very good match, yeah.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7977-division-8-round-1-divinity-original-sin-ii-vs-hearthstone

Hearthstone finished dead last in the 2015 Games X-Stats and has the distinction of being the last entrant to get less than 10% in a match. As a result, everyone was picking its opponent by default even if many people (including me) hadn't even heard of it. Divinity did win easily, but Hearthstone did greatly improve its final ranking, finishing a beefy 106th in the X-Stats this time around.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7978-division-8-round-1-nier-automata-vs-bayonetta-2

Final match of round 1! There was some debate between who would face Skyrim in the division finals between Automata and HG/SS. There were some people arguing that Automata inflicted Butt SFF (no seriously) on Bayonetta 2, as it exceeded its Oracle average by a few percent.

Oh right, I forgot about factoid for the Celeste/Rayman match as it was one of the rare matches where the entrant that won in America lost the match overall!

Kinda surprising DOS2 isn't more popular here. It's from the BG3 devs, and it sold a ton. Guess GameFAQs just didn't discover it.

I know nothing about Baldur's Gate other than it exists, it's been in a couple contests, and I think it got a couple characters into NCAA Characters once

f*** Hearthstone.

I wonder how strong DOS2 would be in our post-BG3 world.

snake_5036 posted...

I wonder how strong DOS2 would be in our post-BG3 world.

About the same

Not sure BG3 would cause other games to boost like that. It's not Nintendo!

To be clear, Hearthstone isn’t just the worst game ever made with zero debate to be had. It is the worst product ever invented period.

No possibility exists to design or invent anything worse.

Nobody is unclear on your stance on the game

Or any game really since your PCAs are just rants at things you don't like and now I'm reading them all as I review these matches on the Wiki

That was also a decade ago when I was way angrier at life and there were several other people doing the “xyz happened at abc time” thing. These days I’d maybe be like that for Blizzard and nothing else.

I think like, cigarettes are probably a worse product than Hearthstone.

Cigarettes have at least given us some funny "don't smoke" jokes in Metal Gear Solid

I only know about Hearthstone because it was big on Twitch 10+ years ago.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7979-division-1-round-2-zelda-breath-of-the-wild-vs-halo-reach

It's rare for a contest entrant to get 80%+ victories in the first two rounds. Breath of the Wild almost became the third to get 85%+ in the first two rounds (behind Mega Man 2002 and Link 2004), but regardless, the message had been sent again. Nothing was getting anywhere close to this game without outside help.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7980-division-1-round-2-final-fantasy-xv-vs-hollow-knight

The Oracle average for FFXV was just under 55% here, so most people expected it to win but relatively close (although 7 people picked the upset). The match was 50/50 for the first two hours before FFXV started pulling away. However, Hollow Knight never let it get too far ahead, and it could never get the lead over 400 votes.

The timing of this match may have saved FFXV from an embarrassing loss as it took place a mere two days after Final Fantasy VII Remake's release. It's hard to say how much it helped, but with a margin this close, it sure couldn't have hurt.

I am retroactively shocked FFXV won that.

There's no way FFXV wins today.

..well...okay I suppose it could but it should not

I remember being disappointed Hollow Knight didn't win that. I had zero respect for FF15's strength, so if potentially the strongest indie game couldn't beat it, then it meant that indie games weren't quite as decent as their Round 1 performances indicated.

pjbasis posted...

I am retroactively shocked FFXV won that.

It’s the better game by a ton.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7981-division-1-round-2-monster-hunter-world-vs-sekiro-shadows

This was a split match before the contest, and while people still expected a close match, Monster Hunter had become the clear favorite by the time this match rolled around. It was neck and neck at the freeze, but then Monster Hunter jumped up a whopping 5% on the next update and that was all she wrote.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7982-division-1-round-2-bastion-vs-dragon-quest-xi

Bastion scored a nice upset in round 1, but it was clearly out of Dragon Quest XI's league here. Indie games started crashing back down to earth in round 2, and this was the first domino.

Good thing I didn't know Sekiro was the best game in the contest at the time

UltimaterializerX posted...

It’s the better game by a ton.

if only hollow knight let you equip 99 phoenix downs so you'd never have to think about how to play the game, just press X and move towards to the goal point, it'd be so much better!

serious question actually, did you platinum FFXV?

pjbasis posted...

if only hollow knight let you equip 99 phoenix downs so you'd never have to think about how to play the game, just press X and move towards to the goal point, it'd be so much better!

Now you get it

go play some visual novels buddy, gamers are talkin

Excuse you, I have an FFXV Platinum trophy

I'll have my lab analyze it and we'll see how platinum it truly is

Hollow Knight is a masterpiece.

FFXV has pretty graphics and not much else

Interestingly what KP said about Hollow Knight is what I thought about a different round 2 match with what did turn out to be the strongest indie game. But then it wound up looking a lot better retrospectively anyway!

pjbasis posted...

if only hollow knight let you equip 99 phoenix downs so you'd never have to think about how to play the game, just press X and move towards to the goal point, it'd be so much better!

serious question actually, did you platinum FFXV?

Got the platinum in both, yes.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7983-division-2-round-2-mass-effect-2-vs-fallout-4

There was some concern about Mass Effect 2 after its underwhelming first round performance. Nobody thought it would lose, but the Oracle average was only 58% here. ME2 put most doubts to rest by nearly doubling Fallout 4, which also was another indirect side effect of the second round crash of indie games. After all, part of the reason people thought Fallout 4 would do well here was because of its blowout of VVVVVV the round before.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7984-division-2-round-2-borderlands-2-vs-horizon-zero-dawn

This was the first Guru upset of consequence (in other words, not a one point first round match). In a rather chalky contest, any deviation from expectation was pretty important. Most of us saw the writing on the wall after round 1 because Horizon was a pretty sizable favorite in the Oracle, at least in terms of total pickers. Horizon had validated its 2017 GotY showing where it had beaten Automata and put up a good showing against Persona 5 in the PS4 poll. In fact, both of these matches were reminders of how strong of a year 2017 was in general since RE7 was also a game from that year. If we ever get Best Year in Gaming 2, watch out...!

I wonder how well Mass Effect 2 would do vs pre-rally Undertale given how decent 3 was doing.

2017 was a crazy good year for games. Felt like a turning point for eastern games specifically after years of them falling behind the curve.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I wonder how well Mass Effect 2 would do vs pre-rally Undertale given how decent 3 was doing.

Considering ME3 had 65% on Undertale before the rally kicked in, I'd say ME2 probably gets close to a tripling. The 2020 X-Stats mostly bear that out, too.