Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1381

I would like to see if Dr. Robotnik got a Jim Carrey boost.

swirIdude posted...

I would like to see if Dr. Robotnik got a Jim Carrey boost.

Theoretically a movie match picture would be fair game

Leonhart4 posted...

Well, this is why it's hard to quantify how much bracket voting actually matters. At what point does it drop off? When people perceive their bracket is dead or when they don't have the right winner in the match?

Yeah, I think it's fair to say that maybe a more casual contest participant might still feel like they have a shot at doing decent in the Villains contest at this point in the contest, since Sephiroth is still in contention and odds are they have him or one of the two Nintendo villains winning. So bracket voting could absolutely still be playing a factor here, even if most casual bracketmakers probably don't have the all important Ruin division winner correct.

Leonhart4 posted...

Well, this is why it's hard to quantify how much bracket voting actually matters. At what point does it drop off? When people perceive their bracket is dead or when they don't have the right winner in the match?

That's true but we're taking about Robotnik doing worse than Ansem the previous round and finishing below CATS. So I'm thinking overlap was the bigger factor at least. Because bracket votes should not increase.

Well, that's when you can take other factors into consideration like Bacondorf or perhaps some weird overlap between Nintendo and Sega

Robotnik underperforming seems likely but any adjustment also makes Sin look better and there's probably only so good Sin is likely to be.

Sin vs. Lavos, who ya got?

Oh yeah, Bacondorf was there the round before, I forgot. Still, the bracket voting shouldn't go up that round.

AxemRedRanger posted...

Robotnik underperforming seems likely but any adjustment also makes Sin look better and there's probably only so good Sin is likely to be.

Sin vs. Lavos, who ya got?

In 2005, I think this match is a coinflip. I like Lavos's chances in a direct match because of the intangibles (CT > FFX in a direct match, Lavos likely being more recognizable in any given match pic, higher seed/top option), but it is definitely possible Sin ranks above Lavos in the xstats if Robotnik runs into Seph instead of Ganon or Bowser.

AxemRedRanger posted...

Robotnik underperforming seems likely but any adjustment also makes Sin look better and there's probably only so good Sin is likely to be.

I'm fine with 2004 Sin being pretty decent. FFX was a recent game back then, and Sin is memorable.

KamikazePotato posted...

FFX was a recent game back then

This is true but hard to wrap my head around in 2025.

Chrono Trigger was only ten years old then...!

1994 in 2004 felt like such a long time ago. But 2015 feels like it was yesterday compared to 2025.

The time gap between FFX and today is over four times bigger than the time gap between CT and FFX. That just feels wrong.

shane15 posted...

1994 in 2004 felt like such a long time ago. But 2015 feels like it was yesterday compared to 2025.

Yes. There were a lot more years between the first two years two mentioned.

Chrono Trigger was as old in 2005 as Witcher 3 and Bloodborne are now

No because ctesjbuvf posted...

There were a lot more years between the first two years two mentioned.

Leonhart4 posted...

Chrono Trigger was as old in 2005 as Witcher 3 and Bloodborne are now

🤢🤮🤮🤮

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2017-tournament-semifinal-bowser-vs-sephiroth

Bracket voting is hard to quantify, and so is bandwagoning, the opposite end of the spectrum. Sephiroth was expected to hit high 60s on Bowser based on previous contests but instead he couldn't even hit 60% here. Why weren't people bracket voting here? Because voting against FFVII is more fun? Or people feel comfortable voting against their bracket because they know FFVII Always Wins anyway? Who knows!

But Bowser held on against Sephiroth longer than we expected. I have vivid memories of the beginning of this match, so I searched through the Stats Topics archives to find a particular moment. The match was tied 500-500 at exactly 1000 votes, and there was a string of posts of several of us happening upon this all at once.

From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:09:21 AM | Message Detail
Bowser 50% 500
Sephiroth 50% 500
TOTAL VOTES 1000

Hot damn!

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“I am the Queen of Blades, and my stare alone would reduce you to ashes. You and your ilk cease to amuse me. Prepare yourself for oblivion’s embrace.” Kerrigan
From: jonthomson | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:09:22 AM | Message Detail
Bowser 50% 500
Sephiroth 50% 500
TOTAL VOTES 1000

XD
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Jon Thomson - 34/44, today: Ganondorf, tomorrow: Sephiroth
Nominate Ridley for Summer Contest 2005
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:09:23 AM | Message Detail
Bowser 50% 500
Sephiroth 50% 500
TOTAL VOTES 1000

Niiice.

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"LucidFaia" Score: 47, Rank: 23 (T1), Pick: Sephiroth
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:09:25 AM | Message Detail
Bowser 50% 500
Sephiroth 50% 500
TOTAL VOTES 1000

Nice even sample.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:09:27 AM | Message Detail
Tournament Semifinal: Bowser vs. Sephiroth
Bowser 50% 500
Sephiroth 50% 500
TOTAL VOTES 1000

BEST 1000 VOTES EVER.
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"The PS3 isn't designed to lean towards games. It's not a computer for children."- Ken Kutaragi
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:09:31 AM | Message Detail
500 apiece after 1000 votes. Awesome.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:09:31 AM | Message Detail
Bowser 50% 500
Sephiroth 50% 500
TOTAL VOTES 1000

Ha! Take that, Sephiroth!!!
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

Everyone knew Bowser had no chance of holding on, but it was still super exciting anyway. It was a rare sign of vulnerability from Clinkeroth, fleeting though it was.

Yeah, I think this was the first time we saw an over-performance in the later rounds because the winner was in no real threat to drop the match. We saw it a lot in the SBAllen era when we had a lot more contest knowledge to draw from, and casuals and experts alike knew who the top dogs were. Of course, this was the first contest where there was one heavy favorite in Sephiroth and no one was close to him at all.

what does Bowser vs Sephiroth look like in 2018

Unimpressive Sephiroth win probably.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7375-loser-bracket-round-2-crono-vs-bowser

Dunno how much stronger or weaker than Crono you think Sephiroth was but probably not too far off from that. Cloud/Bowser was projected to be a 62/38 match in 2018, for what it's worth.

Sephiroth and Bowser are near equals in the 2018 X-Stats but it's hard to reconcile all the results there to make them fit.

At least Bowser has probably one of the most reliable values in the 2018 xstats. He lost to Crono both times, so the all the uncertainty is on whatever happened to Sephiroth.

And both of Crono's losses were to Cloud, so yeah, they're probably two of the more reliable characters from the Tournament of Champions.

My gut pick would be Bowser > Sephiroth today unless I heard a convincing argument otherwise.

Well, 2018 was pre-Smash and pre-Remake for Sephiroth for whatever that's worth.

I'd argue Remake shouldn't actually help Sephiroth because I don't think the games have handled him particularly well, but who knows if that's the majority opinion!

I'm sure Bowser has been in quite a few games since then too. Plus the SMB movie, if that helps him.

Well, Bowser's in a situation where I don't think more exposure necessarily helps him. What new audience is learning about him, or what new aspect of his character is a new game bringing out in him?

The Mario movie might help, I guess.

Bowser kinda needs his own spin-off game where he is the main protagonist (and for it to be a beloved title in order to boost), I think.

Maybe can see the movie helping quite a bit, the Jack Black song was huge

You're also overlooking TDF (The Daddy Factor). We're all old farts and I'd guess a decent chunk are now fathers with children. We no longer care for the edgy protagonists and antagonists of our youth. Kinda, sorta not joking about this, based on how our female contestants did much better in more recent contests.

So you're saying Bowser being a father of the worst son in the world makes him more relatable to us?

Super Mario RPG got a remake, and that's peak Bowser, so at least the stuff that's come out since 2018 has to be kind to him.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2018-tournament-semifinal-diablo-vs-ganondorf



The only really notable thing about this match is the picture. Seriously, what the heck is that? Regardless, Ganondorf made short work of Diablo. The only question left to answer was whether he would do better or worse than Bowser against Sephiroth.

It's Diablo I...Diablo vs. Spaceworld 2000 Tech demo Ganondorf (which later became the basis for Ganon's Melee model).

I didn’t know that’s where Ganon’s pic came from. Knew OG Diablo immediately.

Individually those renders are fine, but put them together in a cramped close-up and it looks really funny.

LeonhartFour posted...

So you're saying Bowser being a father of the worst son in the world makes him more relatable to us?

But he's a good father! Also, Bowser Jr. works with Mario to help his dad in Bowser's Fury.

TTYD also got a remake since and now that is peak Bowser. Though I don't neither RPG helps on this site.

FFVIIR probably helps in the sense that it kept the brand relevant, though I don't think Seph is the one it will have boosted the most. Him being in Smash was a big deal. Don't know if it still matters.

Bowser needs a sequel to Bowser's Inside Story, which is never going to happen

Bowser probably needs that part in Odyssey to be like a full stretched out game

Bowser being playable in the next big mainline Mario could probably do something.

I just don't think it's going to happen in a mainline Mario game, at least not to a significant degree. We've only seen it in the RPGs thus far.

Oh I don't think so either. I was just trying to think of something that could actually boost him.

I would love to have a full fledged Super Bowser World-esque spinoff where you play as Bowser in a platformer for the whole game, but I don't know if Nintendo would actually make that.

KamikazePotato posted...

Individually those renders are fine, but put them together in a cramped close-up and it looks really funny.

That Ganondorf looks so weird to me. I think it's the smile.

It's most definitely the smile.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2019-tournament-final-sephiroth-vs-ganondorf

The final match! It basically went just like the Sephiroth/Bowser match, except Ganondorf didn't bleed quite as badly. Now CJayC had an excuse to retire Clinkeroth for the upcoming Summer Contest, which we'll get to next month!

20 years since the last non-rallied, non-LAW winner.

does '1998' also fall under LAW