Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1382

Big_Bob posted...

Umineko won the poll, AND the contest. A witch made it win, don't you remember?

Repeat it in red if you can.

Literally a POTD with a blank option

Just like last time:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4457-how-much-time-do-you-spend-outside-each-day

The joke vote has really fallen off since then.

It shows that GameFAQs has grown up.

But, not me. I voted for

How much would Link get against ?

Let's do some previews for the lead-up to the GOTD1 retrospective! One thing I should mention ahead of time that probably also contributes to how beloved this contest is was that this was the debut of the Battle Challenge. This was a second contest where you picked each match every day as the contest went on, so you could alter your picks if you wanted. Each consecutive pick correct would net you more points, and you could bank points whenever you chose to avoid getting something wrong because missing a match caused you to lose all points you hadn't banked. It was a really cool new feature for contests that kept you invested even after your main bracket had bitten the dust.

Division 1

This was interesting because most contests led off with Nintendo, but this first division was conspicuous for its lack of Nintendo games (aside from Mario Sunshine). Let's look at the Guru breakdown:

Round 1

Fallout 3 - 100%

Rock Band - 86.67%
Deus Ex - 13.33%

Arkham Asylum - 98.43%

Team Fortress 2 - 92.94%
Fable - 7.06%

Uncharted 2 - 96.47%

Sonic Adventure 2 - 72.55%
Street Fighter IV - 27.45%

Super Mario Sunshine - 64.71%
Halo 3 - 35.29%

Halo - 93.71%

The chaos started early with three upsets in the very first division, and we nearly had a fourth with Team Fortress 2 narrowly beating Fable. I think this got the contest off on the right foot because we were getting close matches and unexpected results right away.

Round 2

Fallout 3 - 98.41%

Arkham Asylum - 78.43%
Team Fortress 2 - 20.39%

Uncharted 2 - 70.20%
Sonic Adventure 2 - 17.25%

Mario Sunshine - 41.96%
Halo 1 - 41.96%
Halo 3 - 14.12%

It's rare to have a tie in total picks in round 2, but that's what we got with Mario Sunshine and Halo 1...which is a match that didn't even happen lawl

Round 3

Fallout 3 - 94.90%

Uncharted 2 - 36.47%
Mario Sunshine - 26.27%
Halo - 24.31%

We had five different games with at least ten Guru picks in a round three matches, which was pretty cool.

Round 4

Fallout 3 - 85.88%

But for all the chaos, there was little doubt that Fallout 3 was the class of this division. Nobody else had double digit picks to win the division.

Does SMS beat Halo today?

That's probably the biggest lingering question in this division if we ran it now. I think it beats Halo 3 at the very least, but a match with Halo 1 is probably close.

TeamRocketElite posted...

Does SMS beat Halo today?

I don't think it would. Halo 1 and 3 are two of the only "gamer bro" games this site actually has some respect for, plus I think bracket voting counts for a lot in rematches. People will look that up, pick Halo 3 again, and it might just be 53-47 a second time.

IMO not enough has changed about our voterbase or here in general since 2015, when Halo 3 had a rather abjectly awful showing. I would pick Halo 1 over Mario Sunshine in a GotD setting and possibly in a regular contest match, though.

Is Halo 2 stronger than 3

Shot in the dark, I'd pick 3 over 2 in a 1v1. It at least has a few wins to its name and I think it's aged more gracefully than 2.

Wow some love for Skies of Arcadia in the POTD

We really need a port or remake so 70% of the site can play this game

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7720-which-gamecube-game-or-games-would-you-most-like-to-see

People are chomping at the bit to play Skies again. Sega is leaving money on the table by focusing on second-string properties like Sonic, Persona, and Yakuza.

Yeah, a 30% playrate for Skies of Arcadia is nothing to sneeze at. A remake or even a remaster with a faster battle system and adjusted encounter/experience rate would be tremendous.

I would 100% buy a Skies of Arcadia remake with voice acting, modern-day game mechanics, etc.

probably worth noting that lots of these options have HD ports on Switch 1 already

pjbasis posted...

probably worth noting that lots of these options have HD ports on Switch 1 already

Which ones had HD ports in 2019?

ah see leon mentions a potd with skies of arcadia and then that poll gets posted, it's not my fault

The fact that both Vyse and Skies of Arcadia have both won matches in the contests is at least very comforting.

Whoops, been kinda slacking on this! Let's do a Division 2 preview!

Round 1

Metroid Prime - 100%

Devil May Cry 3 - 98.43%

Mega Man 9 - 69.80%
Demon's Souls - 30.20%

Okami - 98.43%

Tales of Symphonia - 70.98%
Resident Evil 5 - 29.02%

God of War - 98.04%

Grand Theft Auto III - 92.16%

Half-Life 2 - 99.61%

I wonder if MM9/Demon's Souls would flip now. I know the series didn't take off until Dark Souls, but you'd figure the original would get some residual boost from it now. I still think Symphonia beats RE5.

Round 2

Metroid Prime - 98.04%

Okami - 69.41%
Mega Man 9 - 25.88%

God of War - 79.61%
Tales of Symphonia - 14.51%

Half-Life 2 - 94.12%

Round 3

Metroid Prime - 97.65%

Half-Life 2 - 85.88%

Round 4

Half-Life 2 - 51.76%
Metroid Prime - 44.71%

Everyone knew this division was building toward a Prime/Half-Life 2 showdown, and it delivered on the hype. It's kinda wild that it went from 50/50 to 58/42 just five years later. I wonder how much Prime wins by now, especially with MP4 on the horizon.

RE5 ended up being the ultimate loser and like top 30 in the overall x-stats.

Division 3 preview!

Round 1

Melee - 100%

Warcraft 3 - 73.33%
Morrowind - 26.67%

Perfect Dark - 96.47%

Call of Duty 4 - 97.35%

Pokemon D/P - 99.61%

Path of Radiance - 60.39%
WWF No Mercy - 39.61%

Disgaea - 79.22%
Valkyria Chronicles - 20.78%

Brawl - 100%

In retrospect, it's kind of wild that Path of Radiance/No Mercy was a 60/40 match among the Gurus (no judgment as I was one of the No Mercy pickers, even if it was mostly out of favoritism). I'm also kinda surprised Disgaea was such a heavy favorite over Valkyria Chronicles, but I guess it mostly got top option bias there.

Round 2

Melee - 99.61%

Call of Duty 4 - 91.37%

Pokemon D/P - 99.61%

Brawl - 100%

Round 3

Melee - 99.61%

Brawl - 98.04%

Round 4

Brawl - 53.73%
Melee - 45.88%
Call of Duty 4 - 0.39%

There was one person holding out hope that it wouldn't be Brawl or Melee winning the division...! But yeah, this division was super chalk in rounds 2 and 3, and then there was the most anticipated match of the entire contest (which was wild to say considering it was only a division final). We'll definitely have plenty to say about Melee vs. Brawl when the time comes.

Allen somehow had Melee vs. DP in the division final.

heck yeah Ace Attorney poll

Feels like quite an achievement that less than 10% of the site hasn't at least heard of it

About 30% of the site have at least played multiple AA games. Not too shabby.

Now for a Division 4 preview!

Round 1

Mario Galaxy - 100%

Pokemon R/S/E - 69.41%
Grand Theft Auto IV - 30.59%

Dragon Age - 94.12%

Twilight Princess - 100%

BioShock - 99.22%

Kingdom Hearts II - 98.43%

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 - 87.84%
Dissidia - 13.16%

Kingdom Hearts - 100%

I wonder how R/S/E vs. GTA4 goes now. I feel like GTA4 has largely been forgotten. Also is there a chance Dissidia could beat MW2 now?

Round 2

Mario Galaxy - 94.90%

Twilight Princess - 99.61%

Kingdom Hearts II - 90.59%

Kingdom Hearts - 91.37%

Round 3

Twilight Princess - 85.10%
Mario Galaxy - 14.90%

Kingdom Hearts - 49.80%
Kingdom Hearts II - 41.96%

Round 4

Twilight Princess - 80.00%
Mario Galaxy - 13.33%
Kingdom Hearts II - 4.31%
Kingdom Hearts - 2.35%

The one heavily debated match in this division was KH1 vs. KH2. Fortunately, the correct choice prevailed...!

No way GTA4 has any staying power on this site (or anywhere else).

Pokemon RSE's reputation has also been rising over the years. It's not a black sheep like it was in 2010.

LeonhartFour posted...

The one heavily debated match in this division was KH1 vs. KH2. Fortunately, the correct choice prevailed...!

sad because that was it's chance when KH2 was still bad. Now that KH2 is permanently Final Mix I would never think it wasn't the strongest game in the series.

OrangeCrush980 posted...

Pokemon RSE's reputation has also been rising over the years. It's not a black sheep like it was in 2010.

I mean at this point it's probably the 3rd strongest. Black/White might be worth something but after that?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4066-which-number-one-seed-do-you-think-has-the-best-shot-at

This POTD should've had it right, darn it

I assume FFX had to be the overall favorite to win the contest anyway, with Smash always seemingly being sold a little short by casual bracketmakers, and with two of them in the running as options.

'FF always wins' being a mantra when it's never true should have been the warning sign

Gotta fly through these last four divisions!

Division 5

Round 1

Final Fantasy X - 100%

Borderlands - 81.18%
Tales of Vesperia - 18.82%

Golden Sun - 88.63%

San Andreas - 99.61%

Knights of the Old Republic - 86.27%

Fire Emblem - 90.98%

Civilization IV - 56.86%
Persona 3 - 43.14%

Final Fantasy IX - 99.61%

Only one real toss-up in Round 1, and the underdog won!

Round 2

Final Fantasy X - 100%

San Andreas - 69.02%
Golden Sun - 29.80%

Knights of the Old Republic - 84.31%
Devil May Cry - 13.33%

Final Fantasy IX - 98.64%

Round 3

Final Fantasy X - 99.61%

Final Fantasy IX - 87.45%
Knights of the Old Republic - 9.02%

Round 4

Final Fantasy X - 99.61%

FFX was nearly unanimous to win the division, with one lone San Andreas picker as the outlier. Speaking of which, Golden Sun > SA was one of the biggest post-round 1 upsets in terms of how many brackets picked the losing entrant.

I hope we get GotD 2020s, and that GTA6 goes against a JRPG in round 2 or 3.

Division 6

Round 1

Resident Evil 4 - 100%

Vice City - 94.90%

Dead Rising - 69.41%
The World Ends With You - 30.59%

Persona 4 - 94.51%

Portal - 99.22%

Final Fantasy XII - 73.33%
Crisis Core - 26.67%

Skies of Arcadia - 78.82%
Baldur's Gate II - 21.18%

Mass Effect - 100%

I feel like TWEWY beats Dead Rising now. I wonder how FFXII/Crisis Core goes now, or if Baldur's Gate II would get enough residual overflow from BG3 to beat Skies of Arcadia.

Round 2

Resident Evil 4 - 99.61%

Persona 4 - 46.61%
Dead Rising - 41.57%
The World Ends With You - 9.80%

Portal - 65.49%
Final Fantasy XII - 26.27%
Crisis Core - 8.24%

Mass Effect - 98.04%

Round 3

Resident Evil 4 - 99.61%

Portal - 56.08%
Final Fantasy XII - 21.96%
Mass Effect - 14.90%

Round 4

Resident Evil 4 - 95.69%

Only eleven people had a non-RE4 winner here. I don't think anything else changes here beyond Persona 4 winning by more than it did back then.

Just realizing Demon's Souls was eligible for GotD1.

Wonder how far that would have gone (with the popularity it has today).

Division 7

Round 1

Metal Gear Solid 3 - 100%

New Super Mario Bros. Wii - 86.27%
Marvel vs. Capcom 2 - 13.73%

Paper Mario - 97.65%

World of Warcraft - 93.33%

Metal Gear Solid 4 - 100%

Diablo II - 99.61%

Metal Gear Solid 2 - 98.43%

Shadow of the Colossus - 81.96%

One big upset in the first round here. It's also kinda funny looking at how many people picked SotC to lose to The Sims after the run it eventually had (although I was also disappointed that it ruined the MGS gauntlet).

Round 2

Metal Gear Solid 3 - 98.82%

Paper Mario - 54.90%
World of Warcraft - 44.71%

Metal Gear Solid 4 - 96.47%

Metal Gear Solid 2 - 92.55%

Round 3

Metal Gear Solid 3 - 95.69%

Metal Gear Solid 4 - 93.73%

Round 4

Metal Gear Solid 4 - 69.02%
Metal Gear Solid 3 - 28.63%

This was our second division where the overall favorite didn't end up winning, and nobody had SotC even making it to round 4 (although 17 people did pick it to upset MGS2). Looking back, I'm kinda surprised Paper Mario/WoW was essentially a toss-up.

MGS2 wins over 4 today right

4 has been trapped on the ps3 and people are appreciating 2's themes of ai and digital content/censorship more and more these days

MGS2 potentially wins over 4 in 2010, let alone today.

Yeah, I'd say 2 probably wins that one now, but I think it'd still be fairly close (barring any weird SFF).

KamikazePotato posted...

MGS2 potentially wins over 4 in 2010, let alone today.

Eh, I don't think it wins back then. SotC muddles up those matches too much to take the relation between all the MGS games at face value.

Division 8

Round 1

Majora's Mask - 100%

Chrono Cross - 77.65%
Dragon Quest VIII - 22.35%

Mario Kart Wii - 83.14%

Pokemon G/S/C - 99.61%

Wind Waker - 98.43%

Assassin's Creed II - 99.22%

Paper Mario TTYD - 81.18%

Oblivion - 96.08%

Chalk for round 1, which was rare for this contest!

Round 2

Majora's Mask - 100%

Pokemon G/S/C - 95.69%

Wind Waker - 97.65%

Oblivion - 80%
Paper Mario TTYD - 14.35%

Round 3

Pokemon G/S/C - 69.80%
Majora's Mask - 29.80%

Wind Waker - 91.37%

Round 4

Pokemon G/S/C - 66.67%
Majora's Mask - 24.71%
Wind Waker - 8.63%

And our third division where the overall favorite didn't win, but Majora winning was really the only upset in the entire division.

Quarterfinals

Fallout 3 - 57.25%
Metroid Prime - 18.43%
Half-Life 2 - 17.65%

Brawl - 50.98%
Melee - 45.10%

Final Fantasy X - 97.25%

Pokemon G/S/C - 43.53%
Metal Gear Solid 4 - 29.41%
Majora's Mask - 13.33%
Metal Gear Solid 3 - 10.98%

Semifinals

Brawl - 50.98%
Melee - 44.31%

Final Fantasy X - 86.67%
Majora's Mask - 2.75%

Finals

Brawl - 34.12%
Final Fantasy X - 30.98%
Melee - 29.02%
Majora's Mask - 1.18%

A whopping 3 people had Majora's Mask winning it all, but it was also the fourth most popular winner as no other game had more than two picks...!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4069-north-division-round-1-fallout-3-vs-infamous

And it begins! Not much to say about this one. Fallout 3 was expected to dominate and it did.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4070-north-division-round-1-rock-band-2-vs-deus-ex

The curse of the second match continued here. The Oracle average projected a 60/40 win for Rock Band, and it was clear early Deus Ex was going to win. Of course, the Deus Ex fanbase wasn't happy with merely winning. If you were here at the time, you almost certainly remember that infamous topic, and I think it'd be an appropriate 500th post.

Deus Ex isn't winning by enough!