Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1384

Retrospectives for 2026:

Years - 5/2
Series - 7/2
Character Battle IX - 7/9
Character Battle V - 9/12
Character Battle X - 10/19
Rivals - 11/3

~*creativename's contest site*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analyses*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Main_Page

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Closest Wire-To-Wire Matches*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Closest_Wire-to-Wire_Matches

~*All-Time Guru List*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/All_Time_Guru_Rankings

~*Most Surprising Results*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Most_Surprising_Results

~*Contest Histories*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's extrapolated percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Perhaps it's a little weird having what feels like a 90s game winning, but whatever.

It was a game from the 80s, on a console from the 80s, released in Japan in the 80s, winning best game of the 1990s!?

-Someone complaining about SMB3

If only Mario 3 had a chance at winning a 90s Game of the Decade

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4162-northwest-division-round-2-mario-kart-wii-vs-pokemon-crystal

The Oracle average was about a doubling, so G/S/C surpassed expectations, but it was still an SFF match. It was hard to say who was the favorite headed into the showdown against Majora now.

Leonhart4 posted...

If only Mario 3 had a chance at winning a 90s Game of the Decade

put it up against Chrono Trigger and let some Mario/Crono magic happen cheating and then we bandwagon our way past a weakened Ocarina that already beat FFVII.

The only real flaw in this plan is that there are two stronger mario games in the same bracket...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6161-best-game-ever-day-32-round-3-metal-gear-solid-vs-shadow-of

Not much to say about this one. MGS1 essentially hit the Oracle average and there wasn't much movement in percentage after the freeze.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4163-northwest-division-round-2-zelda-wind-waker-vs-assassins

Wind Waker had nearly 70% at the freeze, and was still at nearly 64% at the end of the first hour. AC2 gradually bled it down from there. The Oracle average was a little over 63% for Wind Waker, so this was considered a bad showing. Also what a difference five years makes. Assassin's Creed went from 40% on Wind Waker in 2010 to 20% on Final Fantasy VI in 2015.

It turns out completely destroying what the series' story was building up to and entire justification for going back in time is a bad idea! Who'da thunk? (Not the Ubisoft executives, that's for sure.)

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6162-best-game-ever-day-32-round-3-metal-gear-solid-3-vs-mass

Metal Gear Solid 3 winning wasn't a surprise. It had 71% of Guru picks, as opposed to 22% for Mass Effect 2, and it had twice as many Oracle picks. However, the average was only 50.86% and nobody picked MGS3 to get more than 56% here. This was considered a major flop for Mass Effect 2, but it also showed how much MGS3 had been negatively impacted by the rallies in the previous round.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4164-northwest-division-round-2-paper-mario-tyd-vs-oblivion

End of round two! This was a solid performance for Oblivion, but it probably wasn't good enough to believe it could upset Wind Waker next round.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6163-best-game-ever-day-33-division-i-final-chrono-trigger-vs

The Oracle average for Chrono Trigger was just short of 60% here. At the freeze, it had nearly 57% of the vote, and then it jumped up a full 2% on the next update. Then it was over 60% and rising during the Nintendo Power Hour, when Melee should be near its strongest.

Then the true villain of Games 2015 emerged when Melee started rallying about 30 minutes into the match. We barely got time to enjoy and appreciate what Chrono Trigger was doing before the inferiority complex of the Melee fanbase kicked in.

At one point, Allen released the voter breakdown between registered users and non-registered users, and I believe Chrono Trigger had 62-63% of the vote with registered users (I forget the exact number. I'm sure someone like TRE has the post saved somewhere). This is what we missed out on. That was a championship winning performance.

Undertale vs. Mass Effect 3: 29.49% / 70.51%
Fallout 3 vs. Undertale: 75.67% / 24.33%
Undertale vs. Super Mario World: 19.28% / 80.72%
Pokemon Red/Blue vs. Undertale: 76.30% / 23.70%
Undertale vs. Super Mario 64: 26.21% / 73.79%
Smash Bros. Melee vs. Undertale: 69.59% / 30.41%
Undertale vs. Zelda: Ocarina of Time: 33.44% / 66.56%

Smash Bros. Melee vs. Portal: 70.37% / 29.63%
Smash Bros. Melee vs. Pokemon Gold/Silver: 57.72% / 42.28%
Smash Bros. Melee vs. Kingdom Hearts II: 59.51% / 40.49%
Chrono Trigger vs. Smash Bros. Melee: 63.28% / 36.72%
Smash Bros. Melee vs. Final Fantasy VII: 42.92% / 57.08%

IIRC Nintendo tended to do better with registered voters so these numbers may still overrated SSBM compared to Chrono Trigger. At the very least, there's little reason to believe registered voters overrate Chrono Trigger.

CT was actually higher than I thought!

And yeah, Nintendo games usually had a higher percentage with registered users than the overall percentage.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4165-north-division-round-3-fallout-3-vs-batman-arkham-asylum

The Oracle average was about 60% for Fallout 3, so Arkham Asylum did a little better than expected. Batman was 24th in the final X-Stats, too, so it turned out to be decently strong.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6164-best-game-ever-day-33-division-ii-final-final-fantasy-vi-vs

The entire basis for setting this match up is this poll:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5728-all-of-the-other-final-fantasy-games-aside-which-is-better

If there's any poll that demonstrates the difference between a POTD and a contest match, it's that one because virtually nobody thought FFVI could repeat that performance in an actual contest.

And they were right. FFVI kept it close early, but it was no match for the FFVII rise to heaven. VII had looked pretty good this contest. Too bad it wouldn't end up meaning anything.

The "(aka Final Fantasy III)" sure makes a big difference.

But more seriously, it is fascinating how much of a difference there is.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4166-north-division-round-3-uncharted-2-vs-halo

The Halo day vote came out in full force for this one. Uncharted 2 actually had the lead at the end of the first hour. Halo immediately won the next update by 60 votes and it left Uncharted 2 in the dust from there.

TeamRocketElite posted...

But more seriously, it is fascinating how much of a difference there is.

there's like a 40000 vote difference so that's something

pjbasis posted...

there's like a 40000 vote difference so that's something

Sure, but theoretically, it shouldn't change the result that much because you're still pulling from the same pool.

idk I bet theres a different pool of people that vote for contests only

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6165-best-game-ever-day-34-division-iii-final-pokemon-red-blue-vs

It was nice of Allen to host another site's match on ours even if the result was completely predictable.

FUN has gone too far.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4167-northeast-division-round-3-metroid-prime-vs-okami

Okami breaks 40% in defeat once again. I do wonder if the picture hurt Prime a bit since it was so dark and you could barely see anything.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6166-best-game-ever-day-34-division-iv-final-skyrim-vs-super

Not much to say about this one. Skyrim got hurt by rally spillover all contest, and so it probably lost to Mario 64 worse than it otherwise would have.

not bad against the #5 game of the site

Leonhart4 posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6165-best-game-ever-day-34-division-iii-final-pokemon-red-blue-vs

It was nice of Allen to host another site's match on ours even if the result was completely predictable.

I actually think RBY had a chance to win this if the fanbase didn't feel like declaring themselves the absolute worst on this day. It definitely had the chance to do so. Bulbapedia tweeted, Matsuda tweeted, and the fanbase decides to do their anti-gen I nonsense and prove they weren't a tad better than the ones they refer to as "genwunners".

pjbasis posted...

not bad against the #5 game of the site

Yeah that sounds a bit too high.

what do you have above it? a ZELDA game? *scoff*

RBY had a chance at winning there, but Melee was the real rally test. Just going by votals, that was not an easy win.

pjbasis posted...

what do you have above it? a ZELDA game? *scoff*

Five of them

Other than about 3 Zelda games; Chrono Trigger, RBY, World and probably FFVII too.

I could see Mario 64 upsetting LttP. I think it'd be the favorite over Majora, but I could see that going either way too. Super Metroid did almost beat MM, after all.

BotW and OoT are the only sure winners. What's the fifth Zelda? Tears of the Kingdom? I think SM64 wins that, but I can see why someone would predict otherwise.

Going through Skyrim in GotD and BGE, what's SM64 predicted to get on BotW?

I don't see 64 not beating every other Mario game, unfort

At least in 2015, both 3 and World were ahead of it. You would have to argue that had changed since then, which you probably can, but you called it #5 based on a match that year in which it slightly overperformed. ALttP is also well ahead. Again, you would have to argue a site shift.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4168-northeast-division-round-3-god-of-war-vs-half-life-2

This felt like a good performance for Half-Life 2, especially in the wake of Prime's so-so showing on Okami. It looked like we were in for a good match next round.

ctesjbuvf posted...

At least in 2015, both 3 and World were ahead of it.

by that much that 64 > them isn't reasonable without a shift?

I think World and 64 is probably a tossup but I'd favor World. I think they both beat 3, unfortunately.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4169-east-division-round-3-smash-bros-melee-vs-call-of-duty-4

The Oracle average was a doubling and Melee nearly put up 70% here. It was at nearly 77% at the freeze and nearly 74% at the end of the Power Hour, so it dropped quite a bit from there. This was its final chance to impress headed into the showdown of the century of the decade.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6167-best-game-ever-day-35-division-v-final-zelda-ocarina-of-time

Oops, did these in the wrong order! Either way, the Oracle average for OoT was about 65% here, so it overperformed here after two straight rounds of underperforming.

MacArrowny posted...

What's the fifth Zelda? Tears of the Kingdom? I think SM64 wins that, but I can see why someone would predict otherwise.

TotK couldn't even win its own GotY poll, though. Differing voterbases aside, it feels like a long leap from there to outright beating Mario 64, and yet it does still make sense on paper that TotK would be that strong here.

MacArrowny posted...

Going through Skyrim in GotD and BGE, what's SM64 predicted to get on BotW?

Should be 50.95% if I did the math here (mainly, utilized creativename's x-stat calculator) correctly.

ctesjbuvf posted...

At least in 2015, both 3 and World were ahead of it. You would have to argue that had changed since then, which you probably can, but you called it #5 based on a match that year in which it slightly overperformed.

Why would you have to argue that the indirect Mario hierarchy has changed since 2015? Why couldn't 64 have already been ahead of World and especially 3 that year? It's not like we have fully reliable reads on World or especially on 3 in 2015 to confidently make that call either way - and sure, I have my own opinion, but that's all it is. There's a reason (or, well, probably a few reasons) Ngamer's adjusted x-stats put the three Marios just about on par with each other.

...actually, in as much as we have any indicator of 3's standing relative to 64 that year, it skews in the opposite direction. 3 was looking set to soundly lose to RBY even before rallies rendered that match unrecognizable, and 64 fared far better than 3 against RBY in a bonus match with a very similar votal. There're good reasons not to grant either result any credence, I acknowledge - but if you altogether discount both data points, then there simply isn't any indicator of any relevance or reliability at all either way as to how 3 compared to 64 (or to most other games, Mario or otherwise).

Pokémon could have won that match if the fans weren’t morons.

A bunch of them counter rallied because they hate the first gen. To this day I will never understand that whole anti gen 1 thing. I think the games are amazing.

MetalmindStats posted...

...actually, in as much as we have any indicator of 3's standing relative to 64 that year, it skews in the opposite direction.

No that is exactly what didn't happen. 3 was looking to finish a good bit better than 64 against the same opponent. You are right that those results are not the most reliable, but I did not discount them, I looked at them.

UltimaterializerX posted...

To this day I will never understand that whole anti gen 1 thing. I think the games are amazing.

They are! But so are most other gens, and Game Freak treats Gen 1 as their favorite while the others get scraps most of the time.

The fans are morons for not supporting RBY regardless.

They treat it as their favorites because they have the most popular Pokemon. Basically fans complaining Musharna, Skuntank and Bounsweet don't get the same attention as Charizard, Mewtwo and Pikachu when the latter have proven again and again to pull in more money from a wider crowd. I can't think of anything else that gets hate for the same thing. Even if we humor it, the same company you're annoyed with made all the games. It just makes 0 sense.

You can't really use Skyrim to compare Mario 64 and Breath of the Wild because Skyrim is negatively impacted by rallies in 2015 and positively impacted by rallies in 2020.

ctesjbuvf posted...

No that is exactly what didn't happen. 3 was looking to finish a good bit better than 64 against the same opponent. You are right that those results are not the most reliable, but I did not discount them, I looked at them.

Ah, I misinterpreted your post, my bad. That does at least bring in a data-rooted argument for 3 > 64, and with it, a reasonable disagreement where I now understand your stance, thank you. As far as that specific comparison goes, then, here's my stance:

At 13:10 (the update at which Fallout 3's lead over Undertale peaked) Mario 3 had 44.27% on RBY, in a match with 34419 votes through that point. At 13:10 in RBY v Mario 64, Mario 64 had 42.45% on RBY, in a match with 54894 votes through that point.

(At 13:35, which iirc was KP's guess for the last update before Undertale's rallies completely took over against Fallout 3 [but please correct me if I'm wrong or if you never said that, KP], Mario 3 had 44.18% on RBY, in a match with 35669 votes through that point. At 13:35 in RBY v Mario 64, Mario 64 had 42.44% on RBY, in a match with 55998 votes through that point.)

Mario 3 v RBY ended with Mario 3 at 37.33% on RBY, in a match with 78653 votes. RBY v Mario 64 ended with Mario 64 at 42.33% on RBY, in a match with 77120 votes.

Hence, the two matches ended with total vote counts within a few percentage points, whereas their respective total vote counts were very, very off at 13:10 (and 13:35). My stance is that this detail renders their final results a more reasonable comparison than their pre-rally takeover results, and that the Undertale voters who turned out en masse only in the last ~45% back in Round 2 mostly were already around for the bonus matches' opening hours.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6168-best-game-ever-day-35-division-vi-final-zelda-a-link-to-the

We had a day where three out of the four poll options were Zelda games. Majora's Mask was clearly benefiting from the rally overflow early because it had 55% at the freeze. Its lead peaked at about 600 votes an hour and a half in, and then Link to the Past took over. It took the lead at the seven hour mark and used the day vote to pull away. This is probably a 55/45 match without the rally overflow.

MetalmindStats posted...

Ah, I misinterpreted your post, my bad. That does at least bring in a data-rooted argument for 3 > 64, and with it, a reasonable disagreement where I now understand your stance, thank you. As far as that specific comparison goes, then, here's my stance:

At 13:10 (the update at which Fallout 3's lead over Undertale peaked) Mario 3 had 44.27% on RBY, in a match with 34419 votes through that point. At 13:10 in RBY v Mario 64, Mario 64 had 42.45% on RBY, in a match with 54894 votes through that point.

(At 13:35, which iirc was KP's guess for the last update before Undertale's rallies completely took over against Fallout 3 [but please correct me if I'm wrong or if you never said that, KP], Mario 3 had 44.18% on RBY, in a match with 35669 votes through that point. At 13:35 in RBY v Mario 64, Mario 64 had 42.44% on RBY, in a match with 55998 votes through that point.)

Mario 3 v RBY ended with Mario 3 at 37.33% on RBY, in a match with 78653 votes. RBY v Mario 64 ended with Mario 64 at 42.33% on RBY, in a match with 77120 votes.

Hence, the two matches ended with total vote counts within a few percentage points, whereas their respective total vote counts were very, very off at 13:10 (and 13:35). My stance is that this detail renders their final results a more reasonable comparison than their pre-rally takeover results, and that the Undertale voters who turned out en masse only in the last ~45% back in Round 2 mostly were already around for the bonus matches' opening hours.

It's a decent analysis, but it seems to me as if the Undertale rally in r2 was already there from the start or at least very close to the start. Looking at the vote totals compared to other round 2 matches both earlier and later, they are higher on this day, also early on. SMB3 bled percentage basically the whole day while 64 was pretty consistent. There is no reason to think they have different trends (in particular because we have almost no trends anymore), so it seems to me as if SMB3 would do a bit better against the same opponent.
There is unfortunately no reason to believe 3 is ahead of World anymore. It was close in 2009 and then everything SNES looked beastly in 2015. That's my reason for thinking it was pretty clearly World > 3 > 64 at least at the time. There are enough uncertainties thst I didn't initially mention 3 as well while naming games ahead of 64, but it seems like it was. I feel pretty confident placing OoT, CT, RBY, ALttP, World and probably also FFVII and 3 ahead of it. Again, at least at the time. BotW to me is the biggest uncertainy but the safe bet is that it can challange several of the mentioned games. I would also not feel confident picking 64 over Majora.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4170-east-division-round-3-pokemon-platinum-vs-smash-bros-brawl

Like Melee, the Oracle average for Brawl was a doubling, but it didn't have a massive drop after the early vote. It did have the double advantage of an SFF match and a day match, but Brawl looked better headed into the match of the century of the decade.

As a pure casual, I’ll never get the lolgenwun thing. Newer Pokémon don’t get the attention because a lot of the designs are uninspired. But the stuff that is really good? Hell yeah.