Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1382

The power of hype and the long wait finally ending

Also, $19.99. If you have any interest, that’s an “I’ll just buy it price”

Safer_777 posted...

Pirates saying just buy it and don't pirate it?

Some pirates say that about every well-liked game. It's still been torrented by tons of people.

Safer_777 posted...

I don't understand this. Hollow Knight Silksong. The first game was good I get it. But seriously? Over 15 million sales? And the sequel that came out. Crushing Xbox, PS and Steam stores? For real? Over 550.000 players on Steam? Pirates saying just buy it and don't pirate it?
And don't tell me well the games are good. There are tons of good games. But they don't do that. Especially indie ones.
I just don't get it...

Worth every second of its hype.

I mean I may try it. It is only 20 Euros anyways.

Proving my point about Squall/Vincent being an overlooked match

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2120-chaos-division-final-sonic-the-hedgehog-vs-tifa-lockheart

After the Luigi match, any notion that Tifa could win had gone out the window. Now it was all about Sonic proving he was ready for his showdown with Mega Man. Tifa actually hung tight for the first few hours. Sonic didn't break 53% until four and a half hours in, and then he used the day vote to pull away for a comfortable victory.

I always thought the face of Indie games was Shovel Knight. I guess it is Hollow Knight now. Well both are knights.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2121-20xx-division-final-mega-man-vs-yoshi

It was hard to draw any conclusions from this match because it was a clear overpeformance by Mega Man. Whether it was simply SFF, the pic advantage (which featured Mega Man shooting a giant charged shot at Yoshi), or some combo of the two, we knew Mega Man wasn't naturally this much stronger than Yoshi. At the very least, there was no reason for most people to doubt that he still wasn't going to handle business against Sonic next round.

I'm old enough to remember Braid being the face of indie games.

Big_Bob posted...

I'm old enough to remember Braid being the face of indie games.

I remember that! It was the first indie game to get big recognition. Then it was the Binding of Isaac I believe, then Shovel Knight, now Hollow Knight.

Safer_777 posted...

I remember that! It was the first indie game to get big recognition. Then it was the Binding of Isaac I believe, then Shovel Knight, now Hollow Knight.

How could you forget the official Best Game Ever(tm), Undertale?

KamikazePotato posted...

How could you forget the official Best Game Ever(tm), Undertale?

Not even Game of the Year.

Or Game of the Decade (2)

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2122-tournament-quarterfinal-mario-vs-samus-aran

The birth (or at least the popularization) of "LOL X-Stats." This is probably my least favorite match to discuss of all-time. We all know the story behind this one, so let's move on.

LOL X-Stats

It’s freaking Mario!

KamikazePotato posted...

How could you forget the official Best Game Ever(tm), Undertale?

It was excellent but never the face of indies or something like that.

Leonhart4 posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2122-tournament-quarterfinal-mario-vs-samus-aran

The birth (or at least the popularization) of "LOL X-Stats." This is probably my least favorite match to discuss of all-time. We all know the story behind this one, so let's move on.

Yeah I am truly regretful about it and I wish I could take all that back. One of my dumbest days ever, and that’s saying a lot.

The only remotely legitimate defense I have is I found Amazing Telephone funny. I saw him say it first and wanted people to think I was funny like he was. Absolutely did not do it the right way tho.

I know there was a lot of drama around it at the time but really it's just SFF right?

Does seem oddly lopsided though, Samus wouldn't crumble like this today to Mario right?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7383-loser-bracket-round-4-mario-vs-samus

Who knows! Samus might even win these days if Prime 4 delivers!

There were arguments about whether this was SFF, rSFF, or if the hierarchy would ensure Mario won, no matter what (and therefore you were a big dummy and X-Stats tool if you thought Samus had any shot)

Samus would have won the rematch if I didn’t rally a few votes at the end.

Honestly, “Samus is indirectly stronger” was probably the right take the entire time.

This match might not have been the biggest upset I've ever called correctly, and in fact wasn't even an upset amongst the overall brackets, but it remains the prediction I'm most proud of. I was a Mario > Samus supporter not just from the day the contest started, but from the day the 2004 X-Stats came out and people started discussing its possibility. Not all of my theories about contest dynamics ended up coming true, but this was the one I was most insistent on, and it ended up paying off.

Samus was indirectly stronger in 2k4, but Mario was indirectly stronger in 2k5. 2005 Mario was one of his strongest iterations. He took the Nintendo Boost and ran with it.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2123-tournament-quarterfinal-solid-snake-vs-bowser

In the first three Character Battles, the sprite round had been the third round. For whatever the reason, CJayC changed it to the fourth round for this contest. As such, Snake got his infamous sprite against Bowser, someone considered a threat by some to beat him and break the Noble Nine. For the first several hours, it seemed like there was no cause for concern, as Snake had nearly 56% and built up a 1000 vote lead.

As we got closer to the morning vote, Snake's percentage quickly began to tank, but he was still slowly increasing his lead. He peaked at a 2161 vote lead right before the halfway point of the match. Then Bowser went to work. He got the lead under 1000 votes in five hours, so he was on pace to complete the comeback. However, the closest he could get was 750 votes, and Snake used the second night vote to put the match out of reach, winning by nearly 1200 votes in the end.

For the second year in a row, Snake had suffered a close call in the sprite round. This would be the last year that it would be a concern though, thanks to a couple of game announcements that would take place between this contest and the next.

KamikazePotato posted...

Samus was indirectly stronger in 2k4, but Mario was indirectly stronger in 2k5. 2005 Mario was one of his strongest iterations. He took the Nintendo Boost and ran with it.

Yeah, Mario's strength is in line with general Nintendo opinion more than anyone.

LeonhartFour posted...

However, the closest he could get was 750 votes, and Snake used the second night vote to put the match out of reach, winning by nearly 1200 votes in the end.

So today it would be like 75 votes to nearly winning by 120

I had Bowser > Snake in 2005, and one of the reasons I thought it might be possible is due to potential sprites being used in later rounds. Which is funny because the sprite round took place a round later than usual.

It makes sense though, because we had a lot of characters in Round 3 that year that didn't exist until the era of 3D gaming, whereas most of them were weeded out by Round 4.

If Bowser actually won this would he be considered a fraud later on

pjbasis posted...

If Bowser actually won this would he be considered a fraud later on

Vincent isn't considered a fraud now despite his dropoff since then so probably not. It'd just be considered the perfect storm, most likely.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2124-tournament-quarterfinal-crono-vs-vincent-valentine

Speaking of Vincent, this was the clear end of the line for him, but he overperformed on Crono by a noticeable amount, to the point that many people (notably HaRRicH) insisted this was an abberation and called the entire Devil Division into question as a result. In particular, this match falling on the Japanese release date of Advent Children was cited as the main reason.

Turns out the only real overperformance in the division was Knuckles against Squall. This match was actually a sign that Crono had weakened a little, and we would see that weakness produce important results over the next two Character Battles.

Leonhart4 posted...

Vincent isn't considered a fraud now despite his dropoff since then so probably not. It'd just be considered the perfect storm, most likely.

Agreed, if only because Bowser's come-down ended up happening in 2007 where he lost two times to Ryu in four ways after beating him handily in 2005. Even if he beats Snake here, it would be hard to argue him being a fraud since he would have beaten the character previously that exposed him.

We knew by then how brutal the sprite round could be for some characters. I think that a lot of people wouldn't have even counted it as the Noble Nine being broken because everyone knows that Snake > Bowser under normal circumstances.

We wouldn't even have seen some cool bandwagon effects because Bowser runs into who is easily the worst semi-final opponent he could have if he wins.

RIP PotD

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2125-tournament-quarterfinal-sonic-the-hedgehog-vs-mega-man

Sonic > Mega Man was my late contest upset special. He had looked good up to this point, but Mega Man was still the clear favorite by the time the match rolled around. Mega Man took an early lead as expected, but Sonic used the European vote and morning vote to take the lead. Unfortunately, he wasn't able to hold it, and Mega Man built up a nearly 1100 vote lead.

Then Sonic used the ASV to slice through the lead and got it down to around 250 votes. However, he was unable to complete the comeback, and Mega Man used the second night vote to pull away and win by about 750 votes.

I have vivid memories of this match because it was agonizing watching Sonic get so close just to fall short. I was also watching Advent Children and pausing every now and then to check on the match.

Now after four Character Battles, neither Sonic nor Snake had beaten another Noble Niner. Some people started to question if they should even still be included at this point if they never beat another member of the group.

I was so happy that I got to see my two favourite characters face off, and I think ot was the most close match that year. I even made two different brackets, my mainhad Sonic win it all and my alt had Mega Man.

Leonhart4 posted...

Now after four Character Battles, neither Sonic nor Snake had beaten another Noble Niner. Some people started to question if they should even still be included at this point if they never beat another member of the group.

Sonic was lucky he caught Crono in an off year in 2k6 because that's still his only win against a Noble Niner.

He could probably beat Crono again now! Maybe Mega Man, too.

I mean last time Crono was a taller order than Mega Man.

Just barely but fair enough

It's kind of unfortunate that we stopped having contests right around when Sonic might no longer be the weakest member anymore

I don’t think we deserve another character battle if Pikachu can beat Mega Man. I doubt it would even be close if we had one today.

Not sure why either would have changed much given the lack of new users. Besides, Pikachu needed the registered user bonus to pull it off and then lost the rematch.

I'd take Crono over Mega Man again too, but Sonic might be able to beat both now yes.

The weakest Noble Nine member in 2018 was Sephiroth and I'm not sure that's changed.

Seph does have more reason to get stronger than most of the N9 thanks to Smash and Remakes, at least.

It still feels weird to even consider the possibility of Sephiroth losing to Sonic, but that's probably just from my knowledge of contest history.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2126-tournament-semifinal-mario-vs-solid-snake

This was Solid Snake's first Final Four appearance. Nobody expected him to win. We just hoped he'd look respectable, and he mostly accomplished that. He held Mario under 54% for the early part of the match, and then the day vote allowed Mario to go up a few percentage points by the end.

Not convinced Seph was the weakest in 18 at all. And yes, he has the most new things going for him.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2127-tournament-semifinal-crono-vs-mega-man

People tried really hard to get Mega Man X pictures for this match. I think someone managed to sneak X into the background of one pic or something, but CJayC held firm to just MM Classic pics despite saying he represents all versions of the character, which was his rationale for not allowing X into the contest.

I mention this because there isn't much else to say about this match. Crono got out to a fast start and was never really threatened despite the relatively close final margin. In fact, from 9 hours in until the end of the match, the percentage didn't deviate more than a tenth from the final margin. That's what happens when you have two strong characters with near identical trends!

Anyway, after this result, everyone knew Mario had it in the bag. The real question was how much did he need to win by to entertain the possibility of him beating Sephiroth in the Tournament of Champions.

I think this is the picture you are referencing. X isn't in it, but the background is the opening of Mega Man X, with X's health bar even visible.