Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1383

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6085-best-game-ever-day-9-okami-vs-warcraft-iii

No real surprise here. Okami's performance fell in line with the Oracle average. We trusted this game, and we no longer trusted Blizzard. Simple as that.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6086-best-game-ever-day-9-final-fantasy-ix-vs-kingdom-hearts

It's rare to get a big SFF match round 1 that's not a predictable beatdown. FFIX had 57% of Guru picks, but Kingdom Hearts was the Oracle favorite by the time of the match. KH1 also had 60% of overall brackets. It felt like this was the series' time to finally score a win against big brother.

This match was tied at the freeze. Then they went back and forth for a little while, but the dead zone naturally favored FFIX. KH1 recovered a bit with the morning vote, but we kept waiting for that classic KH ASV.

But it never came. If there was any match that proved that real trends were essentially dead, it was this one. KH has one of the best ASVs and FFIX has one of the worst, and yet KH1 couldn't break through.

I wonder if KH1 wins this match if it's held in GotD because IX seems to have boosted in the years since then.

Leonhart4 posted...

KH has one of the best ASVs

Trends are dead, but do you think it would still have that if it existed?

Well, trends don't determine the match. They only explain it. Theoretically, with our old trends, FFIX would've had a big lead and KH1 would've sliced through it only to fall just short.

With our old vote totals though? I think higher vote totals favors certain games and lower vote totals favors others. FFIX seems to have benefited from our vote totals dropping. Is that a false correlation though? There's no way of knowing.

I mean that if we continued to have these kind of trends, I would think KH would slowly stop having the same trends, or at least to a smaller degree. I don't think it's as big with kids as it used to me.

We do still have geographical trends of course but they are not highlighted as commonly.

Well, I don't think FF games (VII aside) would stop having bad day votes precisely for that reason. They're stronger in Europe than America, and KH is still stronger in America than Europe.

ctesjbuvf posted...

I mean that if we continued to have these kind of trends, I would think KH would slowly stop having the same trends, or at least to a smaller degree. I don't think it's as big with kids as it used to me.

We do still have geographical trends of course but they are not highlighted as commonly.

probably a combination of the overall age of the board shifting way older and the fact that KH was two generations away at that point

Leonhart4 posted...

I wonder if KH1 wins this match if it's held in GotD

I doubt it unless you think 2010 KOTOR is also competitive with KH1. FF9 has definitely benefited from the site shifts.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4118-west-division-round-1-marvel-vs-capcom-2-vs-new-super-mario

This was not a good contest for Mario or the Wii, so when you combine them into one entry, it leads to an upset that virtually nobody on B8 was upset about. NSMBWii had a 57% Oracle average and was an overwhelming Guru favorite, but this was pretty close to a 50/50 match overall.

It looked like Mario was going to win fairly easily early on, but about an hour in, MvC2 started having occasional big updates. Mario was still gaining, but every few updates, MvC2 would make a big cut. As such, Mario couldn't get the lead over 400 votes.

Then the California ASV struck again, and MvC2 took over and ended up winning by over 1600 votes, which is a crazy swing for a 12-hour match. There were some rallies out there, too, but the vote totals for this match weren't any higher than normal, so I'm not sure how much it impacted the final result.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4119-west-division-round-1-paper-mario-vs-katamari-damacy

While most Mario games struggled, the Paper Mario games did pretty well. It surpassed its Oracle expectations by almost 9% here. It was already a big favorite against World of Warcraft next round, and this performance cemented that status.

Whoops, got the contests mixed up again

Oh well I'll do 2015 Games at midnight

I wonder how far off Paper Mario is from SMRPG these days

pjbasis posted...

I wonder how far off Paper Mario is from SMRPG these days

Well, fortunately they shared a common opponent in 2015! Of course, it's possible SMRPG was already bandwagoning by the time it hit RE4, but it projects a 63.42% victory for SMRPG.

Who knows how much the remake has helped it, but it couldn't hurt!

Remake was of Thousand Year Door, not PM64. Not sure which is the stronger of those two, but yeah, the remake probably does help.

I feel like TTYD gets talked up more but I'm not sure if that converts into contest strength.

I meant the SMRPG remake

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6087-best-game-ever-day-10-xenoblade-chronicles-vs-donkey-kong

This was considered the weakest overall fourpack in the contest. All four games had supporters, but Xenoblade was the overall favorite to advance. 75% of Gurus picked it to win this match.

DKC2 was the NRT winner for Games 2009 and was put into a bad spot against GoldenEye, SMRPG, and RE2, where it got under 10% of the vote. As such, expectations for it were low pre-contest. While it was still the underdog by match time, it did have more support in the Oracle.

The match became the closest wire-to-wire 24-hour match ever, with neither game ever holding a lead of more than 290 votes. DKC2 led for the first four hours, Xenoblade led for the next eight and a half hours, and then DKC2 led the rest of the way. There were only three total lead changes after the freeze, which is rare for a match this close, but it was still pretty dramatic.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6088-best-game-ever-day-10-fire-emblem-awakening-vs-super-mario

This match was considered a true test of "It's freakin' MARIO" when it comes to the Nintendo hierarchy. Fire Emblem was the Guru favorite, but it only had 55% of picks (compared to 65% overall). The Oracle average was slightly above 51% for Awakening.

It's rare for such a debated match to turn out to be a doubling, but it can happen when it's two things we've never seen before. After Xenoblade's loss, Awakening established itself as the favorite to win next round.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6089-best-game-ever-day-10-banjo-kazooie-vs-baldurs-gate-ii

Baldur's Gate II showed off its wild trends again. Banjo-Kazooie had 73% at the freeze and 68% at the end of the first hour. If you picked BK to beat SOTN next round, you were feeling pretty good an hour in, but not so much by the end.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6090-best-game-ever-day-10-castlevania-sotn-vs-phoenix-wright

SOTN's Oracle average for this match was only 64% for some reason. Maybe people saw PW1's performance against Skyrim and thought T&T wouldn't be too far off. We saw FFIX triple T&T in GotD, so maybe this was a lack of faith in SOTN's strength, which had been decent but not elite in 2004 and 2009. Either way, it removed any doubt that it was winning three matches this contest.

Also this has to be the record for most total characters in a poll title in a one-on-one match.

Baldur's Gate 3 also had a wild swing in the GotY polls. Baldur's Gate in general probably has the worst early vote I can remember outside of FF7 in its heydey.

Leonhart4 posted...

If you picked BK to beat SOTN next round, you were feeling pretty good an hour in

sigh

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4120-west-division-round-1-world-of-warcraft-vs-animal-crossing

If there was a game that theoretically should've gotten a boost from the concept of Game of the Decade, it should've been World of Warcraft. However, our general distaste for MMOs and Blizzard's waning popularity didn't do it any favors.

Fun fact: This is the worst performance ever for a game with a 90%+ prediction percentage.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6091-best-game-ever-day-11-zelda-a-link-to-the-past-vs-cave-story

Ocarina of Time put up the biggest blowout of the contest, and Link to the Past put up the second biggest. The two biggest Zelda games were looking pretty good out of the gate this contest.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6092-best-game-ever-day-11-deus-ex-vs-final-fantasy-iv

Deus Ex fans didn't get to complain about it not winning by enough this year. Final Fantasy IV had a set path here, but at least Allen's favorite game got to win a match.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4121-west-division-round-1-metal-gear-solid-4-vs-assassins-creed

After a strong performance in 2009, opinions were split on whether MGS4 could repeat it a year later, but it was the Guru favorite to win the division. The Oracle average for this match was a doubling. MGS4 fell short of the mark by a few percent, sowing the seeds of doubt about what it would do.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6093-best-game-ever-day-11-metal-gear-solid-v-vs-perfect-dark

MGSV was one of the newest games in the bracket. That may have played a factor here in its performance, but based on GotD2, it didn't end up mattering that much.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6094-best-game-ever-day-11-dark-souls-vs-civilization-v

On the other hand, Dark Souls was impressive here. MGSV was the favorite pre-contest, but Dark Souls felt like the favorite after this.

Leonhart4 posted...

MGSV was the favorite pre-contest,

This line confused me until I remembered that Dark Souls/MGS5 got an unnecessary rematch in 2020, and I was mixing up my contests.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4122-west-division-round-1-diablo-ii-vs-eternal-darkness

Diablo II put up a dominant performance here, but many chalked it up to Eternal Darkness likely being one of the weakest games in the bracket. I don't think this got many people thinking it could beat MGS4 next round.

REmake should have been eligible for this contest man.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6095-best-game-ever-day-12-super-metroid-vs-call-of-duty-4

It was hard to get a good read on Super Metroid in 2004 since it got tripled by LttP in the second round. It got hidden behind LFF and SFF in 2009 as well, but it looked unimpressive barely beating out Super Mario Kart twice before getting stomped by LttP again.

So when Super Metroid quadrupled Call of Duty 4 (the Oracle average was only a doubling), we all took notice. While it's likely CoD4 dropped since its last appearance in GotD, it still got 31% on Melee back then. This was definitely a stronger Super Metroid than we saw last time.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6096-best-game-ever-day-12-super-mario-galaxy-vs-dragon-age

Super Mario Galaxy basically did what it was expected to do based on Game of the Decade (since both of these games faced Twilight Princess). The problem was that Super Metroid massively exceeded expectations. Mario Galaxy was the Guru favorite, but it seemed like it would need to invoke the hierarchy to win now.

I sometimes wonder how strong Super Mario Kart was at its peak. Perhaps it was a weaker SM, but SMK still went toe to toe against it.

Galaxy was the guru favorite over Super Metroid? wild

pjbasis posted...

Galaxy was the guru favorite over Super Metroid? wild

It was a lack of faith in Super Metroid more than anything else.

Yeah I don't think the idea that Super Mario Galaxy would beat the original Super Mario Kart decisively was that wild.

Hell, maybe the original Super Mario Kart is actually among the elites on this site.

If only a good Mario Kart could ever make a one-on-one contest

Leonhart4 posted...

If only a good Mario Kart could ever make a one-on-one contest

Wow, what did MK8 do to you?

I meant good as in contest strength

MK8 was never going to be on SMK's or MK64's tier

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Hell, maybe the original Super Mario Kart is actually among the elites on this site.

I don't know man.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3482-division-3-round-2-s-metroid-s-mario-kart-zelda-lttp-dk

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6158-best-game-ever-day-30-round-3-super-metroid-vs-zelda-majoras
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6168-best-game-ever-day-35-division-vi-final-zelda-a-link-to-the

Something happened in those six years. Maybe Super Metroid boosting + the top of the field weakening in general, bringing LTTP closer. Super Mario Kart is probably decently strong but I don't think it's dueling with Majora's Mask.

I do wonder how Super Metroid would've done directly against LttP in 2015. It'd be kinda wild if it managed to resist SFF after getting pulverized by it twice.

Super Metroid probably has a better matchup against Majora than LTTP. I imagine it's easier to resist SFF when you're not against another 2D game on the same system. Losing to MM, which then seemed to reverse SFF LTTP if anything, likely ended up making Super Metroid look better in the long run.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4123-west-division-round-1-metal-gear-solid-2-vs-banjo-tooie

Now it was MGS2's turn to show what it could do. People expected Banjo-Tooie to have a modicum of strength, so this looked like a good performance at first. But as we'd find out next round, people apparently only care about the first game.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6097-best-game-ever-day-12-bloodborne-vs-final-fantasy-xii

I wonder how this one goes now, considering Bloodborne was able to put up 45% on FFXII despite being less than a year old at the time. It definitely got stronger between this and GotD2.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6098-best-game-ever-day-12-zelda-majoras-mask-vs-valkyria

Majora's Mask demonstrated that the strength it showed in winning GotD was no fluke. This result basically fell in line with the X-Stats from that contest.

Bloodborne wins that now I think

I think it's plausible that Super Metroid gets SFFed hard by Link to the Past but not Majora's Mask.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4124-west-division-round-1-shadow-of-the-colossus-vs-the-sims

The Oracle average for this match was only 61% for SotC, so it exceeded expectations by quite a bit. Still, nobody thought The Sims could beat Banjo-Tooie, so most weren't worried about it beating MGS2 next round...yet.

Bloodborne looked pretty good in 2015, although it did get those random rallies to pad its numbers.

Tooie really did end up being super weak, huh.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6099-best-game-ever-day-13-grand-theft-auto-v-vs-shenmue

This is probably the only notable video game website in existence where this margin of victory is even possible, and that's why GameFAQs is the best. GTAV probably gets at least 80% anywhere else. Also Allen somehow had GTAV winning this division, demonstrating that just running these contests doesn't give you any notable advantages!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6100-best-game-ever-day-13-oblivion-vs-super-mario-rpg

This was a big round one match because the winner was likely to win three matches. Mario RPG had 75% of Guru brackets and 51% of brackets overall. It had 87 of 95 Oracle pickers by the time the match rolled around, and it won fairly easily. At the time, most of us had no idea what we had just unleashed, but we'd find out soon enough.

Damn that makes Oblivion look kinda beastly

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4125-northwest-division-round-1-zelda-majoras-mask-vs-wii-sports

It was hard to glean anything from this result because it was an SFF match against Wii Sports, but Majora did outdo the Oracle average by 3% here, so it was off to a good start.

pjbasis posted...

Damn that makes Oblivion look kinda beastly

It does but I would never take Oblivion over RE4 in a match, even though SMRPG did better 1 v 1 against RE4. Either something weird happened or SMRPG picked up a mild bandwagon after it won a few matches.

If Geralt could pick up a bandwagon after his three wins in 2018, as the division's 1-seed with a presumable plurality of sitewide picks to advance at least as far as divisional finals, then why wouldn't Super Mario RPG have done the same at the same point? That's how I feel about the matter, anyways - that SMRPG didn't need to have any Geralt-style barnburners to bandwagon given how few casuals even expected it to beat 1-seed GTAV, and I don't know what an alternate explanation would be for how clearly off Auron's showing against Geralt was compared to the former's other 2018 results, both before and after that match.

It definitely picked up some bandwagon. Beating big rockstar games does that.

Super Mario RPG, being essentially the bastard son of mainstream Nintendo and Final Fantasy, is probably one of the more volatile upper-midcard games in the field as it is. There probably is a little bit of a bandwagon in there, but I also don't think Oblivion is that too far off from RE4 either.

It's a real shame that we couldn't get Street Fighter II in the other end of the bracket to see how it would compare, given that it's juuuuuuust under SMRPG's equal.